Question 3080 Shortage & Big Navi? Blessing?

[ejohanss69]

It's pretty easy to be frustrated with the inability to buy a 3080. Like many in this forum, I too was vigorously refreshing vendor pages the fateful day of launch, and got so far as checkout before I was given the "I'm sorry, the item you are buying is no longer available". Now, I'm enduring the frustrating 'in-stock' messages I'm getting from Amazon and others, only to be brought to a vendor that is asking $1,500+ for a 3080.

I'm also watching Nvidia's reaction, as well as their promise (and other vendors) of "thousands" of 3080's being made available this week and next. This is not giving me any hope of everything lining up for me to actually get one before the end of October.

However, it's got me thinking, what if all of this ends up being a blessing, not a curse? What if the higher end version of Big Navi actually rivals 3080 performance, but at $150-$200 less?

What do we really know about Big Navi - is this a possibility for the 'best' part in their product stack?

If I'm AMD, and if I know after testing a 3080 that my 'best' Big Navi part rivals / beats 3080, I start leaking benchmarks immediately.

Your thoughts?

 

[chrisjames61]

Comments on supply from Nvidia CEO for what it's worth. He also said to expect shortages to last through the end of the year.

Nvidia CEO: GeForce RTX 3080 and 3090 Shortages To Last Until 2021

Sad face

www.tomshardware.com

 

[chrisjames61]

"The 3080 and 3090 have a demand issue, not a supply issue," said Huang. "The demand issue is that it is much much greater than we expected — and we expected really a lot."

"Retailers will tell you they haven't seen a phenomenon like this in over a decade of computing. It hearkens back to the old days of Windows 95 and Pentium when people were just out of their minds to buy this stuff. So this is a phenomenon like we've not seen in a long time, and we just weren't prepared for it."

"Even if we knew about all the demand, I don't think it's possible to have ramped that fast. We're ramping really, really hard. Yields are great, the product's shipping fantastically, it's just getting sold out instantly," said Huang. "I appreciate it very much, I just don't think there's a real problem to solve. It's a phenomenon to observe. It's just a phenomenon."


What a bunch of disgusting lies. Does he think everyone is a moron?

 

[VirtualLarry]

Reminds me a lot of the Nintendo Wii, when that was released. (That was using an 'Engineered Shortage', BTW. They kept supply low, but just high enough, to keep the hype going for FAR longer than was normal or right.)

 

[zinfamous]

Cool. For some reason, I always thought you live in CA. MC is only a couple of blocks away from my house, so when I go to TJs I usually walk into MC to check things out.

The Microcenter nearest me is also in the same shopping center as TJ's. ...I guess they are cousins. This one is impossible to get into and a hell-hole of consumer excess and parking. I absolutely hate going to that part of the world and dealing with the humanity, just to score some cheap, depressing, frozen premade meals (and decent other stuff), and some sales on SSDs....

 

[Mopetar]

"The 3080 and 3090 have a demand issue, not a supply issue," said Huang. "The demand issue is that it is much much greater than we expected — and we expected really a lot."

"Retailers will tell you they haven't seen a phenomenon like this in over a decade of computing. It hearkens back to the old days of Windows 95 and Pentium when people were just out of their minds to buy this stuff. So this is a phenomenon like we've not seen in a long time, and we just weren't prepared for it."

"Even if we knew about all the demand, I don't think it's possible to have ramped that fast. We're ramping really, really hard. Yields are great, the product's shipping fantastically, it's just getting sold out instantly," said Huang. "I appreciate it very much, I just don't think there's a real problem to solve. It's a phenomenon to observe. It's just a phenomenon."


What a bunch of disgusting lies. Does he think everyone is a moron?

Unless there's some kind of panic or other unusual event (mining boom) there's no "demand issue" and anyone who finds it surprising that a lot of people want to pay $700 for better performance than what you could only recently get for $1,200 is lying through their teeth because no one is that stupid.

And it wouldn't even cost you anything to say that you're making as many cards as possible. They're using a new process, new memory technology, and a heavily engineered cooling system. It's pretty reason to expect supply issues out of the gate.

