Question Zen2 CPU prices Increasing; Not a good sign for Zen3?

[VirtualLarry]

Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

 

[rbk123]

Not to mention stock opportunities are like trains - there will always be another one coming.

 

[TheELF]

which is completely ridiculous.

It shows that tsmc didn't have any more wafers,at least at that point, otherwise 180.000 is a pretty weird number why not 150 or 200.000?

How is that different and even ridiculous?
You can't expect TSMC to have unlimited amounts of wafers on standby at any point of time.

 

[maddie]

How is that different and even ridiculous?
You can't expect TSMC to have unlimited amounts of wafers on standby at any point of time.

I seem to have some difficulty in following your beliefs.

Which, if any number below, is considered weird for an Intel wafer order with TSMC and why is this?

100K
110K
120K
130K
140K
150K
160K
170K
180K
190K
200K

 

[A///]

Whoops.

 

[Kenmitch]

Weird thread. Goes from Zen 2 pricing to battle for the wafers!

If I was the guy defending Intel's honor I doubt I'd be in a thread discussing how many wafers they bought from another fab.

 

[TheELF]

I seem to have some difficulty in following your beliefs.

Which, if any number below, is considered weird for an Intel wafer order with TSMC and why is this?

100K
110K
120K
130K
140K
150K
160K
170K
180K
190K
200K

Well any number is as weird as any other,my point was that intel would have bought as many as possible.
If this article is true TSMC can make around 130.000 wafers per month right now so there is that,it would push anything not yet produced 1 month + back unless they just had them lying around there which again is the point that I made.

TSMC 7nm process output to top 140,000 wafers monthly

TSMC has already scaled up its 7nm process output to 130,000 wafers monthly ahead of schedule, with the monthly production set to climb further to 140,000 units at the end of this year, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

 

[TheELF]

Weird thread. Goes from Zen 2 pricing to battle for the wafers!

If I was the guy defending Intel's honor I doubt I'd be in a thread discussing how many wafers they bought from another fab.

AMD makes everything they make from wafers they buy from another FAB so what's the problem?!

 

[Kenmitch]

Well any number is as weird as any other,my point was that intel would have bought as many as possible.

Maybe they just rounded off the numbers to make it simple.

How about we just call it 178,496 wafers!

 

[Kenmitch]

AMD makes everything they make from wafers they buy from another FAB so what's the problem?!

Really? If you can't comprehend the difference then I don't really know what to say.

Back on topic....My local Microcenter looks to be wiped out with AMD's lower end offerings. 3400G for $130.00 is it....Of course they got some cheap Intel crap that nobody looks to want.

 

[TheELF]

Really? If you can't comprehend the difference then I don't really know what to say.

Back on topic....My local Microcenter looks to be wiped out with AMD's lower end offerings. 3400G for $130.00 is it....Of course they got some cheap Intel crap that nobody looks to want.

Yeah the difference is that intel makes 10bil more money in their pockets per year and they need even more wafers to make even more money while AMDs products sit on a shelf in your local microcenter for dumping prices and there are still no takers.



Take your troll elsewhere. Preferably to an Intel thread.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director

 

[Kenmitch]

Yeah the difference is that intel makes 10bil more money in their pockets per year and they need even more wafers to make even more money while AMDs products sit on a shelf in your local microcenter for dumping prices and there are still no takers.

You really do need a intervention. There's life after Intel.

 

[Doug S]

Well any number is as weird as any other,my point was that intel would have bought as many as possible.
If this article is true TSMC can make around 130.000 wafers per month right now so there is that,it would push anything not yet produced 1 month + back unless they just had them lying around there which again is the point that I made.

TSMC 7nm process output to top 140,000 wafers monthly

TSMC has already scaled up its 7nm process output to 130,000 wafers monthly ahead of schedule, with the monthly production set to climb further to 140,000 units at the end of this year, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

No it would push anything NOT YET ORDERED back by 1 month+. Everyone who already has orders in to TSMC is fine and their delivery dates are unchanged. If AMD doesn't already have outstanding orders to meet their expected demand, that's their problem. A business isn't going to push back production of existing orders to accommodate a new order.

I can't complain that you placing an order today for a dozen Ferraris in every color is going to push back the delivery of the Ferrari I'm planning to order next month. I wouldn't get a delivery date until I placed the order, and if after placing the order I wish the delivery date was sooner it would be my own fault for waiting not yours for placing your order first.

 

[chrisjames61]

Yeah the difference is that intel makes 10bil more money in their pockets per year and they need even more wafers to make even more money while AMDs products sit on a shelf in your local microcenter for dumping prices and there are still no takers.

Wow, every single bit of news about Intel for the last three years has been bad and it is only going to get worse. Dude, take off your rose colored glasses. Anybody with one iota of awareness or any objectivity knows Intel is in serious trouble on many fronts.

 

[Mopetar]

Remember back a few years when the prices of GPUs suddenly spiked? It was a clear indication that the successors to both the Polaris and Pascal line of GPUs were going to be inferior and barely offer any performance uplift, right?

