Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[LightningZ71]

I see two things:

1) the stratospherically high RAM prices will measurably hurt consumer PC and DIY sales by taking away budget for other components. This will also drive up prices for GPUs as they use a lot of ram. If the rest of the computer is getting notably more expensive, there's going to be hard downward pressure on CPU prices. AMD can't really afford to raise prices very much for their "mid tier" parts. High end isn't price sensitive so long as you have clear leadership in enough areas.

2) AMD will do an impression of Spinal Tap and turn their top SKU up to 11. 24 core Ryzen 11 at a new price class. There is PLENTY of space between Ryzen and TR now.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I am waiting for how real is the leaked dynamic binary update cause Intel SW team don't have skill issue unlike the cache team

It looks cool but man that's gonna break a lotta games.

No, not for all users. And even what you mentioned is unknown.

Yes for all users and yes it is known.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD will do an impression of Spinal Tap and turn their top SKU up to 11. 24 core Ryzen 11 at a new price class. There is PLENTY of space between Ryzen and TR now.

They don't need to do anything besides normal ASP hikes.

If the rest of the computer is getting notably more expensive, there's going to be hard downward pressure on CPU prices. AMD can't really afford to raise prices very much for their "mid tier" parts. High end isn't price sensitive so long as you have clear leadership in enough areas.

Midrange isn't selling anything. 9800X3D is the thing people pay money for.

 

[Josh128]

I dont see Zen 6 gaming having much improved chops over Zen 5. Mostly in line with clock speed increases. Like Halo, new IO config will be more about idle power savings than anything else. Fancy looking, close together "tile" chiplet layout doesnt mean squat for gaming performance as Arrow Lake showed. New 12 core CCX might help a bit on a very small amount of titles that can make use of more than 8 cores, but like Bartlett Lake, it wont be the game changer that going from 4 to 8 core CCX was. Perhaps faster IF might help, if they manage that.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Yes for all users and yes it is known.

Ok, then please share the gaming and ST perf benchmarks numbers for Zen6 vs NVL-S.

Also, please share market research showing what all PC users care about.

How about reusing that 32% number?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Ok, then please share the gaming and ST perf benchmarks numbers for Zen6 vs NVL-S.

Begging again? That's silly.

Also, please share market research showing what all PC users care about.

The average top5 apps list for any PC anything will include very 1t JS apps.

How about reusing that 32% number?

Sure why not, 15% fmax 15% IPC here we gooooooooo

 

[Fjodor2001]

Begging again? That's silly.

Why silly if you say everything is already known. I’m also impressed that you’ve got your hands on final silicon for both Zen6 and NVL-S already even before they exist.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I’m also impressed that you’ve got your hands on final silicon for both Zen6 and NVL-S already even before they exist.

Oh, you don't need final Si to guide comp projections.
Plus IHVs tell you the projected perf themselves, see Venice .pptware and friends.

Why silly if you say everything is already known

There are much more productive ways to get the info you need instead of begging on a public forum.

 

[StefanR5R]

You mentioned it's bad for gaming. [...] Will we have to keep hearing this until NVL comes out?

Evidently he is talking about something else entirely than most else in this thread do. On the subject of computer performance in "gaming", many of us tend to think of realtime response in interactive games (action games). He on the other hand sounds as if he thinks about strictly throughput bound turn-based games, such as Chess, or Go. Or perhaps he is generating Sudoku puzzles a lot.

 

[LightningZ71]

They don't need to do anything besides normal ASP hikes.

Midrange isn't selling anything. 9800X3D is the thing people pay money for.

As compared to the 12/24 core parts, on DT, 9800x3d IS the current mid range. There's what, 3 SKU's below it and 4 SKUs above it?

An 8 core X3D Zen6 part would be filling the spot on the stack that the Zen5 6 core X3D part fills today. Assuming no intermediate bin, the 12 core Zen6 X3D part would be where the current 9800x3d is. That is, unless they grow the stack.

I'm not wholely convinced that the 8 core non-x3d Zen6 part will be less performant than the 9800x3d though, so that will impact things.

As for the top end, a 24 core Zen6 chip should comfortably beat any 32 core Zen2 thread ripper in everything but I/O, and probably carry that through Zen3.

 

[adroc_thurston]

9800x3d IS the current mid range.

It's a $500 CPU.
Midrange is like $250-300.

An 8 core X3D Zen6 part would be filling the spot on the stack that the Zen5 6 core X3D part fills today.

No, since the CCD costs more individually.

Assuming no intermediate bin, the 12 core Zen6 X3D part would be where the current 9800x3d is.

Lmao no you just sell a 12C X3D slab for $599.
The only new insert is the 24c SKU on the very-very top.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Oh, you don't need final Si to guide comp projections.
Plus IHVs tell you the projected perf themselves, see Venice .pptware and friends.
There are much more productive ways to get the info you need instead of begging on a public forum.

Here we go again with another "trust be bro".

