Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[Heartbreaker]

Talk about a shocking development. Maybe it's just a short term thing?

There was similar speculating about the 4070 Ti having a fake MSRP with a few token cards, but it has also been available at it's MSRP essentially continuously.

Lack of miners and scalpers, really changes the market.

 

[In2Photos]

There was similar speculating about the 4070 Ti having a fake MSRP with a few token cards, but it has also been available at it's MSRP essentially continuously.

Lack of miners and scalpers, really changes the market.

It's not just miners and scalpers, gamers aren't buying them either. The cards launched at 9am EST, 6 hours ago. And you can still buy them, 13 different models on Newegg right now. When was the last time that has happened?

 

[Heartbreaker]

It's not just miners and scalpers, gamers aren't buying them either. The cards launched at 9am EST, 6 hours ago. And you can still buy them, 13 different models on Newegg right now. When was the last time that has happened?

Every single card launched since mining imploded.

 

[In2Photos]

Every single card launched since mining imploded.

4090 didn't have that problem, 7900 XTX didn't have that problem. They sold out immediately, just like always.

 

[Heartbreaker]

4090 didn't have that problem, 7900 XTX didn't have that problem. They sold out immediately, just like always.

My mistake, I thought they lasted out the first day.

What is the correct amount of time stock should last for a product to be success?

 

[In2Photos]

My mistake, I thought they lasted out the first day.

What is the correct amount of time stock should last for a product to be success?

Product success is measured long term. Somebody once said there are no bad products only bad prices. When these cards don't sell out on launch day it's because people don't see enough value in it. the RX 7900XT had the same issue.

 

[Mopetar]

You can't use first day availability to draw too many conclusions other than the relative amount of supply and demand at those prices.

If you sold 1 million cards on launch day it's obviously a successful product. Of course if you have 2 million in the channel and only sold half of the available stock are we to believe it's a failure or more or a failure than another product which sold 100% of the 100,000 available units?

 

[Aapje]

You can't use first day availability to draw too many conclusions other than the relative amount of supply and demand at those prices.

If you sold 1 million cards on launch day it's obviously a successful product. Of course if you have 2 million in the channel and only sold half of the available stock are we to believe it's a failure or more or a failure than another product which sold 100% of the 100,000 available units?

That reasoning is only correct if the supply is just random, which it of course isn't. Assuming that Nvidia has fairly similar considerations for each product and each generation, then if they think that a certain number of launch cards is reasonable for both card A and card B, but card A sells out quickly, but not B, then card B will generally be less popular than they expected.

There is a reason why movie companies really care about the opening weekend box office. It is actually a pretty good indication of how the movie will do later on.

 

[Mopetar]

Movies and GPUs aren't the same to where I would consider it reasonable to make the inference you have. The vast majority of sales of a GPU will take place outside of the initial launch period. The same is true of practically any hardware because there's less of a constraint on how many people can see a movie as you can add extra showings and additional screens if it proves wildly popular.

Hardware products that aren't popular at launch can become more so later as the price changes or other factors make them more attractive. Similarly a popular card that looks like it will sell well can become considerably less so if something else blows it out of the water. Similarly a launch might be lackluster just because people are waiting for a new CPU to launch before buying a GPU to go with it. There's also a used market in GPUs that competes with new sales.

 

[Aapje]

Movies and GPUs aren't the same to where I would consider it reasonable to make the inference you have. The vast majority of sales of a GPU will take place outside of the initial launch period.

Yet pollers do not ask the majority of voters what they vote for, but their polling still tends to give a decent indication of how voting will go.

Hardware products that aren't popular at launch can become more so later as the price changes or other factors make them more attractive. Similarly a popular card that looks like it will sell well can become considerably less so if something else blows it out of the water. Similarly a launch might be lackluster just because people are waiting for a new CPU to launch before buying a GPU to go with it.

I think that anyone agrees that it would be more popular at a lower price, so what you say is not actually a rebuttal. The claim is that at the current price and current market conditions, this card does not seem all that popular and this will probably remain the case.

And the argument that people are waiting for a better CPU doesn't make sense now that the 7800X3D has just been released. There is no highly anticipated CPU on the horizon.

My own impression is that this is likely going to be the best or least bad card in Nvidia's line-up, unless Nvidia comes out with a 12 GB card lower in the stack with better price/performance, which the rumors suggest will not happen. Still, the 4070 is a bit of a toss-up compared to the upper tier RDNA2 cards, which have more memory, but are less efficient. It's not a great look when the previous gen is competitive with the new gen.

