Zogby: McCain Leading by 4%

[ProfJohn]

RCP eletcoral map
This is the no toss up map.

Obama is winning 273-265.
McCain has to steal a state from him at this point.
Colorado or New Hampshire (which would tie them) seem the most likely of the two.

Florida is solidly McCain at this point with a 3 point lead. I don't see Obama winning the state. Obama has been behind in the state the entire election. The last poll to come out in Florida was taken during the Dems convention so I wouldn't get to excited about the fact that Obama is leading in it. Every other poll taken since July has shown a McCain lead and many of those were outside the margin of error.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

The wife of the guy who she supposedly had the affair with is denying it ever took place.

The fact that we are talking about this subject to such depth is amazing.
Gennifer Flowers came out and said "I had an affair with Bill Clinton" and even had recordings on her answering machine of Bill and yet the press left the story alone.

Now we have unnamed sources suggesting an affair and the media is in a feeding frenzy.

And you wonder why the right complains about media bias.

Saying that the media ignored the Gennifer Flowers affair is absurd. GHWB's entire campaign was focused on "character," and Bil land Hillary had to go on 60 Minutes to confront the issue. Ultimately the Republican effort to focus the public on "family values" failed in 1992, but it wasn't because of a lack of media attention. Ironically, GHWB's own extramarital dalliances actually were swept under the rug, probably because Clinton couldn't credibly make an issue out of it.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
RCP eletcoral map
This is the no toss up map.

Obama is winning 273-265.
McCain has to steal a state from him at this point.
Colorado or New Hampshire (which would tie them) seem the most likely of the two.

Florida is solidly McCain at this point with a 3 point lead. I don't see Obama winning the state. Obama has been behind in the state the entire election. The last poll to come out in Florida was taken during the Dems convention so I wouldn't get to excited about the fact that Obama is leading in it. Every other poll taken since July has shown a McCain lead and many of those were outside the margin of error.

Why do you say FLorida is solid McCain? I think FL is a state where Biden v. Palin may pay off.

And a tie means Obama victory. And a tie is increasingly likely because Obama's domination in Iowa and N. Mexico sets up several 269 possibilities. For example, all kerry states, plus iowa, plus n.m plus nevada = 269 (I think too lazy to check the math)

Colorado is going to be tough for mccain because he attacked their water. NH is a very good possibility for him.

And also, Rasmussen has it tied at 48 each, which is odd considering they have higher republican samples typically. I think a 1-2 point McCain lead is the more likely at this point.

 

[GroundedSailor]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: JS80
Bush isn't unpopular because he's too conservative...he's unpopular because he's too liberal and big government.

You must have had a sip of whatever Mitt Romney is drinking.

I love how you people view conservatism. Conservatism never fails, it is only failed. Every time a conservative politician, in Bush's case an EXTREMELY conservative politician screws something up, it's always because he just wasn't quite conservative enough to make it work.

Sure it is.

Which of Bush's policies are considered "conservative"? I were born yesterday I would have guessed a big government liberal was running the show the last 8 years.

His policy on abortion.
His policy on police powers.
His policy on taxes.
His policy on business regulation.
His policy on the environment.
His policy on the military.
His policy on social security.
His policy on education.

... need I go on? "BUT BUT MEDICARE" does not make up for him being ultra right wing on nearly every other issue. Face it, Bush is a conservative, and with him conservatism failed... horribly.

The Medicare bill was part of a long standing Republican policy of ending social net programs. If you cant get rid of it because it is too popular, then go the other way buy bankrupting it. Part D is a program run by the pharmaceutical companies not by Medicare. It's a blatant giveway to the Pharma companies.

 

[mshan]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...ate_in_the_making.html

 

[retrospooty]

The problem with all of these polls is that its Obama vs McCain... They leave out Barr and Nader. Most polls that include them, nader is getting 2-3% (taken away primarily from Obama) and Barr is 6-7% (taken away primarily from McCain). This was all before the Palin thing though... It will be interesting to see what it would be now... I am sure its going to be close.

 

[ProfJohn]

Don, please don't ever post from the phone again.

