$35,000 Tesla Model III Is Coming In 2017

[Viper GTS]

I think anyone expecting additional price cuts on the 3 is going to be disappointed. They have no real competition even if you account for things like Niro still getting the full tax credit.

The one place I think they might do incentives is FSD they have huge leeway there given all the cars they are shipping have HW3. But, as with the price drops to date they risk pissing off the early adopter crowd. The hardcore tech crowd will be fine since they are used to that kind of thing but the normal car buying population will not be pleased.

If I'm wrong and price drops happen I will take comfort knowing the config I bought was $80k not that long ago, so I did OK. But I'm really expecting to see steady or increasing prices as more and more buyers of new cars figure out how dramatically better the EV driving experience is. I knew it in theory but actually driving one just made nearly all gas cars irrelevant. As more people experience this adoption is going to accelerate.

I'm even cautiously optimistic that something like we are seeing in the UK will hit here:

Research used cars - CarGurus.co.uk

blog.cargurus.co.uk

Viper GTS

 

[Vic]

Matt Farah drove one on his typical test run. IIRC he said he burned 47% of the total battery in 17 miles of spirited driving.

Viper GTS

I've watched probably all of Matt Farrah's One Takes, with many of them through that same canyon, and by my rough estimate that is the fastest run of them by far. Up to this point, my favorite run had been the Gunther Werks 400R, but I'd the Taycan Turbo S just beat that by a few seconds. I'm sure somebody somewhere out there has timed them.
So while you're only gonna get a few laps in the Taycan before your track day is over, you very well just might be the fastest car on the track while it lasts. And it will drive like a real car, and not like a video game.

 

[Viper GTS]

This took way longer than it should have, Tesla delivery/customer service is a bit of a disaster. Car looked good though and went straight into a covered transport for a PPF installation. We won't even get to drive it until we are back in town but delivery is complete and tax credit secured so things could have gone far worse.

Viper GTS

 

[thecoolnessrune]

Congrats! We pick up ours in a couple of hours.

 

[ponyo]

Congrats Viper GTS! The white with gray wheels look so good. I want Tesla car so bad but I must remain strong and wait. It's why I still haven't test drove any Tesla yet. I'm know I'll order one on the spot if I test drive one.

 

[thecoolnessrune]

Tesla acquired! Started at 270 miles of range. Got home with 98 miles of range. Actual distance was about 100 miles, so quite a bit more range used than projected. Keeping this car charged until we get our wall connector installed during winter will be tricky, but if I need to, I have the Gen 2 Adapter bundle to connect it to our dryer socket.

 

[Viper GTS]

I won't have L2 charging for a while yet either, likely spring. For me it's tied to a much larger garage renovation project which I seriously doubt will happen in the middle of winter. Fortunately a supercharger went live in my town just a week ago so the timing was nearly perfect. It's something like a mile from home.

The unfortunate thing is I have run the math on how many miles I can put on this car by load sharing with the wife - whoever drives the most that day takes it. I figure I will need around 67 miles a day of range and I can charge around 42 best case (14 hours @ 3 mph). So I have a 25 mile a day delta I need to make up. One thousand referral miles isn't going to last very long.

Congrats Viper GTS! The white with gray wheels look so good. I want Tesla car so bad but I must remain strong and wait. It's why I still haven't test drove any Tesla yet. I'm know I'll order one on the spot if I test drive one.

Do you have detailed data on how much your current cars cost you? I have extremely detailed spreadsheets of every car I've owned in roughly the last decade. Every purchase line item, every fillup, every tire, service, etc. I know exactly what my cars have cost me per mile to drive for the time I have owned them.

I am strongly of the opinion that most people would be converted by the economics alone if they truly broke down what they spend on cars. They don't feel it though because they're used to it, and just see the big(ger) payment of the EV. That and lingering range issues, my boss likes them but won't consider one because he drives from NJ to Maine and Florida a few times a year. He likes to drive straight through. Even 600mph supercharging apparently isn't enough for him he cares about minimizing that time above nearly all else. If I had that kind of need I would just rent a car each time.

If you don't have detailed cost data perhaps mine can be of value. I have a 2015 CX-5 we bought new in late 2014. We're up to 87,000 miles now. With everything I have spent on it from purchase to fuel to winter wheels/tires to repairs etc (I do not track insurance cost as it doesn't vary a lot per vehicle for me) minus what I think I can sell it for today I'm at about $0.37/mile. And that's for a boring car. My Viper cost me something like $1.50/mile. Focus RS will be around $1/mile I think.