From some of the posted info about orders placed and fulfilled it's pretty obvious that the demand is massive, but the supply is straight up lacking.

 

[lobz]

Well duh - you replied to a post that was 2 weeks old and i was obviously off a $100. Do you regularly reply to old comments to point out errors to make yourself feel knowledgeable.

I just started reading the thread and commented as I went. Didn't look at the date, since the pricing announcement was 5+ weeks ago, my bad, sorry to be of inconvenience. The second part of your post is just pure ill will, I won't comment on it.

 

[jarablue]

We can sit here and complain all we want. Fact is these cards will sell out instantly until everyone has gotten their card. And I think that isn't going until be till March. Just the way it is. Peeps who can't afford to sit in front of a computer 24/7 refreshing the page every second or buy a bot, won't get a card for awhile.

 

[Stuka87]

I was being cordial actually. It was a 2 week old post of mine and obviously it was a error, being a jerk is calling out a 2 week old post and adding snark like "wonderland" in it.

Yes, the MSRP is $699.99. I have not seen it less than that either due to low availability and people selling it for much higher on ebay. Hopefully this changes when AMD launches Big Navi and hopefully they do not also pull a paper launch like what Nvidia did.

What does the post being two weeks old have to do with anything? The card went on sale five weeks ago. Prices have not changed. And there has never been an MSRP drop on a video card 5 weeks after launch.

The fact is your post was most definitely NOT cordial.

 

[peonyu]

What does the post being two weeks old have to do with anything? The card went on sale five weeks ago. Prices have not changed. And there has never been an MSRP drop on a video card 5 weeks after launch.

The fact is your post was most definitely NOT cordial.

Why are you trying to de-rail this topic with nonsense? I already replied that i had the MSRP wrong - big friggin deal.

Let's keep this thread about the 3080 and it's paper launch and not about a price tag that i was a hundred bucks off on.

 

[peonyu]

We can sit here and complain all we want. Fact is these cards will sell out instantly until everyone has gotten their card. And I think that isn't going until be till March. Just the way it is. Peeps who can't afford to sit in front of a computer 24/7 refreshing the page every second or buy a bot, won't get a card for awhile.

It's going to be Big Navi taking the 3080's lunch if it is competitive to it & at a equal or similar price point. Myself i am not a person who only buys Nvidia or AMD products and i suspect the vast majority of people are also this way. At the 28th, if Big Navi is in stock and not a paper launch like this was and competes well then that's where the buyers will head too. I know I will. I want a new card but i don't want to pay 2x more on Ebay due to paper launches.

 

[Qwertilot]

No one is taking anyone's lunch with the market demand like this! They'll both sell every decent GPU they can make, regardless of how the precise competitive match up ends up.

 

[misuspita]

Yes, but at the moment Nvidia released the cards on paper, with no real stock. If AMD matches certain proce/performance points, and has enough stock, then they will sell like crazy and get a big uplift on public awareness about their resurrection

 

[Qwertilot]

They're shipping in non trivial (if not huge) numbers just a vast backlog of back orders. So no stock sitting in shops.

If the demand is at all similar for AMD's GFX cards then they certainly won't stay in stock for a while. That could still be a good thing for AMD if they're shipping a good number!

In fact, if there's remotely similar excess demand for PS5/XBX (also maybe Zen3) - and I can't think why that objectively shouldn't be expected - then AMD won't be making all that many GFX cards in the first place. Sony/MS will both be after the capacity very aggressively indeed.

 

[Stuka87]

They're shipping in non trivial (if not huge) numbers just a vast backlog of back orders. So no stock sitting in shops.

If the demand is at all similar for AMD's GFX cards then they certainly won't stay in stock for a while. That could still be a good thing for AMD if they're shipping a good number!

In fact, if there's remotely similar excess demand for PS5/XBX (also maybe Zen3) - and I can't think why that objectively shouldn't be expected - then AMD won't be making all that many GFX cards in the first place. Sony/MS will both be after the capacity very aggressively indeed.

