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Your predictions on how the first debate will shape the race

Ryan

Lifer
Oct 31, 2000
27,518
1
81
With the conclusion of the first debate, the unanimous conclusion is that Romney had the upper hand while Obama seemed to drop the ball. Obviously it's too early to tell when it comes to polling - we will have to wait at least a week for a full picture of the outcome: What effect do you think this will ultimately have on the race to the White House?

Gallup has the president's approval rating sitting at 54% today, and disapproval at 42%. In the head to head election matchup, Obama is at 49%, while Romney is at 45%. FiveThirtyEight has Obama's chances of winning at 86.1% right now. Note that these were all computed before the debate.

How much of a drop (if any) do you predict?
 

quest55720

Golden Member
Nov 3, 2004
1,339
0
0
I don't think it will matter it all in the 1 place it really matters Ohio. Romney is down so far there outside something like the stock market/ecomomy crash of 2008 this race is over. It is funny watching the media trying to spin this as some huge win for Romney and pray the race gets close. Sure Romney won but it is to little to late. I am sure Romney will gain a point or 2 in the nation polls but that is meaningless.
 

Mxylplyx

Diamond Member
Mar 21, 2007
4,197
100
106
History shows that barring any major gaffes in the debates, they rarely move the needle much. Obama may not have done himself any favors last night, but he also didn't give his critics much to work with, which is a pretty safe move given his lead in the polls.

I'm an Alabama football fan, I can appreciate running out the clock when you have a sizable lead ;)
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
0
A message that resounded and won the presidency before

"It is the economy, stupid"

If the next months numbers do not show an strong improvement; Obama has made statements that he can not back up.
Romney can bash Obama over the head with those issues.

Foreign policy is not going to matter; it is the safety of the wallet.
Fuel prices at twice the price of when Obama took office is not going to help either.
 

quest55720

Golden Member
Nov 3, 2004
1,339
0
0
A message that resounded and won the presidency before

"It is the economy, stupid"

If the next months numbers do not show an strong improvement; Obama has made statements that he can not back up.
Romney can bash Obama over the head with those issues.

Foreign policy is not going to matter; it is the safety of the wallet.
Fuel prices at twice the price of when Obama took office is not going to help either.
The problem is time ran out. Romney and crew wasted the whole summer when they should of been talking the economy. Instead they were on the defensive with his tax returns and Bane. Then the last month was wasted with things like the 47% tape other issues. Obama and cew controlled the summer and are now in a prevent defense being up by 3TDs in the 4th quarter.

That and Romney is no Bill Clinton who could take the its the economy stupid message and relate it to the average person.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,328
4,022
126
I have no idea. A lot, I think, depends on whether folk think Romney is decisive on cutting the budget by cutting NPR funding or whether they see that as the cold inhumane bastard Mitt Romney really is, as in dog on roof of car, 47% worthless, etc.

What Romney tried to show was that being a sociopath is what it takes to be President, that to protect the one percent you would assassinate Big Bird and laugh about it He tried to turn his pathology into a strength by making a joke of it. How can we tell how many will see the sickness implied. How many will see what a cold unfeeling monster this piece of shit really is. NPR's children's shows try to build children's self respect and get them into learning. Any children's programs dependent of ad dollars will only be about violence, competition and meanness because down is easy and up in hard. The ad dollar says that children are commodities to be exploited.

It's the same with the debate, hate cunning lies and viciousness won the day for Romney. Everything that is worthless is worshiped in America by conservatives.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
28,135
10,713
136
I have no idea. A lot, I think, depends on whether folk think Romney is decisive on cutting the budget by cutting NPR funding or whether they see that as the cold inhumane bastard Mitt Romney really is, as in dog on roof of car, 47% worthless, etc.

What Romney tried to show was that being a sociopath is what it takes to be President, that to protect the one percent you would assassinate Big Bird and laugh about it He tried to turn his pathology into a strength by making a joke of it. How can we tell how many will see the sickness implied. How many will see what a cold unfeeling monster this piece of shit really is. NPR's children's shows try to build children's self respect and get them into learning. Any children's programs dependent of ad dollars will only be about violence, competition and meanness because down is easy and up in hard. The ad dollar says that children are commodities to be exploited.