I suspect it's merely a case of the supply chain being disrupted due to current global conditions, but there may be other factors such as AMD having wound down production of Zen 2 parts to a larger extent than necessary, in which case prices are rising to offset shortages in supply. Demand might also be increasing as more people are working from home and find themselves in need of new hardware.

 

[TheELF]

Wow, every single bit of news about Intel for the last three years has been bad and it is only going to get worse. Dude, take off your rose colored glasses. Anybody with one iota of awareness or any objectivity knows Intel is in serious trouble on many fronts.

yes terrible terrible news for intel for the last three years,let's all press like to pray for intel at this time of utter desperation,how will they ever recover from making twice the net income per year...

 

[Markfw]

yes terrible terrible news for intel for the last three years,let's all press like to pray for intel at this time of utter desperation,how will they ever recover from making twice the net income per year...

Do you have any clue here ? Intel may be doing well financially right now, but with the failures, and the sucess of all the AMD chips (most notably EPYC) and the stock price, it should be evident to anyone with a brain, that their near future is going to have more than a few roadbumps, and that is only short sighted logic you are using. The stock buyout included. The money is going to drain very soon, and the smart people are getting off that train before it crashes. Its not a matter of if it will happen now, its a matter of WHEN, and it won't be long.

Now, they may come back, but until I see the benchmarks of all these new wonderful CPUs they have promised (2021 or 2022), I say they are going to take a fall soon. It took the investors 2 years to figure this out, but now the tech community and the investors are all together, the train is going to crash soon.

 

[maddie]

yes terrible terrible news for intel for the last three years,let's all press like to pray for intel at this time of utter desperation,how will they ever recover from making twice the net income per year...

Exact same amount in 2019 & 2020? Remarkable.

 

[Markfw]

Exact same amount in 2019 & 2020? Remarkable.

Idiots will follow the train until it crashes.

 

[inf64]

I watched Gamers Nexus video on TigerLake "event". The whole event was so cringy I have no words. Intel is so butthurt for getting rekt by AMD the last few years they keep mentioning AMD products like dozen of times while they mention their own product by name only a few times. It's like a divorce that gets left for a better looking younger girl, roughly that level of hate . They even called AMD "imitators"

 

[UsandThem]

Yeah the difference is that intel makes 10bil more money in their pockets per year and they need even more wafers to make even more money while AMDs products sit on a shelf in your local microcenter for dumping prices and there are still no takers.

Amazon must be sending a lot of CPUs to Micro Center to sit on the shelf.

 

[Kenmitch]

Amazon must be sending a lot of CPUs to Micro Center to sit on the shelf.

View attachment 29236

Microcenter's list is worse. AMD has the 1st 6 with 7/10 overall.

We should quit before we give the poor guy nightmares.

 

[Kenmitch]

Exact same amount in 2019 & 2020? Remarkable.

Breaking News!....Due to internal failure Intel throws over a Billion dollars of it's profit to a competing fab.....Film at 11

 

[DrMrLordX]

Well any number is as weird as any other,my point was that intel would have bought as many as possible.

No they wouldn't. Intel isn't that desperate. They're apparently pushing 10nm SuperFETs pretty hard now, so assuming yields are not complete trash (which is not a given), those 6nm TSMC wafers are going for a specific number of DG2 and Ponte Vecchio chips (the ones not slated for Intel 7nm/TSMC 5nm). And possibly Sapphire Rapids but we don't know yet.

There's absolutely no reason to believe that TSMC "ran out" of wafers/fab capacity due to Intel buying something. AMD didn't order enough wafers for Renoir, but that snafu was due to negotiations that were made last year, well before Intel put in the call to grab wafers from TSMC. AMD is likely taking wafers for Cezanne now (or soon), and the negotiations for that likely took place before Intel's order as well. Intel had to pick over whatever was left on the table.

 

[TheELF]

The money is going to drain very soon, and the smart people are getting off that train before it crashes. Its not a matter of if it will happen now, its a matter of WHEN, and it won't be long.

Sure I'm open to that scenario anything could happen, please go ahead and come up with one realistic scenario of how the money could be going to drain very soon,what's your interpretation of soon, is it Soon™ ? How much drain are you talking about, how could it happen at all.

How much money would it take for AMD to buy up everything TSMC can produce, does AMD has that much money, how fast could AMD get that amount of money together if they don't, would that be enough to produce the same volume of products as intel,how long would it take/how many months/years would AMD have to keep this up until they would start to sell as much product as intel?Would that cause intel prices to drop?

AMD could take 50% of current market share and intel would be back at making the same amount of money as before ZEN,look at 2010 where intel made 40bil rev and 10 bil net income.
So even if this, the extremest of possibilities, comes true intel would still be doing very well for themselves.

 

[TheELF]

those 6nm TSMC wafers are going for a specific number of DG2 and Ponte Vecchio chips (the ones not slated for Intel 7nm/TSMC 5nm). And possibly Sapphire Rapids but we don't know yet.

Yeah but intel isn't strapped for money right now, why would they make a specific number and not want to make as many as possible,it's not like they can't absorb the failure if it goes wrong.