Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[DrMrLordX]

How did they Osborne themselves with Zen 4?

AMD let slip that Raphael-X parts would come later, so a lot of people skipped over the 7950X. The 7950X3D predictably sold quite well.

Not a relevant metric for DIY tho.

Just look at how well Zen3 sold. You couldn't get anything but a 5800X for a long, long time. Unless you paid scalper prices. Zen4 did not offer a repeat.

I'll be impressed if AMD can pull that off again, especially at a higher price point. Somehow I don't think that'll happen though.

 

[Kepler_L2]

AMD let slip that Raphael-X parts would come later, so a lot of people skipped over the 7950X. The 7950X3D predictably sold quite well.


Just look at how well Zen3 sold. You couldn't get anything but a 5800X for a long, long time. Unless you paid scalper prices. Zen4 did not offer a repeat.

I'll be impressed if AMD can pull that off again, especially at a higher price point. Somehow I don't think that'll happen though.

Zen5 vs RPL-R is a bigger gap than Zen3 vs CML, so I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I have installed a few 2P+8E core laptops (i5-1235U). Various SW installation feeling was anything but snappy compared to Ryzen 6/8 core offerings).

The one I tried was a 13.3 inch Dell XPS ($1500+) with an i7-1365U and LPDDR5. Didn't get to spend more time with it to do anything too stressful but software installed quickly enough and system didn't get stuck anywhere with Outlook downloading emails in the background. But it left a bad taste in my mouth to see what Intel is doing. No way I would pay even half that much for just two P-cores.

 

[yuri69]

Just look at how well Zen3 sold. You couldn't get anything but a 5800X for a long, long time. Unless you paid scalper prices. Zen4 did not offer a repeat.

I'll be impressed if AMD can pull that off again, especially at a higher price point. Somehow I don't think that'll happen though.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Zen 3 success ride on the covid lifestyle & money wave? Nowadays we have no covid money, the lifestyle is different, supply shortages have been mostly resolved, and last but not least, the overall economy situations is getting bad.

Times of Average Joe buying a new PC/console because he got locked at home with his rent pre-paid will hopefully not repeat.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Zen 3 success ride on the covid lifestyle & money wave?

At that time, everyone was surprised that AMD finally regained the gaming crown and no one expected Intel to be able to counter it with the way they were struggling (10900K and the Coolermaster Subzero AIO). Intel did manage to gain respect back with the Alder Lake launch but for a lot of people at Zen 3 launch, it seemed that Intel was history. And now it seems history will be repeating itself with the Zen 5 launch. Interesting times.

 

[Thibsie]

Well, no one really runs VMs on 282 ultrabooks.

Work laptop. No choice.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Zen5 vs RPL-R is a bigger gap than Zen3 vs CML, so I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again.

Perhaps. Market conditions in general are different though, and if AMD does raise the price to something like $999 . . . it may be difficult to get people to abandon the 7950X3D at that price. Unless, of course, AMD sells 3D cache versions of the chip at that price point on day one.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Zen 3 success ride on the covid lifestyle & money wave? Nowadays we have no covid money, the lifestyle is different, supply shortages have been mostly resolved, and last but not least, the overall economy situations is getting bad.

Times of Average Joe buying a new PC/console because he got locked at home with his rent pre-paid will hopefully not repeat.

That is one of the market factors in play, yes. There are still people chugging along on their covid machines. Not all of them have been replaced yet, and in the case of the DiY machines, it's possible that many will stay on those for 5+ years.

 

[jpiniero]

Should say that AMD's costs are likely to be decently higher with Zen 5. 30% IPC doesn't come for free. Maybe AMD can weave some TSMC magic to keep the core size from becoming an Intel-like chonker but the dies are going to have to be bigger. That doesn't even include what they do with the IO die.

 

[RnR_au]

That doesn't even include what they do with the IO die.

The rumour is that its not changing... other than going to RDNA 3.5 I think.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Unless, of course, AMD sells 3D cache versions of the chip at that price point on day one.

They have demonstrated twice that they have zero interest in cannibalizing the sales of their non-3D chips by releasing the 3D chips on the same day.

 

[Joe NYC]

AMD let slip that Raphael-X parts would come later, so a lot of people skipped over the 7950X. The 7950X3D predictably sold quite well.

