Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

[Aapje]

That's definitely what I'm thinking of at the moment (or the AMD equivalent). That one should have decent VRAM as well.

 

[jpiniero]

More people will be interested in the 4070, probably around a 3080 in performance and $500ish in price.

3070's MSRP was $500. 4070 will be way higher than that.

 

[leoneazzurro]

Higher clock rates to achieve the same performance means more power draw to get there. I didn't particularly like Nvidia's move to 500W+ cards and I wouldn't like to see AMD follow suit either.

Any cost you might save on the smaller die just go into the extra hardware to power and cool the card to achieve the same level of performance.

Well these are the performance targets in the TF department, we will see how AMD chose to achieve them and at what power draw. At the moment is all so vague that everyone seems to be throwing diffrent numbers around without so much sense (it's 2 GCD - 4MCD, no it's 1 GCD 6 MCD, it's 15360 shaders, no it's 12288, it's single issue no it's VLIW2 it's 256 bit no it's 384 bit and so on). To me it seems to be back to the days before R700.
About ADA, it's good we see a reduction in power numbers, even if at this point the 600W rumor can point out to a full AD102 die with higher power draw for a future 4090Ti

 

[jpiniero]

About ADA, it's good we see a reduction in power numbers, even if at this point the 600W rumor can point out to a full AD102 die with higher power draw for a future 4090Ti

I could see a 4080 Super when the RDNA3 chiplet parts arrive with higher TDPs.

Edit: Or the official TDP will be 450 but the FE and most AIBs will be higher.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

If NV legitimately have the final design cooler in hand, then they're likely not far from launch. Means board layout, power specs, etc have all been finalized. We might get the July "paper" launch many are expecting so NV can blunt some of AMD's thunder.

 

[amenx]

They seem in a rush to get the 4000 series out. I wonder if it has anything to do with the upcoming ETH move to POS in next few months, after which 1000s of cards in huge mining farms will suddenly flood the used card market. Which will very likely depress the new cards prices for quite a while.

 

[Qwertilot]

No rush or anything. It always amuses me how excited people get when NV are actually incredibly predictable

 

[amenx]

Predictable? Pascal release = 2nd qtr 2016, Turing, Ampere = late 3rd qtr 2018, 2020. Is that predictability?

Just more grist for what is basically a kopite7kimi rumors thread:

...According to reliable NVIDIA leaker ‘kopite7kimi’, the company might release its new series already in early third quarter, which means either July or August. This is contrary to previous expectations that RTX 40 series could be released in September at the earliest...

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 40 series now rumored to launch in 'early Q3' - VideoCardz.com

NVIDIA RTX 40 series already in early Q3? The most recent rumors target July/August this year for the upcoming GeForce RTX 40 series launch. According to reliable NVIDIA leaker ‘kopite7kimi’, the company might release its new series already in early third quarter, which means either July or...

videocardz.com

 

[Aapje]

I expect an announcement before the actual release, so the old rumors can still be correct, even if it gets announced in July.

 

[Qwertilot]

Predictable? Pascal release = 2nd qtr 2016, Turing, Ampere = late 3rd qtr 2018, 2020. Is that predictability?

Well, actually yes it is isn't it? Clockwork. I mean they could in theory have run some series for an 18 month cycle, the odd random one for 12, some for 30 months etc etc.

As it is its 2 years, with perhaps slight changes in when the cards actually appear between July -> September.

iirc the performance increases have been broadly predictable in recent years too? Maybe the switch to the ray tracing/tensor cores broke that a little bit.

 

[Timmah!]

Predictable? Pascal release = 2nd qtr 2016, Turing, Ampere = late 3rd qtr 2018, 2020. Is that predictability?

Just more grist for what is basically a kopite7kimi rumors thread:

...According to reliable NVIDIA leaker ‘kopite7kimi’, the company might release its new series already in early third quarter, which means either July or August. This is contrary to previous expectations that RTX 40 series could be released in September at the earliest...

NVIDIA GeForce RTX 40 series now rumored to launch in 'early Q3' - VideoCardz.com

NVIDIA RTX 40 series already in early Q3? The most recent rumors target July/August this year for the upcoming GeForce RTX 40 series launch. According to reliable NVIDIA leaker ‘kopite7kimi’, the company might release its new series already in early third quarter, which means either July or...

videocardz.com

Even if its officially released in July, my personal experience from purchasing Turing and Ampere tell me the cards wont be available to buy in meaningful numbers until October. I would be massively surprised if its different this time around.

 

[DooKey]

Even if its officially released in July, my personal experience from purchasing Turing and Ampere tell me the cards wont be available to buy in meaningful numbers until October. I would be massively surprised if its different this time around.

I believe they placed a larger wafer order with TSMC this release cycle and should be receiving more GPU dies per month than they have in the past. Should help them to build up stock faster.

 

[Aapje]

I also expect huge demand though, as many people have postponed updating. Availability is as much a question of demand as it is of supply.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

I also expect huge demand though, as many people have postponed updating. Availability is as much a question of demand as it is of supply.

And while demand is certainly down, it's not enough for GPU prices to be where they would've been without the crypto craze, let alone the chip crunch as well.

