Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

[brycejones]

It’s not interesting at all, it’s expected. I’m sure we’ll be treated to the race realists rhetoric soon.

Well he started a whole new thread headed down that path.

 

[ivwshane]

Well he started a whole new thread headed down that path.

I know. He thinks he’s being cute/sly but we’ve all been here long enough to see and recognize the pattern when we see it.

 

[VashHT]

Have you seen the rhetoric towards white males? And then you want to be surprised when a lot of them vote Republican, even the poorest ones>?

White male here, I don't hear any rhetoric against white males for being white or male, just for being pieces of shit.

 

[APU_Fusion]

White male here, I don't hear any rhetoric against white males for being white or male, just for being pieces of shit.

GettRoad is clearly a MAGAT troll slurping at the 12th century level stereotypes and tropes because he is dumb and jealous of everyone being better than him. So he needs to justify his ego by pulling others down in his own feeble mind.

 

[dainthomas]

Strictly speaking, those words are true. They are also irrelevant.
Inflation is a "damage already done" sort of thing. Prices have already risen. "Under control" means we will stop incurring further damage.
We will no longer see such a rapid rise in prices, but they are already far higher and they will stay that way. This is damage done.

The pandemic and post-pandemic recent years have brought Americans a lot of economic pain. Democrats who deny this is are in emotional denial just due to the President having a D after his name. Under Bush, or Trump, we'd all be screaming bloody murder together. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

Seems like the best strategy would be to increase wages to match those prices. Only one party wants to do that.

I suppose trying to intentionally trigger deflation would also be a strategy, but given the high level of debt in the country that's probably a worse idea.

 

[pmv]

Strictly speaking, those words are true. They are also irrelevant.
Inflation is a "damage already done" sort of thing. Prices have already risen. "Under control" means we will stop incurring further damage.
We will no longer see such a rapid rise in prices, but they are already far higher and they will stay that way. This is damage done.

The pandemic and post-pandemic recent years have brought Americans a lot of economic pain. Democrats who deny this is are in emotional denial just due to the President having a D after his name. Under Bush, or Trump, we'd all be screaming bloody murder together. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

On that note, that that's pretty much exactly what I've been thinking about inflation here - under Sunak. He's claiming victory for having met one of his 'pledges' (which were always more like 'hopes' - mostly counting on 'regression to the mean', i.e. that things were bound to get better eventually, despite him having no strategy and not actually doing anything at all to bring any of them about), in that headline inflation has come down to half what it was when he drew up his list of things he vaguely hoped would happen.

But the loss of purchase-power has already happened and isn't being reversed, plus _food_ inflation is still very high at 10% (and inflation generally is still way above the 2% 'target'), so the less-well-off are still feeling the pain. The majority of people are still continuing to get poorer quite rapidly.

(HIs claim that NHS waiting lists would fall has comprehensively failed, as they've continued to go _up_).

Cuts both ways - if the right in the US can blame Biden for inflation, we equally well can blame the Tories here. Arguably more so, as it was 40 years of economic 'liberalisation' that has left us particularly badly exposed to external shocks, plus Brexit adds its contribution.

 

[fskimospy]

On that note, that that's pretty much exactly what I've been thinking about inflation here - under Sunak. He's claiming victory for having met one of his 'pledges' (which were always more like 'hopes' - mostly counting on 'regression to the mean', i.e. that things were bound to get better eventually, despite him having no strategy and not actually doing anything at all to bring any of them about), in that headline inflation has come down to half what it was when he drew up his list of things he vaguely hoped would happen.

But the loss of purchase-power has already happened and isn't being reversed, plus _food_ inflation is still very high at 10% (and inflation generally is still way above the 2% 'target'), so the less-well-off are still feeling the pain. The majority of people are still continuing to get poorer quite rapidly.

(HIs claim that NHS waiting lists would fall has comprehensively failed, as they've continued to go _up_).

Cuts both ways - if the right in the US can blame Biden for inflation, we equally well can blame the Tories here. Arguably more so, as it was 40 years of economic 'liberalisation' that has left us particularly badly exposed to external shocks, plus Brexit adds its contribution.

What's odd is that in the US the exact opposite is true. Real wages are at all time highs, especially concentrated in the less well off. So instead of them 'feeling the pain' or whatever they've never had it better.