Barring some catastrophic depreciation which I absolutely do not expect this car will be massively cheaper to operate than any of those, while being far safer and capable of ~3 second 60 runs. For me it's actually cash flow positive from day one which admittedly is mostly due to eliminating a vehicle but it's amazing to me that buying a nearly $60,000 car (50% more than I've ever spent before) can be so easily justified by spreadsheet. Even if it depreciates to zero by 200k miles or so I still come out ahead.

This is an interesting perspective (slightly koolaidy given it's Tesloop, but IMO the argument has validity):

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2019/2/6/tesla-and-the-electrifying-economics-of-depreciation

Viper GTS

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Great article/tool released regarding EVs, specifically battery degradation estimates based on a few thousand data points.

EV Battery Health: What 6,000 EV Batteries Tell Us | Geotab

How long does a typical EV battery last and is there a measurable difference between make and model? Learn how to prolong your EV battery life here.

www.geotab.com

Long story short, on average you can expect to retain 90% battery capacity after 6 years, thermal management helps a lot (thanks Tesla), not fast charging helps a lot (as in, DCFC, supercharging, etc).

 

[ponyo]

Do you have detailed data on how much your current cars cost you? I have extremely detailed spreadsheets of every car I've owned in roughly the last decade. Every purchase line item, every fillup, every tire, service, etc. I know exactly what my cars have cost me per mile to drive for the time I have owned them.

I am strongly of the opinion that most people would be converted by the economics alone if they truly broke down what they spend on cars. They don't feel it though because they're used to it, and just see the big(ger) payment of the EV. That and lingering range issues, my boss likes them but won't consider one because he drives from NJ to Maine and Florida a few times a year. He likes to drive straight through. Even 600mph supercharging apparently isn't enough for him he cares about minimizing that time above nearly all else. If I had that kind of need I would just rent a car each time.

If you don't have detailed cost data perhaps mine can be of value. I have a 2015 CX-5 we bought new in late 2014. We're up to 87,000 miles now. With everything I have spent on it from purchase to fuel to winter wheels/tires to repairs etc (I do not track insurance cost as it doesn't vary a lot per vehicle for me) minus what I think I can sell it for today I'm at about $0.37/mile. And that's for a boring car. My Viper cost me something like $1.50/mile. Focus RS will be around $1/mile I think.

Barring some catastrophic depreciation which I absolutely do not expect this car will be massively cheaper to operate than any of those, while being far safer and capable of ~3 second 60 runs. For me it's actually cash flow positive from day one which admittedly is mostly due to eliminating a vehicle but it's amazing to me that buying a nearly $60,000 car (50% more than I've ever spent before) can be so easily justified by spreadsheet. Even if it depreciates to zero by 200k miles or so I still come out ahead.

This is an interesting perspective (slightly koolaidy given it's Tesloop, but IMO the argument has validity):

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2019/2/6/tesla-and-the-electrifying-economics-of-depreciation

Viper GTS

No, I don't keep track of operating cost for my vehicles. But I don't need to. My cars are all old and long been paid off. I generally buy new and keep it until the wheels fall off. So buying any new car doesn't make any financial sense for me. The only vehicle I can remotely justify is the Cybertruck since I can use it for business. But cars are also emotional purchases and that's why I continue to keep C6 Corvette I bought new and pay yearly insurance on when I drive it less than 800 miles a year. Logic says I should've sold the C6 years ago since I never drive it. But we're emotional creatures and not always logical.

But the main reason why I haven't bought Tesla car is about money. At this point, I rather keep my money in Tesla stock than Tesla cars. I'm one of those Kool-aid drinkers who think Tesla stock is going to go to the moon and will be worth like 10 times its current price in 10 years. So if I purchase $60k Tesla car right now, that might be $600k car I'm buying if I'm right about where Tesla stock will be in 10 years. Sort of like how those early Apple Macbook was like $1 million notebook if people had instead bought Apple stock instead of the Macbook. So until I get my Tesla vehicle, I will just live vicariously through you guys. But I do have an order for Cybertruck Tri-Motor which I plan on buying when the time comes. Thanks for supporting Tesla mission!

 

[thedarkwolf]

I was tempted by the hyundai ioniq electric lease deal of $1k down and $79 a month(really $110) but then I learned it was only CARB states booo. Range would have been fine for pretty much all my driving and I'd still have my miata. Would have been cheap way to try an EV while I wait on used prices to keep dropping.

