50 Years of Failed Climate Change Predictions

[zinfamous]

I'm not a scientist, i'm a Geologist (retired) that finds politics and science enjoyable. I also do my due diligence on the subject. I have no problem accepting climate change and the science behind it, what I have a problem with are the people and groups that exaggerate the issue for power, control and profit.

Sometimes people will talk about how the 8 inches of sea level rise in the last 120 years is impacting cities like Miami, but won't add that the X feet of soil subsidence is what is really driving the problem.

And so when humans spend decades destroying Mangroves and marsh lands to build their golf courses and condos, reducing drainage potential for major storms and natural cycles of soil reclamation, lending towards that erosion, somehow that isn't humans causing these problems?

lol, you fucking dumb bastard. That data is real, and it is in the models. You just refuse to read it. You refuse to acknowledge it. You're "retired" a ..."geologist" obviously not one worth the shit paper your loldegree was printed on, because you clearly gave the fuck up on science decades ago. Obvious. Without question.

You keep up on nothing. You read no journals. You look at whatever "science" that NewsMax is reporting to you. That much is clear. You accept whatever they tell you. You consider yourself informed. You've decided that your brain doesn't need to work anymore, because you killed it in 1988, if not earlier. You already told us this.

How is anyone supposed to take you seriously, if you've plainly admitted to not giving a dick about anything that has been learned after 1988? What do you expect from these forums, after bowing down under the weight of your own decades-long failure to engage in human achievement? What do you want from anyone else here...to actually listen to you, and to treat you as an adult?

lol

 

[Victorian Gray]

Hasn't the climate always been changing? Why yes - yes it has lol.


I don't know why you lefties were somehow convinced to call it "climate change" instead of global warming.

Because the words describe two different concepts. American education eh?

 

[Victorian Gray]

How about all the typical lefties that love their "Do as I say, not as I do" narrative?

God forbid they switch to riding public transit, ride a bike to work, carpool with friends/coworkers etc.. etc...

Nope - They are absolutely 100% stuck driving their mid-size SUV everywhere. I HAVE TO! I DONT HAVE A CHOICE!

It's kind of hard for big oil to succeed if you *wait for it*... actually do something about it instead of just complaining.

Straw is not your friend.

 

[Victorian Gray]

BINGO!!! That is the way Spidey operates!! Pushing his own agenda regardless of the facts!!

It's not *his* agenda. He's just a tiny cog in a damn big machine.

 

[beginner99]

I bought a car that gets 2mpg more, when my AC went I got a new unit that is significantly more efficient.

The problem is that you need an AC. If US would properly insulate their houses, you wouldn't need an AC in most places. And a little warmer in the summer you will get used to. Almost nobody here has AC and I had low 80s temps inside (outisde high 90ties, Europe, heat wave. In winter it snows.). Yeah 80 for sleeping is a little warm but you get used to it.

 

[cytg111]

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions - Competitive Enterprise Institute

Modern doomsayers have been predicting climate and environmental disaster since the 1960s. They continue to do so today. None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true. What follows is a collection of notably wild predictions from notable people in government and...

cei.org

This just goes to show, as I say, we need to be careful and take care of our home, it is the only one we have... But somewhere along the line, it seems modern climate change research abandons science for agenda and in some case science fiction and crystal ball predictions. It is big business. It used to be only Republicans that were good at creating a boogeyman to be afraid of and leveraging that fear for votes. Now the Democrats are the undoubted masters of it. Trump is Hitler (LOL!), the modern Red Scare, racism EVERYwhere - to the point they'll even manufacture it when it is convenient, and climate change - the world is going to end unless you vote Democrat! Glad I walked away (#walkaway) from this obvious liberal propaganda.

Dont be stupid ..

How reliable are climate models?

<p>While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions that have been subsequently confirmed by observations.</p>

skepticalscience.com

Indisputable Facts On Climate Change

When it comes to climate change, there are certain indisputable facts. Even if you are a skeptic, you should familiarize yourself with the things we know to be true on this issue.

www.forbes.com

Lets get real : Is there some truth to your post? Yea. It IS big business in the context of determining flow of huge amounts of funds. So yea its politics.. big time.. ON BOTH SIDES.. Will there be people who will try to oversell the impact? Fuck yea, cause it stands to line their pockets. Will there be people who will totally ignore the verifyable facts? Fuck yea... One of these guys is your pres.
The course you stay now, Slow, will fuck you up.

 

[HomerJS]

I guess nothing to see here...

 

[SlowSpyder]

Holy crap, that's like a half degree difference on average! The temp of the earth has never fluctuated, never been warmups and ice ages, this .5C change is completely unprecedented!

UGH! I don't see the Maldives, they must be under water as predicted in some of the OP predictions!

LOL

 

[dank69]

... Debatable. ...

No

 

[SlowSpyder]

On topic: This is what indoctrination looks like. What a loon.

Teen Climate Activist Tells Congress Climate Crisis Is Linked to ‘Colonialism’

Teen climate activist Jamie Margolin testified and declared that the climate "crisis" is directly linked to colonialism and slavery.

www.breitbart.com

 

[cytg111]

On topic: This is what indoctrination looks like. What a loon.