There's also a used market in GPUs that competes with new sales.

The biggest competition for new cards is presumably the option to keep the existing card, since many people keep card for multiple generations and now seemingly more than ever. Without a decent improvement in price/performance, there is little reason for many to upgrade.

 

[coercitiv]

Hardware products that aren't popular at launch can become more so later as the price changes or other factors make them more attractive.

Can and will are two different things. Initial sales are a good indicator for (relative) demand while other factors such as price and competition remain steady. There's no going around that.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Can and will are two different things. Initial sales are a good indicator for (relative) demand while other factors such as price and competition remain steady. There's no going around that.

Sure if you know initial sales number compared to previous initial sales numbers.

But the only thing known is if/when they sell out...

It's like judging Apple success by the length of line ups for a new iPhone. iPhone lineups have largely disappeared but iPhone success hasn't.

Also whichever outcome happens, there is a contingent on this forum that will view it negatively either way.

Sells out fast: Inadequate stocks from (purely made up) reasons: manufacturing issues, some kind of marketing ploy to hype it going out of stocks, holding back supply to sell old cards...

Doesn't sell out: Card is a failure that the consumer has no interest in.

 

[coercitiv]

It's like judging Apple success by the length of line ups for a new iPhone. iPhone lineups have largely disappeared but iPhone success hasn't.

The line ups for the iPhone have not disappeared, they were simply moved online where they're much easier to handle. Out of sight, and apparently out of mind.

 

[Heartbreaker]

The line ups for the iPhone have not disappeared, they were simply moved online where they're much easier to handle. Out of sight, and apparently out of mind.

They could have moved online MANY years sooner. The lines were the kind of measure of excitement that people see in first day sellouts of GPUs. Neither is necessary for a very successful product.

 

[Mopetar]

Yet pollers do not ask the majority of voters what they vote for, but their polling still tends to give a decent indication of how voting will go.

Polling is a completely different form of statistical analysis and has nothing to do with predictions of sales based on the first week. It's even more disconnected than your previous example of using the first week of a film.

I think that anyone agrees that it would be more popular at a lower price, so what you say is not actually a rebuttal.

Actually it is. GPUs are physical products and they remain on shelves until sold. We have seen companies use price cuts (even early in a product's cycle) to increase sales.

You practically never see a theater show a new release at a lower price than other films to try to get more people to see it. There are things like matinees or even theaters that show older films at reduced prices, but if a new Marvel film isn't showing well, it'll just get pulled from screens to make room for something else.

This illustrates another reason why the comparison between films and GPUs is a bad one. The two products are different in so many ways.

And the argument that people are waiting for a better CPU doesn't make sense now that the 7800X3D has just been released. There is no highly anticipated CPU on the horizon.

My argument was not specific to this generation or this exact point in time, rather it is meant to show that a GPU's sales may be influenced by the availability of other hardware. You seem to agree that this could be possible and have pointed out one such example of a hardware component that some people may have been waiting for.

People might even change purchasing decisions for hardware based on rumors of availability or performance. No one puts off seeing a film they want to because a better one might come out in two months. They just go to both of them.[/quote][/QUOTE]

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Sure if you know initial sales number compared to previous initial sales numbers.

But the only thing known is if/when they sell out...

It's like judging Apple success by the length of line ups for a new iPhone. iPhone lineups have largely disappeared but iPhone success hasn't.

Also whichever outcome happens, there is a contingent on this forum that will view it negatively either way.

Sells out fast: Inadequate stocks from (purely made up) reasons: manufacturing issues, some kind of marketing ploy to hype it going out of stocks, holding back supply to sell old cards...

Doesn't sell out: Card is a failure that the consumer has no interest in.

-Ah, I see you've played the game of "Supply or Demand" before.

It's tough to fault NV on their clockwork execution each gen so I think this is the argument people who are frustrated with AMD's lack of execution hang their hats on, but that's just my two cents.

 

[fleshconsumed]

-Ah, I see you've played the game of "Supply or Demand" before.

It's tough to fault NV on their clockwork execution each gen so I think this is the argument people who are frustrated with AMD's lack of execution hang their hats on, but that's just my two cents.

Why not both? I'm frustrated that RDNA3 did not come out better, but I'm also frustrated at nvidia handicapping their cards with not enough VRAM and pushing prices higher and higher. And most of all I'm frustrated that consumers keep spending more for inferior nvidia products.

