Question Zen2 CPU prices Increasing; Not a good sign for Zen3?

[VirtualLarry]

Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

 

[turtile]

The stock is low which is the reason why the price has risen. Amazon says the 3600 won't be available for a month.

There are two reasons I think this is happening:

1. AMD shifted 7nm production to mobile processors in order to meet OEMs orders
2. AMD at the same time, is building supply of Zen 3 which uses the same resources to test, package, supply heatsinks... with an already low stock of Zen 2 from huge demand from the pandemic.

AMD stated that they want to beat the yearly gain of 10-15% speed gains so I doubt we will see anything as low as 5%. I don't see clock speeds increasing much at all. The XT series is probably showing what we can get out of enhanced 7nm. Leaks suggest 10-22% increases which seem reasonable.

 

[dacostafilipe]

I don't know about others, but I've build 8 computers for family/friends since the crisis, all of them Ryzen (1x 3600, 3x 3700 and 4x 3800). +7 more compared to last year.

Did not see an extreme cpu price difference between the builds (+-20€) that would reflect a price increase.

 

[A///]

Yet the 3600X that was released in 2019 is in stock and available for purchase @ $209. 3700X and 3800X are plentiful, too, and not priced sky high.

 

[Vattila]

Latest leak on Milan/"Zen 3" performance:

"The slides also list some performance values: These speak of an IPC performance increase of +15% for integer workloads. For EPYC processors with up to 32 cores, AMD aims to achieve a performance increase of +20% compared to Rome's Zen 2 core processors – single-treaded performance is also expected to increase by +20%. For the larger EPYC processors with up to 64 cores, AMD expects a performance increase of approximately 10 to 15%. Apparently, AMD can achieve a higher clock speed for processors with fewer cores, so that the performance increase with a few cores has a correspondingly higher effect."

EPYC: Milan mit 10 bis 20 % Leistungsplus, L3-Cache über acht Kerne und Ausblick auf Genoa - Hardwareluxx

Milan mit 10 bis 20 % Leistungsplus, L3-Cache über acht Kerne und Ausblick auf Genoa.

www.hardwareluxx.de

 

[maddie]

Did somebody forget to take his meds?

Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

Yep, that OP is a classic. Reaching such a conclusion from that data point is mindblowing.

 

[Shivansps]

Good thing i did not make this thread.

My opinion is that Zen3 has nothing to do with the 3600 price increase, the problem is that the 3600 is in high demand, far higher than Zen and Zen+ ever had.

But prices are going up, thats for sure.

 

[coercitiv]

Making performance predictions based on a supply constrained product, 2020 does not disappoint even at 65%.

 

[amd6502]

Before Zen+ came out, we had good discounts on Zen CPUs. Likewise on Zen+ CPUs when Zen2 was coming out.

Zen3 is supposed to come out before the end of the year, and:
1) we have no leaks, and
2) Zen2 CPU prices (3600) have risen from $154.99 to MSRP ($199.99) in a matter of weeks.

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

All that seems to have happened is that the top price/perf part (namely the 3600) has cleared out after it was discounted to around 150-160 for some months. So the natural reaction for retailer who had a few straggling parts left in the inventory was a steep price hike.

Other parts like the 3100, 3000 APUs, 3600x and 3700's, and higher seem unaffected.

I think the price will come down to normal levels (170-160) when they restock. However, my guess is that the vast majority of Matisse chiplet production has been replaced with Vermeer/Zen3 chiplet production. To me this inventory clearance is a sign that they are producing their launch stockpile of Vermeer to hit stores in October or even slightly earlier.

For anyone who can't wait I'd say the 2600's or 2700 are a good substitute.

 

[blckgrffn]

Checked Microcenter stocks and they appear robust on the 3600 @ $170 w/$20 combo discount (so ~$150 with mobo).

That seems pretty reasonable?

My guess at some point we'll see a run of the 3600 @ $99 there in the next three months. I need to decide if I can handle not buying that. Yikes. I was so close at hitting the 2600 at $99 last time - back when I could stand in the store and the guy came over to the shelf and changed the price as I was standing there.

 

[Nereus77]

Bit of a stretch to say a price hike on a CPU means it's successor is going to be crappy....

 

[thigobr]

If they run a 3600 for $99 at some point I am getting one to play with it on my B450 specially because those newer batches seem to overclock better...

