Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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No desktop will be a small, least relevant extension of mobile starting with Zen6.
Won't ever have any relation to server anymore.
Period.

That's very sad trend, but I can see it.

The real desktop is really only left for Gamers who use dGPU. And the gamer market is not growing sufficiently.

For office productivity work, the MiniPCs are all that's needed to get the job done, in, like 99% of the cases. And the MiniPCs are now using mobile chips, like Phoenix.
 

Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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No it's good, you're getting a real system design step-change for Zen6 DT for the first time since 2019.

It is surprising that the server chiplet technology worked as well as it did in desktop, for as long as it is still working.

Zen 6 is really not that far away as it seems. Zen 5 is all locked in on path to release, and most of the work has now likely shifted to Zen 6.

No AMD would get into commercial too if they could, but that's kinda tough.

In addition to MiniPCs, using things like Phoenix and iGPU, there is this for desktop that I just came across. Seems like the commercial PCs will gravitate to one or another.

 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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Zen 6 is really not that far away as it seems. Zen 5 is all locked in on path to release, and most of the work has now likely shifted to Zen 6.
more and more I'm convinced he's an amd subcontractor or employee. he didn't correct me when I implied zen 5 is a go for a hard q2 release.
 

H433x0n

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Mar 15, 2023
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That's very sad trend, but I can see it.

It’s a very welcome change and pretty exciting to hear.

There’s no reason that Zen desktop has to be configured as a chiplet processor. It would benefit as either a monolithic processor or as tiled processor on top of an interposer.
 

adroc_thurston

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Jul 2, 2023
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Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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more and more I'm convinced he's an amd subcontractor or employee. he didn't correct me when I implied zen 5 is a go for a hard q2 release.

There is always +/- a quarter, when we are still 3+ quarters away from it.

At least this time, AMD does not have the new platform to worry about, so maybe half of the headaches, half of the things that can go wrong.

(And from Zen 4 launch, we see that a lot of things can go wrong, things that are of AMD making or outside influences)
 

Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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It’s a very welcome change and pretty exciting to hear.

There’s no reason that Zen desktop has to be configured as a chiplet processor. It would benefit as either a monolithic processor or as tiled processor on top of an interposer.

Intel's entire client side bet on the interposer may turn out to be one of the two:
- a fatal mistake
- a sub-optimal decision that made Intel's newest and latest parts less competitive in important client side segments.
 

H433x0n

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Mar 15, 2023
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Intel's entire client side bet on the interposer may turn out to be one of the two:
- a fatal mistake
- a sub-optimal decision that made Intel's newest and latest parts less competitive in important client side segments.
Why? A flavor of foveros is what everybody will be doing in 5 years anyway.

There is no performance benefit to having 7700X as a chiplet processor. It's a tiny amount of silicon, as a monolithic processor it'd only be like 150-160mm^2 of silicon - there'd practically be no difference in costs.
 

Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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Why? A flavor of foveros is what everybody will be doing in 5 years anyway.

Suppose you are right, but consider what happens in the first 4 of the 5 years:

In many segments of the client market, Intel will have to use older monolithic parts, that will be stuck in time (Intel has no money to fund another parallel development).

In the meantime, AMD will be releasing a new refresh every year, every year outdistancing Intell's old, legacy parts. (Raphael Lake ).
 

Fjodor2001

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Feb 6, 2010
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Just wonder what everyone's thought are with regards to how a likely Zen 5 top-of-the-line desktop AMD 8950X 16C will be able to compete against Intel Arrow Lake 8P + 32E cores?

Seems like in MT, AMD will be overrun given the available power consumption budget. Because "efficiency" cores will have better perf/watt. So was AMD late to the party with regards to big.LITTLE on desktop? Since the rumors are they will go big.LITTLE with Zen 6, I get the impression they agree it's a good design for desktop too and not only mobile/laptop.
 

H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
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Suppose you are right, but consider what happens in the first 4 of the 5 years:

In many segments of the client market, Intel will have to use older monolithic parts, that will be stuck in time (Intel has no money to fund another parallel development).

In the meantime, AMD will be releasing a new refresh every year, every year outdistancing Intell's old, legacy parts. (Raphael Lake ).
This is my opinion (so take it for what it's worth) but Intel's problem isn't packaging. Both MTL/ARL will have the best packaging tech available for client products. They're not really behind in packaging - at all.

Their issue vis a vis AMD is core design IP and their validation process takes much longer.
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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Seems like in MT, AMD will be overrun given the available power consumption budget. Because "efficiency" cores will have better perf/watt. So was AMD late to the party with regards to big.LITTLE on desktop? Since the rumors are they will go big.LITTLE with Zen 6, I get the impression they agree it's a good design for desktop too and not only mobile/laptop.
intel is dumping ht going forward. amd's design choice according to adrock thuston is that Zen will maintain 16 cores at the top end for now for zen 5 but zen 6 will include dense cores of the same type, these will have less cache but also have ht. Cores will increase with this zen 6 processor according to adrock a few hours ago.

Intel may top out at 24 or 32 cores and 24 or 32 threads. AMD may top out at 24 cores 48 threads and likely use less power and have less bugs than intel's novel approach.
 
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adroc_thurston

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Jul 2, 2023
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Just wonder what everyone's thought are with regards to how a likely Zen 5 top-of-the-line desktop AMD 8950X 16C will be able to compete against Intel Arrow Lake 8P + 32E cores?
No such thing as ARL-S 8321.
Both MTL/ARL will have the best packaging tech available for client products
36um 2.5D Si interposer is like 2020 tech.
Their issue vis a vis AMD is core design IP and their validation process takes much longer
They're just worse at making cores.
Plain and simple.
zen 6 will include dense cores of the same type
Never said that.
 

Mopetar

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Jan 31, 2011
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Why would Intel dump HT? Even if they're not going to add it for the e-cores, it's such a big chunk of performance for how little additional transistors it requires that I can't see a good reason to drop it unless it makes a big mess for moving programs between the p/e-cores or something like that.
 

Fjodor2001

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Feb 6, 2010
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That hasn't been remotely confirmed and was suggested to be a rumor based on a 3 year old rumor now.
Here are some recent sources mentioning 8P + 32E for desktop Arrow Lake: