2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Edit 6-1-2014 - Well as usual I proved the experts wrong. They said gasoline would not spike this year and of course it has. The latest bullshit excuse is because so much gasoline is being exported out of the U.S. refineries.

Well then we obviously need a ban on the export of gasoline.

I started a Petition to the President to ban gasoline exports - sign here

https://www.change.org/petitions/president-of-the-united-states-ban-gasoline-exports



  • Petitioning President of the United States


Ban Gasoline exports



    1. Petition by
      David McOwen
      Indianapolis, IN


2-23-2013

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/23/2014-gasoline-price-forecast.aspx#.UrjfQLSmYlQ

2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

There's some good news this holiday season.

Thanks to America's energy boom we will likely be paying less at the pump in 2014.

Overall, gasoline prices are forecast in 2014 to decline to an average of $3.43 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. That's $0.07 lower than this year's average and $0.20 lower than Americans paid on average for a gallon in 2012.

The following chart from the EIA shows that we can expect gas prices to stay about where they are for the next month or so. After that, gas prices are forecast to heat up as they do every year along with the weather.

What's different for the coming year is that the EIA's forecast doesn't predict a pronounced spike during the summer driving season. While the seasonal pickup is inevitable, continued oil production growth from North Dakota and Texas are expected to make the U.S. less dependent on more expensive foreign oil.

This, along with an increase in fuel-efficient vehicles and the disappearing American driver, are making the summer spikes less pronounced.

Gasoline exports keeping prices elevated

An interesting trend has developed over the past few years that now has America becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products like gasoline. Both Valero and Phillips 66 are investing to grow export capacity in order to sell cheaper American gasoline and diesel to the international marketplace. This actually acts as a headwind to gas prices and counter balances some of the effect of lower crude oil prices.

In fact, over the past few years exports of U.S. refined products have gone from a million barrels per day to more than 3 million barrels per day.

We're using less gasoline in the U.S. due to energy efficiency gains as well as the lingering economic effects of the last recession. Those two trends would have made gas prices much cheaper if we weren't shipping our excess gasoline outside our borders.

It's quite possible that if it weren't for the U.S. being a net exporter of gasoline and other refined products that the price Americans pay at the pump would be even cheaper in 2014.
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Edit: Here is is, less than a month when the experts said we would would not have extreme gas spikes this summer now they realized they fucked up and they are going to screw us over more than ever before.

Here comes the excuses of why the so called experts were wrong.

Ooops we're sorry gasoline will go higher despite there is a shit ton of oil and gasoline just because they can and they call it backwardation.

Like I said, Thugs.

12-17-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-fu...143519115.html

Gasoline prices in the United States have risen nearly six cents a gallon in the past month, and the spot price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has risen from $97.63 at the end of December to $99.47 now, after a brief sojourn last week above $100 a barrel.

We noted Monday morning that gasoline prices remain above $3 a gallon in every state, with a national average of $3.34 a gallon, and we note some of the temporal reasons for the higher prices.

Pump prices are not likely to fall much in the next few months as refineries enter the turnaround period when they stop producing cheaper winter gasoline and begin making more expensive summer fuel.

There may be a more fundamental change also keeping crude oil prices high at a time when U.S. production is at its highest level in more than a dozen years: the futures market is being abandoned by non-commercial (i.e., speculative) participants.

As these market participants leave the market, fewer buyers remain, which lowers the futures price that producers can get as a hedge for future production. The result is an increase in price spreads between current cash spot prices and futures prices -- cash prices rise and futures prices fall. That leads to a market condition called backwardation.

There is evidence that as backwardation increases, stockpiles decrease. Crude prices remain high and so do refined product prices. Energy economist Philip Verleger notes in his latest weekly newsletter:
Looking to the future, we see no reason for commercial inventories to increase.

The market offers no incentive at the moment to build stocks.

To the contrary, it is imposing growing punishments on those who hold oil. For this reason, we agree with the IEA that the glut will be more and more elusive.

In other words, prices will remain high and probably rise even higher as commercial inventories are drawn down.

It looks like summer driving is going to be expensive.

=============================================
So once again I was right and it has nothing to do with supply and demand.

These mother fucker Thugs are simply openly thugging Americans and the American Sheeple are letting them get away with it.

That's why I'm so passionate about this corrupt fucking Industry.
 
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Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
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$3.43 average? Maybe that's why Lexington jumped from $3.09 to $3.45 over the last few days. Mention 'average' and 'gas' in the same story and Lexington jumps every time.

Bought it near Louisville yesterday for $3.09.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,458
987
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For the past couple weeks I've been paying $3.21-$3.25 for 93 octane premium in the DFW area.

When driving to my mother in laws for Christmas, most of the places in between DFW and Amarillo, were charging $3.49-$3.59 for 90 octane premium(wtf? 90 octane premium? I thought 91 was the lowest premium could be?). Then in Amarilllo it was $3.05 for 90 octane premium.
 

nehalem256

Lifer
Apr 13, 2012
15,669
8
0
While the seasonal pickup is inevitable, continued oil production growth from North Dakota and Texas are expected to make the U.S. less dependent on more expensive foreign oil.