It's the same with the debate, hate cunning lies and viciousness won the day for Romney. Everything that is worthless is worshiped in America by conservatives.
It's really funny that we shouldn't have China financing Big Bird, but China financing our bloated military is aces in his book.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
17,438
5,019
136
I don't think it will have that much of an effect. People's minds are pretty made up by now. The quote unquote independents that don't know who they're going to vote for now, won't know who to vote for until the get into the voting booth and flip a coin apparently. How anyone can truly not know who they are going to vote for at this point baffles me.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
National numbers might tighten a bit, simply because some of Romney's supporters who were personally offended by his 47% remark will drift back to him over time.

Swing state numbers, hard to tell. People who were not previously Romney supporters and broke to Obama recently, it is hard to tell if they are going to change their mind again.

To me, Obama was never there to debate Romney (who was nothing more than an annoying knat that kept trying to bite him, and which he had to swat away without seeming too dismissive), but talk to specific blocks of voters who were watching on tv, e. g. seniors who were scared by voucherize Medicare Ryan pick.

Obama seemed to have small, easily digestible talking points that seemed to be targeted for specific audiences, if they were trying to listen to what he said (e. g. specifically listening only from perspective of what are you going to do for me, not inside the beltway or inside baseball wonky details. My simple word cloud for Obama was economy, education, investment. For Romney, only thing that sticks is $716 billion and small business).

Goes back to politico analysis which i think was written before 47% comment:
"Where the two camps differ &#8212; and differ starkly &#8212; is on their theories of the case for navigating the final nine weeks. Romney, armed with more dismal jobs numbers, will run a one-size-fits-all campaign, wrapped around the message that the economy is bad, Obama is to blame and that change of leadership is absolutely essential. The Republican plan rests heavily on Romney&#8217;s capacity to bury Obama with negative ads &#8212; and reap the benefits of his billionaire backers hitting the president even harder, and more relentlessly. This, more than anything else, alarms the high command in Chicago.

A Democratic official said the other big worry for the Obama campaign is that when you dig into the small slice of undecided voters (probably only 6 percent to 8 percent of the electorate, according to the campaigns), the demographics are not favorable to Obama: mostly white, many with some college education, economically stressed, largely middle-aged.

&#8220;Many of them voted for Obama in 2008 and felt good about that vote, and still think Obama&#8217;s a good person who really tried hard, but the economy sucks for them,&#8221; said the Democratic official, who has access to reams of internal polls and focus groups.

Despite that, Obama officials have maintained for several weeks that there are too few undecided voters for Romney to get the bounce he needs from the debates.

&#8220;Romney is not going to win undecided voters 4-to-1,&#8221; a senior administration official told reporters on Air Force One on Friday. &#8220;If you are losing in Ohio by 4 or 5 points and trailing in Colorado by 2 points, if you are trailing in Nevada by 2 or 3 points, you are not going to win in those states.

&#8220;There is a small number of undecided voters so you are not going to see tremendous movement out of these conventions, even out of the debates.

&#8230; [W]e have a small but important lead in battleground states that is a huge problem for the Romney camp. &#8230; Ohio needs to be tied, Florida needs to be tied at least.&#8221;


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html
Those seniors who broke for Obama recently and are perhaps responsible for large leads he opened up nationally, how the breakdown between Romney and Obama changes going forward, that is what I am interested in.

Could care less about chattering class saying how he missed this opportunity or didn't pin Romney on this or that.

Obama campaign has been micro-targeting messages in specific swing states, so interesting to see if perhaps that is what he was doing yesterday (i. e. playing the long game in the electoral college, not the instant who won this most recent skirmish).

Did it energize Romney's demoralized base? Absolutely?

