Your predictions on how the first debate will shape the race

[mshan]

"Obama did not appear to suffer any damage. Fifty-four percent said the debate did not change their opinion of the president, while 16 percent said their opinion had improved and 18 percent said they viewed him more negatively.

Obama's favorability ratings remained unchanged, as 56 percent said they viewed him favorably and 44 percent said they viewed him unfavorably. His standing improved among independents by 8 percentage points.

Romney appears to have made his greatest strides among his fellow Republicans - a development that could help his fundraising and get-out-the vote efforts in the final weeks of the campaign.

Forty-six percent of Republicans said their opinion of Romney was "very favorable" after the debate, a gain of 10 percentage points."

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-gains-ground-obama-strong-debate-185645909--business.html

Quick Take: Romney is still trying to lock down his base, and Obama is trying to expand the playing field.


Obama is always playing the long game, Romney chucking another last ditch Hail Mary that in retrospect, probably ends up hurting him more than helping him (http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/15/ryan-is-a-game-changer-but-not-for-romney/)

 

[Fern]

Your predictions on how the first debate will shape the race

IDK, and don't feel confident in my ability to predict. I do think it will tighten the race somewhat. I heard the talking heads on TV say a point or two.

Fern

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Romney did well for himself last night. He should pickup a few percentage points in the polls from this. The thing we have to note here is that he hasn't necessarily changed the dynamics of this race, but I think he did well enough for people to consider giving him another look. He has to continue these performances though if he's going to gather the momentum needed to create a real swing in this election.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Typically debates don't move the overall polling numbers by much, but I think this was an unusually one-sided debate. Not the worst I have ever seen, but not good for the President. I would expect the debate will hurt the President by a couple of percentage points among independents, and it is certainly a momentum changer. If the jobs report tomorrow is shitty again, this will be a big week for Romney.

One interesting potential outcome is that the President will lose a point or two but cling to a lead in even the Rasmussen polling. Should that occur, it will suggest that the public at large is simply unwilling to elect Romney. It is also possible, of course, that the public will shift toward him in sufficient numbers to take the President out of the lead.

The 538 Blog's opinion on this is interesting. They had used the analogy that going into the debates, Romney was effectively down by a touchdown at the start of the fourth quarter. After the debate, under the same terms, they opined that the debate represented a field goal by Romney. While simplistic, I think this analogy is probably about right.

 

[conehead433]

I watched for a few minutes then switched to Toy Hunter, a much more interesting show. I don't think anyone knows where Romney stands on a single issue other than lowering his own taxes.

 

[Doppel]

No big diff. Most people are too partisan to ever change.

 

[randomrogue]

First Reuters poll shows that Obama remains unchanged and Romney gained a point or so.

 

[chowderhead]

Dead cat bounce for Mitt. Obama played defense. Obama should release an ad with Mitt debating Mitt.

 

[umbrella39]

IMHO it will have zero effect on the outcome. Romney may have swayed a few but the only one people will remember is the last debate. Romney will be a bounce... and I say bounce because it will bounce right back in a few days.

 

[mshan]

Well, Romney better hope that his first debate "victory" keeps his billionaire donors funding his campaign, because the Obama campaign raised $181 million in September:

edit: looks like that number is for Obama campaign and DNC combined:

"(Reuters) - President Barack Obama's campaign and its Democratic allies raised a record $181 million in September for the president's re-election effort, adding to a fundraising haul that could prove crucial in the final stretch of the White House race.

Obama's campaign said via Twitter that 1,825,813 people donated to the campaign last month. Of that, 567,000 were new donors.

A vast majority of the donations - 98 percent - were $250 or less. The average contribution was $53.

Obama's campaign is proud of its base of low-dollar donors, believing that gives the president an advantage, especially at the end of the election cycle when supporters can keep giving even if they have donated before.

Since the campaign officially kicked off in April 2011, 3.9 million people have donated, it said.

The big number is another piece of good news for Obama after a jobs report on Friday showed unemployment had dipped to 7.8 percent.

The campaign hoped that jobs report and its fundraising success would shift attention from the president's lackluster debate performance Wednesday against Republican candidate Mitt Romney, whose aggressive showing gave his own campaign a boost."

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; Editing by Vicki Allen)



http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/06/us-usa-campaign-obama-idUSBRE89509B20121006

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...c1aa20-0fc2-11e2-a180-7d0c112201c9_story.html