Seems like Sarah Palin's "Drill baby drill!" energy strategy is working():)
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
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I predict $9 a gallon gas. It was right next to the $5 milk.

I forget - which is you want, expensive gas to ward off global warming, or cheap gasoline so all the minimum wage proles can afford to drive? And yes, I know you also support raising tax rates significantly to support a "Manhattan Project" style push for alternative energy, but we'll need to decide what to do with gasoline prices in the meantime until your magic unicorn fart energy source comes online after multiple trillions of dollars spent.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,414
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drive for $3.43 doesn't have quite the ring to it
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
I'd like to know what's up with E85 pricing?
Seems to me ethanol is cutting into oil company profits.
And they damn well are not going to allow that.... anymore.
And silly people believed US oil companies were our friend.
Or wouldn't cut our throats just as easily as any Saudi based company would.
Silly consumers ....
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,328
126
I'd like to know what's up with E85 pricing?
Seems to me ethanol is cutting into oil company profits.
And they damn well are not going to allow that.... anymore.
And silly people believed US oil companies were our friend.
Or wouldn't cut our throats just as easily as any Saudi based company would.
Silly consumers ....

WTF are you talking about?

First of all Ethonal is highly subsidized by the .gov and how exactly are they cutting our throats by exporting excess refined products out of the country? Do you even realize that a fuckton of that export is built into the deal with our largest oil importer??? Mexico, our largest oil external oil supplier has a fuckton of extra oil but not enough refining capacity so they sell us their oil and we refine a bit of it and sell it back to them. Why would any sane person have an issue with that?
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,452
9,837
136
For the past couple weeks I've been paying $3.21-$3.25 for 93 octane premium in the DFW area.

When driving to my mother in laws for Christmas, most of the places in between DFW and Amarillo, were charging $3.49-$3.59 for 90 octane premium(wtf? 90 octane premium? I thought 91 was the lowest premium could be?). Then in Amarilllo it was $3.05 for 90 octane premium.

The higher in elevation you go, the lower the octane rating needs to be, because the overall pressure in the engine decreases. When I was in CO this summer, I saw premium 87, cost more than premium 93 in Tulsa.
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,433
204
106
Oil and gas companies should export it unless you want to hoard it.
Dumbarses used to bitch no new refineries built in the last 30 yrs! ignoring the fact all the existing refineries increased capacity and older inefficient refineries shutdown ending up in a net increase in refining capacity.

Now that the companies have built to meet US demand they are to be punished by not trying to make a profit, yes it is a business they are entitled, you aren't entitled to cheap gas. If foreign markets are where their excess capacity is to go for them to remain viable due to decreased domestic demand that's called the market.
 
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Ackmed

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2003
8,476
523
126
Why the fuck do you always post a topic, and then make the first response? Seriously, just shut the fuck up. You're doom and gloom, agenda pushing style of posts are annoying. I wish there was a way to ignore someone on these forums. I never know it's you until it's too late.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
I dunno probably $3.60 average.

We won't see $4+ gas being the norm until 2018 or so. and $5+ gas in 2024 or so I think is my guesstimate.

If there was another rip higher in price like in '08 where it was way above the norm of ~$2.70 to $4.00 then it crashed down to $1.55. Remember it like it was yesterday. Would be no different today. If it rose to $5 it'd crash to $2.
 

allisolm

Elite Member
Administrator
Jan 2, 2001
24,973
4,303
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$3.43 average? Maybe that's why Lexington jumped from $3.09 to $3.45 over the last few days. Mention 'average' and 'gas' in the same story and Lexington jumps every time.

Bought it near Louisville yesterday for $3.09.

But it is still $2.99 at Sam's Club in Lexington. Just bought some.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
I traveled from Texas to Virginia last Sunday/Monday and returned home yesterday/today, the most I paid for gas during the trip was $3.16/gal and the other fill ups were between $3.05/gal to $3.09/gal. Gas were I live are still below $3.00/gal.

States I traveled through were Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Temnesee, and Virginia.
 

ralfy

Senior member
Jul 22, 2013
485
53
91
FWIW, oil producers may sell to buyers who offer higher prices.

Also, I remember before 2005 it was predicted that by 2010 the oil price would drop to less than $30 while production would soar to more than 100 Mb/d. Now, it's triple the price and conventional production hardly reaching 80 Mb/d.
 

JMapleton

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2008
4,179
2
81
What's up with dwcowen's obsession with gas prices and his seemly inability to predict it accurately?

He has his "liberal dream" President in office and he is still looking for ways the country will fail. Is Obama not liberal enough? Do you want Stalin or Mao as President?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
But it is still $2.99 at Sam's Club in Lexington. Just bought some.

Prices are down to $3.32 at the mainstream stations. I don't have a SAM's or Costco membership and not sure even if I did it would be worth the drive all the way out there to get it. I would probably use more gas than the savings involved.
 
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