Question Zen2 CPU prices Increasing; Not a good sign for Zen3?

[VirtualLarry]

Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

 

[chrisjames61]

Producing 14nm has become super cheap after so many pluses and being able to finally add additional cores without killing off AMD completely made them able to sell much more product.
A lot of people wouldn't upgrade their systems because going from 4/8 cores to 4/8 cores wasn't enough of an upgrade for most people.
If they added more cores before ZEN came out AMD would be dead right now but with ZEN AMD still makes enough to at least stay above water.

"but with ZEN AMD still makes enough to at least stay above water."? Are you kidding? Their are plenty of reputable sources that show how much market share AMD has taken away from Intel since 2017. I would hardly call what AMD as doing as just staying above water.

 

[jpiniero]

Are you kidding? Their are plenty of reputable sources that show how much market share AMD has taken away from Intel since 2017. I would hardly call what AMD as doing as just staying above water.

It hasn't really led to big profits... yet anyway. This quarter will be good for AMD because of the consoles.

 

[TheELF]

"but with ZEN AMD still makes enough to at least stay above water."? Are you kidding? Their are plenty of reputable sources that show how much market share AMD has taken away from Intel since 2017. I would hardly call what AMD as doing as just staying above water.

Advanced Micro Devices Net Income (Quarterly) Analysis | YCharts

In depth view into Advanced Micro Devices Net Income (Quarterly) including historical data from 1973, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

Intel Net Income (Quarterly) Analysis | YCharts

In depth view into Intel Net Income (Quarterly) including historical data from 1972, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

Looking at the last 10 quarters,after 2017 because if we include the previous quarters of loss it wouldn't even be worth talking about it, AMD averages out at 100mil per quarter while intel is around 5 bil average...
AMD has to continue to increase their net income for like a century or something to become a danger to intel.

 

[TheELF]

It hasn't really led to big profits... yet anyway. This quarter will be good for AMD because of the consoles.

If sony/microsoft are buying the cpus in the coming quarter than the consoles will be out in a year or more from now.

 

[chrisjames61]

Advanced Micro Devices Net Income (Quarterly) Analysis | YCharts

In depth view into Advanced Micro Devices Net Income (Quarterly) including historical data from 1973, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

Intel Net Income (Quarterly) Analysis | YCharts

In depth view into Intel Net Income (Quarterly) including historical data from 1972, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

Looking at the last 10 quarters,after 2017 because if we include the previous quarters of loss it wouldn't even be worth talking about it, AMD averages out at 100mil per quarter while intel is around 5 bil average...
AMD has to continue to increase their net income for like a century or something to become a danger to intel.

Now it is "net income"? We were talking about AMD gaining market share?

 

[Kenmitch]

Now it is "net income"? We were talking about AMD gaining market share?

Somebody's got to defend Intel's honor. Probably uses the Intel jingle as his ringtone.

 

[Zucker2k]

Somebody's got to defend Intel's honor. Probably uses the Intel jingle as his ringtone.

Do you have the AMD jingle as a ringtone?

Now it is "net income"? We were talking about AMD gaining market share?

Does market share have no bearing on net income?

 

[moinmoin]

It hasn't really led to big profits... yet anyway.

They went into repaying debts and increasing R&D.

 

[Thibsie]

Somebody's got to defend Intel's honor. Probably uses the Intel jingle as his ringtone.

Witeken ?

 

[Kenmitch]

Witeken ?

You mean defend the honor?

 

[Kenmitch]

Do you have the AMD jingle as a ringtone?

I always use the standard Samsung one....AMD doesn't even have a jingle.

 

[Thibsie]

You mean defend the honor?

Non, not quite indeed.
He's not defending any honor, certainly not his.

 

[DrMrLordX]

If sony/microsoft are buying the cpus in the coming quarter than the consoles will be out in a year or more from now.

You should already know the console release date for the next Xbox (November). Why even make patently false statements like that?

Xbox Series X review

Microsoft's Xbox Series X is undeniably fast – but lacks the wow factor

www.techradar.com

 

[badb0y]

Does market share have no bearing on net income?

Umm, not really. In the most basic sense market-share is comment on how much product in a given market is sold by a single entity while net income is just Revenue - Expenses. There's instances in the market where someone with a small market share may generate a lot of net income and where someone with a lot of market-share may generate less income then it's competitors. But if you are specifically talking about market-share I don't see how net income comes into play here.

 

[A///]

You should already know the console release date for the next Xbox (November). Why even make patently false statements like that?

Xbox Series X review

Microsoft's Xbox Series X is undeniably fast – but lacks the wow factor

www.techradar.com

FUD, plain and simple.

Non, not quite indeed.
He's not defending any honor, certainly not his.

He's a lot worse than Monsieur Petit Cerveau when it comes to cheerleading for Intel. Going through his tweets makes you sick.

