Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[poke01]

Can we stop with the “Strix halo can save handhelds”, no it won’t PC handhelds sold less than 5 million. With cheap SoCs in them. Halo isn’t moving a needle

 

[poke01]

STX Halo making it all the way to launch is still very exceptional.

The suits only passed it cause Apple made big APUs popular on laptop.

 

[poke01]

The only graphics that sells itself in mobile is the green sticker.
SoCs sell largely on CPU perf and efficiency.
ML stuffs are membw bound for the most part, having the best iGPU does not beat the green sticker with higher membw.
Saving the shiny new graphics IP for when the fast new memory is ready is the right play, it allows software resources to be allocated better in the interim.
The products we want are either expensive or don't exist since the products we dream about won't actually move many units.
Medusa Halo for a big gfx bump without much faster memory needed more MALL, which basically needed SoIC, which AMD cannot be arsed designing for unless it is multi reticle Instinct or <100mm^2 Zen CCDs.
The AI bubble has killed client GPU, it will not be an interesting market until the bubble bursts and thousands of tired engineers can actually enjoy life again.
AMD will not build a halo again as the next halo will be SoIC laden, see above.
NV will continue to build near retscale dies on older processes with the same old proprietary software additions to game a handful of tech demos with bigger bars than before.
Intel is currently doing it's best USS Indianapolis impression.

There is no fun to be found in graphics for the foreseeable future, just cost cutting covered by increasingly more ML hacks.
CPUs meanwhile are quite fun.

This reads like AMD fan fiction.

 

[poke01]

CPUs meanwhile are quite fun.

CPUs are always fun.

 

[DavidC1]

Called it 2 months ago:

Yup.

I called it too.

Halo iGPUs lose one of the attractive features that make people wish for a halo iGPU, which is price. Manufacturers aren't bothering to put a low volume large die SoC just so they can price it lower than a dGPU. They are there to upsell and make money.

Back when I said that people basically disgarded it. Yes, Strix Halo is a nice part. But then it has to come back to the real world.

 

[RnR_au]

Talking about Strix Halo and AI misses the point that Apple is beating everyone in this home/business workload. 512GB with much faster membw. Folk are buying these Apple beasts to run the latest Chinese AI wunderkind's.

I was bullish when the rumours first came out about Strix Halo, but in the end its just a nice tech demo. Useful for some Windows workstation workloads but thats about it.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Can we stop with the “Strix halo can save handhelds”

No. Because it's true.

no it won’t PC handhelds sold less than 5 million.

Wrong. 5 months ago it amounted to 6 million.
Now it's more. It's an expanding market.

Steam Deck & handheld PC sales estimated at 6M

According to new research and Valve's statements, the Steam Deck is vastly outselling its competition, but it's still a fraction of the gaming market.

www.pcworld.com

With cheap SoCs in them.

There's nothing cheap about Phoenix, much less Strix Point.
Doesn't make a lot of people any less willing to pay up to $2000 for a high performance gaming handheld.

Halo isn’t moving a needle

Well I guess your worst nightmare, which is people being able to happily buy something you don't like, is happening anyway. So I guess we'll see.

https://videocardz.com/newz/gpds-gaming-handheld-with-ryzen-ai-max-395-strix-halo-spotted-on-geekbench

 

[poke01]

Well I guess your worst nightmare, which is people being able to happily buy something you don't like, is happening anyway. So I guess we'll see.

Oh I don’t want you or others to NOT buy it.
I’m simply saying it won’t be a big seller, the big market for $2000 handhelds is non-existent, why? Cause that’s laptop territory

 

[poke01]

Wrong. 5 months ago it amounted to 6 million.
Now it's more. It's an expanding market.

And the switch 2 sold 5+ million in a month. PC handhelds are a niche within a niche.

 

[poke01]

Doesn't make a lot of people any less willing to pay up to $2000 for a high performance gaming handheld.

Also why up $2000, why not $3000 or $4000.

Why is the limit up to $2K or is that YOUR limit? So you are already setting your own presumptions on much the market can tolerate.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Oh I don’t want you or others to NOT buy it.

Pinky promise?

I’m simply saying it won’t be a big seller, the big market for $2000 handhelds is non-existent, why? Cause that’s laptop territory

Gaming Handheld >>> Gaming Laptop.


Have you seen sales numbers for each gaming laptop SKU?