 

[Jaskalas]

By elected officials? No, I haven't seen the rhetoric towards white males. Is this one of those things where someone sees something on Twitter and decides it's emblematic of the party?

Now that Twitter is dying it seems like we are shifting to 'I saw something on TikTok', as shown by the recent Osama bin Laden thing, but it's the same stupid idea.

Human psychology cannot cope with social media.
Several negative effects, not limited to but including:

1. Confirmation Bias.
2. Stereotyping with extremes.

Where as... if someone said something, clearly everyone says it, etc. Seems that, through the observation of this effect on people, we really suck at handling information. Almost as if we are entirely uneducated and defenseless against propaganda.

 

[K1052]

What's odd is that in the US the exact opposite is true. Real wages are at all time highs, especially concentrated in the less well off. So instead of them 'feeling the pain' or whatever they've never had it better.

The irony here is that Americans, quite clearly, would rather have 20% unemployment than see some prices rise and that's what they're going to get next time there is a major problem. The government seeing little reward for a clear policy victory is likely to accommodate them.

 

[MrSquished]

the lower classes really have it so much better now.

no wonder some of the establishment Dems get called elites. They are out of touch with what people on the ground are really feeling. With the insane housing costs and overall rapid rise in prices over a couple years, wealth inequality still absolutely insane, the tax code still fucked, most wage increases were just catching up a bit.

but when you are sitting pretty in your Park Slope properties, I guess it's easy to say the poors got it pretty good.

 

[Jaskalas]

What's odd is that in the US the exact opposite is true. Real wages are at all time highs, especially concentrated in the less well off. So instead of them 'feeling the pain' or whatever they've never had it better.

Anecdotally, food items that sold for around $4 are now around $6. $10 is now $15.
Did wages rise by 50% since 2020?

If they did not match pace and keep up, with whatever the actual number is, then people fell behind.
Also, you need to consider the lag time between higher prices and then higher wages to follow. People's budgets got bitten while waiting.

Then, how are we measuring inflation? If the items people need, and regularly pay for most often, rose faster than other items. Then average "inflation" would appear lower than the impact on the bottom lines of people buying food. It may not be as simple as comparing overall averages and calling it a day.

 

[fskimospy]

Anecdotally, food items that sold for around $4 are now around $6. $10 is now $15.
Did wages rise by 50% since 2020?

If they did not match pace and keep up, with whatever the actual number is, then people fell behind.
Also, you need to consider the lag time between higher prices and then higher wages to follow. People's budgets got bitten while waiting.

Then, how are we measuring inflation? If the items people need, and regularly pay for most often, rose faster than other items. Then average "inflation" would appear lower than the impact on the bottom lines of people buying food. It may not be as simple as comparing overall averages and calling it a day.

No, they not only kept pace, wages have increased faster than the rate of inflation.

 

[Jaskalas]

No, they not only kept pace, wages have increased faster than the rate of inflation.

People are paid 50% more than they were in 2020?

 

[manly]

What's odd is that in the US the exact opposite is true. Real wages are at all time highs, especially concentrated in the less well off. So instead of them 'feeling the pain' or whatever they've never had it better.

Surely this is hyperbole? I agree with you in all of the broad strokes; those in this thread whining that we're ignoring the less well off are falling into the GOP information trap. We had one moron in this thread yell at me that homeowners of a primary residence should be unhappy about their home values increasing!

But yes, wages have increased... just enough to offset inflation. So that's why the electorate is antsy and upset, and they've decided to channel that anger at Joe Biden. While it's bullshit, it's still a real political problem. Also as I read in some article this weekend, although wage growth has been most pronounced for the least well off, these households also spend the most on bread and butter items. So telling them their real wages are as high as ever doesn't make them feel any better.

The irony here is that Americans, quite clearly, would rather have 20% unemployment than see some prices rise and that's what they're going to get next time there is a major problem. The government seeing little reward for a clear policy victory is likely to accommodate them.

You're smart enough to know that isn't true either. If we had stable prices and high unemployment, more people would be feeling actual pain and Biden's reelection would be in serious jeopardy. Trust me I totally understand that almost all of the broad economic data is favorable, and nobody should be upset about 4% unemployment. Partisan GOP economic bashing aside, Bidenomics just isn't resonating with independent and even some Democratic voters. I'm not a political strategist, but I'm not sure what the solution is. Joe Plumber sees his Big Mac combo is $11, and he thinks it should still be $8.50. How do you solve that?

