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2022 US midterms election watch party/thread

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HomerJS said:
I'll be interested how abortion issue helped Dems. I heard in every state that had a referendum vote it was 4-0 with one too early to call to preserve rights
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ABC analysis was that abortion was playing larger than anticipated, depending on the area. Under 30 voters, very especially.
 
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fskimospy said:
I don't know, that looks pretty positive for Democrats to me. Most outstanding ballots are early votes from democratic areas. He seems to be saying Republicans will win if those remaining votes resemble election day votes but I don't see why they would.
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His logic seems off. I got a mail in ballot, and ended up attempting to drop it off at the polling place (couldn't in my state, which is kinds stupid), but ended up putting it in a drop box. It would seem that those early ballots would be heavily D.
 
fskimospy said:
I don't know, that looks pretty positive for Democrats to me. Most outstanding ballots are early votes from democratic areas. He seems to be saying Republicans will win if those remaining votes resemble election day votes but I don't see why they would.
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My understanding of how AZ counts is that mail ballots received substantially before E-Day are counted first, then E-Day, then remaining mail.

Nevada will count mail until Saturday and won't be done processing the dropped ballots from E-day (of which they're are reportedly many) till at least Thursday.
 
MrSquished said:
Came so close in Wisconsin. Ron Johnson is such a piece of shit too.
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Interviewed a Democrat in the ABC coverage studio last night, she was lamenting that there wasn't sufficient support for Johnson's opponent and figures they'll fix that going forward.
 
Muse said:
Interviewed a Democrat in the ABC coverage studio last night, she was lamenting that there wasn't sufficient support for Johnson's opponent and figures they'll fix that going forward.
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Yeah that seems to have been the case in a few races - they did not focus money on the right races. If they invested in the ground game more in WI, we'd have flipped that. NC would have been even closer.
 
Muse said:
Interviewed a Democrat in the ABC coverage studio last night, she was lamenting that there wasn't sufficient support for Johnson's opponent and figures they'll fix that going forward.
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Going forward?? I watched the first Barnes Johnson debate and that should perked up the ears of the WI Democratic Party

Johnson fell on his face and was laughed at. We’re they sleep at the switch??
 
fskimospy said:
I thought the election yesterday was going to be close but Warnock had a slight advantage. I would say Warnock has a large advantage now.
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Not having to fight against the overhead of all the Georgia straight-ticket republican votes should help Warnock far more than the reverse helps Walker, but it will all be about turn out for the special election.
 
Dave_5k said:
Not having to fight against the overhead of all the Georgia straight-ticket republican votes should help Warnock far more than the reverse helps Walker, but it will all be about turn out for the special election.
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That was my thought. I’m sure Kemp had at least some coattails and without them Walker is in trouble. I have not gotten the sense Walker generates a lot of enthusiasm as he’s so obviously insane.
 
fskimospy said:
That was my thought. I’m sure Kemp had at least some coattails and without them Walker is in trouble. I have not gotten the sense Walker generates a lot of enthusiasm as he’s so obviously insane.
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If the Dems manage to lock up senate control out west what's going to be the motivating factor for R voters in GA to turn out for somebody they don't even like in the special? They might but the answer is not at all obvious to me right now. Warnock's voters actually like him and think he does a good job.
 
K1052 said:
Online MAGA world is really having a tough one with this. It's all "Well I guess you love crime and immigrants then".
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Yesterday, I had lunch with some folks that I know, and I'm pretty sure a good chunk of them are Republican or at least identified as right-leaning. At one point, after someone had brought up the election, I'm pretty sure I heard, "It doesn't matter. They're going to try to steal it anyway." 🙄

My mom also asked me some odd questions about "how many illegals we've let in". So, I guess she's part of the whole "dem illegals" camp too. I could attempt to go on about things such as asylum seekers and how that process works, but it doesn't really seem to matter much.
 
K1052 said:
If the Dems manage to lock up senate control out west what's going to be the motivating factor for R voters in GA to turn out for somebody they don't even like in the special? They might but the answer is not at all obvious to me right now. Warnock's voters actually like him and think he does a good job.
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Warnock will win the runoff either way.
 
Aikouka said:
Yesterday, I had lunch with some folks that I know, and I'm pretty sure a good chunk of them are Republican or at least identified as right-leaning. At one point, after someone had brought up the election, I'm pretty sure I heard, "It doesn't matter. They're going to try to steal it anyway." 🙄

My mom also asked me some odd questions about "how many illegals we've let in". So, I guess she's part of the whole "dem illegals" camp too. I could attempt to go on about things such as asylum seekers and how that process works, but it doesn't really seem to matter much.
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I think the party's problem is that it has willfully degenerated into a series of crazy/mean soundbites that reverberate endlessly in their own Information sphere. What policy there is sucks and is unpopular. Were I them I'd be pretty concerned that the messaging imploded with independent and younger voters. If Trump secures the nom for 24 the consequences could be really disastrous electorally.
 
Maloney is going to lose his NY congressional seat.
Also a CT seat looks like its going to flip to red.

So GOP house looking more likely.
 
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