 

[Thunder 57]

Why not both? I'm frustrated that RDNA3 did not come out better, but I'm also frustrated at nvidia handicapping their cards with not enough VRAM and pushing prices higher and higher. And most of all I'm frustrated that consumers keep spending more for inferior nvidia products.

That is the real problem right there I think. Intel and AMD is a true duopoly, and because of that prices have remained competitive despite the "inflation" argument. Nvidia basically has a monoply and treats the market as such, screwing over the customers because they stupidly think there is no alternative. RDNA2 was solid yet it just didn't sell anywhere near as well as it should've. Of course the joke is on the NVIDIA buyers as many RDNA2 cards will remain viable while NVIDIA's are struggling with gimped VRAM. Hopefully this controversy gets more people to buy AMD or even Intel. Of course AMD is doing itself no favors with RDNA3, especially buy not releasing more mid range cards and none in sight.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Of course AMD is doing itself no favors with RDNA3, especially buy not releasing more mid range cards and none in sight.

Yup. 4070 is new technology. Currently competing cards with RDNA2 are old. That is a psychological barrier for AMD to overcome.

 

[jpiniero]

Colorful's custom GeForce RTX 4060 Ti to feature 2580 MHz boost clock - VideoCardz.com

Colorful RTX 4060 Ti gets rumored clock information The first known custom design based on the upcoming RTX 4060 Ti GPU is reportedly factory-overclocked. According to T4C Fantasy, a maintainer of TechPowerUP database, the soon-to-be-released GeForce RTX 4060 Ti from Colorful is to feature...

videocardz.com

Probably worth reminding people that the 4060 Ti and 4060 have less cores than the 30 series products AND only have 8 lanes.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Colorful's custom GeForce RTX 4060 Ti to feature 2580 MHz boost clock - VideoCardz.com

Colorful RTX 4060 Ti gets rumored clock information The first known custom design based on the upcoming RTX 4060 Ti GPU is reportedly factory-overclocked. According to T4C Fantasy, a maintainer of TechPowerUP database, the soon-to-be-released GeForce RTX 4060 Ti from Colorful is to feature...

videocardz.com

Probably worth reminding people that the 4060 Ti and 4060 have less cores than the 30 series products AND only have 8 lanes.

I expect much gnashing of teeth when these show up with 8GB, to be followed by the AMD RX 7600 cards, also with only 8GB.

 

[Thunder 57]

I expect much gnashing of teeth when these show up with 8GB, to be followed by the AMD RX 7600 cards, also with only 8GB.

Let's wait until we see performance and pricing. Rumor is the 4060 is a laptop chip. If they pull that it will be well deserved. I like this reply though:

"Less cores, less bandwidth, less pcie lanes and still 8 GBs of VRAM. The correct technical term for this is garbage, I believe.".

 

[igor_kavinski]

HL2 path tracing with RTX Remix:

Half Life 2 gets path tracing makeover with NVIDIA RTX Remix - VideoCardz.com

Half-Life 2 mod with RTX Igor Zdrowowicz is a modder currently working on a ‘HL2RTX’. This is a mod of the all-time classic Valve Half-Life 2 game that adds path tracing thanks to NVIDIA software. The first mod showcase is dated before NVIDIA announced that RTX Remix would be open source. The...

videocardz.com

Things could get very interesting very quickly.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

HL2 path tracing with RTX Remix:

Half Life 2 gets path tracing makeover with NVIDIA RTX Remix - VideoCardz.com

Half-Life 2 mod with RTX Igor Zdrowowicz is a modder currently working on a ‘HL2RTX’. This is a mod of the all-time classic Valve Half-Life 2 game that adds path tracing thanks to NVIDIA software. The first mod showcase is dated before NVIDIA announced that RTX Remix would be open source. The...

videocardz.com

Things could get very interesting very quickly.

-Its been a long time... That kinda just looks like what I remember HL2 looking like with it's baked in lighting and such.

Not exactly sure what the path tracing is bringing to the table. Also not sure if that herky jerky encode is a result of path tracing or the much ballyhooed NVENC at work...

 

[igor_kavinski]

-Its been a long time... That kinda just looks like what I remember HL2 looking like with it's baked in lighting and such.

Incorrect.

I hated the Ravenholm level coz it looked too dark. The remixed version lets me see everything and the lighting is much better, colors are more vivid and the textures don't look as awful.