2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[Capt Caveman]

Gasoline Prices Have Familiar Look as Summer Nears

NEW YORK (AP) — The price of gasoline looks familiar this Memorial Day. For the third year in a row, the national average will be within a penny or two of $3.64 per gallon.

Stability wasn’t always the norm. Between 2003 and 2008 average retail gasoline prices more than doubled, reaching an all-time high of $4.11 per gallon in 2008. Prices then collapsed as the U.S. plunged into recession. But after a two-year run-up between 2009 and 2011, the price of gasoline has remained in a range of roughly $3.25 to $3.75 per gallon.

Drivers can handle that, according to AAA, and are ready to head out for Memorial Day driving trips in the highest numbers since 2005. ‘‘It is unlikely that gas prices will have a significant effect on travel plans compared to a year ago,’’ AAA wrote in its annual Memorial Day forecast.

Steady gasoline prices are largely the result of relatively steady crude oil prices, even though there has been a long list of global supply disruptions and political turmoil that that typically would push the price of oil higher.

Sanctions have sharply cut output from Iran, once the world’s third largest oil exporter. Libya went through civil war, and labor and political disruptions continue to limit its exports. Venezuela’s oil output has been steadily declining for a decade. Most recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is raising concerns that sanctions will impact production or exports from Russia, the world’s second largest exporter after Saudi Arabia.

But rising crude output in countries such as the U.S., Canada and Brazil have offset the declining supply elsewhere, helping to keep prices steady.

Approaching this Memorial Day, the national average is $3.65 per gallon, according to AAA, OPIS and Wright Express. Last year on the holiday it was $3.63 per gallon. In 2012 it was $3.64.

The story is similar with other fuels. Through the first quarter of this year airlines are paying $3.03 per gallon for jet fuel — exactly the same they paid on average for all of last year, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The average price of diesel, $3.93 per gallon, is a nickel higher than last year.

Averages only tell part of the story, though. Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service and Gasbuddy.com, compares the national average price of gasoline to the average temperature of the country — outside your door it’s almost certainly hotter or cooler than the average.

This year, drivers in the Midwest, Great Plains states and the Rockies are paying quite a bit less than they did a year ago on Memorial Day weekend. The Minnesota average of $3.49 is 78 cents lower than last year, the biggest drop in the nation. Drivers in North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Iowa and Kansas are all paying at least 50 cents per gallon less.

That’s because last year some big Midwest refineries were taken offline to be upgraded to handle cheaper Canadian crude oil. That work is done and the refineries are churning out a lot of fuel, pushing down prices in the region.

The story is different on the coasts, though. Refineries there have to pay higher prices for global crude, and more refineries are seeing downtime in Texas and Louisiana than in recent springs, according to Kloza. Gulf coast refiners supply much of the nation, and especially the coasts, with fuel.

Pennsylvania drivers are paying $3.77 per gallon on average. That’s 27 cents higher than last year, the biggest increase in the country. Drivers in the Carolinas and Alabama are paying at least 20 cents more than last year, though they are paying less than the national average.

As usual, California drivers are paying the most in the lower 48 states, at $4.15 per gallon, about 10 cents higher than last Memorial Day weekend.

Across the nation, all U.S. drivers will likely be paying less in the coming weeks, the result of a typical seasonal decline between late spring and early summer.

‘‘Temperate-to-lower prices is the most likely path for the next couple of months,’’ Kloza says. ‘‘And then in hurricane season you just cross your fingers.’’

 

[jhu]

The guy you are replying to is part of the reason for the increase in prices. He works for and supports the Oil Industry Cabal.

WTF??? Do you drive a car? Do you take public transportation? Do you own things that contain plastic? Do you take medications? If you answer "yes" to any of these, then you are also supporting the Oil Industry Cabal.

 

[dmcowen674]

Oil Oil everywhere yet now over $104 and rising. Pure bullshit

Gasoline Gasoline everywhere yet as noted in article all over the map in prices.

Complexities of Global Market my ass, the Oil Thugs are simply price gouging because they can.

5-23-2014

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/24/b...l-over-the-map.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

As Summer Driving Beckons, Gasoline Prices Are All Over the Map





The sharp differences in gasoline prices around the country reflect all the complexities of the global energy markets.

As of Friday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.66, a fraction of a cent lower than last year. But the range was sizable: in California, motorists paid on average $4.13 a gallon, while in Missouri and Arkansas only $3.40, according to the AAA daily fuel gauge report.

 

[dmcowen674]

It's over $104 at noon.

5-23-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-edges-toward-104-ahead-121432821.html

Oil edges up toward $104 ahead of US data, holiday

Traders are waiting for a U.S. Commerce Department report on sales of new homes in April, expected later Friday, which may show a healthy American economy. That could help lift energy prices.