 

[jlee]

I was tempted by the hyundai ioniq electric lease deal of $1k down and $79 a month(really $110) but then I learned it was only CARB states booo. Range would have been fine for pretty much all my driving and I'd still have my miata. Would have been cheap way to try an EV while I wait on used prices to keep dropping.

I would have done that had there been any available (they were $99 here in NJ), but there weren't any left. I ended up buying a used Bolt instead.

 

[drnickriviera]

I won't have L2 charging for a while yet either, likely spring. For me it's tied to a much larger garage renovation project which I seriously doubt will happen in the middle of winter. Fortunately a supercharger went live in my town just a week ago so the timing was nearly perfect. It's something like a mile from home.

The unfortunate thing is I have run the math on how many miles I can put on this car by load sharing with the wife - whoever drives the most that day takes it. I figure I will need around 67 miles a day of range and I can charge around 42 best case (14 hours @ 3 mph). So I have a 25 mile a day delta I need to make up. One thousand referral miles isn't going to last very long.

You may want to look into Quick 220 if you have circuits on different legs nearby

 

[ponyo]

lol. This is like we're playing Gran Turismo video game. Yesterday, Tesla made available "Acceleration Boost" upgrade for all existing Model 3 LR AWD owners. This is $2,000 option you can buy with your Tesla phone app and it automatically sends over-the-air update to your Model 3 AWD and instantly increases 0-60 mph acceleration from 4.4 seconds to 3.9 seconds. That's 0.5 seconds improvement which is pretty huge without adding or swapping any additional hardware.

This is pure 100% profit for Tesla at mere click of a button. Well, maybe 80% pure profit if we want to be conservative and account for potential additional warranty repairs from this upgrade. Still if only 5,000 existing Model 3 AWD owners opt for this upgrade, that's additional $10 million to Tesla just like that with one push of a button. This is just the tip of the iceberg and shows the crazy unique ability and potential of Tesla to tap into additional revenue stream after the vehicle sale.

People have already bought this upgrade and tested it.

0-60 mph in 3.73 seconds. Better than advertised. 0-60 mph in 3.48 seconds with 1ft roll. I love it!

 

[thecoolnessrune]

I think this is a reconciliation of the different motors going into the Model 3 Performance vs. the regular Model 3. There's a lot of Stealths out there with the motors, but it's a toss-up for the regular Model 3's.

For those who actually got the "Stealth" Model 3, they've definitely got the better deal because they get the full 3.2s 0-60 car for $2,000. For the people who got regular LR AWD Model 3's, this is a good way to split the difference for the same price!

With myself being one of them, I might by the upgrade next year. Right now it's winter, range is already about 60% of optimal, and coming from a 21 year old car, this thing at 4.2s is already way faster than anything I'm used to.

 

[Viper GTS]

You may want to look into Quick 220 if you have circuits on different legs nearby

That is pretty cool I had no idea such a thing existed. Tragically the geniuses that ran power to my detached garage (6 car mind you) thought that a single 15A circuit was sufficient. It's not even enough to do proper lighting much less have a hope of L2 charging an EV.

Viper GTS

 

[heymrdj]

That is pretty cool I had no idea such a thing existed. Tragically the geniuses that ran power to my detached garage (6 car mind you) thought that a single 15A circuit was sufficient. It's not even enough to do proper lighting much less have a hope of L2 charging an EV.

Viper GTS

But why?!?!

 

[manly]

If you don't have detailed cost data perhaps mine can be of value. I have a 2015 CX-5 we bought new in late 2014. We're up to 87,000 miles now. With everything I have spent on it from purchase to fuel to winter wheels/tires to repairs etc (I do not track insurance cost as it doesn't vary a lot per vehicle for me) minus what I think I can sell it for today I'm at about $0.37/mile. And that's for a boring car. My Viper cost me something like $1.50/mile. Focus RS will be around $1/mile I think.

Barring some catastrophic depreciation which I absolutely do not expect this car will be massively cheaper to operate than any of those, while being far safer and capable of ~3 second 60 runs. For me it's actually cash flow positive from day one which admittedly is mostly due to eliminating a vehicle but it's amazing to me that buying a nearly $60,000 car (50% more than I've ever spent before) can be so easily justified by spreadsheet. Even if it depreciates to zero by 200k miles or so I still come out ahead.