Nvidia also seems to very much value a "first mover" advantage, however real that is. So they definitely don't have a problem paper launching if it seems to gain them mindshare.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

We literally went though the whole "Theyre so popular they're selling out"/"it's a paper launch there is no supply" BS with the RTX 3xxx launch.

It'll be the same BS again for the 4xxx gen, but with my relatively low opinion of people where it is, I suspect NV benefits a lot more from the prior though process than it suffers from the later.

 

[Aapje]

Nvidia also seems to very much value a "first mover" advantage, however real that is. So they definitely don't have a problem paper launching if it seems to gain them mindshare.

I don't think that they will benefit that much since they already have the mindshare. It's not like they need to establish a reputation of being able to deliver the best, if only for a few months. Most people already assume that Nvidia will have the best cards. It can also really backfire on them as well when their cards turn out to be furnaces. Then AMD may really be able to profit from that backlash even if the next AMD cards use more than the current gen (which they probably will due to higher clocks), because they look very reasonable by comparison.

 

[dangerman1337]

My biggest question is assuming the 4090 is a 450W SKU then will they launch the rumoured 600W '4090 Ti' SKU aswell because that has been in the rumour mill by many for way too long with often mentioned and even tested.

 

[jpiniero]

My biggest question is assuming the 4090 is a 450W SKU then will they launch the rumoured 600W '4090 Ti' SKU aswell because that has been in the rumour mill by many for way too long with often mentioned and even tested.

I'm beginning to think they will and save the 4080 for later.

 

[biostud]

Hopefully, we won't run into Covid bottlenecks this time.

 

[Timmah!]

I'm beginning to think they will and save the 4080 for later.

I dont know if they are saving 4080 for later, but with these recent 4090Ti rumors and the picture of its heatsink i am starting to think, that we are about to witness another tier "reshuffling", when old XX80 tier as we knew at 600~900 (through Pascal, Turing, Ampere generations at least) is going to be replaced by xx90 at say 1400 (3090s original price) and 3090 of last year is going to be replaced by 4090Ti straight at launch for say 2000 (3090Tis price). Pretty much creating another tier at top end, increasing the price of the halo product even further and bumping the old gaming flagship (xx80 card) down the stack. Which will go down another level when 4080Ti is released in 2023 for say 1100.

Rather big cut to rumored 4090 (more similar to 3080 than 3090) and xx80 being separate smaller chip now seem to hint at this possibility.

The question remains, if this happens to be the case, whether i will go with 90 or 90Ti card. In the case of 3000 series, there was no choice really, as i wanted/needed 24GB of RAM and only 3090 provided. Now however, if both cards have the same RAM amount, i might opt for the lesser card, or maybe even 2? I can live with 14 percent smaller performance. If however Ti card was 48GB vram, then its completely different situation.

EDIT: Lets hope its all because of AMD strong performance and that AMD will be equally aggressive at pricing as it is with performance, so the prices will be actually lower than expectations above.

 

[biostud]

3080Ti, 3090 and 3090ti are simply nvidia cash cows, and horrible price/performance cards. And personally I would never buy such a card.
Titan cards at least had some usefulness as a semi pro card.

While I'm not in the market for $1000+ video cards, if the price/performance ratio was close to the same as lower priced cards, then as a consumer it would still be an interesting option.

 

[jpiniero]

I dont know if they are saving 4080 for later, but with these recent 4090Ti rumors and the picture of its heatsink i am starting to think, that we are about to witness another tier "reshuffling", when old XX80 tier as we knew at 600~900

I think they are slotting the 4090 where the 4080 Ti would normally have been.

 

[CakeMonster]

3080Ti, 3090 and 3090ti are simply nvidia cash cows, and horrible price/performance cards. And personally I would never buy such a card.
Titan cards at least had some usefulness as a semi pro card.

Depends. Its getting harder and harder to do a 'cheap' regular upgrade of midrange cards which was a good cost prospect 3+ years ago.

A 12-24GB current card with DLSS support will last you a long time, but those are much more expensive. A 3080 10GB card which theoretically could be had at retail price is designed to get you in trouble earlier.

The original 3090 24GB might ironically last people quite long, throwing the old logic completely off.

 

[Mopetar]

I'm not sure if the high-end cards will last as long as they historically may have. Although the generational performance improvements in the general sense have slowed, the performance gains in RT are at least doubling and if that's where games are headed, it will mean that the older hardware will fall off a lot harder in those titles.

The 3090 will at least have plenty of RAM, but I suspect that the 3080 won't age nearly as well and will hit a wall a lot sooner.

 

[Timmah!]

3080Ti, 3090 and 3090ti are simply nvidia cash cows, and horrible price/performance cards. And personally I would never buy such a card.
Titan cards at least had some usefulness as a semi pro card.

While I'm not in the market for $1000+ video cards, if the price/performance ratio was close to the same as lower priced cards, then as a consumer it would still be an interesting option.

I am using 3090 for work mainly (archviz rendering), so the statement, that only Titan had usefulness as semi-pro card, is false. If anything, 3090 at its 1500 MSRP (i got the EVGA XC3 version for 1800 EUROs incl. VAT) was better deal for me than Titan RTX for 2500.