Question Zen2 CPU prices Increasing; Not a good sign for Zen3?

[VirtualLarry]

Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Just hope this does not turn OEMs off from AMD chips due to shortage.

The OEMs are smarter than that. They've likely already had talks with AMD in private about chip supplies.

 

[TheELF]

The OEMs are smarter than that. They've likely already had talks with AMD in private about chip supplies.

Yeah and AMD likely already called their FABs to tell them to increase production...oh wait....nevermind.
Unless AMD has a stock of not quite up to snuff CPUs like intel had with them 10850k there is not like AMD can do anything other than pissing one OEM off to please another.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Yeah and AMD likely already called their FABs to tell them to increase production...oh wait....nevermind.

Actually they have? Wafer capacity has never been a problem for them. They just haven't ordered enough.

 

[TheELF]

Actually they have? Wafer capacity has never been a problem for them. They just haven't ordered enough.

Didn't intel just got the last 180.000 wafers a month or so ago?
With TSMC saying they would increase production,which makes sense since intel already stated it to be a one off deal.

 

[A///]

Didn't intel just got the last 180.000 wafers a month or so ago?
With TSMC saying they would increase production,which makes sense since intel already stated it to be a one off deal.

Of 6nm. Not the myriad of 7nm nodes TSMC runs. When Hauwei got shafted, Apple and AMD bought chunks of wafer space they had previously reserved, and then came the other fabless companies. AMD was up front about not ordering enough because they didn't think the take rate would be as high as it was, namely on their higher end SKUs like the 3900X and then the 3950X. Personally, I think it was poor judgement to assume they wouldn't sell as much as 1st and 2nd gen Ryzen, or that the take rate on a $500 or even a $750 processor would be high. While not a very good source, German etailer Mindfactory publishes their sales reports often. At the time and probably still move a lot of the higher end Ryzens. AMD could package a million processors a week and there would still be a shortage due to demand for the product itself and its qualities, but also because there's a global pandemic raging and will keep raging until possibly mid 2021. I'm only just beginning to see name brand hardware trickle back onto online storefronts or in actual stores. The PSU situation has gotten better but expect some scarcity until the new year.

It's nuts man.

 

[Doug S]

Of 6nm. Not the myriad of 7nm nodes TSMC runs.

TSMC's N6 is one of the "myriad of 7nm nodes TSMC runs". It uses the same design rules as N7, and appears to be basically a small tweak of their EUV based N7+ process.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Didn't intel just got the last 180.000 wafers a month or so ago?

Intel ordered 6nm wafers. Granted, those may come off the same equipment as N7 and N7P, but except for legacy production (or possibly I/O dice), AMD is mostly done with N7 anyway, as are many of TSMC's customers who demand cutting-edge nodes. And there was no indication that those 180k wafers were "the last" of anything. It may be the last time Intel buys N7/N7P/N6 from TSMC.

 

[TheELF]

And there was no indication that those 180k wafers were "the last" of anything.

It shows that tsmc didn't have any more wafers,at least at that point, otherwise 180.000 is a pretty weird number why not 150 or 200.000?

 

[rbk123]

It's tied to a cost # in $$ for financial planning purposes. They modeled $X which resulted in Y processors.

 

[DrMrLordX]

It shows that tsmc didn't have any more wafers,at least at that point, otherwise 180.000 is a pretty weird number why not 150 or 200.000?

. . . whaaaat?

 

[TheELF]

. . . whaaaat?

look at the financials, intel is selling everything they have,in the last two years they made 10 bil more sales each year and of that new revenue all of it was net income.
Again, they made 10bil more sales and they put 10 bil more into their pockets.

If they are buying wafers to sell more product why would they not buy as many as possible to make as much money as possible?

 

[Markfw]

look at the financials, intel is selling everything they have,in the last two years they made 10 bil more sales each year and of that new revenue all of it was net income.
Again, they made 10bil more sales and they put 10 bil more into their pockets.

If they are buying wafers to sell more product why would they not buy as many as possible to make as much money as possible?

That will likely change... Look at the stock prices, the sales and the news. AMD is much smaller and can not ramp up as quickly as Intel. AMD has gone from 40 to 90 in 6 months. In the same time, Intel has gone from 60 to 52 and the downward trend has been that way for a year.

If you say follow the money, I am, and Intel is not winning that war. Todays cash can change overnight, if there is no future...

 

[maddie]

It shows that tsmc didn't have any more wafers,at least at that point, otherwise 180.000 is a pretty weird number why not 150 or 200.000?

According to your reasoning, any number is a weird number. You made my day so far, hilarious thinking here.