AMD is the number one 7nm customer at TSMC. They have done everything they can to make sure they have enough capacity. The Ampere launch was MUCH closer to a paper launch than not. Even game companies that are backed by nVidia cannot get 3080's to test with. Its extremely clear nVidia launched early to get out the door first.

Why are you trying to de-rail this topic with nonsense? I already replied that i had the MSRP wrong - big friggin deal.

Let's keep this thread about the 3080 and it's paper launch and not about a price tag that i was a hundred bucks off on.

The fact is you attacked another member for noting that you had inaccurate information.

 

[Qwertilot]

AMD is the number one 7nm customer at TSMC. They have done everything they can to make sure they have enough capacity.

Yes, and have you seen how massive the demand is/was for Ampere? AMD will not have originally planned to make enough GPU's to put a menaingful dent in that.

It then becomes a matter of who can get any extra capacity going, and that'll surely be the consoles. Those launches are absolutely enormous.

 

[Stuka87]

Yes, and have you seen how massive the demand is/was for Ampere? AMD will not have originally planned to make enough GPU's to put a menaingful dent in that.

It then becomes a matter of who can get any extra capacity going, and that'll surely be the consoles. Those launches are absolutely enormous.

Its hard to measure actual demand for ampere when supply is so utterly low.

 

[Qwertilot]

Its hard to measure actual demand for ampere when supply is so utterly low.

No, the demand is very well known via a few suppliers who've given concrete preorder data. It's genuinely insane.

What we don't know is how the supply compares to a normal launch.

 

[Quetzal]

3080 is also out of stock here in my local area. This really sucks.

 

[Mopetar]

Yes, and have you seen how massive the demand is/was for Ampere? AMD will not have originally planned to make enough GPU's to put a menaingful dent in that.

It doesn't really matter unless AMD can sell a comparable GPU to a 3080 for a similar price, because it's unlikely that either company could supply the demand right now.

A big part of it was the abysmal value/dollar that high end Turing provided, so when that's the basis for comparison the 3080 is so amazing you'd be a fool to pass up the chance to get one.

As much as everyone is hyped up about the chance for AMD to compete with NVidia or maybe even take the performance crown, I'd be happier if they used most of their wafers to release solid $300 cards for mainstream consumers. That's almost an even more neglected part of the market and I don't think we've had anything truly great since the 970 in that segment.

 

[undertaker101]

Look at how the sign up queues are moving at evga barely a 100 since they started them two weeks ago. Amazon has sold 2-5k cards total may be, so yeah supply is non existent.

 

[Qwertilot]

Look at how the sign up queues are moving at evga barely a 100 since they started them two weeks ago. Amazon has sold 2-5k cards total may be, so yeah supply is non existent.

How many are you expecting them to sell each month though? ~1 million in 2 years for their last big chips as an order of magnitude estimate off the steam survey. So 40-50k/month.

They're clearly somewhere round there, maybe half of it, impossible to say.

If you extrapolated the preorder demand levels up as continuous demand over a 2 year period you end up with genuinely insane numbers of cards.

 

[undertaker101]

How many are you expecting them to sell each month though? ~1 million in 2 years for their last big chips as an order of magnitude estimate off the steam survey. So 40-50k/month.

They're clearly somewhere round there, maybe half of it, impossible to say.

If you extrapolated the preorder demand levels up as continuous demand over a 2 year period you end up with genuinely insane numbers of cards.

They have sold less than a thousand cards total across all models for 3080 and 3090s since the queues were created 2 weeks ago. And even that for top models only. I have 9/21 for XC3 and 9/22 for FTW 3 Gaming (non ultra) and I will be very lucky to see either this side of 2020 at this rate. My 10/3 step up lol fuggetboutit.

 

[ksosx86]

A demand issue - keeps crackin me up like a kid sayin "I didn't do it!"

 

[Timorous]

And there has never been an MSRP drop on a video card 5 weeks after launch.

The GTX 280 and 260 would like a word.

 

[Stuka87]

The GTX 280 and 260 would like a word.

Ah, I had forgotten about that. It was like a month after launch that the HD 4870 came out and caused nVidia to drop the price from $650 to I think $499.