Also why up $2000, why not $3000 or $4000.

Why is the limit up to $2K or is that YOUR limit?

Nah, I could do above $2K.
$2K is simply the most expensive gaming handheld PC you can buy right now, though they're ~$1200 base handhelds with big upgrades like 64GB LPDDR5 and 4TB M2 SSDs.

And the switch 2 sold 5+ million in a month. PC handhelds are a niche within a niche.

This argument is nonsense for the PC market.
Are you also going to tell Razer to stop making each of their >$2000 Razer Blade laptops because they can't hope to sell 5 million units like Nintendo does with the Switch?

Console economics and sales expectations are a completely different beast.
Console makers foot the whole bill for pretty much all R&D needed for custom and semicustom parts, plus all the assembly lines, their own distribution channels, etc. And then they usually subsidize the hardware as well. The whole business model requires selling tens of millions of consoles, and then hundreds of millions of games for those consoles, in order to recoup the investment and start making money.

Asus, Razer, MSI, etc. don't have to worry about any of that. They just need to sell devices with a 30% markup or more.

So you are already setting your own presumptions on much the market can tolerate.

I'm setting them based on real products being sold right now.

 

[poke01]

Pinky promise?


Gaming Handheld >>> Gaming Laptop.


Have you seen sales numbers for each gaming laptop SKU?




Nah, I could do above $2K.
$2K is simply the most expensive gaming handheld PC you can buy right now, though they're ~$1200 base handhelds with big upgrades like 64GB LPDDR5 and 4TB M2 SSDs.




This argument is nonsense for the PC market.
Are you also going to tell Razer to stop making each of their >$2000 Razer Blade laptops because they can't hope to sell 5 million units like Nintendo does with the Switch?

Console economics and sales expectations are a completely different beast.
Console makers foot the whole bill for pretty much all R&D needed for custom and semicustom parts, plus all the assembly lines, their own distribution channels, etc. And then they usually subsidize the hardware as well. The whole business model requires selling tens of millions of consoles, and then hundreds of millions of games for those consoles, in order to recoup the investment and start making money.

Asus, Razer, MSI, etc. don't have to worry about any of that. They just need to sell devices with a 30% markup or more.



I'm setting them based on real products being sold right now.

Good points. I hope isn’t come as too much of a condescending person. Well, I’ll join your dream of a Strix halo but in more than 1 laptop.

 

[poke01]

Talking about Strix Halo and AI misses the point that Apple is beating everyone in this home/business workload. 512GB with much faster membw. Folk are buying these Apple beasts to run the latest Chinese AI wunderkind's.

I was bullish when the rumours first came out about Strix Halo, but in the end its just a nice tech demo. Useful for some Windows workstation workloads but thats about it.

Apple is a big player the massive iGPU for pros. They sell a lot of M4 Pros especially at $1800 when it’s on sale.

And then we have HP selling Halo at stupid high prices.

 

[branch_suggestion]

This reads like AMD fan fiction.

Nah, the real fanfic stuff is MI500+ speculation.

 

[Vikv1918]

Can we stop with the “Strix halo can save handhelds”, no it won’t PC handhelds sold less than 5 million. With cheap SoCs in them. Halo isn’t moving a needle

They sold less than they would have because they are not true gaming PC/laptop replacements. They play most AAA games at 720p low 40fps. But they play older games and less demanding games and emulation well. S they are right now a luxury accessory, something to use alongside your more powerful gaming device. A Halo handheld at $1000 would be a true gaming device replacement. Halo-type handhelds have the potential to disrupt the entire gaming market from desktop PCs to dGPU laptops to consoles.

 

[marees]

View attachment 127297

MLID leaked about Magnus: could be SoC for upcoming PS6. PS5 Pro's SoC is having 279 mm2 @ N4P, Magnus comes with total 408 mm2 @ 3nm. Pretty big die but kind of expected for next generation console.

With the Xbox(?) APU leak having 384-bit bus and what looks like 80 CU (very similar layout to Navi21), I don't see RX 10K topping out at 64 CU.

Seems to be a semi-custom zen 6 apu on 3nm

 

[HurleyBird]

VINDICATION

How sure are you that it's a 4-core CCX, rather than you know there are 4 LP cores, which you then infer a 4-core CCX from?