 

[A///]

AMD has gone from 40 to 90 in 6 months

Don't remind me! I nearly had a coronary the other day when I looked AMD up. I wasted so much time deciding whether to buy when they were under a few bucks a pop. Blew it around Zen to Zen+. Even with Zen 2 I figured it'd recoil back to a low price. Same with TR this February. And when Intel announced their Q2 woes, I reluctantly didn't bother purchasing when AMD shot up a bit. I figured in a month they'd be back to the mid 30s. In other words, I'm an idiot. I should probably buy now knowing how history has treated me. I probably won't. Ask me in six months when I'm drowning myself in beer because AMD may be at $200 a share, unlikely, but who knows.

 

[DrMrLordX]

look at the financials

Nothing you're saying makes any sense. There's nothing about "the financials" or Intel buying a particular allocation of 6nm wafers that tells me that TSMC will somehow run out of 300mm wafers they can feed into their still-very-much-operational fab equipment that can crank out N7, N7P, or N6 per consumer request.

 

[TheELF]

That will likely change... Look at the stock prices, the sales and the news. AMD is much smaller and can not ramp up as quickly as Intel. AMD has gone from 40 to 90 in 6 months. In the same time, Intel has gone from 60 to 52 and the downward trend has been that way for a year.

If you say follow the money, I am, and Intel is not winning that war. Todays cash can change overnight, if there is no future...

We have a company that barely makes any money but has stocks that shoot up...

Stock market bubble - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Behavioral finance theory attributes stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behavior.

Now the cash injection of this price hike might be just what AMD needs and it might be beneficial in the long run but on the other hand AMD does not have enough cash to back the stock up so if something goes wrong it will go very wrong.

(Intels stock before ZEN was at about $35)

According to your reasoning, any number is a weird number. You made my day so far, hilarious thinking here.

If you know that you can sell 100 but buy raw materials for only 80 is that weird or not?
intel can sell as much as they want right now so why would they not want to sell as much as possible?

Nothing you're saying makes any sense. There's nothing about "the financials" or Intel buying a particular allocation of 6nm wafers that tells me that TSMC will somehow run out of 300mm wafers they can feed into their still-very-much-operational fab equipment that can crank out N7, N7P, or N6 per consumer request.

TSMC makes chips for a lot of companies,it's not a matter of running out it's a matter of right now how many could they provide,if AMD or intel or nvidia or apple or whoever has to wait 6 months or something for the next time they have wafers to give out then that's not really relevant for right now,if TSMC is booked out for months ahead then AMD can't just call them up for more wafers, they will have to wait for the next time window.

 

[uzzi38]

We have a company that barely makes any money but has stocks that shoot up...

Stock market bubble - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Now the cash injection of this price hike might be just what AMD needs and it might be beneficial in the long run but on the other hand AMD does not have enough cash to back the stock up so if something goes wrong it will go very wrong.

If you know that you can sell 100 but buy raw materials for only 80 is that weird or not?
intel can sell as much as they want right now so why would they not want to sell as much as possible?

TSMC makes chips for a lot of companies,it's not a matter of running out it's a matter of right now how many could they provide,if AMD or intel or nvidia or apple or whoever has to wait 6 months or something for the next time they have wafers to give out then that's not really relevant for right now,if TSMC is booked out for months ahead then AMD can't just call them up for more wafers, they will have to wait for the next time window.

AMD is a higher tier customer than Intel by a very large margin when it comes to the newer fab nodes. They're a higher tier customer than people realise. You'll see that next year, plenty of extremely interesting products scheduled to silence any worries about AMD's position at TSMC.

AMD's booked plenty of wafers, Zen 2 production is just slowing in the light of Zen 3 which is around the corner. Both being 7nm nodes, most of the fab machines are shared. That's the reason why prices are rising somewhat again.

Talk about making a mountain out of a mole hill.

 

[DrMrLordX]

if TSMC is booked out for months ahead then AMD can't just call them up for more wafers, they will have to wait for the next time window.

That's different from what you said, and as @uzzi38 pointed out, TSMC isn't going to orphan AMD just because Intel bought "all the wafers". TSMC's output is somewhere in the order of 2.4m wafers or higher. So far as I can tell, Cezanne and Vermeer should be both N7+ anyway, so theoretically selling Intel 180k 6nm wafers should have no bearing on availability of N7+.

 

[uzzi38]

That's different from what you said, and as @uzzi38 pointed out, TSMC isn't going to orphan AMD just because Intel bought "all the wafers". TSMC's output is somewhere in the order of 2.4m wafers or higher. So far as I can tell, Cezanne and Vermeer should be both N7+ anyway, so theoretically selling Intel 180k 6nm wafers should have no bearing on availability of N7+.