Raphael-X coming after Raphael is kind of a manufacturing reality. Everybody will now expect it with Zen 5 as well.

So it can be thought of as a built in Osborne effect, or also as a product refresh that will come a few months after the original was introduced.

7950x3d vs. 7800x3d was just an own goal by the marketing, wanted to have one product with longest bars in all categories, rather than recognizing that Gaming is its own, distinct (and larger) category in desktop than content creators who want MT performance.

If AMD released 7800x3d and just called it the best Gaming chip, then it would encourage reviews to stress gaming tests in their reviews, where it has greater advantage of the competition (from both other AMD chips and Intel chips).

Releasing 7950x3d first only started a debate about asymmetric chips, upside and downside, rather than 7800x3d as a gaming chip, which has only upsides.

Which really reminds me of the funniest AMD related tweet I have seen for a while:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696161944497955155

 

[Joe NYC]

The rumour is that its not changing... other than going to RDNA 3.5 I think.

I read not changing as identical.

Delaying Zen 5 desktop to get RDNA 3.5 into the "emergency" iGPU, that's there to only light up the PC or for Windows desktop apps - would an unnecessary delay.

 

[Abwx]

In the roadmap displayed theses days at Hot Chips no reference is made about the nodes for Zen 5 based Epyc :

Hot Chips 2023: AMD verrät wenig mehr über „Siena“ und verwirrt

Nach Genoa, Bergamo und Genoa-X fehlt noch Siena in AMDs Familie der Zen-4-CPUs für Server. Zur Hot Chips gibt es (verwirrende) Details.

www.computerbase.de

 

[Fjodor2001]

I read not changing as identical.

Delaying Zen 5 desktop to get RDNA 3.5 into the "emergency" iGPU, that's there to only light up the PC or for Windows desktop apps - would an unnecessary delay.

I also read it as identical.

Sad, because AMD Zen4 is lagging behind Intel Raptor Lake on desktop with regards to iGPU performance.
So I would have liked both RDNA 3.5 as well as more CUs to get better iGPU performance on Zen5.

 

[Joe NYC]

I also read it as identical.

Sad, because AMD Zen4 is lagging behind Intel Raptor Lake on desktop with regards to iGPU performance.
So I would have liked both RDNA 3.5 as well as more CUs to get better iGPU performance on Zen5.

I don't think AMD wants to burden the desktop chips, that will be paired with dGPU with extra useless iGPU silicon. And potentially delayed Time to Market of desktop Zen 5.

Instead, AMD may, later on, release notebook APUs in AM5 socket, for those who want a decent iGPU performance with either Zen 4 and Zen 5 cores.

So far, no AM5 socket APUs for Phoenix. Well, Phoenix really just started shipping in volume not too long ago. So far, it seems to be working great in the MiniPCs. Which could be a good dividing line:

If you want good iGPU performance in desktop, get a MiniPC with Poenix mobile APU. If you want maximum graphics performance, get desktop CPU + dGPU.

The "I may want to upgrade later" people are likely insignificant part of the market.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I don't think AMD wants to burden the desktop chips, that will be paired with dGPU with extra useless iGPU silicon. And potentially delayed Time to Market of desktop Zen 5.

Instead, AMD may, later on, release notebook APUs in AM5 socket, for those who want a decent iGPU performance with either Zen 4 and Zen 5 cores.

So far, no AM5 socket APUs for Phoenix. Well, Phoenix really just started shipping in volume not too long ago. So far, it seems to be working great in the MiniPCs. Which could be a good dividing line:

If you want good iGPU performance in desktop, get a MiniPC with Poenix mobile APU. If you want maximum graphics performance, get desktop CPU + dGPU.

The "I may want to upgrade later" people are likely insignificant part of the market.

Not all Zen5 desktop CPUs will be paired with dGPUs. Some users want good iGPU performance, paired with a high performing CPU.

An option could be for AMD to release APU variants of Zen5 too (corresponding to e.g. 5700G, but preferably with a 16C/32T variant too) with better iGPU, but I've not heard anything about that.

There was a time when AMD was taking their iGPUs more seriously. Remember AMD Fusion, Heterogenous System Architecture (HSA) and all that?

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD let slip that Raphael-X parts would come later, so a lot of people skipped over the 7950X. The 7950X3D predictably sold quite well.