Teen Climate Activist Tells Congress Climate Crisis Is Linked to ‘Colonialism’

Teen climate activist Jamie Margolin testified and declared that the climate "crisis" is directly linked to colonialism and slavery.

www.breitbart.com

You life quality will improve by a factor of ten, at least ..... if you stop going to BannonsColon.com ... errr breitbart and sites like it... Fox.
I promise you.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I have a problem with are the people and groups that exaggerate the issue for power, control and profit.

Can you point out examples of this taking place? Make sure you can provide ample sources for your claims, not just your opinion.

Sometimes people will talk about how the 8 inches of sea level rise in the last 120 years is impacting cities like Miami, but won't add that the X feet of soil subsidence is what is really driving the problem.

I was curious about this, so I did more reading. You might be referring to a study done by U of M and an Italian university regarding soil subsidence on miami's beaches, here's a link to it:

http://www.ces.fau.edu/arctic-florida/pdfs/fiaschi-wdowinski.pdf

per this article:

Fact or Fake: Florida Speaker Oliva says Miami Beach flooding is caused by sinking land

The statement In a recent interview, Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva was asked about preparations for sea-level rise and whether that’s on his legislative agenda. The question prompted Oliva…

www.orlandosentinel.com

They reached out to one of the study's authors, who had this to say:

Wdowinski, now an associate professor at Florida International University, said the parts of Miami Beach susceptible to sinking are largely confined to areas facing Biscayne Bay, where mangroves were torn out and replaced with fill material. Over time the fill and the mud and peat below it dry out and change in composition, which can cause sinking.

Now that makes total sense to me. I wouldn't expect soil subsidence to happen without a cause, unless it's happening in a region that's geologically active (which I think we can both agree, Florida isn't). Now, if you come in and completely replace half the mass of the topsoil with fill, yeah, I'd totally expect a few inches of 'settling' to take place over many years.

In continuation:

Harold Wanless, a geologist at UM, said sinking is a non-issue on much of Miami Beach, where pilings for large buildings are driven deep into the limestone formations. Those don’t sink.
Even if some isolated areas are prone to sinking, experts say that process halts after a period of decades.

Sounds awesome, subsidence isn't as big a deal for structures in Miami as it would have initially seemed, and as your opinions would indicate.

In contrast, that real threat from rising seas lies in the future. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimates a global sea level increase of 3 inches since 1992. The sea level by 2030 is projected to be 6-10 inches above the 1992 level, accelerating to 14-26 inches by 2060.
Oliva appears to be highlighting an issue that has significantly less to do with the long-term future of coastal areas like Miami Beach and Key Biscayne than the impacts of rising sea levels due to melting Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets and other environmental changes, such as warming ocean temperatures.
We shared Oliva’s statement with John Englander, an oceanographer who studies rising sea levels.
In an email, he responded, “...in the coming decades, as Greenland and Antarctica melt at a faster pace, the rate of global SLR (sea level rise) will overwhelm most of the localized nuance. Instead of focusing on those slight variations, all low-lying coastal areas need to recognize increased flooding from the short term flood events and the quasi-permanent higher sea level.”

Aw shit, here we are back at the 'sensationalism', where actual climate change is causing actual sea level rise with actual consequences. But whatever, that doesn't fall in line with your own feels about how the world works, so you'll reject it outright as well, and continue to feel like there's some obvious alternative explanation for why you feel warm while the house around you burns.

 

[HomerJS]

Holy crap, that's like a half degree difference on average! The temp of the earth has never fluctuated, never been warmups and ice ages, this .5C change is completely unprecedented!

UGH! I don't see the Maldives, they must be under water as predicted in some of the OP predictions!

LOL

Might want to take a look at the North pole, douchebag. Sea levels much?

Also scale is in C where 1 degree translates to almost 4 degrees. At North pole 8C degrees is a change of over 14 degrees

 

[SlowSpyder]

You life quality will improve by a factor of ten, at least ..... if you stop going to BannonsColon.com ... errr breitbart and sites like it... Fox.
I promise you.

You didn't watch the video. All they did was post some indoctrinated "climate activist" talking to congress. Complain about their right leaning all you want, but that story is perfectly legit.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Might want to take a look at the North pole, douchebag. Sea levels much?

Also scale is in C where 1 degree translates to almost 4 degrees. At North pole 8C degrees is a change of over 14 degrees

Surely Obama's new home will be under water soon?

Imagine if humans were 10,000 years quicker in our development. We might be posting on this site as the woolly mammoth and sabertooth tiger are going extinct, as the ice age is ending. Oh, the fear your type would peddle.

 

[HomerJS]

I find it amusing the OP who carries the water of Trump daily, the same guy that claims climate change is a hoax yet applies for variances at his properties due to rising sea levels.

Comical at best.

 

[SlowSpyder]

I find it amusing the OP who carries the water of Trump daily, the same guy that claims climate change is a hoax yet applies for variances at his properties due to rising sea levels.

Comical at best.