Hmm, just doing some quick-ish math, 37c/mile for the CX-5 seems pretty good. Do compact SUVs depreciate relatively slowly? (I know in general, SUVs hold value better than out of favor sedans.)

We don't know what car you've eliminated, but how can the brand new $60k car be cash flow positive from day 1 to operate? TM3 depreciation is pretty good (meaning low), but that will still be losing $10k in year 1 of ownership? That buys a LOT of dino juice.

 

[Viper GTS]

Hmm, just doing some quick-ish math, 37c/mile for the CX-5 seems pretty good. Do compact SUVs depreciate relatively slowly? (I know in general, SUVs hold value better than out of favor sedans.)

We don't know what car you've eliminated, but how can the brand new $60k car be cash flow positive from day 1 to operate? TM3 depreciation is pretty good (meaning low), but that will still be losing $10k in year 1 of ownership? That buys a LOT of dino juice.

It is pretty good, it's been a good car. Gas, tires, brakes, and one damaged tire. That TCO includes an extended warranty that has covered a few other minor things like a head unit failure so it's basically paid for itself and allows us to sell the car with remaining warranty. That's still about $32k in operating costs over five years most of which is depreciation.

I'm sure you've seen the TCO calculations of a base 3 vs a Camry? Here in New Jersey it's even more in favor of the Model 3 as we don't currently pay sales tax on fully electric vehicles. So if I'm going to be buying new cars anyway (which I am) the 3 in low to moderate trims (SR, SR+) is cheaper TCO wise vs even an extremely conservative ICE vehicle at 5 years. I'm absolutely paying a premium above that to drive the fast version.

The thing you're likely missing is I'm not actually looking to reduce my transportation costs. I like cars, and both my wife and I spend a lot of time in them. We are going to be buying new cars every few years for advanced safety, infotainment, driver assist features, horsepower, etc. I view this as maximizing my transportation value - a much better overall experience heavily offset by $3500/year in fuel savings, sales tax savings, reduced maintenance costs, etc.

The fuel, insurance, and tax savings end up making this a slightly cash flow positive move for me (purely transportation expense per month, ignoring residual value). I expect TCO to be lower as well over the time I own it, but there is an element of uncertainty. I generally agree with the argument that vehicle depreciation models are going to change dramatically over the next decade as the average consumer wakes up to the vastly superior driving dynamics, safety, and economics possible with EVs. I'm gambling slightly that depreciation will be much lower in the mid term (say 5-7 years when this car has 100-150k miles on it) than a comparable class/performance ICE vehicle would have been.

Viper GTS

 

[ponyo]

Tesla will be releasing holiday software update which includes some games and FSD sneak preview. You do need HW3 for FSD preview.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1207865226604863488

https://twitter.com/x/status/1208468535292203008

 

[ponyo]

I just watched video of the Tesla Software 2019.40.50 update that started rolling out to people yesterday. It's amazing. This is the iPhone on wheels. Tesla is not a car company. They're Silicon Valley tech company like Apple, Google, and Amazon. There's no way legacy automakers are going to be able to do software like this and even hope to catch Tesla. Watch this video. Especially the 2nd half of the video where he is showing the FSD preview. The car is seeing the stop signs, signal lights, railroad track signs, speed limit signs, etc. So it's recognizing these things and once they train it with Tesla fleet, it's going to continue to improve and we will get full FSD. Amazing.

 

[teejee]

I just watched video of the Tesla Software 2019.40.50 update that started rolling out to people yesterday. It's amazing. This is the iPhone on wheels. Tesla is not a car company. They're Silicon Valley tech company like Apple, Google, and Amazon. There's no way legacy automakers are going to be able to do software like this and even hope to catch Tesla. Watch this video. Especially the 2nd half of the video where he is showing the FSD preview. The car is seeing the stop signs, signal lights, railroad track signs, speed limit signs, etc. So it's recognizing these things and once they train it with Tesla fleet, it's going to continue to improve and we will get full FSD. Amazing.

Do you expect autonomous driving with Teslas FSD? Except for low speed (parking) there are no signs of Teslas HW3 to be capable of true L4 autonomous driving in normal speeds except for very special conditions (maybe they can handle approved freeways if you also are following another car).

Teslas sensor setup cannot even keep the car from driving off the roads with proper failure rate.

A typical acceptable failure rate for deadly failures in automotive is once per 10^8 hours (ISO 26262). No way that a system that tries to manage this with only cameras and one front radar will be the first to succeed with decent L4 autonomous driving. By using lidar(s) and high resolution maps together with cameras and radars you will at least in theory be able to handle this.

