For #1 - I don't think you're average American can afford a Tesla, let alone including that additional cost up-front for FSD.
So, it's a little more complex than just up-front cost, but it does involve up-front costs:
1. Up-front cost: The average price for a new car in 2019 is $37,185 according to Kelly Blue Book. A base model Tesla (off menu) is $35k (before rebates/incentives). So you can at least get into a base-model Tesla with no FSD (which can be upgraded later) for the average selling price of a new car in America. So I would tweak that statement to say an American buy, who is in the market for a new car, who is going in for the average selling price, could in theory afford a base-model Tesla (which is pretty decently well-equipped).
/PRNewswire/ -- The valuation analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price for a light vehicle in the United States was...
www.prnewswire.com
2. Total costs: You'll save on maintenance costs long-term. The 5-year total costs to own between a Tesla 3 SR vs. a base Toyota Camry SE is $5,000:
September 27th, 2019 by Zachary Shahan There are several cost of ownership calculations out there between the Tesla Model 3 and the Toyota Camry, but there’s always room for more. In fact, as more and more Model 3s pop up around me week after week, I’m feeling like the Model 3 is the new Camry...
cleantechnica.com
For #2 - maybe it will cost more in the future, but there is the opportunity cost of what you could do with that money in the meantime. And if you take delivery before FSD becomes available for your car, you may only have a fraction of the time to use FSD with your vehicle, since it's nontransferable.
This is a really good point, and I think it can be looked at two ways:
1. Opportunity cost
2. Reality option
$7,000 is no joke. However, if you were to finance it, on a say a standard 5-year loan at say 0% interest (for the sake of easy financials here), that's an extra $117/mo, which is pretty hefty. But if you were to look at the whole picture, you're probably going to save about 2/3 in gas. So if a full tank of gas is $36 & a Tesla Model 3 costs $12 to fill up, then depending on how much fuel you go through in an average month, that extra fee could be a non-issue. The difficult thing with these comparisons is how many variables are totally dependent on the driver's unique situation, taste in cars in terms of trim level (additional costs), etc.
The reality option is that most people don't have $7k sitting around in cash to throw at an upgrade down the road when FSD is realized, which means if they really want it, it does make more sense as an option in the reality that people have to live in to buy it up-front, because then they can bundle it into their monthly payment, take advantage of the cost-savings of an EV, and get it paid off. Then again, if people are financial savvy, that $7,000 could have purchased Tesla stock at $209 at the end of August 2019, crashed out when it hit $418 (today's stock price), and literally doubled their money.
Granted, it's a dice roll to play the stock market, but that could be an option for (1) people who have $7,000 cash available, and (2) are savvy enough to invest it, and (3) don't mind the risk that comes with playing the stock market. However, I don't buy into the standard "X price" argument that is so prevalent on the Internet, because of the data, including things like an average new-car selling price of $37k, 78% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, and so on. What that tells me is that most people who are in the market for a new car could afford a non-tricked-out Tesla model & that most people - if they want FSD - would be better off buying that package up-front because they don't have the cash on-hand to buy it later & wouldn't be savvy enough to invest it in other things anyway.
I just don't trust them to actually deliver what they claim they will deliver. Musk has a big fat head and a loud dumb mouth - he may talk big in public about the future of automobiles and Tesla features, but at the end of the day, it's going to come down to the sales contract you sign, and there is probably enough wiggle room in the FSD part to be left feeling burned by a feature that may not be what you thought it would be.
That's an excellent point. Having been burned by vaporware numerous times, I really only believe in what's available right now, today, on a vehicle. So if you're happy where Autopilot is at today & you've plopped down your $7k, then you won't get mad if it never comes to fruition or if it takes years & years to finish. Honestly, I don't know if Tesla can do true, hands-free, Level-5 full self-driving with just radars & cameras alone. It's a question mark right now. I
hope they can, and I hope that in 3 years when my Cybertruck becomes available (2 years to production + 1 year to let them work the kinks out) that FSD will be in a better spot than just showing you Stop Signs on the road & slowly picking you up curbside from its parking space.
I know there were a lot of people who paid for FSD years ago & now have to upgrade their computers &
still not have true FSD yet, and that has to be incredibly frustrating for people who aren't onboard with the beta-test-and-wait methodology required to advance the technology - for people who paid for it & expected it as a turnkey feature in the near-term future, they are probably pretty irritated, but that's the risk you sign up for when you pay for something that's not actually shipping yet. Which is one of the reasons I rarely fund great Kickstarter ideas...I want to believe, X-files style, but also...ehhhhh lol. I believe companies when they ship the product, service, or feature, haha!
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