I don't carry water. I don't think climate change is a hoax, but that the dire FUD predictions are science fiction and crystal ball stuff.

 

[Paratus]

It's the Seth Borenstein article from 2008 . It's after The Guardian article from 2004 and before the picture of Al Gore.

Let’s see what Mr Hansen’s prediction was:
“Hansen, echoing work by other scientists said that within five to 10 years the Arctic will be free of summer ice.”

Ok to answer your original question, obviously there is still year round sea ice extent in the summer in the arctic. That answer should be enough to keep you happy in your bubble.

For those still playing along at home let’s see how far off his prediction was.

Here was the observed level of summer Arctic ice extent in 2008

Notice that the observation is actually quite far under the models. The IPCC models in this case predicted less melting than actually happend.

So what did the summer Arctic sea ice extent look like 5-10 years later?

So September of 2012, 4-5 years, later ice extent bottomed out at 3.41M Km^2 a 30% reduction. That would support his prediction roughly in the time frame.

By 2019 while sea ice extent has been at or slightly below the 2012 monthly minimums for a good part of the year, no year has met or exceed the absolute minimum for 2012 yet.

So Hansen’s predicted timing is wrong. He did however get the direction correct as sea ice extent has on average continued to decline since 2008.

Now since we shouldn’t be basing our understanding of the climate off anecdotes in news papers what did the IPCC climate models predict.

The AR5 runs from 2013 have us around 4.5M Km^2 for the average of the worst case RCP8.5 (red line) models in 2019. We are currently at 4.28M Km^2....

So the models are under predicting how bad sea ice extent is.

I can understand why the article, the OP and Tajy didn’t want to point out how the IPCC models are less apocalyptic than they should be.

 

[HomerJS]

I don't carry water. I don't think climate change is a hoax, but that the dire FUD predictions are science fiction and crystal ball stuff.

People who have heart attacks feel fine for years until they don't

 

[glenn1]

People who have heart attacks feel fine for years until they don't

Problem is you guys are pitching this all wrong. Saying "climate change is bad" because supposedly it will primarily hurt the poor and flood places like NYC gets a big "so?" from the Republicans you want to convince. Come up with a new angle that doesn't involve spending money on progressive wish-list items like mass transit in cities and and transfer/welfare payments and then perhaps you won't continue to languish with your policies never passing for decades in a row. You'd think that after the "Green New Deal" was defeated with zero votes in the Senate that you'd change strategy but it looks like the same old reruns of Al Gore and manbearpig.

 

[ivwshane]

Problem is you guys are pitching this all wrong. Saying "climate change is bad" because supposedly it will primarily hurt the poor and flood places like NYC gets a big "so?" from the Republicans you want to convince. Come up with a new angle that doesn't involve spending money on progressive wish-list items like mass transit in cities and and transfer/welfare payments and then perhaps you won't continue to languish with your policies never passing for decades in a row. You'd think that after the "Green New Deal" was defeated with zero votes in the Senate that you'd change strategy but it looks like the same old reruns of Al Gore and manbearpig.

I'm good with your proposal of killing billions of people. We can start with people like you who deny science, require coddling and feel good slogans in order to get behind change and who couldn't care less about their fellow humans.

 

[Amused]

To highlight my previous post.

Timeline.com

timeline.com

Climate change denial is the exact same misinformation campaign that tobacco disease denial was.

And look at the predictable sheep denying scientific consensus to maintain belief in their cult.

Science denial is science denial. Denying climate change is identical to anti-vax, flat Earth, chemtrailers, etc. All the same.

 

[TheVrolok]

I only come to these threads to learn from @Paratus. Does deliver.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Problem is you guys are pitching this all wrong. Saying "climate change is bad" because supposedly it will primarily hurt the poor and flood places like NYC gets a big "so?" from the Republicans you want to convince. Come up with a new angle that doesn't involve spending money on progressive wish-list items like mass transit in cities and and transfer/welfare payments and then perhaps you won't continue to languish with your policies never passing for decades in a row. You'd think that after the "Green New Deal" was defeated with zero votes in the Senate that you'd change strategy but it looks like the same old reruns of Al Gore and manbearpig.

Yeah that was tried by the people that came to Republicans explaining the actual implications of climate change, including cost, loss of life, loss of nature, and loss of civilizations. All those people got accused of being alarmist. So what's the solution? Explain how it's going to affect coastal (read: Democrat) areas of the US? Explain what it's going to cost us to not do anything? It falls on deaf ears because people like you simply don't want to believe it.

 

[ivwshane]

Yeah that was tried by the people that came to Republicans explaining the actual implications of climate change, including cost, loss of life, loss of nature, and loss of civilizations. All those people got accused of being alarmist. So what's the solution? Explain how it's going to affect coastal (read: Democrat) areas of the US? Explain what it's going to cost us to not do anything? It falls on deaf ears because people like you simply don't want to believe it.

I'd direct him to this link but who are we kidding, he won't bother just like the other mouth breathers.

republicEn - Home of the EcoRight

Conservative and care about climate change? Welcome home.

www.republicen.org