Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[jdubs03]

I still can’t find any performance numbers just picture of the laptop

You have to select into the ellipses. But here you go (it’s in the 2nd image):

 

[Joe NYC]

Exactly this. Some rumor came out that Zen 2 was going to be stupidly low priced and so many people bought it. People thought I was an idiot for suggesting otherwise (not on this forum).



If those prices are accurate, I'll eat a can of cat food. I would guess more like $250/350/500/600 (maybe even 650) respectively. Maybe we should make a Google doc like the one where we put in IPC/clock guesses so we can see how wrong we all end up being .

My expectation was that Zen 5 MSRPs would be the same as Zen 4 MSRPs. But setting that aside:

If Zen 5 has identical BOM, fits in the same socket, there is not a big incentive for AMD to continue fabbing Zen 4 in addition to Zen 5, if Zen 5 completely supersedes it.

And if AMD non-V-Cache models are slated to lower end / budget, there is no reason to have both Zen 4 and Zen 5 occupy that same space.

Maybe it is hard to picture this. prior to Zen 5 V-Cache release but think past Zen 5 V-Cache release.

At that point, it will make total sense for non-V-Cache to slot exactly as a replacement of Zen 4, with same retail pricing, V-Cache models to have premium pricing, and Zen 4 to slowly disappear.

So, it is just how you get from here to there. Pricing Zen 5 high, and then 3 months later giving it deep discount seems like a sub-optimal solution.

Also, another argument that these prices could be real is that AMD is holding this pricing secret far longer than normal. If Zen 5 MSRP = Zen 4 MSRP, there is no reason to keep pricing secret, because people will not stop buying current Zen 4 if Zen 5 is going to be priced higher. But if Zen 5 is targeting Zen 4 street prices, then people would absolutely stop buying Zen 4, for 2 months, waiting for Zen 5.

 

[igor_kavinski]

But if Zen 5 is targeting Zen 4 street prices, then people would absolutely stop buying Zen 4, for 2 months, waiting for Zen 5.

Knowledgeable people would stop buying. Not the regular crowd. It's not like local PC shop will advise their customers to skip Zen 4 and wait a week or two for Zen 5. I bet there will be people who buy Zen 4 with online Zen 5 recommendations staring them in the face because they have no idea what Zen 5 is coz their best friend/family techie recommended Zen 4 and that's what they are gonna buy. I've seen far too many people being happy buying old tech out of ignorance. Makes it really hard for me to keep my mouth shut when they tell me what a deal they scored. I tried it a few times. They end up getting the feeling that I'm jealous of their purchase

 

[Hans Gruber]

Knowledgeable people would stop buying. Not the regular crowd. It's not like local PC shop will advise their customers to skip Zen 4 and wait a week or two for Zen 5. I bet there will be people who buy Zen 4 with online Zen 5 recommendations staring them in the face because they have no idea what Zen 5 is coz their best friend/family techie recommended Zen 4 and that's what they are gonna buy. I've seen far too many people being happy buying old tech out of ignorance. Makes it really hard for me to keep my mouth shut when they tell me what a deal they scored. I tried it a few times. They end up getting the feeling that I'm jealous of their purchase

The play is to wait for Zen 5 to release. Then wait for the Zen 4 bundle deals with CPU, motherboard and 32GB of memory deals. Then wait up to 6 months to replace the Zen 4 CPU with a Zen 5 CPU.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Here's a car radiator for you, just $100 here (you can also buy bykski 1080 battery for roughly the same, but it'd be worse in terms of fin area )

View attachment 103165

Just a barely on topic FYI: there are many reasons why wc wackos may use a MO-RA3 420 or similar over a car radiator. The big one is that unless you get a copper radiator, you are going to be a very unhappy customer when you mix aluminum and copper in your wc loop. So when you are running your Zen5 ES, please don't use an actual car radiator (which are mostly aluminum, and have been for a very long time)! Thanks.

Feels like 2018.

Let's skip the covid this time around.

 

[Thibsie]

Just a barely on topic FYI: there are many reasons why wc wackos may use a MO-RA3 420 or similar over a car radiator. The big one is that unless you get a copper radiator, you are going to be a very unhappy customer when you mix aluminum and copper in your wc loop. So when you are running your Zen5 ES, please don't use an actual car radiator (which are mostly aluminum, and have been for a very long time)! Thanks.


Let's skip the covid this time around.