 

[Thibsie]

He's a lot worse than Monsieur Petit Cerveau when it comes to cheerleading for Intel. Going through his tweets makes you sick.

Either very funny or the opposite.
Really looks like a paid for guy.

The other one you cite is completely delusional though. But such a high opinion of himself, never thought I'd witness such behaviour.

 

[A///]

Either very funny or the opposite.
Really looks like a paid for guy.

The other one you cite is completely delusional though. But such a high opinion of himself, never thought I'd witness such behaviour.

Is it bad I have no idea who you're referring to specifically with either part of your post? Assuming you're talking about junior in the first half, he may very well be. He's much younger than I originally thought he was. He'll just block you if you correct him with the right answer or prove him wrong, then call you an AMD shill. In fact, he's now convinced AMD has so much money they hired a PR firm to globally tackle any anti-AMD commentary online or in print...

AT doesn't have a smiley for a head smashing against a brick wall, just imagine one.

 

[Thibsie]

Sorry, that will be clearer:
First two lines refer to Witeken (twitter).

Delusional is indeed Petit cerveau as you call him (like very much the expression btw). Piednoel, such a smart guy. LOL

 

[A///]

Sorry, that will be clearer:
First two lines refer to Witeken (twitter).

Delusional is indeed Petit cerveau as you call him (like very much the expression btw). Piednoel, such a smart guy. LOL

Oh, no. I understood you. What I meant is that your entire post can be applied to both individuals.

 

[Zucker2k]

I always use the standard Samsung one....AMD doesn't even have a jingle.

Good for you!

 

[Zucker2k]

Umm, not really. In the most basic sense market-share is comment on how much product in a given market is sold by a single entity while net income is just Revenue - Expenses. There's instances in the market where someone with a small market share may generate a lot of net income and where someone with a lot of market-share may generate less income then it's competitors. But if you are specifically talking about market-share I don't see how net income comes into play here.

Could you frame this response in the context of AMD's rising market share and its relationship to their net income?

 

[Thibsie]

Oh, no. I understood you. What I meant is that your entire post can be applied to both individuals.

Oh, got it.
IMO one knows very much was he's writing (BS, we agree).
The French one, I'm not sure. It seems he's on something. Seems powerful 😁

 

[chrisjames61]

Could you frame this response in the context of AMD's rising market share and its relationship to their net income?

Well, Apple has 13% smart phone market share yet gobbles up most of the net profits. 66% which is incredible on only 32% overall revenue.

 

[Doug S]

Well, Apple has 13% smart phone market share yet gobbles up most of the net profits. 66% which is incredible on only 32% overall revenue.

For many years Intel got over 100% of x86 net profit, because AMD was losing money. Higher end server and laptop CPUs are particularly lucrative, that's where you make the biggest margins. The CPUs that go in the $300 Best Buy specials make you very little, and that's where AMD has been relegated for much of their history.

Now that AMD has more competitive products, they have a chance to start taking Intel's market share in those lucrative segments. It takes time for companies to qualify new designs, particularly for servers, and especially if they are switching vendors. They also need assurance they will get the quantities they need so they don't have tell customers they have to wait months for delivery - and that's particularly important in higher end products where the biggest CPU margins are. They don't care too much if they run short of those $300 Best Buy specials but you don't want to run short of the $2000 high end laptop, or top tier blade servers that some companies order by the thousand.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of AMD's current profits aren't going toward deposits or prepaying or whatever TSMC requires to guarantee future fab capacity. Then they can guarantee to the OEMs that they can deliver in the quantity they will need, and get those lucrative design wins. That's when AMD will start eating into Intel's profit margins, when you start seeing companies like Dell announcing $2000 laptops with an AMD CPU, or a new line of servers where they talk about high performance not low price.

 

[chrisjames61]

For many years Intel got over 100% of x86 net profit, because AMD was losing money. Higher end server and laptop CPUs are particularly lucrative, that's where you make the biggest margins. The CPUs that go in the $300 Best Buy specials make you very little, and that's where AMD has been relegated for much of their history.

Now that AMD has more competitive products, they have a chance to start taking Intel's market share in those lucrative segments. It takes time for companies to qualify new designs, particularly for servers, and especially if they are switching vendors. They also need assurance they will get the quantities they need so they don't have tell customers they have to wait months for delivery - and that's particularly important in higher end products where the biggest CPU margins are. They don't care too much if they run short of those $300 Best Buy specials but you don't want to run short of the $2000 high end laptop, or top tier blade servers that some companies order by the thousand.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of AMD's current profits aren't going toward deposits or prepaying or whatever TSMC requires to guarantee future fab capacity. Then they can guarantee to the OEMs that they can deliver in the quantity they will need, and get those lucrative design wins. That's when AMD will start eating into Intel's profit margins, when you start seeing companies like Dell announcing $2000 laptops with an AMD CPU, or a new line of servers where they talk about high performance not low price.

That is a very good analysis. Elf won't like it though lol!