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Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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adroc_thurston said:
Kind of? It's inherently a slow process that's also kinda expensive.
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It's cheap enough to be in 9800X3D, what's the premium there: 100 bucks max?

If 9800X3D were impossible to buy then one could argue it was just a stunt to get top tier CPU that won't be available in volume, but it clearly is available now.

It's clearly the future - place bigger long term orders and they'll find ways to speed it up, money need to flow that way.
 
Win2012R2 said:
No, it does NOT have to launch later - they can first accumulate non-3D chips to actually have stock for launch, and some 3D ones that will be super popular and out of stock quickly, we are talking months here max, not years, so it's totally doable and should have been done.
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Which will shift the deadline for the non cache products if you want to have sufficient stock.
Win2012R2 said:
Is the problem with SoIC that it is God level tech that can not be replicated because all knowledge how it was done is now totally lost?
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Not really it is a from of hybrid bonding and Sony uses Hybrid Bonding for their sensors.
Win2012R2 said:
If AMD makes commitment, and it can't be too expensive, this ain't N2 fabs, then everything will be done with bells on. That's the problem - AMD.
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N2 Wafer is ridiculously expensive compared to what they are paying now for N4P at minimum 50% increase is guaranteed in Wafer cost.
 
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X3D doesn't add value for majority of application, making whole portfolio base on such process is idiotic.
I have no doubt AMD if keep investing in such tech but it's mainly for AI accelerator. Ryzen X3D is a nice add-on.
 
511 said:
Which will shift the deadline for the non cache products if you want to have sufficient stock.
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You'll produce them and stock up, small number (those made first) goes for premium 3D models that take longer to finish than you launch the whole thing. It's not like launches are every quarter - they are once every 20-22 months, plenty of time available to plan it out and execute without usual paper launching.

Or at least announce at start that 3D will be in 3 months and start accepting pre-orders.

QuickyDuck said:
X3D doesn't add value for majority of application, making whole portfolio base on such process is idiotic.
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It's not idiotic when in the very near future they will be forced to use zero L3 cache on very expensive sub N2 processes, it will become totally essential, so making sure there is capacity for it NOW is smart thing to do.

That would just be "normal" cache sizes, premium "new 3D" stuff probably multi layer.

Also it's not idiotic at all to have best consumer CPU - people buy it even if they are actually GPU limited, this stuff SELLS.
 
I think before AMD Produces such thing if Intel launches Clearwater Forest on Q1 26 it would be comical they would become the first one to put cache and IMC in hybrid bonded die.
 
Win2012R2 said:
No, it does NOT have to launch later - they can first accumulate non-3D chips to actually have stock for launch, and some 3D ones that will be super popular and out of stock quickly, we are talking months here max, not years, so it's totally doable and should have been done.
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You're almost getting there. On the one hand you say that they don't have to launch later than after you say that you acknowledge that it would launch later by months. The latter part is right, if you assume there would be enough capacity to do so, which there isn't.
 
inquiss said:
On the one hand you say that they don't have to launch later than after you say that you acknowledge that it would launch later by months.
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They need to launch all this new stuff at the same time, or at least announce later (but not much) availability for desired parts.

What is better:
1) wait 20 months till launch, then X months while they make unannounced 3D parts and who knows if they do quick launch like Zen 5 - bloody pain knowing already new cool things about new CPUs
2) wait 23 months till launch - everything is available!

It's still a very long wait but the most painful wait is after they announce! 3 months before and after are not the same
 
Win2012R2 said:
They need to launch all this new stuff at the same time, or at least announce later (but not much) availability for desired parts.

What is better:
1) wait 20 months till launch, then X months while they make unannounced 3D parts and who knows if they do quick launch like Zen 5 - bloody pain knowing already new cool things about new CPUs
2) wait 23 months till launch - everything is available!

It's still a very long wait but the most painful wait is after they announce! 3 months before and after are not the same
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Thank you

So we've arrived at the conclusion that they can either launch earlier with everything or delay launch and have X3D ready for launch.

Exact delay depends on the SOIC capacity and how long the process itself takes. I think 3 months is a reasonable estimate for the process itself, unless anyone has better info?
 
I don't know the exact cycle but this time but this time have we thought about that you can stack a FinFET SRAM on Top of GAAFET SRAM ?
 
inquiss said:
So we've arrived at the conclusion that they can either launch earlier with everything or delay launch and have X3D ready for launch.
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No!

A delayed launch is a launch that was announced (with date) and then delayed - like Zen 5 was.

Getting all your ducks in a row is not a delayed launch - Apple could have launched in August if they did not have to do more complex newer Pro versions of phones, is their launch delayed? No - it's planned to launch together in perfect synchrony.

If we were to accept your logic then not launching product as soon as first items are finished is somehow delayed launch - not at all, enough should be made for launch and it's totally normal that it might take few months - like Apple does, which is why they sell a lot when they launch stuff when the price is at the highest point. There should be bloody stock at MSRP for longer than 5 seconds, that's now normalized but it's not acceptable!

