Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[biostud]

And how exactly will that AI make the workers more productive?

At our school the students use AI to answer their assignments, and the teachers use AI to create the assignments and grade the assignments. So while the AI is doing all the work, the resources of the students and teachers can be used elsewhere.

 

[StefanR5R]

(Zen 5 desktop-class SKUs without NPU)

And how exactly will that AI make the workers more productive?

See this:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/wor...st-users-teach-us-about-generative-ai-at-work

Off topic — I have been required to use Microsoft products at work for many years now. Based on this experience, a Microsoft blog wouldn't be the first place which came to my mind if I looked for research on productivity.
Will an animated wallpaper with parallax effect make me more productive? If a full-text search through e-mails is littered with false positives and false negatives today, and relevant places of the corporate mail store aren't indexed in the first place, how will natural language queries on top of it make me more productive tomorrow?

On topic — Which of the AI assistant stuff is executed solely locally on an NPU?

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

See this:

What Can Copilot’s Earliest Users Teach Us About AI at Work?

A first look at the impact on productivity, creativity, and time.

www.microsoft.com

View attachment 90069

Sorry, but I see a Microsoft survey for their own product. I smell bias in It.
BTW, 30% said they are not more productive with It, that's interesting. Now, I don't know If 70% are bad workers who need AI to help them do their own job or the 30% are the bad ones and can't use this AI.

In that survey, they ask if you would rather a free weekly launch or have copilot, 77% choose Copilot. WTF, who would choose AI over free food.
Or 30% said that access to this copilot would influence their choice of employer.
The missed 35min meeting summary result is 11min for Copilot and 42min without It?
These are suspicious results to me and I can't take this survey seriously.

 

[biostud]

(Zen 5 desktop-class SKUs without NPU)


Off topic — I have been required to use Microsoft products at work for many years now. Based on this experience, a Microsoft blog wouldn't be the first place which came to my mind if I looked for research on productivity.
Will an animated wallpaper with parallax effect make me more productive? If a full-text search through e-mails is littered with false positives and false negatives today, and relevant places of the corporate mail store aren't indexed in the first place, how will natural language queries on top of it make me more productive tomorrow?

On topic — Which of the AI assistant stuff is executed solely locally on an NPU?

I've been using Topaz photo and video AI, and it runs locally, using both GPU and CPU.

 

[eek2121]

Nah... that would preclude 99% of laptops and desktops to be upgraded to W12 on release day. What a flop.

It is exactly what @adroc_thurston said (unless things change). Windows 12 will be broadly available, but to get the “best” experience (i.e. fancy Microsoft badge) you will need an NPU. PCs without NPUs and no GPU equivalent (in terms of performance) will not be able to use advanced AI features.

If your PC can officially run Windows 11 today and the hardware isn’t terribly old it should be able to run Windows 12.

 

[Ajay]

Similar as with TPM for Win11.

Yeah, MS happily left alot of users behind with that. So, they are still all set to 2025. Kind of wish I didn't move over to Win11, but some family members wanted it - so the family tech support technician upgraded . It's not terrible, and I actually like the UI changes. Hopefully 12 will be better.

 

[StefanR5R]

In that survey, they ask if you would rather a free weekly launch or have copilot, 77% choose Copilot. WTF, who would choose AI over free food.

As it happened, 77% of the participants have read their Robert A. Heinlein and knew that the "free lunch, or Copilot" item was a trick question.

These are suspicious results to me

Perhaps the authors of this report relied on generative AI, a little.

Which of the AI assistant stuff is executed solely locally on an NPU?

I've been using Topaz photo and video AI, and it runs locally, using both GPU and CPU.

I meant, which of the Windows 12 features (APIs, UI elements…)

 

[biostud]

As it happened, 77% of the participants have read their Robert A. Heinlein and knew that the "free lunch, or Copilot" item was a trick question.

Perhaps the authors of this report relied on generative AI, a little.



I meant, which of the Windows 12 features (APIs, UI elements…)

Probably trying to incorporate co-pilot as the modern and more powerful clippy.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Probably trying to incorporate co-pilot as the modern and more powerful clippy.

Power users demand Microsoft Bob.

 

[biostud]

Power users demand Microsoft Bob.

You only get that in Enterprise version

 

[Fjodor2001]

(Zen 5 desktop-class SKUs without NPU)


Off topic — I have been required to use Microsoft products at work for many years now. Based on this experience, a Microsoft blog wouldn't be the first place which came to my mind if I looked for research on productivity.
Will an animated wallpaper with parallax effect make me more productive? If a full-text search through e-mails is littered with false positives and false negatives today, and relevant places of the corporate mail store aren't indexed in the first place, how will natural language queries on top of it make me more productive tomorrow?

On topic — Which of the AI assistant stuff is executed solely locally on an NPU?

Fair enough. Point taken about Microsoft being partial.

But I can tell you that a lot of companies in general are expecting similar results that Microsoft got w.r.t. productivity increase for office workers, engineers, etc in general resulting from Generative AI. Although perhaps a bit lower percentages.

They are cutting headcount budgets by 20-30% for the years ahead and expecting similar productivity despite that. They are expecting to save a lot of money by having fewer employees doing the same work as before, thereby paying less salaries.

The stock market agrees. Or why do you think nVidia, Microsoft, etc stock have skyrocketed the last ~1 year since the AI productivity increase boom started? All involved in the AI HW/SW tech that is needed to realize all of this.

 

[adroc_thurston]

since the AI productivity increase boom started

No such thing.
It's all dotcom-style hype.

 

[Fjodor2001]

No such thing.
It's all dotcom-style hype.

Exactly, for now.

With regards to AI productivity increases, we're at a similar peak as we had with the Internet dotcom-style hype around year 2000. Some claimed the Internet would skyrocket profitability, and others said it was just a hype that would die. After that followed a crash, and then followed by a huge actual productivity and profit increase.