That's just platform costs things.

There was a time when AMD was taking their iGPUs more seriously

Yes a time before they had real good CPUs.

 

[Joe NYC]

Not all Zen5 desktop CPUs will be paired with dGPUs. Some users want good iGPU performance, paired with a high performing CPU.

An option could be for AMD to release APU variants of Zen5 too (corresponding to e.g. 5700G, but preferably with a 16C/32T variant too) with better iGPU, but I've not heard anything about that.

There was a time when AMD was taking their iGPUs more seriously. Remember AMD Fusion, Heterogenous System Architecture (HSA) and all that?

But why would you want a big desktop case if you are not going to put anything in it?

If you are not putting in the GPU, you can just as well get a MiniPC.

Current Phoenix MiniPCs perform much better than 5700G.

 

[Fjodor2001]

But why would you want a big desktop case if you are not going to put anything in it?

If you are not putting in the GPU, you can just as well get a MiniPC.

Current Phoenix MiniPCs perform much better than 5700G.

The case does not have to be that big. But should fit 5.25" 4K BD optical drive (yes I still use that!), and have option to add extension cards such as 10 Gbit Ethernet, and maybe dGPU later.

Also ideally 16C/32T CPU of latest Zen generation. With good iGPU. Will a MiniPC really be able to cool that heat, without a very noisy small diameter high speed fan anyway?

I don't think there's any Mini PC that fits that.

But you're right, for a lot of other users I think MiniPCs could be a good fit.

 

[Joe NYC]

The case does not have to be that big. But should fit 3.5" 4K BD optical drive (yes I still use that!), and have option to add extension cards such as 10 Gbit Ethernet, and maybe dGPU later.

Also ideally 16C/32T CPU of latest Zen generation. With good iGPU. Will a MiniPC really be able to cool that heat, without a very noisy small diameter high speed fan anyway?

I don't think there's any Mini PC that fits that.

But you're right, for a lot of other users I think MiniPCs could be a good fit.

As I said, the "maybe I will upgrade later" market is not that big.

The 10 Gbit Ethernet is too much of a niche for now. But some of the MiniPCs include dual 2.5 Gbit, and if you have a decent switch, it could combine the bandwidth.

 

[igor_kavinski]

AMD has gotten comfortably fat on server profits. They don't seem to be in a hurry to do anything these days. Intel being clumsy lets them be even more complacent.

 

[BorisTheBlade82]

The case does not have to be that big. But should fit 3.5" 4K BD optical drive (yes I still use that!), and have option to add extension cards such as 10 Gbit Ethernet, and maybe dGPU later.

Also ideally 16C/32T CPU of latest Zen generation. With good iGPU. Will a MiniPC really be able to cool that heat, without a very noisy small diameter high speed fan anyway?

I don't think there's any Mini PC that fits that.

But you're right, for a lot of other users I think MiniPCs could be a good fit.

BD optical drives were 5.25" the last time, I cared about them (2000s? 2010s? Not sure about that.) Are there foldable BDs available yet?

 

[Fjodor2001]

BD optical drives were 5.25" the last time, I cared about them (2000s? 2010s? Not sure about that.) Are there foldable BDs available yet?

Oups. I was a bit too fast there. Fixed it in the post now.

 

[Fjodor2001]

As I said, the "maybe I will upgrade later" market is not that big.

The 10 Gbit Ethernet is too much of a niche for now. But some of the MiniPCs include dual 2.5 Gbit, and if you have a decent switch, it could combine the bandwidth.

I know I have some special requirements, that's why I'm going DIY like many others on this forum instead of prebuilt. But anyway, I have a hard time seeing how MiniPCs will be able to effectively cool even 65W TDP. Doesn't the CPU throttle, or make a lot of noise from the tiny fan!?

Regardless, the 5600G/5700G APUs are selling very well. That is despite them not being pushed by AMD at all as much as the non-APU desktop PCs, and still being on Zen3. So obviously there is marked demand for that kinda CPU/APU with better iGPU than the "regular" desktop AMD CPUs have.

 

[Ajay]

AMD has gotten comfortably fat on server profits. They don't seem to be in a hurry to do anything these days. Intel being clumsy lets them be even more complacent.

What are you even talking about?? AMD is pretty much sticking to an aggressive timeline. Nothing has significantly changed.