What should be good stock for launch? Assuming even production it's obvious that new stuff should have a lot more than 1 month of production, I'd say 3-4 months minimum - with that in mind there is plenty of time to do 3D versions for the units made in month 1, that's the way to do it.

Downside? Beancounters at AMD will have having unsold inventory on balance sheet for 3-4 months.
 
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Win2012R2 said:
No!

A delayed launch is a launch that was announced (with date) and then delayed - like Zen 5 was.

Getting all your ducks in a row is not a delayed launch - Apple could have launched in August if they did not have to do more complex newer Pro versions of phones, is their launch delayed? No - it's planned to launch together in perfect synchrony.

If we were to accept your logic then not launching product as soon as first items are finished is somehow delayed launch - not at all, enough should be made for launch and it's totally normal that it might take few months - like Apple does, which is why they sell a lot when they launch stuff when the price is at the highest point. There should be bloody stock at MSRP for longer than 5 seconds, that's now normalized but it's not acceptable!

What should be good stock for launch? Assuming even production it's obvious that new stuff should have a lot more than 1 month of production, I'd say 3-4 months minimum - with that in mind there is plenty of time to do 3D versions for the units made in month 1, that's the way to do it.

Downside? Beancounters at AMD will have having unsold inventory on balance sheet for 3-4 months.
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Ah right, your whole argument this time has been about the word delay. Fair enough.

Glad we agreed in the end that a hypothetical launch of X3D chips available from the start would mean a later theoretical launch than if they didn't launch x3D chips at the start. The only way to do this is to launch ( I used the word delay) the lunch of non X3D chips.

You're right, it does mean unsold inventory and it does mean a delay in revenues. Both quite unpalatable.
 
inquiss said:
Ah right, your whole argument this time has been about the word delay. Fair enough.
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Is it a launch delay if they wait until 1000 CPUs ready? 10000? 1 mln?

How many days of production before launch means delay of launch?

Any big launch should be at least 3-4 months of production, not 1 week and not 1 month, this should be normal especially given that waiting cycle is almost 2 years anyway.
 
Win2012R2 said:
Is it a launch delay if they wait until 1000 CPUs ready? 10000? 1 mln?

How many days of production before launch means delay of launch?

Any big launch should be at least 3-4 months of production, not 1 week and not 1 month, this should be normal especially given that waiting cycle is almost 2 years anyway.
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Adding 3D stacking takes time. Thats the only concept you need to understand, which you already acknowledged. Let's knock this on the head.
 
511 said:
N2 Wafer is ridiculously expensive compared to what they are paying now for N4P at minimum 50% increase is guaranteed in Wafer cost.
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How big of a problem is that, really?

Let's say N4P is $20K and N2 is $30K, and our chips are 100mm^2, to give us nice round numbers to work with. That gives you 600 chips per wafer, costing about $33 on N4P and $50 on N2. Taking a yield hit (larger on N2 since N4P is mature) lets call that $38 for N4P and $60 for N2. Is it really going to be a major blow to AMD's profitability if they have to pay an extra $22 per chip on N2? It isn't like they have to use N2 across their whole product portfolio.

It already doesn't make sense to produce their lowest end stuff in N4P, and the crossover in ASP between where they have to stick with older nodes and where they can afford to pay more for newer nodes will continue to increase over time.
 
Doug S said:
How big of a problem is that, really?

Let's say N4P is $20K and N2 is $30K, and our chips are 100mm^2, to give us nice round numbers to work with. That gives you 600 chips per wafer, costing about $33 on N4P and $50 on N2. Taking a yield hit (larger on N2 since N4P is mature) lets call that $38 for N4P and $60 for N2. Is it really going to be a major blow to AMD's profitability if they have to pay an extra $22 per chip on N2? It isn't like they have to use N2 across their whole product portfolio.

It already doesn't make sense to produce their lowest end stuff in N4P, and the crossover in ASP between where they have to stick with older nodes and where they can afford to pay more for newer nodes will continue to increase over time.
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You are forgetting the design cost as well which also 1.6X also N4P wafer is 15.5K and N2 wafer is around 23-25K(this is my estimate based on N3 and from what i have heard).

1746037094312.jpeg
 
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511 said:
You are forgetting the design cost as well which also 1.6X also N4P wafer is 15.5K and N2 wafer is around 23-25K(this is my estimate based on N3 and from what i have heard).
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Even if we take your design cost numbers as gospel (which I don't, as adroc points out that makes non real world assumptions) you're talking a few hundred million dollars divided across all the chips. How many Zen 6 CPUs will AMD ship in total? Sounds like a couple bucks per CPU, which again is inflated because we're using those bogus IBS numbers.

As for the wafer cost figures, remember I did say quite clearly I was making up numbers so the math was easy/clear, but it doesn't affect my point. You might as well point out that Zen 6 dies won't all be 100mm^2 while you're at it...
 
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