I can't imagine the weight of a copper car radiator 😳😳

 

[yuri69]

Over the period of a year, this will amount to millions in sales for AMD - or alternatively millions of lost sales. Millions of lost sales sacrificed at the altar of some great marketing strategy.

X3D is a DIY desktop thing aka tiny niche. So a marketing gain might outweigh any lost sales.

 

[gaav87]

@igor_kavinski @Hail The Brain Slug
Look i was right 30k views, 35re-tweets for wccfcs/hassan alone. I was wrong on the 100+ tweets its like 1000+ now xD

 

[tsamolotoff]

Just a barely on topic FYI: there are many reasons why wc wackos may use a MO-RA3 420 or similar over a car radiator.

The one on this picture is actually 100% copper, FYI.

 

[therealmongo]

yall becoming infamous

 

[therealmongo]

You should start watermarking your charts like MLID does only with "Tech Journalism Is Dead"

actually
"please dont kill me"

 

[igor_kavinski]

@igor_kavinski @Hail The Brain Slug
Look i was right 30k views, 35re-tweets for wccfcs/hassan alone. I was wrong on the 100+ tweets its like 1000+ now xD

Share the link please!

 

[Rheingold]

I've seen far too many people being happy buying old tech out of ignorance.

"Hey, that's not old tech. It's a new device, in pristine condition. Even the stickers on it still look nice."

 

[igor_kavinski]

"Hey, that's not old tech. It's a new device, in pristine condition. Even the stickers on it still look nice."

Nothing infuriates me more than my blissfully ignorant and stubborn IT department NOT buying Ryzens and instead getting old 12th gen Dell PCs at bloated 2024 prices for what should be Ryzen 7000 office PCs, even with frickin' Ryzen 7600 non-X. As long as these people get to be in charge of hardware acquisition, Intel is never going out of business.

 

[Josh128]

The one on this picture is actually 100% copper, FYI.

Not if its $100.

 

[gaav87]

Share the link please!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814396150038049033

-22,4k views

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814399490268508422

-12,5k views
https://x.com/KotoriKanase/status/1814452678514356724 -26,2k views 130 re-tweets
Twitter alone ~100k views+
It even landed on major Polish tech sites: benchmark.pl / notebookcheck / german: pcgameshardware.de Some japanese and chinese sites xD Did not check other but alot of spread xD

 

[Thunder 57]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814396150038049033

-22,4k views

https://twitter.com/x/status/1814399490268508422

-12,5k views
https://x.com/KotoriKanase/status/1814452678514356724 -26,2k views 130 re-tweets
Twitter alone ~100k views+
It even landed on major Polish tech sites: benchmark.pl / notebookcheck / german: pcgameshardware.de Some japanese and chinese sites xD Did not check other but alot of spread xD

Hope people are ready to be disappointed.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

Hope people are ready to be disappointed.

But it's 100% true and legit, and that's my guarantee! I was just on a video call with Lisa this morning!

 

[CakeMonster]

Just got back from lunch with Lisa and she claimed she was gonna drop Z6 for Xmas because the media was getting too comfortable with predicting stuff. Then she just got up, said 'YOLO' and left me with the bill.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Assuming the leaked prices are correct, what could be the reason?

Change of strategy to no longer go for max perf at high price, but instead smaller perf increase but at lower price.

Consumers do not notice the perf difference anyway and are short on $$$ due to inflation (and high value of $$$ in countries outside US).

So we’ll see a price war instead of a perf war?

 

[StinkyPinky]

$499 is crazy cheap, I will believe it when I see it.

 

[Hans Gruber]

Assuming the leaked prices are correct, what could be the reason?

Change of strategy to no longer go for max perf at high price, but instead smaller perf increase but at lower price.

Consumers do not notice the perf difference anyway and are short on $$$ due to inflation (and high value of $$$ in countries outside US).

So we’ll see a price war instead of a perf war?

Maybe AMD has knowledge of the capability of Arrow Lake and is aggressively pricing Zen 5 with a 2 or 3 month lead over an Arrow Lake release. A very smart move by AMD if true.

 

[Thunder 57]

April launch
30%+ IPC
$499 9950X (Pending. 8 Ball says, "Outlook Hazy")

 

[branch_suggestion]

Segment/corporate GM's are good enough that they can price for market share and rely on value added V-Cache SKUs for margins.
Not that complicated for this pricing to be true, Intel has no answer for Z5X3D until H2 2026, just in time to get slapped down by Medusa.

 

[poke01]

9950x will most likely be $599.