So Teslas FSD will in general just be a very advanced driver support system where the driver must supervise the driving just as today.

Note, I work with ADAS systems and the sign reckognition shown in the video is what is expected from coming cheap ADAS cameras.

 

[ponyo]

Do you expect autonomous driving with Teslas FSD? Except for low speed (parking) there are no signs of Teslas HW3 to be capable of true L4 autonomous driving in normal speeds except for very special conditions (maybe they can handle approved freeways if you also are following another car).

Teslas sensor setup cannot even keep the car from driving off the roads with proper failure rate.

A typical acceptable failure rate for deadly failures in automotive is once per 10^8 hours (ISO 26262). No way that a system that tries to manage this with only cameras and one front radar will be the first to succeed with decent L4 autonomous driving. By using lidar(s) and high resolution maps together with cameras and radars you will at least in theory be able to handle this.

So Teslas FSD will in general just be a very advanced driver support system where the driver must supervise the driving just as today.

Note, I work with ADAS systems and the sign reckognition shown in the video is what is expected from coming cheap ADAS cameras.

Yes, I expect Tesla to win the FSD race. When I don't know. I can only guess. If we listen to Musk, Tesla might have feature complete FSD by the end of 2020. That means all the features are there but the system will still need driver monitoring while it learns. I suspect then couple more years for the system to learn and maybe get regulatory approval. So maybe 2025 or so? I just know when and if Tesla solves FSD, it's going to completely revolutionize and change transport as we know it forever.

George Hotz also thinks Tesla will be the first to solve FSD.

 

[Kaido]

C'mon Musk! Release a Model 3 with:

• Heated steering wheel
• Ludicrous mode
• 400+ mile battery

The code hints at a 100kWh battery & Ludicrous:

Tesla code hints Model 3 might get 100kWh battery and Ludicrous Mode

Tesla's Model 3 might get features normally reserved for its larger, more expensive siblings. Code sleuth Green has discovered references in Tesla's software to a number of potential improvements to the 'entry' EV, most notably a 100kWh battery. It's hard to say if this would deliver the range...

www.engadget.com

I understand their position with things like the heated steering wheel in regards to cannibalizing the sales of the Model S, but I think it's silly you're paying a MINIMUM of $35,000, all the way up to $65k+, and don't get a heated steering wheel. They could also get much higher 0 to 60 speeds, but choose not to because of the same issue. I hope Ludicrous will be like a 2.9-second car! I like the Model 3 waaaaay better than the Model S, having test-driven multiple versions of both vehicles (Performance, RWD, etc.).

 

[Muadib]

C'mon Musk! Release a Model 3 with:

• Heated steering wheel
• Ludicrous mode
• 400+ mile battery

The code hints at a 100kWh battery & Ludicrous:

Tesla code hints Model 3 might get 100kWh battery and Ludicrous Mode

Tesla's Model 3 might get features normally reserved for its larger, more expensive siblings. Code sleuth Green has discovered references in Tesla's software to a number of potential improvements to the 'entry' EV, most notably a 100kWh battery. It's hard to say if this would deliver the range...

www.engadget.com

I understand their position with things like the heated steering wheel in regards to cannibalizing the sales of the Model S, but I think it's silly you're paying a MINIMUM of $35,000, all the way up to $65k+, and don't get a heated steering wheel. They could also get much higher 0 to 60 speeds, but choose not to because of the same issue. I hope Ludicrous will be like a 2.9-second car! I like the Model 3 waaaaay better than the Model S, having test-driven multiple versions of both vehicles (Performance, RWD, etc.).

Do you know if the Cybertruck will have a heated wheel? I looked on the Tesla site, but all I saw was the motor breakdown on the order page. That's a must have for me, but the only option I saw was for Full-Self Driving. Pretty sure you ordered one, and I'm so close.

 

[Kaido]

Do you know if the Cybertruck will have a heated wheel? I looked on the Tesla site, but all I saw was the motor breakdown on the order page. That's a must have for me, but the only option I saw was for Full-Self Driving. Pretty sure you ordered one, and I'm so close.

I'd imagine it will have it. Definitely pre-ordered one...if it has a million-mile battery, that's hard to say no to! Plus it's a $100 deposit, which is vastly different than the $2,500 deposit they want for a Model Y.

Downside is I currently rent & have no garage & no charger access. So the Cybertruck requires me to move as a prerequisite LOL.