Oil reached a one-month high Wednesday of $104.07 a barrel after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed that U.S. crude supplies dropped a bigger-than-expected 7.2 million barrels in the week ended May 16.


"It seems that oil demand has picked up recently as crude oil stocks started to decline after reaching record high levels in previous weeks," said Myrto Sokou of Sucden Financial Research in London. "The recent solid U.S. economic figures could verify this uptrend in the U.S. economy."

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Okay, what are you going to do about it? Post links and articles in an internet forum? Somehow I don't think it will make any difference.

 

[allisolm]

Looks like gas will be around $5 in many places around the Country for this Memorial Day as I said in the beginning of the year. The exact opposite of the so called experts and the oil thug supporters in here.

A week to go and lots of stations well north of $4

A couple of stations in Los Angeles already over $5

http://www.losangelesgasprices.com/

$5.19 76 1004 S La Cienega Blvd & W Olympic Blvd Los Angeles
Lori417 8 hours ago

$5.09 Mobil 11680 Burbank Blvd & Colfax Ave North Hollywood
Samo1961 16 hours ago

http://www.longislandgasprices.com/

http://www.chicagogasprices.com/

Here it is Memorial Day weekend and here is what's going on. Gas is not around $5 in many places around the country. In zero states is the average price anywhere near $5. In only 2 states plus DC is it $4 or more (CA and HI.)

In Los Angeles the price is down about $.05 from when he posted and the same 2 stations are the ONLY 2 reporting gas over $5. No others have joined them.

On Long Island prices are down about $.03 from when he posted.

In Chicago prices are about the same.

Even Indianapolis prices appear to be the same as on 5/15 despite any ups and downs in between and Tallahassee prices also remain the same.

At least Dave doesn't mind putting his predictions out there, no matter how wrong they prove to be.

 

[dmcowen674]

Here it is Memorial Day weekend and here is what's going on. Gas is not around $5 in many places around the country. In zero states is the average price anywhere near $5. In only 2 states plus DC is it $4 or more (CA and HI.)

In Los Angeles the price is down about $.05 from when he posted and the same 2 stations are the ONLY 2 reporting gas over $5. No others have joined them.

On Long Island prices are down about $.03 from when he posted.

In Chicago prices are about the same.

Even Indianapolis prices appear to be the same as on 5/15 despite any ups and downs in between and Tallahassee prices also remain the same.

At least Dave doesn't mind putting his predictions out there, no matter how wrong they prove to be.

Not exactly totally wrong. A couple did go there to $5 as you pointed out.

At $3.89 here that is pretty close to $4 for a product we are swimming in.

However, there is a huge disparity in prices across the country.

They are clearly targeting areas they can fleece more money out of.

There is logistical valid reason for the disparity other that they can.

There is no one and nothing to stop them from this price gouging.

Remember they even admit that due to "contract obligations" to foreign countries they are shipping records amount of gasoline.

That is gasoline that should remain here with lower prices for it here but of course not when you can come up with bullshit excuses to price gouge.

Americans don't seem to mind so they deserve to get shafted without lube.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

However, there is a huge disparity in prices across the country.

They are clearly targeting areas they can fleece more money out of.

There is logistical valid reason for the disparity other that they can.

Yep, those political tax thugs are getting their piece of the pie. In other areas, it the special blends the state require plus the tax thugs getting their cut.

 

[norseamd]

you know unlike gas food prices continue to increase month after month

would be nice to have a official thread where we can talk about what food price increases we are seeing and what and who is causing those food price increases

 

[Londo_Jowo]

would be nice to have a official thread where we can talk about what food price increases we are seeing and what and who is causing those food price increases

So what is preventing you from starting a thread on rising food prices?

 

[norseamd]

So what is preventing you from starting a thread on rising food prices?

nothing

but i am a lazy bastard and i am not that knowledgable on the subject

 

[brianmanahan]

you know unlike gas food prices continue to increase month after month

would be nice to have a official thread where we can talk about what food price increases we are seeing and what and who is causing those food price increases

FOOD CABAL THUGS

either that, or, you know, droughts or something

we should probably have a thread about this

 

[jhu]

Not exactly totally wrong. A couple did go there to $5 as you pointed out.

At $3.89 here that is pretty close to $4 for a product we are swimming in.

However, there is a huge disparity in prices across the country.

They are clearly targeting areas they can fleece more money out of.

There is logistical valid reason for the disparity other that they can.

There is no one and nothing to stop them from this price gouging.

Remember they even admit that due to "contract obligations" to foreign countries they are shipping records amount of gasoline.

That is gasoline that should remain here with lower prices for it here but of course not when you can come up with bullshit excuses to price gouge.

