Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD is pretty much sticking to an aggressive timeline. Nothing has significantly changed.

Yea if anything Zen5 is earlier than it was planned to be.
They got lucky but still.

 

[Joe NYC]

Yea if anything Zen5 is earlier than it was planned to be.
They got lucky but still.

So, if Turin is sampling, using the same CCD, and desktop IO die is unchanged, this could make it possible to release Zen 5 desktop early.

18 months from Zen 4 release (end of Q1 2024) would be nice.

 

[adroc_thurston]

this could make it possible to release Zen 5 desktop early.

Duh.

So, if Turin is sampling

So is Granite Ridge really.
Strix either sampled in RVPs or soon(tm), there are Linux 6.6 kernel patches to allow vendor-side validation using -staging.

 

[igor_kavinski]

AMD is pretty much sticking to an aggressive timeline.

Server products, yes. Client, not so much.

AM5 APU: MIA

RX 7700/7800: At least six months late

7950X3D: Should have been a new year's gift

7800X3D: They held onto it too long coz apparently, they hate money

7500F: This, along with A620 $99 mobos at AM5 launch, would have made them good money and steered budget conscious people away from H610M and Core i3-12100, thereby increasing their customer base.

But no. Their priorities lie in server. They might as well create their own cloud and let all of us rent their compute capacity in the form of VMs. While they are at it, they better put an end to DIY gaming computers by offering a cloud game streaming service using their GPUs that they overproduced during the pandemic.

No, I'm joking, Lisa. Please don't do all of the above!

 

[jpiniero]

Regardless, the 5600G/5700G APUs are selling very well. That is despite them not being pushed by AMD at all as much as the non-APU desktop PCs, and still being on Zen3. So obviously there is marked demand for that kinda CPU/APU with better iGPU than the "regular" desktop AMD CPUs have.

The 5600G is selling... okay... but only because of it's price ($120 at Newegg). The 5700G is the same price as the 5700X, and isn't selling.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AM5 APU: MIA

No market until DDR5 is cheapo.

RX 7700/7800: At least six months late

Those were contained to a dungeon.

7950X3D: Should have been a new year's gift

7800X3D: They held onto it too long coz apparently, they hate money

what

7500F: This, along with A620 $99 mobos at AM5 launch, would have made them good money and steered budget conscious people away from H610M and Core i3-12100, thereby increasing their customer base.

They don't care about budget markets unless comp pressure is high.
Granite Ridge won't have any cheap SKUs for a looooooooooong while.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Granite Ridge won't have any cheap SKUs for a looooooooooong while.

Yeah coz AM4 and Zen 4 will serve as the budget options then. But a lot of their decisions look like they are being merciful to their competitors and letting them make money.

 

[adroc_thurston]

look like they are being merciful to their competitors and letting them make money.

No?
no.
Not shredding your margins for volume is a good idea.

 

[Joe NYC]

7950X3D: Should have been a new year's gift

7800X3D: They held onto it too long coz apparently, they hate money

Those things are ready when they are ready. The problem is, 7800x3d was ready first, no validation of scheduling of 2 CCDs was necessary, yet, AMD released 7950x3d first.

Kind of like x670E with 28 USB ports, PCIe 5 (with nothing to plug in) vs. B650E with 22 USB ports with PCIe 5 (with nothing to plug in) before A620, making the AM5 platform even less appealing, on top of the expensive DDR5.

 

[Joe NYC]

No market until DDR5 is cheapo.

Those were contained to a dungeon.

what

They don't care about budget markets unless comp pressure is high.
Granite Ridge won't have any cheap SKUs for a looooooooooong while.

Manufacturing cost (of the entire package, not just CCD) should not be much higher, between Zen 4 and Zen 5. Maybe 10-15%?

It will be interesting that AMD will have 3 viable generations of CPUs on the market at the same time: Zen 3 on AM4 with DDR4, Zen 4 + 5 on AM5.

It will be interesting how AMD manages the transition. It's good to have a lot of good options...

 

[Fjodor2001]

The 5600G is selling... okay... but only because of it's price ($120 at Newegg). The 5700G is the same price as the 5700X, and isn't selling.

5700G is doing well too, actually better than 5600G according to this. Apparently a lot of people want a better iGPU.

 

[Mopetar]

I'll be impressed if AMD can pull that off again, especially at a higher price point. Somehow I don't think that'll happen though.

We might see a repeat of that with Zen 6. By then the AM5 platform will be quite mature and board and RAM prices will have come down a lot. Early AM5 adopters will have an upgrade path and there could be a substantial amount of performance to be gained by going from Zen 4 to Zen 6.

There will also be a lot of people who bought/built a Zen 3 system who will be looking for an upgrade. Good Zen 6 performance mixed with a platform that had a lot of inexpensive options may be an appealing option for those consumers as well.

Perhaps another part of why Zen 3 saw such enthusiasm from consumers is that it was the first time in a long time that AMD had the gaming crown and basically the best CPU across the board. I don't know if Zen 6 will see any kind of repeat of that, but even assuming AMD is generally competitive I think they'll see more sales due to the aforementioned reasons.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I don't know if Zen 6 will see any kind of repeat of that

Zen5 is that.
Except better.

 

[A///]

Zen5 is that.
Except better.

such as?

intel's next few generations will be as hot as they are now despite a node shrink. intel can double as a cheese toastie maker. amd cannot. can it beat that?

 

[H433x0n]

intel's next few generations will be as hot as they are now despite a node shrink.

Unfortunately I wouldn’t count on that being the case for ARL since it’ll be on the extremely boring (albeit efficient) TSMC silicon.

Enthusiast tinkering/overclocking will be dead for the next generation with both x86 vendors using TSMC.

 

[adroc_thurston]

it’ll be on the extremely boring (albeit efficient) TSMC silicon.

I don't think Zen4 (which runs IBM clocks) is boring and that's very much on N5p.

Enthusiast tinkering/overclocking will be dead for the next generation with both x86 vendors using TSMC.

It's been dead for many-many years.

 

[H433x0n]

I don't think Zen4 (which runs IBM clocks) is boring and that's very much on N5p.

It's been dead for many-many years.

It's not an issue with AMD, it's more of a TSMC thing. They don't make silicon that scales well with voltage/power. The world record for a 7950X on LN2 is 6.45ghz, while there have been multiple people who have pushed the 13900K past 8ghz on LN2. The same holds true for overclocking memory.

It's dumb and totally irresponsible but cool in a nerdy way.

 

[soresu]

Also ideally 16C/32T CPU of latest Zen generation. With good iGPU. Will a MiniPC really be able to cool that heat, without a very noisy small diameter high speed fan anyway?

For now no - but if Frore's PR is not completely bunk they have ambitions to increase their AirJet product cooling potential to fit such an envelope.

We already saw at least one demo mini PC using their 1st gen SKU earlier this year, so the OEMs eyes (and engineering depts) are already on this.

Although cut Zen4 down from its 4.5-5 Ghz target to something more reasonable like 3-3.5 Ghz and you are probably already within spitting distance of reasonable thermals.

Zen5 may increase thermals for the same frequency clock and core count due to the wider core, but Zen6 will almost certainly be at the point where 16C is easily achievable in mobile and mini PC envelopes.

 

[adroc_thurston]

hey don't make silicon that scales well with voltage/power.

Yea N7X/N5X/N4X/N3X definitely don't exist.

but cool in a nerdy way.

no it's not.

 

[Ajay]

no it's not.

What, it literally is *cool*. Secondly, if you are not interested in LN2 overclocking feats, just say so - rather than dismiss the possibility others may find it interesting. IDK, is this a language thing with you?

 

[A///]

Unfortunately I wouldn’t count on that being the case for ARL since it’ll be on the extremely boring (albeit efficient) TSMC silicon.

Enthusiast tinkering/overclocking will be dead for the next generation with both x86 vendors using TSMC.

I don't think any tsmc has been confirmed yet. enthusiast tinkering has long been dead. oc on intel even on liquid is a useless pet project.

 

[dacostafilipe]

Server products, yes. Client, not so much.

That was the case since the first Zen core.

AM5 APU: MIA

Market not ready, see DDR prices.

RX 7700/7800: At least six months late

A lot of 6800/6700 stock.

7950X3D: Should have been a new year's gift

7800X3D: They held onto it too long coz apparently, they hate money

Halo product.

But no. Their priorities lie in server.

Yes, they create server cores that can be used on desktop, not the other way around.

 

[DrMrLordX]

They have demonstrated twice that they have zero interest in cannibalizing the sales of their non-3D chips by releasing the 3D chips on the same day.

With Vermeer and Raphael, the cache die stacking wasn't ready yet at the time of release on desktop. However...

Raphael-X coming after Raphael is kind of a manufacturing reality. Everybody will now expect it with Zen 5 as well.

TSMC should have cache die stacking ready on N4P by the time Zen5 hits desktops. If not already.

That's just platform costs things.

Ehhhh

If you had said that about the 7800X you'd probably be right. 7950X had fairly tepid sales, never really sold out, and saw a price drop versus the lackluster 13900K. 7950X3D sold out for awhile. People were waiting for it.

We might see a repeat of that with Zen 6. By then the AM5 platform will be quite mature and board and RAM prices will have come down a lot.

Are we sure that Zen6 will be on AM5?

 

[adroc_thurston]

7950X had fairly tepid sales,

Not that much better over 5950X so people just kept their rigs.
Zen3 was a huge cycle DT-wise.

Are we sure that Zen6 will be on AM5?

There's a slight chance it's not, but for the most part looks AM5 to me still.

 

[RnR_au]

I read not changing as identical.

Delaying Zen 5 desktop to get RDNA 3.5 into the "emergency" iGPU, that's there to only light up the PC or for Windows desktop apps - would an unnecessary delay.

I hear you, but there is this bit...



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