I mean sure, that'd be okay too I guess, but they really should be aiming for Jan-Apr 2022 (Q2 latest). Unless they just don't care anymore. As good as Zen3d might be, I don't think it obviates the need for them to launch their new platform with a desktop halo product to go with it along the generally-accepted cadence of 15-18 months.
I don't look at Zen 3+/V-Cache as a Zen+ (2000 series) situation. I view it as an XT type of situation. If it were that, we wouldn't be seeing Zen 4 until well into 2023. AM5 boards are going to be manufactured in Q1 and arrive in Q2 '22. It seems incredibly stupid to begin production so early if the product is coming in December. You usually want to get products a month out before the holiday season begins. AMD's Zen 3 launch in early November did not do them any favors. It's hard to comment on the V-Cache products because they're only affecting top SKUs per AMD's words. It's hardly an XT going by my own example. No idea if Threadripper will come with V-Cache or not, but I'd say it's a given. Zen 3 based Threadripper was already going to be a monster and that was known before the V-Cache announcement.
From what I've heard, TSMC really wants everyone on N7 to transition away to N6 due to reasons of cost. It would be eccentric moving forward for AMD to take any N7 wafers from TSMC. I'm guessing they're going to try to move N7+ and N7P customers - such as they are - to N5 and derivatives. But that's just a guess, and I don't think AMD even uses those nodes anyway (which still confuses me, but whatever!).
The way I understand TSMC's process, not having set a foot in any of their fabs, is that all these nodes run independent of others in a node family. That's what I've been told by people who are more closely involved with TSMC. It doesn't make much sense to me either but TSMC would likely prefer products moved to N6 if they'd truly benefit from it. Console refresh APUs/Pro Models would benefit but that's not for another few years because consoles are sold at cost but you don't want to take on more cost eating than necessary if you're Sony or Microsoft.
We will see. I will concede that there is a possibility that failed Genoa CCDs may comprise early Raphael, and that any aggressive push to saturate ODM channels with Genoa will just make it easier for them to launch Raphael earlier than Q4 2022 (which is a commonly rumoured launch quarter).
Seeing as the chiplets are the same from top to bottom, you are very likely 100% correct with that assertion. It does make sense because those failed chiplets would still be inadequate considering they're early run product and as yields improve and production is refined the CPUs generally become better.
It's fine. There's some hot take rumors coming out and it's not really spoken about.
It's actually 15-18 month now (bleh). Zen1->Zen+ was 13 months, ->Zen2 was 15 months, and ->Zen3 was 18 months. At least on the consumer side. Things were a little different on the server side but that is to be expected, since that is their primary focus at the moment. In any case, Nov 2020 saw the Vermeer launch, so Raphael would be Jan-Apr 2022 assuming AMD is pegging their cadence to Raphael and not Zen3D/Warhol/whateveritis.
Zen 2 had considerable work done, though. Actually it's funny you bring this up. I do believe Zen 3 got delayed due to COVID. On the other hand, VC released a chart a short while back with Zen 5 in 2023. That would point towards a time regression if true, especially if Raphael is launching in 2H 2022. If it's earlier like my guess or in summer 2022, it would point towards a 15-18 month run if it releases in late 2023. But if it launches in late 2022 like Zen 3 did, then Zen 5 launching in 2023 would point at a much shorter dev cycle in line with Zen to Zen+.
If AMD is saying "eh let's just let Zen3d take Raphael's spot and delay Raphael" then all bets are off.
Except it'll only affect Ryzen 9 products the way AMD framed it. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if the 5950X is the only one that gets the treatment outside the Threadripper lineup. I think it's safe to say 3D cache will be commonly available on Zen 4 and beyond. If AMD could routinely bring in performance bumps like Zen 2 to Zen 3, and then 3D cache to it, they could possibly see performance gains each generation that would keep Intel's engineers sweating. A lot of the former Intel engineers I've spoken to and become friends didn't enjoy life at Intel two decades ago when AMD was steamrolling them at every turn. I can't blame them. Crunch time kills your soul regardless of where you work. The now gone Intel intranet blog post and comments that were leaked showed the morale at the company, and that was before Zen 2 came out. That was a few weeks before Zen 2 launched, in mid June 2019. A lot has changed since then.