When you get home you will see what I mean

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: mshan
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...ate_in_the_making.html

That article is a month and a half old.
In that time Obama has been cutting back on advertising in many of the states he claimed he was going to go after.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Don, please don't ever post from the phone again.
When you get home you will see what I mean

:thumbsup: I've seen god-awful run-on sentences before, but a run-on word??

 

[mshan]

Just like Bush; just ignore facts you don't like.

I linked that article from a website you always refer to to provide some sort of baseline perspective, just like The Poblano Effect article (put out before FiveThirtyEight website was created, so presumably less influenceable, at that point, by outside forces).

Are they going to predict what is going to happen on November 4? No, but they probably provide more useful information than generic national polls from questionable pollsters.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

Originally posted by: DuffmanOhYeah

Thanks for the links. I find it interesting however that there is an incongruity between both names and likely dates. The court filings are for a divorce between "Richter, Scott Alan and Richter, Deborah Marie" while The First Post reports the name of the alleged suitor as "Brad Hanson." Link to First Post article

Additionally, the "affair" allegedly took place in the mid-90s and the dissolution was filed in 2007. Not that these details cant come out at a later time, but it certainly seems as though if nothing else, it would not have been the catalyst for divorce.

Any reconciliation?

No idea. I wasn't really aware of the alleged paramour's name and can't account for the difference.

The date issue wouldn't mean the affair couldn't have been referenced in a much later divorce proceedings as part of the cause for the divorce. Obviously without knowing anything about the circumstances of the alleged affair it's hard to know whether the allegation is credible or relevant. We shall see . . .

The wife of the guy who she supposedly had the affair with is denying it ever took place.

The fact that we are talking about this subject to such depth is amazing.
Gennifer Flowers came out and said "I had an affair with Bill Clinton" and even had recordings on her answering machine of Bill and yet the press left the story alone.

Now we have unnamed sources suggesting an affair and the media is in a feeding frenzy.

And you wonder why the right complains about media bias.

Good thing the right never started pushing crap like Obama had a gay affair, or was a militant muslim ect :laugh:

 

[ProfJohn]

What facts?? The article says in its first sentence that it is 'speculation.'

 

[Gothgar]

This country doesn't need a new president, we need a new fucking government.

It hardly matters who wins, because the same shit government will still be in charge.

 

[mshan]

"According to the baseline, if 2008 turnout levels mirror those in 2004, McCain is predicted to win Ohio by 1.6 percent. But when you increase African-American voters by 20 percent, the state tips towards Obama, giving him a 0.3 percent margin of victory. Push that up to 30 and 40 percent and his edge increases to 1.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively."

"Poblano's baseline predicts a 6.6 percent margin of victory for McCain in North Carolina. But if you hike black turnout by 30 percent, that margin shrinks to just 0.9 percent. And when you reach a 40 percent increase, Obama takes the state."

"Virginia follows much the same trend. A 30 percent increase in turnout slices McCain's margin of victory from 4.5 to 0.5 percent. And once again, at the 40 percent level, Obama wins."


X Factor for a state like Ohio is how much Hillary eroded that 2004 baseline for Obama, even though it looks like a statistical dead heat right now. If you look at favorables / unfavorables in your Rasmussen daily poll, Obama has higher negatives, which to me implies he has room to increase his margins if he can make people comfortable with him (e. g. small rallies in counties where Hillary ran up 2:1 margins on him during Democratic Primary, or where McCain is expected to trounce him similarly in battleground states).

 

[alphatarget1]

Originally posted by: mshan
"According to the baseline, if 2008 turnout levels mirror those in 2004, McCain is predicted to win Ohio by 1.6 percent. But when you increase African-American voters by 20 percent, the state tips towards Obama, giving him a 0.3 percent margin of victory. Push that up to 30 and 40 percent and his edge increases to 1.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively."

"Poblano's baseline predicts a 6.6 percent margin of victory for McCain in North Carolina. But if you hike black turnout by 30 percent, that margin shrinks to just 0.9 percent. And when you reach a 40 percent increase, Obama takes the state."