 

[A///]

If they run a 3600 for $99 at some point I am getting one to play with it on my B450 specially because those newer batches seem to overclock better...

I can see it becoming the premier last gen budget option, completely replacing the 2700X and the 1600AF.

 

[VirtualLarry]

My guess at some point we'll see a run of the 3600 @ $99 there in the next three months.

I don't think that I could contain myself. Rent, who needs to pay rent...

 

[StefanR5R]

However, my guess is that the vast majority of Matisse chiplet production has been replaced with Vermeer/Zen3 chiplet production.

Is there a Matisse chiplet production?
Isn't it rather a Rome chiplet production, from which occasional bits are put aside towards Matisse?
(Ditto for Milan and Vermeer.)

 

[amd6502]

Is there a Matisse chiplet production?
Isn't it rather a Rome chiplet production, from which occasional bits are put aside towards Matisse?
(Ditto for Milan and Vermeer.)

I thought generally it wasn't, but I think at this point (if there's any Zen2 chiplet production at all) the main reason for any continued production would indeed be mainly for Rome. But perhaps the my sense of scale for server chiplets relative to desktop chiplets is completely off.

As for first dibs on availability, yes indeed it would always go to the server business first.

 

[Markfw]

I thought generally it wasn't, but I think at this point (if there's any Zen2 chiplet production at all) the main reason for any continued production would indeed be mainly for Rome. But perhaps the my sense of scale for server chiplets relative to desktop chiplets is completely off.

As for first dibs on availability, yes indeed it would always go to the server business first.

Not sure about that. I would think that since the chiplets are used everywhere, they make them, then they get binned for servers (low power), high frequency (desktop/HEDT) then whats left for things like the 3600. Thats the genius of this design, the one chiplet serves all the purposes.

 

[A///]

Chiplets are binned. The IO die is different on Epyc than Ryzen.

 

[Markfw]

Chiplets are binned. The IO die is different on Epyc than Ryzen.

Well, I know that.... I was only commenting on the chiplets. The IO die should be plentiful.....For both.

 

[A///]

Well, I know that.... I was only commenting on the chiplets. The IO die should be plentiful.....For both.

I know you know that. I suspect if anything given how easy it is to find the X variant online, that the 3600 is being directed to OEMs more, or AMD is building surplus. I estimate that the amount of models after it will last 4-7 months once production ends and the 3600 will keep being manufactured for a while. The 1600AF is a 2700 in disguise or so I've been lead to believe based on various online reports. There's a decent but not significant bump in performance going from a 1600AF to the 3600, as well as providing more "future proofness" to end customers. Though I could be wrong and most stock is being shifted to OEMs due to increased demand of AMD over Intel given how things have transpired.

I've got a devil on my shoulders telling me to pull the trigger and buy into the platform but its other half is telling me patience is a virtue...

 

[thesmokingman]

What, you mean sale prices don't stick 24/7/365 days a year?

I've seen a few threads like these crop up recently, ppl just wanting to stir the pot. 3600 is back to 179 at MC btw.

 

[Nereus77]

What, you mean sale prices don't stick 24/7/365 days a year?

I've seen a few threads like these crop up recently, ppl just wanting to stir the pot. 3600 is back to 179 at MC btw.

Basically people are seeing the price increase and reading into it as stuff that isn't there. Meanwhile its just supply and demand...

 

[misuspita]

Yeah, in my country, prices spiked for 3 4 days and now are back at more and more online stores, around 180-185€ for 3600. That's with taxes included.

 

[AtenRa]

What this tells me, is that Zen3 sucks, and that retails know it.

Edit: Let me explain. If Zen3 were better than sliced bread, then Zen2 would be (relatively) unsellable, at least at the same price-points, and thus, Zen2 CPUs should be discounted commensurate with the disadvantage relative to zen3 CPUs, before release, to clear stock.

The fact that Zen3 is getting ever-closer to release, and Zen2 prices are going UP, points me to a VERY disasppointing Zen3 release.

Retailers dont know squat about ZEN 3 performance today, the prices are governed by supply and demand.

 

[jihe]

Well for one I'm glad that Newegg knows more about AMD's next gen performance than AMD.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I don't see clock speeds increasing much at all. The XT series is probably showing what we can get out of enhanced 7nm.

The XT launch is from the exact same wafers as Matisse in 2019. It tells us nothing about Zen3/Vermeer on N7+.