2009 Oil Price Thread

[Special K]

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: dainthomas

Originally posted by: Special K
Gas prices seem to keep slowly inching up, despite oil holding steady at about $40/barrel. It's gone from $1.75->$1.85 over the past couple weeks here in Austin.

Are there any (non-conspiracy) reasons for this?

Or is it actually a conspiracy?

In reality, gas should lag oil adjustments by 3-4 weeks. That is the time to get from the wellhead to the pump.

As we know, last year, reality was on vacation

I heard it was because refineries were cutting production of gasoline due to falling demand.

 

[Nocturnal]

Gas is at Nymex Crude Future 35.94 -1.61 -4.29 17:14 .

Why the drop?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: dainthomas

Originally posted by: Special K
Gas prices seem to keep slowly inching up, despite oil holding steady at about $40/barrel. It's gone from $1.75->$1.85 over the past couple weeks here in Austin.

Are there any (non-conspiracy) reasons for this?

Or is it actually a conspiracy?

In reality, gas should lag oil adjustments by 3-4 weeks. That is the time to get from the wellhead to the pump.

As we know, last year, reality was on vacation

I heard it was because refineries were cutting production of gasoline due to falling demand.

It must be something like that. Oil dropped low and gas followed aggressively, but gas is now higher than it was when oil was at this price on the way down and oil, despite going up again in Jan, is slowly on its way down again, to the chagrin of gas prices. Clearly they are still married, but like a man and wife the direction of one does not unequivocally dictate the direction of the other. I thought they loved each other more when I said gas would go down in January :brokenheart:

 

[Wonderful Pork]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: dainthomas

Originally posted by: Special K
Gas prices seem to keep slowly inching up, despite oil holding steady at about $40/barrel. It's gone from $1.75->$1.85 over the past couple weeks here in Austin.

Are there any (non-conspiracy) reasons for this?

Or is it actually a conspiracy?

In reality, gas should lag oil adjustments by 3-4 weeks. That is the time to get from the wellhead to the pump.

As we know, last year, reality was on vacation

I heard it was because refineries were cutting production of gasoline due to falling demand.

It must be something like that. Oil dropped low and gas followed aggressively, but gas is now higher than it was when oil was at this price on the way down and oil, despite going up again in Jan, is slowly on its way down again, to the chagrin of gas prices. Clearly they are still married, but like a man and wife the direction of one does not unequivocally dictate the direction of the other. I thought they loved each other more when I said gas would go down in January :brokenheart:

So...when demand rises, gas prices go up. But then when it falls, gas prices still go up?! Talk about a Catch-22

In any case, I record my mileage/price every time I fill up, and since Dec 30 gas has gone up by about 10c every 2 weeks with no real appreciable change in oil prices. 1.539 (12/30) - 1.679 (1/14) - 1.779 (1/27) - 1.879 (2/10), Boston Metro area BTW. It was 1.919 today at the station I filled up at yesterday.

 

[blackangst1]

[sarcasm] We clearly need the government to set prices. This free market thing isnt working. [/sarcasm]

 

[StageLeft]

Talks about refinery cut backs

 

[Special K]

Oil jumps 10% as house OK's stimulus

I'm sure this will be reflected in pump prices by tomorrow morning

 

[dainthomas]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Talks about refinery cut backs

Yay! It's almost time for the annual "refinery maintenance" scam!

But gas prices will probably keep going up, as they often do in late winter and early spring, when refineries traditionally conduct annual maintenance on their facilities, said Peter Beutel of energy risk firm Cameron Hanover.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: Special K
Oil jumps 10% as house OK's stimulus

I'm sure this will be reflected in pump prices by tomorrow morning

When oil goes up, the price of gas goes up the next day. When oil goes down, the price of gas still goes up but they give us a week or two. What a fucking racket.

 

[BarneyFife]

Analyst predicts 2.50 before Spring

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...aper-apf-14367525.html

Must be huge demand in this sorry world economy?

 

[moparacer]

Originally posted by: BarneyFife
Analyst predicts 2.50 before Spring

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...aper-apf-14367525.html

Must be huge demand in this sorry world economy?

So the way I read it its easier to pump the more expensive oil out of the ground overseas and float it across the Atlantic?

BS meter showing signs of going off on this one......

