Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

We're talking about the highest end TDP configuration. And that should easily compete/beat 4070M, thanks to IC. In essence, what Strix Point Halo needs to do to compete or beat 4070M is to achieve 6850M performance.

And what is that TDP? That's the question we don't know.
It needs to be high enough to allow >2.5GHz and we still don't know what advantage RDNA3.5 will provide.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I think people should temper their expectations regarding Strix Halo. I don't expect it to reach its full potential due to power/heat dissipation limitations.

 

[Joe NYC]

You mean if/when China is able to produce chips on latest node using only China developed tech?

The node that Chinese can deliver, they will deliver much lower cost (which is my prediction),. By doing so, preserving one aspect of Moore's law.

 

[Fjodor2001]

The node that Chinese can deliver, they will deliver much lower cost (which is my prediction),. By doing so, preserving one aspect of Moore's law.

Yeah, I think you're right. Just saw this related news:

Chip price war unfolds as Chinese foundries cut tape-out prices — Taiwan and South Korean foundries face new price pressures: Report

Price war between China, Taiwan, and South Korea foundries unfolds.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[igor_kavinski]

The only option for non-Chinese foundries is to move up the node ladder where the Chinese won't be able to touch them for a while.

 

[moinmoin]

Yeah, I think you're right. Just saw this related news:

Chip price war unfolds as Chinese foundries cut tape-out prices — Taiwan and South Korean foundries face new price pressures: Report

Price war between China, Taiwan, and South Korea foundries unfolds.

www.tomshardware.com

Eh...

China-based foundries cutting down their tape-out quotes and production prices even before they install all the tools they procured and build all the fabs they are constructing

Good luck with that, in case those aren't live on time or don't perform as advertised. Then we may suddenly find ourselves in "totally unexpected" chip shortages again.

 

[jpiniero]

Feel like China related discussions should be a different thread... but wasn't there speculation that AMD might do a Zen 5 product or two at Samsung, as a dual source just in case?

 

[igor_kavinski]

but wasn't there speculation that AMD might do a Zen 5 product or two at Samsung, as a dual source just in case?

If something happens to TSMC, it will only be a matter of time before Samsung is also impacted by geopolitics. Their only real option would be IFS, unless IBM/GloFo somehow enter the picture. Japan wouldn't be a safe place for chip fabrication either.

 

[Fjodor2001]

wasn't there speculation that AMD might do a Zen 5 product or two at Samsung, as a dual source just in case?

AMD has recently decided to remove Taiwan branding from their CPUs. Maybe in preparation for dual sourcing from elsewhere like Samsung?

AMD removes Taiwan branding from CPUs, says change wasn't made to appease China

The 'Made in Malaysia' markings will remain, though.

www.tomshardware.com

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

AMD has recently decided to remove Taiwan branding from their CPUs. Maybe in preparation for dual sourcing from elsewhere like Samsung?

AMD removes Taiwan branding from CPUs, says change wasn't made to appease China

The 'Made in Malaysia' markings will remain, though.

www.tomshardware.com

No other option than Samsung, unless they want to use IFS, but I don't believe Intel has capacity to spare.

 

[igor_kavinski]

No other option than Samsung

That could be the beginning of the end for AMD.

 

[gdansk]

That could be the beginning of the end for AMD.

Dual-sourcing from Samsung will spell the end of AMD? What are you smoking Igor?

 

[igor_kavinski]

Dual-sourcing from Samsung will spell the end of AMD?

No but if only Samsung is left for them after TSMC goes down, they'll be in BIIIGGGGG trouble! Sub-par silicon with bad yields. Lisa Su will be on all fours on the Samsung fab floor looking for good dies and throwing them left and right and screaming expletives

 

[Thibsie]

No but if only Samsung is left for them after TSMC goes down, they'll be in BIIIGGGGG trouble! Sub-par silicon with bad yields. Lisa Su will be on all fours on the Samsung fab floor looking for good dies and throwing them left and right and screaming expletives

Nah, AMD buys Samsung foundry business, make it perform and voilà, back to an AMD with fabs

 

[adroc_thurston]

And what is that TDP?

120W.

Maybe in preparation for dual sourcing from elsewhere like Samsung?

No.

 

[moinmoin]

wasn't there speculation that AMD might do a Zen 5 product or two at Samsung, as a dual source just in case?

Specifically Sonoma Valley (said to be Zen 5c based Mendocino successor) is rumoured to be at Samsung.

 

[igor_kavinski]

No.

What's AMD's post-TSMC-badaboom-dust plan?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Specifically Sonoma Valley (said to be Zen 5c based Mendocino successor) is rumoured to be at Samsung.

Yeah it's SF4X.

What's AMD's post-TSMC-badaboom-dust plan?

Intel (unironically).

 

[igor_kavinski]

Intel (unironically).

You make sense! YAY!

 

[adroc_thurston]

You make sense! YAY!

It would only work if the US Chamber of Commerce or w/ever forces Intel to separate the fabs for national security reasons which obviously won't happen unless TSM stuff gets bombed.

 

[gdansk]

No but if only Samsung is left for them after TSMC goes down, they'll be in BIIIGGGGG trouble! Sub-par silicon with bad yields. Lisa Su will be on all fours on the Samsung fab floor looking for good dies and throwing them left and right and screaming expletives

What do you mean after? If TSMC goes down then most likely shipping from Korea won't look so hot either.
Dual sourcing isn't about war planning it's about market planning. If it is a real product at Samsung then AMD expects a lot of demand. Or that the design is good enough they think it can be competitive even made on Samsung's 4/3. Or that they got a good deal like Nvidia did for Samsung's 8.

TSMC in Phoenix and expansion of Samsung in Austin - now that might be war planning but has little to do with Zen or AMD.

 

[FlameTail]

Yeah it's SF4X.

Oooooooooòh

 

[yuri69]

That performance/efficiency jump from Zen 2 to Zen 5c would be pretty brutal.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Seems predictions for Zen5 launch is July or later in Q3, based on surfacing leaks about that it has entered mass production. Apparently time from such info until launch is usually 6+ months.

Zen 5 processors being in mass production doesn’t mean they are just around the corner. If we look back at Ryzen 7000 CPUs, rumors about mass production were floating around in March 2022, before the desktop chips were released in September – so the first rumblings came some six months ahead of time.

That means Zen 5 (Ryzen 8000 or 9000) CPUs might just turn up in July, or just after, and this aligns with what we’ve heard more recently on the rumor mill about a likely Q3 launch timeframe (July to September). Historically, it’s more likely to be later in the quarter, than midyear (July), and the other factor to bear in mind is that AMD isn’t exactly going to feel rushed by Intel’s (theoretical) progress with its next-gen processors.

AMD’s next-gen Zen 5 CPUs could already be in production – so get ready for a launch in around six months

Desperate for Zen 5 processors? AMD is already making them, apparently

www.techradar.com

 

[adroc_thurston]

Seems predictions for Zen5 launch is July or later in Q3

It's April.
Strix is Computex.