"Virginia follows much the same trend. A 30 percent increase in turnout slices McCain's margin of victory from 4.5 to 0.5 percent. And once again, at the 40 percent level, Obama wins."


X Factor for a state like Ohio is how much Hillary eroded that 2004 baseline for Obama, even though it looks like a statistical dead heat right now. If you look at favorables / unfavorables in your Rasmussen daily poll, Obama has higher negatives, which to me implies he has room to increase his margins if he can make people comfortable with him (e. g. small rallies in counties where Hillary ran up 2:1 margins on him during Democratic Primary, or where McCain is expected to trounce him similarly in battleground states).

Yeah blame Hillary! An Obamabot is trying to find excuses for Obama's demise in the GE already

 

[mshan]

"McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men." http://www.rasmussenreports.co...idential_tracking_poll

9/10 Republicans had fallen in line behind McCain well before their convention. Right after the Democratic Primary ended, 20% of Hillary's supporters said they woulld vote for McCain (historically that number is 10%). There may have been another 20% of Hillary supporters who were non-commital then. That 20% may have fallen in line behind Obama, but the other 20% might require some more work.


Chuck Todd:
"Last night, John McCain wrapped up the final night of a two-week convention and VP rollout blitz as we now head into the 60-day sprint until Election Day. But McCain's speech seemed to be a missed opportunity. It appears the campaign decided it simply needed to get through it -- there wasn't anything new, except a longer description of his POW days. Perhaps Sarah Palin is new enough, and last night's speech was about reassurance. McCain used the word fight (or a variation of it) some 25 times, change 10 times, and experience just three. So by the numbers, McCain was trying to send the message that he was a fighting-warrior-for-change candidate that has enough experience to make it happen. That was the goal, but we'll know in a few days if that message was received. The number to look for in the polls isn't the head-to-head; it'll be whether the percentage of voters who believe McCain will follow Bush's policies closely has actually dropped." Link

 

[mshan]

"Much of the briefing covered specifics on the focus on turnout by the Obama campaign and their massive effort to "adjust the electorate" to their benefit. He cited several examples, including Florida where he claimed that roughly 600,000 African Americans that were registered but did not vote in 2004, with more than half of that group coming from African Americans under 40 years of age. "If we just execute on turnout" in Florida, he said, "we're going to be bumping up on our win number." They also believe they can keep states like Virginia and North Carolina competitive if they "blow the doors off turnout."
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/..._obama_and_polling.php

 

[Stoneburner]

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...idential_tracking_poll

only showing a 1 point lead for mccain. I think Rasmussen's methodology may account better for ephemeral shifts in voting. THey gave obama the lowest bounce last week too. Also, their numbers tend to over-represent republicans.

 

[mshan]

Bill Clinton is scheduled to meet with Obama in NYC on 9/11.

Seems like a brilliant tactic by both Obama and Clinton, because:
- it will overshadow the bipartisan visit of McLame and Obama to ground zero
- Bill Clinton now has the opportunity to ride in and appear to "save" the Democratic Party, restoring the luster to his reputation that he lost during the Democratic Primaries

When the dust clears from all of these convention bounces, I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama consistently back up by at least one new additional point nationally (say 3%, vs prior 2% baseline) because simply because he will bring a lot of fickle Hillary supporters back to the party base.

 

[jpeyton]

Here is the change you can "believe in".

 

[Druidx]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Here is the change you can "believe in".

Can I Play?"

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Druidx

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Here is the change you can "believe in".

Can I Play?"

Sure, especially if that's the best you got

 

[Ferocious]

what's with all the political virgins??

no one ever hear of a convention bounce? 10 point bounces are common.

This will be a tight race...which is yet another testament to the outstanding campaigning and marketing abilities of the GOP and the outright stupidity of the Dems.

 

[Druidx]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Sure, especially if that's the best you got

Doesn't take much to keep up with the likes of you.

 

[Stoneburner]

I would like to see some state polls. When are they expected? Right before the dem convention Mason Dixon showed Obama up 2 in FLorida.