Americans don't seem to mind so they deserve to get shafted without lube.

Our gas prices are among the lowest in the world. Look at the countries that have lower gas prices than us. The only one I'd move to is Malaysia or maybe Indonesia.

How do you reconcile your belief in global warming and your dismay at "high" gas prices?

 

[norseamd]

Malaysia or maybe Indonesia.

cheaper gas is not worth the political and religious climate

 

[Londo_Jowo]

cheaper gas is not worth the political and religious climate

Obviously you've never been to either. I plan on retiring in Indonesia, I have a house, rice paddies, and building bungalows on Bali.

 

[norseamd]

Obviously you've never been to either. I plan on retiring in Indonesia, I have a house, rice paddies, and building bungalows on Bali.

wut?

you are using hindu bali as an example for the rest of maritime southeast asia?

do you remember all of the religious violence that swept the rest of indonesia like all of the church burnings?

 

[Londo_Jowo]

wut?

you are using hindu bali as an example for the rest of maritime southeast asia?

do you remember all of the religious violence that swept the rest of indonesia like all of the church burnings?

I have land on Java as well, my wife's family is from there. Guess you missed the part where Mosques opened their door to Christians so they could celebrate Christmas or protected churches so they could celebrate Christmas. Yes, there are some areas where Muslims and Christians burn each others Churches and Mosques.

 

[norseamd]

I have land on Java as well, my wife's family is from there. Guess you missed the part where Mosques opened their door to Christians so they could celebrate Christmas or protected churches so they could celebrate Christmas. Yes, there are some areas where Muslims and Christians burn each others Churches and Mosques.

well it is a huge country

and i would assume that jakarta and some areas would be peaceful

 

[jhu]

well it is a huge country

and i would assume that jakarta and some areas would be peaceful

Of course. It's like hearing about gang shootings in south Chicago and being worried about living in Portland.

 

[norseamd]

Of course. It's like hearing about gang shootings in south Chicago and being worried about living in Portland.

true but religion can be very powerful

and with social media a rise in fundamentalist behavior could spread very fast

 

[Engineer]

Interesting...

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-of-oil-in-this-american-oil-patch-is-go.aspx

This isn't just a lot of oil. This is a "completely change the dynamics of global production" amount of oil. This is an "enough to supply all of America by itself for more than a decade" amount of oil. If Pioneer's estimates are accurate, and this resource can be de-risked to be considered proved reserves, the U.S. could triple its proved reserves and vault from No. 11 in global reserves to sixth, right behind Iraq. Then there's the really crazy part of all this. Look at the last line of that slide above: Pioneer didn't even include several other potential shale formations that are found in the Permian.

 

[dmcowen674]

Interesting...

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-of-oil-in-this-american-oil-patch-is-go.aspx

The sad part is these Companies will continue to screw over Americans right in their backyard and the oil thugs in here continue to approve of this.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

The sad part is these Companies will continue to screw over Americans right in their backyard and the oil thugs in here continue to approve of this.

I don't think you understand the true cost of extracting and refining the oil. There isn't as much profit as you think and if there is it isn't going to the little guy like me working in the field. The oilfield employs a lot of guys here. One of the few industries that hasn't been completely outsourced and pays a decent wage to Americans such as myself. So yeah it's not such a bad thing.

 

[dmcowen674]

5-26-2014

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...finers-really-want-to-keep-this-regulati.aspx

Why Oil Refiners Really Want to Keep This Regulation in Place



Rex Tillerson, the CEO of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM ) , once said that if oil traded solely based on supply and demand, oil prices would be $60 to $70 a barrel, not $100 a barrel.


The reason for the discrepancy is speculation. Many financial institutions and hedge funds are long oil because they think it will go up in the future. Their net buying causes oil prices to trade substantially higher than what the underlying fundamentals justify.

To export WTI or not to export WTI

Among the many energy regulations, perhaps the most important is the current government restriction on exporting crude oil.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

5-26-2014

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...finers-really-want-to-keep-this-regulati.aspx

Why Oil Refiners Really Want to Keep This Regulation in Place



Rex Tillerson, the CEO of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM ) , once said that if oil traded solely based on supply and demand, oil prices would be $60 to $70 a barrel, not $100 a barrel.


The reason for the discrepancy is speculation. Many financial institutions and hedge funds are long oil because they think it will go up in the future. Their net buying causes oil prices to trade substantially higher than what the underlying fundamentals justify.

To export WTI or not to export WTI

Among the many energy regulations, perhaps the most important is the current government restriction on exporting crude oil.

Wait a minute, before you were pissing and moaning that some oil companies wanted to export oil and now you're pissing and moaning that some want to keep the export restriction in place. What a maroon!!!!!