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: BarneyFife
Analyst predicts 2.50 before Spring

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...aper-apf-14367525.html

Must be huge demand in this sorry world economy?

He said $2.50 before Mar 21st. I'd put money on that not being the case. Gas has more wiggle room than I thought based on crude prices, but ultimately oil is going to have to get a good bit of upward traction before gas averages $2.50, which is more than $.50 higher than it is now. Clearly, a modicum of good news could send oil up $10-20, just as bad has sent it down magnitudes more in short periods of time, but still $2.50 seems pretty pessimistic that soon.

 

[StageLeft]

Hey, any ideas on how to invest in oil? Would it be OIL--that seems to be pegged pretty close to oil's overall market price. I know oil-producing companies are an option, too. There is USO, which is seemingly US-only, is that right?

Any reason to pick one over the other?

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Hey, any ideas on how to invest in oil? Would it be OIL--that seems to be pegged pretty close to oil's overall market price. I know oil-producing companies are an option, too. There is USO, which is seemingly US-only, is that right?

Any reason to pick one over the other?

Brent crude futures if youre feeling brave..or there are several mutual funds and ETF's that invest in energy.

 

[alien42]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Hey, any ideas on how to invest in oil? Would it be OIL--that seems to be pegged pretty close to oil's overall market price. I know oil-producing companies are an option, too. There is USO, which is seemingly US-only, is that right?

Any reason to pick one over the other?

check out the ETNs DXO and DTO

 

[StageLeft]

A strangely timed article from cnn about gas nearing $2 and going up. However, I've been watching fuelgaugereport.com and for the last severa days gas has in fact been going down. It's down about 5 cents now to $1.91 according to that site.

 

[Nocturnal]

Damn oil up to $45 as of 2/26. Not good. What's causing it to go up?

 

[StageLeft]

OPEC is cutting a bit, inventories are a touch down, and there is concern that it was simply underpriced, which I think a lot of people have been saying; after the bubble burst, the price got too low. This is why I wanted to buy something related to it.

I have a small number of shares in one oil company and have been trying to buy more for a day now but my account is messed at my brokerage . I think that at sub $40 the price of oil was just lower than it really ought to be once the economy is not a complete mess.

Gas is going down again, though--a penny a day for the past several days.

 

[Special K]

It seems like oil jumps $5/bbl on even the slightest whiff of good news these days. It's currently at ~$45/bbl. It's like there are a bunch of people on the sidelines just itching for the chance to pour a ton of money back into oil.

 

[Special K]

Oil has now broken $50/bbl. How high do you think it will get this year? Is there a fundamental supply/demand change going on now, or is the price of oil just riding on the recent bull run we have seen in the stock market?

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Special K
Oil has now broken $50/bbl. How high do you think it will get this year? Is there a fundamental supply/demand change going on now, or is the price of oil just riding on the recent bull run we have seen in the stock market?

Demand is low, and inventories are overflowng, thus production has slowed. There are all kinds of armchair oil specialists on this board, but I honestly dont see it going above $70 this year, and then probably only for a short time. Barring some disaster of course.

*shrug* Just my opinion.

 

[Nocturnal]

Does anyone see oil prices going up again to a very high point and then oil usage dropping even lower than it is now? What would the outcome be? OPEC would just cut production even more up huh?

 

[Special K]

Oil prices have been rising right along with the stock market over the past month, and gas prices seem to have been rising along with the oil prices. Can someone explain that to me? Investors buy oil contracts and have no intention of taking possession of the physical oil, yet everyone is forced to pay more for real gas because of it? How does that work?

 

[hiromizu]

I've been doing some research on oil and global energy over the last few weeks and have thrown a lot of money at it and if my knowledge is correct, oil should conservatively reach $60 per barrel in the next few months. Meanwhile the price regardless of market conditions shouldn't drop much lower than $45 until then. It is currently around $52. I think it's almost a guaranteed 20% profit from this point on if you're patient. There are probably other better investments out there but conservatively speaking, I think oil has a greater chance of upside than anything else.

 

[soccerballtux]

If it's clear oil will go up and 20% profit can be made, then why haven't more people bought into it (driving the price up to $60 now)? It's virtually impossible to find an already unexploited opportunity in the market, saying there's one in something as big and prominent as oil is really going out on a limb...