See the Gartner hype curve for 2023 below. Generative AI is at the peak. Next will be "Trough of Disillusionment", like you're hinting at. But after that will follow "Plateau of Productivity".

So short-term, you might consider Generative AI, NPU, AI productivity increases , etc to not deliver as expected. But give it a few years until we reach "Plateau of Productivity" and things will look different.

 

[adroc_thurston]

and then followed by a huge actual productivity and profit increase.

The internet boom in itself didn't happen, it was all more of an extension of the smartphone proliferation.

So short-term, you might consider Generative AI, NPU, AI productivity increases

no such thing as "productivity increase".

 

[Fjodor2001]

The internet boom in itself didn't happen, it was all more of an extension of the smartphone proliferation.

So you do not think the Internet and the web has increased productivity in the last ~20 years? Oooookey....

no such thing as "productivity increase".

No productivity increase resulting from the Internet & web during the last ~20 years? Or no productivity increase from Generative AI? If the latter, you know this how -- several years in advance of reaching "Plateau of Productivity"?

 

[adroc_thurston]

So you do not think the Internet and the web has increased productivity in the last ~20 years?

Not to any significant degree.
They did dig out a few new business niches like e-commerce and online advertisement but that's about it.

No productivity increase resulting from the Internet & web during the last ~20 years?

no.
"productivity increase" is a ZIRPoid term designed to justify sinking gigatons of money into ever more expensive ventures hoping that it all somehow manifests an actual revenue stream or a viable business model.

 

[RnR_au]

It is exactly what @adroc_thurston said (unless things change). Windows 12 will be broadly available, but to get the “best” experience (i.e. fancy Microsoft badge) you will need an NPU. PCs without NPUs and no GPU equivalent (in terms of performance) will not be able to use advanced AI features.

If your PC can officially run Windows 11 today and the hardware isn’t terribly old it should be able to run Windows 12.

The post I responded said it would be 'mandatory'.

 

[DaaQ]

No way. Win12 would be DOA for large segments of the PC market. Hopefully the 'every other windows release is good' theory applies to Win12, as Win11 has had more problems than Win10.

I have a 3200g laptop, started with 10, lazily did the upgrade, haven't had any issues with 11 being problematic. It has felt easier than 10, and less convoluted than 7.

Please note, I am not an office or coding/programing worker. Just Hardware enthusiast that wishes I had taken more time into software enthusiasm.

Similar as with TPM for Win11.

TPM is not an issue, see sig rig, running Win11 Pro on this machine with minimal effort to make the USB stick iso to install to said hardware. Have had no issues. To the point I purchased a W11 Pro key from MS.

I also installed W11 Home on a i5 lynnfield what is it i5 750?? on a EVGA P55-sli motherboard, also with no issues. It was easier recovering his old win 7 boot drive this way than trying to find a way to repair the win7 bootloader.
It activated fine off of the W7 product key. (I tried using W7 disk first. Yes actual physical optical disk)

Yeah, MS happily left alot of users behind with that. So, they are still all set to 2025. Kind of wish I didn't move over to Win11, but some family members wanted it - so the family tech support technician upgraded . It's not terrible, and I actually like the UI changes. Hopefully 12 will be better.

Maybe out of context and I apologize if so, but this kind of contradicts the first quote yes?

 

[JustViewing]

no such thing as "productivity increase".

Okay, maybe in your line of work. Just don't assume it is same for others. If you mean, if someone works for 8Hrs they will continue to work for 8 Hrs even after usage of AI assistant, that is probably true. But they will be able to do more work within the same time period.

 

[adroc_thurston]

But they will be able to do more work within the same time period.

Or they will spend more time in pointless meetings.
Again, "productivity increase" (for b2b SaaS snake oil sellers it's usually "operational efficiency increase") is a ZIRPoid goalpost to try and goad more money out of inverstors until you figure out a relevant business model.
Or you die.

In a way, dotcom bubble never left!

 

[JustViewing]

Or they will spend more time in pointless meetings.
Again, "productivity increase" (for b2b SaaS snake oil sellers it's usually "operational efficiency increase") is a ZIRPoid goalpost to try and goad more money out of inverstors until you figure out a relevant business model.
Or you die.

In a way, dotcom bubble never left!

"pointless meetings" can come with refreshments . Besides you are talking about managers, typical employee doesn't go to meetings with investors. If an AI can help your work, why not use it? Have you ever used a calculator? Does a calculator increases your productivity? Not that you can't do calculations with pen and a paper, just that it much easier to use a calculator. Same with AI.

 

[adroc_thurston]

typical employee doesn't go to meetings with investors

They just go to meetings.

If an AI can help your work, why not use it?

many reasons, the primary one being

Have you ever used a calculator? Does a calculator increases your productivity?

calculators are computationally cheap, modern bloated ML models are anything but.

Not that you can't do calculations with pen and a paper, just that it much easier to use a calculator

Calculators are cheap, machine learnings models aren't down to the very concept.

 

[Fjodor2001]

calculators are computationally cheap, modern bloated ML models are anything but.

E.g. Github Copilot for Business is $19 per month per user.

 

[Fjodor2001]

TPM is not an issue, see sig rig, running Win11 Pro on this machine with minimal effort to make the USB stick iso to install to said hardware. Have had no issues. To the point I purchased a W11 Pro key from MS.

Sure, it’s possible. But will the Average Joe and the masses do it, when Win10 on their PC or laptop tells them it’s not possible to upgrade to Win11 due to missing TPM?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Github Copilot for Business is $19 per month per user.

That's cashburn-fueled negative margin product trying to amass critical install base before hiking the pricing aka the usual SaaS stuff.