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Question Zen2 CPU prices Increasing; Not a good sign for Zen3?

VirtualLarry

Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
48,834
5,327
126
Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.
 
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Markfw

CPU Moderator, VC&G Moderator, Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 16, 2002
20,606
8,463
136
Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.
I think you are reading it all wrong.

Talk to me in a few months when Zen 3 comes out.
 

VirtualLarry

Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
48,834
5,327
126
I think no more than 5% increase in performance over Zen2 at ISO clocks, with similar memory clocks. In both gaming and productivity. Except for maybe one or two outliers, like Zen2 and CS:GO.

I expect maybe 100-200Mhz more, like the XT editions of Zen2.
 

UsandThem

Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 4, 2000
13,315
3,962
146
Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.
Pricing has been affected by multiple issues this year, so no connections (that I see) to make that leap.

What it tells me is that AMD wanted to be more of a premium brand (higher prices), and Intel's 10th gen was pretty underwhelming. After the initial surge of enthusiasts buying it because it's the latest and greatest, AMD likely felt they could compete with higher margins. Their CEO (and others within the company) have publicly stated they no longer consider themselves to be the "value" brand compared to Intel.

AMD has really knocked it out of the park every year since they first released the Ryzen series, so there's really no need to have a negative product outlook at this point.
 

lobz

Golden Member
Feb 10, 2017
1,345
1,505
106
Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.
If what you're saying is true, then it's exactly in AMD's best interest to hold back leaks of a strong Zen 3 - if such leaks came out, that's when Zen 2 would become unsellable.
All the current prices tell us is that DIY people wanna buy AMD right now.
 

VirtualLarry

Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
48,834
5,327
126
Let's look at other possible factors contributing to prices rising on the 3600 from a very-nearly inventory-clearing price of $154.99 to $199.99.

Is there really a mfg shortage of these chips? Considering that the are to lowest-binned 6C/12T Zen2 CPU.

Is it limited wafer starts for Zen2 chiplets, due to NVidia buying up more wafers for Ampere, and AMD devoting more of their allocated wafer starts on TSMC 7nm to their 4000-series mobile and desktop APUs? (Of which,
OEMs are apparently buying so many desktop 4000-series APUs, that there won't be any available for the DIY market for some time.)
 

cellarnoise

Member
Mar 22, 2017
33
11
51
Virtual, I hope you are wrong!

I see this as pure supply v.s. demand. If I was AMD I would be transitioning manufacturing from the old (3600 cpu was hot stuff), as the company is shifting to production of new (whatever Zen 3). So supply is declining of old product as it is not being produced to focus on the next gen. I would expect that AMD has hard line wafer start orders that are not very flexible. Just can't order a few more as demand at the factory appears to be great.

It is a fact that the 3600 has been a hot product. Anand even came out with a specific article about how hot it was. That is a rarity and for AMD even more so.

Though what do I know as I should have bought into AMD stock besides a few AMD products that I did purchase on their previous up-swings after almost DEATH. I was blown away by the AMD chiplet serious that includes Zen2. Oh how I would be retired by now if I jumped on previous AMD upswings after following these forums :)

I now expect the leaks to be right in line. IPC increase with minimal clock increase as you imply. Largely same production node with a + added? and mostly wider paths to greater single thread and cache access goodness.

Until Intel can come over the top with greater performance in single or multi thread, prices will increase...
 

A///

Senior member
Feb 24, 2017
771
516
106
I think no more than 5% increase in performance over Zen2 at ISO clocks, with similar memory clocks. In both gaming and productivity. Except for maybe one or two outliers, like Zen2 and CS:GO.
If Zen3 only sees a 5% increase in performance it would be a monumental failure for AMD. It would not only be in line with the trash Intel served us for years but also cause them to lose footing against Intel. We haven't heard anything about desktop RDNA2 either, it must suck as well, right? Meanwhile, Intel is more leaky than an incontinent dog with diarrhea, and their products are trash unless all you care about is gaming.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
3,294
2,084
136
Let's look at other possible factors contributing to prices rising on the 3600 from a very-nearly inventory-clearing price of $154.99 to $199.99.

Is there really a mfg shortage of these chips? Considering that the are to lowest-binned 6C/12T Zen2 CPU.

Is it limited wafer starts for Zen2 chiplets, due to NVidia buying up more wafers for Ampere, and AMD devoting more of their allocated wafer starts on TSMC 7nm to their 4000-series mobile and desktop APUs? (Of which,
OEMs are apparently buying so many desktop 4000-series APUs, that there won't be any available for the DIY market for some time.)
What about Sony saying that they've greater raised their initial volumes for PS5 by millions of consoles.
 

A///

Senior member
Feb 24, 2017
771
516
106
My impetus for this thread, was Newegg themselves are charging $199.99. The third-parties on Newegg are around $5 cheaper.
And Amazon was selling them for $190 for a short period, prior to that they were as low as the mid $150s. Prices are rarely consistent when it comes to first party sales channels. I've paid as much as a $30 difference multiple times because a first party product was stuck on a higher price for months. I don't think it's supply. It's a retailer knowing they can get away with higher pricing.