 

[adroc_thurston]

Here we go again with another "trust be bro".

I didn't say that.
You just gotta stop begging.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I didn't say that.
You just gotta stop begging.

I'm not begging and I'm not trusting.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I'm not begging

Ok, then please share the gaming and ST perf benchmarks numbers for Zen6 vs NVL-S.

?
You can do something useful instead.
Try modeling IPC and freq ranges for NVL and Zen6 both, then model bLLC uplift for NVL and maybe the impact of 50% larger L3 for Zen6 in gaming.

 

[Fjodor2001]

?

Just wanted to confirm that you didn't have anything to back it up with but another trust me bro as usual. This is leading nowhere and is just spamming the thread. So I'm dropping this ping-pong now.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Just wanted to confirm that you didn't have anything to back it up with but another trust me bro as usual.

You're begging. That's bad. Try something useful instead.

Try modeling IPC and freq ranges for NVL and Zen6 both, then model bLLC uplift for NVL and maybe the impact of 50% larger L3 for Zen6 in gaming.

 

[CakeMonster]

1) the stratospherically high RAM prices will measurably hurt consumer PC and DIY sales by taking away budget for other components. This will also drive up prices for GPUs as they use a lot of ram. If the rest of the computer is getting notably more expensive, there's going to be hard downward pressure on CPU prices. AMD can't really afford to raise prices very much for their "mid tier" parts. High end isn't price sensitive so long as you have clear leadership in enough areas.

Yeah, its hard to imagine that DDR5-8000 will be widely available for acceptable prices at Zen6 release...

 

[StefanR5R]

I dont see Zen 6 gaming having much improved chops over Zen 5. Mostly in line with clock speed increases. [...]

There will also be main memory data rate increases. (Though no appreciable main memory latency decreases.)

An 8 core X3D Zen6 part would be filling the spot on the stack that the Zen5 6 core X3D part fills today. Assuming no intermediate bin, the 12 core Zen6 X3D part would be where the current 9800x3d is.

I disagree. Re 8c tier: One aspect is that an 8c X3D Olympic Ridge will be a technically better product than 8c X3D Granite Ridge, notably due to faster core clock and faster memory clock. The other aspect is that the competitive landscape in this segment won't be much different from today.
Re 12c tier: A 12c X3D Olympic Ridge will be something new, way better than 6c+6c X3D Granite Ridge and in a variety of cases even preferable over 8c+8c X3D Granite Ridge.

1) the stratospherically high RAM prices will measurably hurt consumer PC and DIY sales by taking away budget for other components. This will also drive up prices for GPUs as they use a lot of ram. If the rest of the computer is getting notably more expensive, there's going to be hard downward pressure on CPU prices. AMD can't really afford to raise prices very much for their "mid tier" parts. High end isn't price sensitive so long as you have clear leadership in enough areas.

I suspect that they will very much prefer their ASPs to follow along with the current inflationary trends.

 

[inquiss]

Yeah, its hard to imagine that DDR5-8000 will be widely available for acceptable prices at Zen6 release...

Luckily AMD has a cache slab that makes super fast RAM less important...

 

[adroc_thurston]

One aspect is that an 8c X3D Olympic Ridge will be a technically better product than 8c X3D Granite Ridge, notably due to faster core clock and faster memory clock. The other aspect is that the competitive landscape in this segment won't be much different from today.

It has 50% more LLC wtaf are you guys on

 

[LightningZ71]

Isn't Medusa coming to the desktop too? Doesn't the entire stack get moved? I expect all the SKUs to be notably more expensive in their relative position already. I still think that a properly specced 8 core vanilla Zen6 will be considerably faster than the vanilla 9800x.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Isn't Medusa coming to the desktop too

Which one? Like MDS1 lo? Yeah for OEM duties way down the line.

 

[LightningZ71]

There will also be main memory data rate increases. (Though no appreciable main memory latency decreases.)

I disagree. Re 8c tier: One aspect is that an 8c X3D Olympic Ridge will be a technically better product than 8c X3D Granite Ridge, notably due to faster core clock and faster memory clock. The other aspect is that the competitive landscape in this segment won't be much different from today.
Re 12c tier: A 12c X3D Olympic Ridge will be something new, way better than 6c+6c X3D Granite Ridge and in a variety of cases even preferable over 8c+8c X3D Granite Ridge.

I suspect that they will very much prefer their ASPs to follow along with the current inflationary trends.

They can prefer those higher ASPs all they want to. Given current economic data in the US and much of Europe, discretionary spending is pulling back. They can ask all they want, if no one is buying it, save for the small volume of "money is no object" buyers, they'll just collect dust on shelves and they'll take a loss on production.

It's their call.

 

[StefanR5R]

It has 50% more LLC wtaf are you guys on

I admit I had forgotten this when I posted. On the other hand, I am not sure what the actual effect of 144(?) MB over 96 MB is going to be.