What a moron, 3 year aggregate inflation is not 50%.

 

[MrSquished]

But yes, wages have increased... just enough to offset inflation. So that's why the electorate is antsy and upset, and they've decided to channel that anger at Joe Biden. While it's bullshit, it's still a real political problem. Also as I read in some article this weekend, although wage growth has been most pronounced for the least well off, these households also spend the most on bread and butter items. So telling them their real wages are as high as ever doesn't make them feel any better.


You're smart enough to know that isn't true either. If we had stable prices and high unemployment, more people would be feeling actual pain and Biden's reelection would be in serious jeopardy. Trust me I totally understand that almost all of the broad economic data is favorable, and nobody should be upset about 4% unemployment. And partisan GOP economic bashing aside, Bidenomics just isn't resonating with independent and even some Democratic voters. I'm not a political strategist, but I'm not sure what the solution is. Joe Plumber sees his Big Mac combo is $11, and he thinks it should still be $8.50. How do you solve that?

What a moron, 3 year aggregate inflation is not 50%.

in fact establishment pseudo-intellectual well-off elites like him spouting off like that are exactly the kind of dems the lower classes can look at and say, these fucking Dems are so out of touch with what is going on in my life, they don't give a shit. and in his case, they are exactly right

then they do stupid things and don't vote or in some cases say fuck it and vote for the other guy.

 

[fskimospy]

People are paid 50% more than they were in 2020?

No, but there has also not been 50% inflation since 2020.

Overall real wages are at an all time high, specifically due to large increases in wages for those at the low end.

This is just factual information.

 

[fskimospy]

Surely this is hyperbole? I agree with you in all of the broad strokes; those in this thread whining that we're ignoring the less well off are falling into the GOP information trap. We had one moron in this thread yell at me that homeowners of a primary residence should be unhappy about their home values increasing!

But yes, wages have increased... just enough to offset inflation. So that's why the electorate is antsy and upset, and they've decided to channel that anger at Joe Biden. While it's bullshit, it's still a real political problem. Also as I read in some article this weekend, although wage growth has been most pronounced for the least well off, these households also spend the most on bread and butter items. So telling them their real wages are as high as ever doesn't make them feel any better.


You're smart enough to know that isn't true either. If we had stable prices and high unemployment, more people would be feeling actual pain and Biden's reelection would be in serious jeopardy. Trust me I totally understand that almost all of the broad economic data is favorable, and nobody should be upset about 4% unemployment. Partisan GOP economic bashing aside, Bidenomics just isn't resonating with independent and even some Democratic voters. I'm not a political strategist, but I'm not sure what the solution is. Joe Plumber sees his Big Mac combo is $11, and he thinks it should still be $8.50. How do you solve that?

What a moron, 3 year aggregate inflation is not 50%.

Well by never had it better I mean real wages are at the highest level in history for lower paid people. (They are slightly lower for upper middle class though) Overall though the story has mostly been wages keeping up with inflation for mid and higher earners and lower paid people getting a major income boost.

 

[manly]

Well by never had it better I mean real wages are at the highest level in history for lower paid people. (They are slightly lower for upper middle class though) Overall though the story has mostly been wages keeping up with inflation for mid and higher earners and lower paid people getting a major income boost.

Again although you're right about the broad strokes, you're vastly overrating how low income people perceive their higher wages. I found the article I was referring to; it includes some real economic data. (And the AP poll from an LAT article I posted about 2 weeks ago ITT.)

Adjusted for inflation, median weekly earnings — those in the middle of the income distribution — have risen at just a 0.2% annual rate from the final three months of 2019 through the second quarter of this year, according to calculations by Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. That meager gain has left many Americans feeling that they have made little financial progress.

Americans are upset about surviving a pandemic and paying for the privilege: 'They want these prices to be back where they were' | Fortune

“Most Americans," says Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve Cook said, "are not just looking for disinflation. They’re looking for deflation."

fortune.com

Like I've consistently said, when the average consumer wants DEFLATION, you can't just hand wave that away by saying "the economy is stable and still growing."

 

[fskimospy]

Again although you're right about the broad strokes, you're vastly overrating how low income people perceive their higher wages. I found the article I was referring to; it includes some real economic data. (And the AP poll from an LAT article I posted about 2 weeks ago ITT.)