You forget first party retail channels sold the 9900K for $200-300 over MSRP at times. Not sure what else there is to say. Zen to Zen2 were hyped. People were disappointed in various ways with particular performance areas of the processors even though they slayed Intel.

Pricing has been affected by multiple issues this year, so no connections (that I see) to make that leap.

What it tells me is that AMD wanted to be more of a premium brand (higher prices), and Intel's 10th gen was pretty underwhelming. After the initial surge of enthusiasts buying it because it's the latest and greatest, AMD likely felt they could compete with higher margins. Their CEO (and others within the company) have publicly stated they no longer consider themselves to be the "value" brand compared to Intel.

AMD has really knocked it out of the park every year since they first released the Ryzen series, so there's really no need to have a negative product outlook at this point.
Correct. I'm no AMD fan or Intel fan. And while I still doubted and still do doubt AMD's success by a healthy degree, I can't call them a budget brand anymore.
I won't call Intel a budget brand either, but Intel are punching above their weight with their pricing which has no reflection on their value and performance, both of which they severely lack at this time. The only reason I'd buy Intel now is if I were a gamer and needed or wanted that high FPS in some games, or if I worked with software that heavily favors Intel optimizations. Otherwise, I'd spend the same money and go with AMD.
 
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Asterox

Senior member
May 15, 2012
376
422
136
Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.
There is no significant Ryzen 3000 price increase. You cannot judge the global price increase, by prices at retailers in your local area or country.Here is some examples, from Germany or Austria or UK retailers and one from Poland 800zl is 180euro.R5 3600 is best selling Desktop CPU, or by numbers as expected best selling CPU on Mindfactory.




 

ondma

Golden Member
Mar 18, 2018
1,488
412
106
My impetus for this thread, was Newegg themselves are charging $199.99. The third-parties on Newegg are around $5 cheaper.
As usual, expectations for Zen 3 are shall we say......optimistic. However, I would think the price rise on current stock is probably related to supply issues related to the pandemic rather than an indication of good or bad performance for Zen 3. Could also be an indication that Zen 3 is going to come somewhat late (I know, AMD denied it) and/or be in short supply initially.
 

inf64

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2011
3,000
1,523
136
Zen3 is a new uarcrhitecture, 5% at ISO clocks is not going to happen :). AMD is raising prices because they are in the lead plus this pandemic is not helping. The only problem I see with Zen3 is that there is a big chance we will not be seeing mainstream parts launched at first, just 12C and 16C with premium performance and premium price.
 

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,215
1,324
106
Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points,
Have a think about that.

The market sets price points, not retailers. They only respond to market demand.

Market demand for Zen2 is still large precisely because there is so little information available on Zen3.

Why would either AMD or the retailers want to release a plethora of information on Zen3 that would collapse demand for all current inventory of Zen2?

Indeed, if Zen3 was muck, it'd be in the retailers short term interest to leak that to push demand up for Zen2.
 
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Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
541
540
136
I think no more than 5% increase in performance over Zen2 at ISO clocks, with similar memory clocks.
Regarding expectations for "Zen 3", here is one of AMD SVP Forrest Norrod's statements on their strategy and roadmap:

"We always knew that having the regular cadence in the road map was extremely important, and so the strategy was to have Rome be a part that could further accentuate our throughput leadership, and to get rid of as many asterisks as possible in terms of single thread performance, memory latency, and so on. That was always the strategy. Then Milan was designed to further erase any asterisks that remain, so in thinking about it, in the original strategy, Milan was where we expected to be back to IPC (or better) parity across all workloads. That was the thought process to the strategy."


If they hit their targets, it should not disappoint.
 

moinmoin

Golden Member
Jun 1, 2017
1,781
1,789
106
Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.
This observation seems to be a misleading anecdote at best?

I don't know how it's in the overall US market, but in the German market the price for 3600 evolved like this since launch:
1598523479058.png

The big drop off close to the middle happened at the end of January. The current price is pretty near the all time low.

What's actually interesting is that since June the previous gen at times gets ever closer to the current gen pricing likely due to demand outpacing supply, like here for 2600:
1598523759678.png
 

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
482
91
91
The stock is low which is the reason why the price has risen. Amazon says the 3600 won't be available for a month.

There are two reasons I think this is happening:

1. AMD shifted 7nm production to mobile processors in order to meet OEMs orders
2. AMD at the same time, is building supply of Zen 3 which uses the same resources to test, package, supply heatsinks... with an already low stock of Zen 2 from huge demand from the pandemic.

AMD stated that they want to beat the yearly gain of 10-15% speed gains so I doubt we will see anything as low as 5%. I don't see clock speeds increasing much at all. The XT series is probably showing what we can get out of enhanced 7nm. Leaks suggest 10-22% increases which seem reasonable.
 

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