Well like I said all 7nm based nodes primarily use the same machines. N7+ and 6nm also use the EUV machines for a part of the process, but for the most part they should use the same as N7 etc.

 

[TheELF]

if TSMC is booked out for months ahead then AMD can't just call them up for more wafers, they will have to wait for the next time window.

That's different from what you said

It's exactly what I said,AMD can't just call up TSMC and ask them for X amount of wafers to be delivered whenever AMD wants them.

Yeah and AMD likely already called their FABs to tell them to increase production...oh wait....nevermind.

 

[DrMrLordX]

N7+ and 6nm also use the EUV machines for a part of the process, but for the most part they should use the same as N7 etc.

It's not clear if N6 actually uses the same EUV machines/techniques as N7+:

TSMC Reveals 6 nm Process Technology: 7 nm with Higher Transistor Density

www.anandtech.com

Furthermore, according to TSMC N6 'leverages new capabilities in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL)' gained from N7+, but does not disclose how exactly it uses EUV for the particular technology. Meanwhile, N6 uses the same design rules as N7 and enables developers of chips to re-use the same design ecosystem (e.g., tools, etc.), which will enable them to lower development costs. Essentially, N6 allows to shrink die sizes of designs developed using N7 design rules by around 15% while using the familiar IP for additional cost savings.

It's kind of vague.

It's exactly what I said

No, you said

It shows that tsmc didn't have any more wafers,at least at that point, otherwise 180.000 is a pretty weird number why not 150 or 200.000?

which is completely ridiculous.

 

[sxr7171]

Don't remind me! I nearly had a coronary the other day when I looked AMD up. I wasted so much time deciding whether to buy when they were under a few bucks a pop. Blew it around Zen to Zen+. Even with Zen 2 I figured it'd recoil back to a low price. Same with TR this February. And when Intel announced their Q2 woes, I reluctantly didn't bother purchasing when AMD shot up a bit. I figured in a month they'd be back to the mid 30s. In other words, I'm an idiot. I should probably buy now knowing how history has treated me. I probably won't. Ask me in six months when I'm drowning myself in beer because AMD may be at $200 a share, unlikely, but who knows.

As usual with unlucky people like us you’ll watch everyone get rich and then suddenly you’ll get upset and buy at the peak and lose everything. Right now is not the time to go long on anything.

 

[blckgrffn]

Don't remind me! I nearly had a coronary the other day when I looked AMD up. I wasted so much time deciding whether to buy when they were under a few bucks a pop. Blew it around Zen to Zen+. Even with Zen 2 I figured it'd recoil back to a low price. Same with TR this February. And when Intel announced their Q2 woes, I reluctantly didn't bother purchasing when AMD shot up a bit. I figured in a month they'd be back to the mid 30s. In other words, I'm an idiot. I should probably buy now knowing how history has treated me. I probably won't. Ask me in six months when I'm drowning myself in beer because AMD may be at $200 a share, unlikely, but who knows.

We'll see, but when there is talk of inflation, I look at Wall Street. I sold my TSLA @ $300 when they had cars hitting medians and others starting on fire. Woops. Now it's worth funny money, and at least some of that has to be from the seemingly crazy pants monetary policy.

Keeping money in near cash reserves during a pandemic and big recession is probably a very pragmatic move - but it could be ruined if the value of the dollar tanks and you need stocks as an inflationary firewall.

I am bigger idiot for not buying AMD at all. I would really like to claim a win like that right now for my own financial well being.

 

[uzzi38]

It's not clear if N6 actually uses the same EUV machines/techniques as N7+:

TSMC Reveals 6 nm Process Technology: 7 nm with Higher Transistor Density

www.anandtech.com

It's kind of vague.

Same design rules. It's still fundamentally 7nm, "just" using a few layers of EUV to allow for additional density over the regular N7 SKUs.

On the topic of shortages, I'm going to state again that Zen 3 won't be poorly affected. However, that may not hold true for RDNA2. Unlike Zen 3, RDNA2 is a trickier sell for consumers given AMD's current reputation, so it may be put on the back burner. Posting a few things together over on the RDNA2 thread now, one relates more closely to this topic.

 

[A///]

As usual with unlucky people like us you’ll watch everyone get rich and then suddenly you’ll get upset and buy at the peak and lose everything. Right now is not the time to go long on anything.

I am bigger idiot for not buying AMD at all. I would really like to claim a win like that right now for my own financial well being.

I've made peace with missing my chances with AMD and other companies. The moment you accept that what's done is done and that you're only feeling this way because of what you've seen transpire and not something you knew ahead of time, you tend to feel better!