Because the intersection of your 4-core 16MB CCX leak, and the MLID Medusa Point die diagram leak just makes everything really confusing. For reference:

View attachment 117367
(supposedly ~200mm2 for the IOD)

That structure on the IOD that looks strikingly like an 8-core CCX, which is in basically where you would expect a CCX to be if you horizontally mirrored Strix? Yeah.... MLID speculates those are actually 8 WGPs which feels... off. Maybe he knows something because I don't think there's anyway to see that without thinking "CCX."

And the L3 on this CCX-looking structure? Pretty much the exact size you would expect for 16MB, which you've corroborated.

But assuming this is a CCX there are appear to be 8 cores, not the 4 that you claim.

But the top row of "cores" is measurably smaller than the bottom row.

So perhaps it's 4+4, with 4 LP cores and 4 full fat (or regular dense) cores?

16MB of L3 sounds like a lot for a 4-core "LP island," although the diagram suggests the L3 might be shared with the GPU... but then the diagram does not suggest a 4-core CCX.

Given MLID's hit rate on these high level diagram leaks (MI300, etc), there's a very high chance the image has some basis in reality, even if his analysis seems strange.

So we basically have a situation here where MLID posts a diagram with a structure that screams 8-core 16MB CCX IOD, but then he speculates about that being the GPU... you corroborate 16MB L3 but claim the CCX is just 4-core. The sum of all this is... pretty awkward.

I don't know why whoever made this diagram did 2 different sizes for the WGPs but that is definitely not an additional 8 Zen6 on the IOD.

MLID now reporting what I inferred 5 months ago.

 

[marees]

View attachment 127241

No, do not do this to me... pls tell me that MDS Halo is not referring to Medusa Halo

So a respin with UDNA / RDNA 5 🤔🤔🤔

 

[branch_suggestion]

So a respin with UDNA / RDNA 5 🤔🤔🤔

Either MDS Halo is completely canned, redefined with nerfed graphics or pushed back a year.

 

[Io Magnesso]

Apple is a big player the massive iGPU for pros. They sell a lot of M4 Pros especially at $1800 when it’s on sale.

And then we have HP selling Halo at stupid high prices.

Well, STX HALO is still rare.
If the number will increase (production number), the price will probably go down...

 

[Io Magnesso]

Talking about Strix Halo and AI misses the point that Apple is beating everyone in this home/business workload. 512GB with much faster membw. Folk are buying these Apple beasts to run the latest Chinese AI wunderkind's.

I was bullish when the rumours first came out about Strix Halo, but in the end its just a nice tech demo. Useful for some Windows workstation workloads but thats about it.

I guess it's just that the memory performance and capacity is high.
That's a good thing
But even with that Apple, the GPGPU software ecosystem It's not that it's in order

Well, both are niche products In AI workload

 

[marees]

I guess it's just that the memory performance and capacity is high.
That's a good thing
But even with that Apple, the GPGPU software ecosystem It's not that it's in order

Well, both are niche products In AI workload

Mlid leak says magnus apu is for consoles

But it is 384ghz bus & MS could open source it

 

[DrMrLordX]

The late changes to Strix Point by removing the MALL cache and inserting the NPU/Die Waste Unit.

Seems like the people buying Strix Halo are doing so to run AI models on it, so perhaps it wasn't wasted after all. People aren't buying it for gaming rigs since they can get 5070Ti mobile lappies for less money and a 9955/9955HX, why bother with Strix Halo for games?

Can we stop with the “Strix halo can save handhelds”

Apparently not, despite multiple people explaining why Strix Halo in particular isn't going to serve the handheld market.

 

[Win2012R2]

But it is 384ghz bus & MS could open source it

 

[marees]

Apologies for the confusion. I meant to say 384 bit bus


In a new video shared on YouTube, Moore's Law is Dead revealed the existance of an AMD Zen 6 APU called Magnus, featuring a massive 264mm squared graphics die with a 384-bit memory bus, which a wider bus than any current generation system, wider than the 320-bit bus of the Xbox Series X, connected with a Bridge Die to a 144mm squared SoC die.

PlayStation 6, Next Xbox AMD Zen 6 "Magnus" APU May Have Leaked; 11 CPU Cores, 384-bit Memory Bus Revealed

The potantial APU for the PlayStation 6 or the next-generation Xbox may have leaked online, with specs suggesting it will surpass current PC GPUs performance.

wccftech.com