Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[adroc_thurston]

Grace Blackwell is a thing, a big thing

Oh Grace is just a shoddy IMC there.

His earnings just moved AMD +4% in AH trading on the second day of -3.5%.

AMD moves randomly for random reasons at random intervals. Boring.

 

[Josh128]

Oh Grace is just a shoddy IMC there.

AMD moves randomly for random reasons at random intervals. Boring.

There was nothing random about this move. Its currently +4.50% in pre-trading.

 

[adroc_thurston]

There was nothing random about this move. Its currently +4.50% in pre-trading.

It is random, it'll bounce down later on.

 

[Josh128]

It is random, it'll bounce down later on.

No it isnt random, not even a little bit. Its based 100% on Nvidias earnings and outlook released yesterday afternoon.

 

[adroc_thurston]

No it isnt random, not even a little bit. Its based 100% on Nvidias earnings and outlook released yesterday afternoon.

It'll bounce down as usual.
Random stuff, market ain't rational enough for anything else.

 

[adroc_thurston]

No it isnt random, not even a little bit. Its based 100% on Nvidias earnings and outlook released yesterday afternoon.

Any updates here

 

[Joe NYC]

Any updates here

Moved along with the market and being "High Beta", experienced bigger swings than the rest of the marked.

 

[Doug S]

No it isnt random, not even a little bit. Its based 100% on Nvidias earnings and outlook released yesterday afternoon.

In the short term movements are indeed kinda random, at least for those who don't have the level of market visibility investment banks and hedge funds do. To wit, the Nvidia pop from its earnings and outlook evaporated as people focused on their 10Q warning regarding the $100 billion OpenAI "commitment" and others that there are no guarantees any of them will be completed as currently planned.

If spending with Nvidia is reduced, that hurts AMD more because they're the second choice you turn to when Nvidia's order backlog is too big. Thus AMD opening up a few percent and ending the day down nearly 8% - far more than Nvidia dropped.

 

[Josh128]

In the short term movements are indeed kinda random, at least for those who don't have the level of market visibility investment banks and hedge funds do. To wit, the Nvidia pop from its earnings and outlook evaporated as people focused on their 10Q warning regarding the $100 billion OpenAI "commitment" and others that there are no guarantees any of them will be completed as currently planned.

If spending with Nvidia is reduced, that hurts AMD more because they're the second choice you turn to when Nvidia's order backlog is too big. Thus AMD opening up a few percent and ending the day down nearly 8% - far more than Nvidia dropped.

How can you say its random and then turn around and immediately say its movement was solely based on information from Nvidias earnings call? lol.

 

[Josh128]

Any updates here

Nope, its still completely following Nvidias movement, its the opposite of random. Its quite specific.

 

[Doug S]

Nope, its still completely following Nvidias movement, its the opposite of random. C'mon man, do you know the definition of random?

The Nvidia stuff is what is random. You can never be sure what the big money is going to focus on. Yesterday it was all about beating already high estimates and their rosy outlook, today it was about fears that many of the spending commitments those rosy outlooks are based on are not worth the electrons their printed with.

If you can't know for sure which way Nvidia's stock will move based on their earnings you can't know which way AMD's stock will move other than "the same direction as Nvidia".

 

[Josh128]

The Nvidia stuff is what is random. You can never be sure what the big money is going to focus on. Yesterday it was all about beating already high estimates and their rosy outlook, today it was about fears that many of the spending commitments those rosy outlooks are based on are not worth the electrons their printed with.

If you can't know for sure which way Nvidia's stock will move based on their earnings you can't know which way AMD's stock will move other than "the same direction as Nvidia".

I didnt say anything about Nvidias movement not being random. AMDs is not, its following Nvidias movement. If AMDs movement was random, it wouldnt look like this, completely following the movements of Nvidia, shown in blue.

 

[fastandfurious6]

there's nothing rational about the market, it's all speculation.....

just like everything here???

 

[fastandfurious6]

I speculate AMD as undisputed king of computing for all time to come

I invest all my life savings to AMD

Thus my will will be manifested

Long live AMD

 

[poke01]

I speculate AMD as undisputed king of computing for all time to come

I invest all my life savings to AMD

Thus my will will be manifested

Long live AMD

I rather not give my life to a corpo but you do you. AMD is not the undisputed king in every market but yeah logical thinking isn’t your strong suit.

 

[poke01]

I can’t help but engage with this troll, he’s very good at this ngl

 

[LightningZ71]

The mechanism is more related to automated/AI based trading algorithms. AMD moves primarily with the broader AI market currently as they are judged most on their AI footprint before anything else. The issue is that Nvidia represents such a massive share of the market, and the trading algorithms react so quickly, that it's difficult to isolate the cause/effect direction between Nvidia and the market as a whole.

Make no mistake, the algorithms digested Nvidia's disclosures and sussed out that there is mischief afoot and didn't like it.

 

[fastandfurious6]

I rather not give my life to a corpo but you do you. AMD is not the undisputed king in every market but yeah logical thinking isn’t your strong suit.

whooosh..... it's called humor

on serious speculation, AMD already captured most markets as #1 and they will capture more if not all. also AI if it weren't for Cuda superiority

as an aside what is the difference between humor and "trolling" for you?

 

[Bigos]

You have not asked me personally, but I can answer you:

A joke once in a while is humor.

A joke every (other) post is trolling.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

I'm like the bad news guy but MALL is gone across AMD starting next year.

It's only bad news if it means performance regression. Otherwise it's just an architectural shift due to faster RAM becoming available and whatever stuff universal compression allows for.

 

[fastandfurious6]

A joke once in a while is humor.

A joke every (other) post is trolling.

if so then then that's benign. innocent jokes aren't 'trolling', some give that word a very bad rap making it mean something sinister.

what about accurate facts or mostly accurate speculation inside jokes?



ontopic, is there anything left for zen 5 speculation? we know everything about it now right

 

[adroc_thurston]

Otherwise it's just an architectural shift due to faster RAM becoming available and whatever stuff universal compression allows for.

This has nothing to do with DRAM speeds and everything to do with AMD being cheap and chopping tf outta their SRAM allotments in client.

 

[Abwx]

I noticed that at NBC KRK CB R15 ST are routinely 30-35% lower than what they should be, curiously their first AI 330 test also exhibit this discrepancy since it was also the case with their first AI 350 test.

Since other CB versions tests seems accurate this point to some deliberate move,
i mean, any competent reviewer would see that something is not right at all.

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Dual-debut-in-the-Lenovo-IdeaPad-Slim-5-16-Ryzen-AI-5-330-and-Radeon-820M-in-review.1166676.0.html

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Large-business-laptop-with-AMD-Ryzen-Pro-impresses-Lenovo-ThinkPad-T16-Gen-4-review.1167534.0.html

 

[coercitiv]

is there anything left for zen 5 speculation? we know everything about it now right

so presumably we are no longer speculating, which goes against your previous assessment of the forums:

it's all speculation.....

just like everything here???

 

[StefanR5R]

is there anything left for zen 5 speculation?

Gorgon Point. Sorano.