Americans are upset about surviving a pandemic and paying for the privilege: 'They want these prices to be back where they were' | Fortune

“Most Americans," says Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve Cook said, "are not just looking for disinflation. They’re looking for deflation."

fortune.com

Like I've consistently said, when the average consumer wants DEFLATION, you can't just hand wave that away by saying "the economy is stable and still growing."

I’m not sure if that quote is the one I would use as it refers to middle income workers. The article explicitly talks about how lower wage workers have seen gains.

Yes though, the average consumer may want deflation but of course that would be an economic catastrophe. I’m not really arguing the politics of it here, just saying what’s true.

 

[manly]

Keep up your hand waving I guess. 👋

 

[MrSquished]

Again although you're right about the broad strokes, you're vastly overrating how low income people perceive their higher wages. I found the article I was referring to; it includes some real economic data. (And the AP poll from an LAT article I posted about 2 weeks ago ITT.)

Americans are upset about surviving a pandemic and paying for the privilege: 'They want these prices to be back where they were' | Fortune

“Most Americans," says Lisa Cook of the Federal Reserve Cook said, "are not just looking for disinflation. They’re looking for deflation."

fortune.com

Like I've consistently said, when the average consumer wants DEFLATION, you can't just hand wave that away by saying "the economy is stable and still growing."

No. I don't think average consumers want deflation. What they want is better income equality and higher income and benefits relative to the cost of things.
Do you really think they want deflation? They just care of the cost of living. What they ultimately want is to be able to have a better QOL. Actual real substantial wage increases would do the trick. Nobody needs deflation.

 

[fskimospy]

Keep up your hand waving I guess. 👋

I guess I’m confused as to what you are considering hand waving.

I made a basic, factual statement. If people want to say ‘but the politics are different!’, which is fine by me, but that’s not disputing my assertion.

 

[K1052]

No. I don't think average consumers want deflation. What they want is better income equality and higher income and benefits relative to the cost of things.
Do you really think they want deflation? They just care of the cost of living. What they ultimately want is to be able to have a better QOL. Actual real substantial wage increases would do the trick. Nobody needs deflation.

Yeah I’ve heard people ask for deflation. They don’t know what that would mean though.

 

[MrSquished]

Yeah I’ve heard people ask for deflation. They don’t know what that would mean though.

It's just their uninformed way of saying they just want their income vs cost of living to be a better ratio.

Just get them actual real wage gains vs the COL and keep inflation normal and they will be very happy economically. Crowing about the wage gains of the last few years for the poors is just so fucking tone deaf and I don't blame them for not really liking the Dem party if that is what they hear.

 

[manly]

No. I don't think average consumers want deflation. What they want is better income equality and higher income and benefits relative to the cost of things.
Do you really think they want deflation? They just care of the cost of living. What they ultimately want is to be able to have a better QOL. Actual real substantial wage increases would do the trick. Nobody needs deflation.

Read the Fortune article, it explains the psychology at play. Note nobody actually wants deflation as economic policy; unfortunately sustained real wage growth hasn't happened for a very long time (Clinton boom years?).

Remember average consumers aren't economists. If they don't believe they're getting annual 5% salary increases, then they'd prefer the next best thing: 2019 pre-pandemic pricing of goods and services. Obviously that isn't possible or necessarily desirable.

I guess I’m confused as to what you are considering hand waving.

I made a basic, factual statement. If people want to say ‘but the politics are different!’, which is fine by me, but that’s not disputing my assertion.

Your implication here is that a LOT of people, esp. low income earners, should be happy about their "record" real wages. I've shown reasons why this isn't the case but you cling to your cold, hard facts.

I'm too lazy to go suss out the data, but for conjecture's sake, let's say low income earners have experienced a real 5% annualized increase in wages since 2019. This would vastly out-strip the median increase. Do you honestly think that someone who previously earned $12/hour is ecstatic that they're making $14/hour today? The Fortune piece explicitly explains why they aren't, because they spend a much larger percentage of their after-tax income on basic necessities. And some of these every day grocery items have experienced huge price increases over time. From the article:

“At the lower end of the income distribution, people got somewhat higher pay raises,” said Anthony Murphy, a senior economic policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “But I don’t think it compensates them for the fact that inflation was so much higher. They’re consuming a different bundle of goods than the average.”