But might have also smacked any complacency out of Obama's base, too.
 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,328
4,022
126
I don't think it will have that much of an effect. People's minds are pretty made up by now. The quote unquote independents that don't know who they're going to vote for now, won't know who to vote for until the get into the voting booth and flip a coin apparently. How anyone can truly not know who they are going to vote for at this point baffles me.
That is not as surprising as those who are politically aware voting conservative when conservative has slipped over to equal insanity If you can't tell that conservatism is a delusion created by the 1% to manipulate and control power you're more out to lunch than folk who are so caught up trying to survive they don't have time for politics.
 

Agent11

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2006
3,535
1
0
Romney got away with murder last night, I don't think he will do as well in the upcomming debates.
 

randomrogue

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2011
5,462
0
0
I don't think it will matter. With today's fact checking almost instantaneous it is pretty easy to look at a debate after the fact and see what's really going on. Clearly they were both blowing smoke up our asses. Romney might have looked better, and yes this is a big deal (see the Al Gore debacle), but I don't think he's going to sway any undecided voters with what was clearly a "I'll say anything to become president" presentation.

It's also worth noting that the whole debate was terribly moderated. They didn't answer questions and just did whatever they wanted to do.
 

randomrogue

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2011
5,462
0
0
No kidding, but I'm not making excuses for Obama's er a "performance".
I watched it online and on a somewhat questionable internet connection. It made Obama look even worse. He didn't look Presidential. He looked like he had been up all night and needed a nap.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
17,438
5,019
136
I watched it online and on a somewhat questionable internet connection. It made Obama look even worse. He didn't look Presidential. He looked like he had been up all night and needed a nap.
Seriously, he looked terrible.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,134
37
91
Romney lied a lot in the debate. He told the president "I don't know what you're talking about" when it came to his tax cut proposals. A terrible lie from a terrible man.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
44,451
4,265
136
I think, deep inside, Obama suffers from the whole "black/half black man trying to get by in a white world" thing in that he feels, without necessarily even being conscious of it, that he can't confidently express true outrage or be truly confrontational.

He's always has to retreat into facts and figures to make his points, and to make his way.

While Romney was the son of a highly placed business man and politician. He was "to the manor born." He was the guy who could confidently lead his fellow students in forcibly cutting the hair of that "gay looking guy."

Romney started out on third base and thinks he hit a triple. He can try to steal home, and even if he's out, well, Daddy owns the team!

He's had a career snowing folks as a vulture-like corporate raider. He has no problem bullshitting, and it shows. He's in his element blowing smoke up your ass, and looking good doing it!

Obama has never had these advantages.

So, in a no-fact-check, essentially unmoderated dog and pony show, Romney was in his element, and Obama wasn't.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,134
37
91
I think, deep inside, Obama suffers from the whole "black/half black man trying to get by in a white world" thing in that he feels, without necessarily even being conscious of it, that he can't confidently express true outrage or be truly confrontational.

He's always has to retreat into facts and figures to make his points, and to make his way.

While Romney was the son of a highly placed business man and politician. He was "to the manor born." He was the guy who could confidently lead his fellow students in forcibly cutting the hair of that "gay looking guy."

Romney started out on third base and thinks he hit a triple. He can try to steal home, and even if he's out, well, Daddy owns the team!

He's had a career snowing folks as a vulture-like corporate raider. He has no problem bullshitting, and it shows. He's in his element blowing smoke up your ass, and looking good doing it!

Obama has never had these advantages.

So, in a no-fact-check, essentially unmoderated dog and pony show, Romney was in his element, and Obama wasn't.
This is true. But there has to be a way for the president to counter this. Outright lies need to be called out.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
17,438
5,019
136
This is true. But there has to be a way for the president to counter this. Outright lies need to be called out.
That's what was so frustrating about the non-moderating. Essentially, Romney would just be filibustering his lies for his whole period. What's Obama supposed to do, look unpresidential and call him out, then not get what he wanted to say out. The format sucked!
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Obama's reelection campaign has raised more than $150 million dollars in September. Obama campaign officials declined to address specific numbers, but a campaign source tells POLITICO that President Obama has blown past his previous fundraising record of $114 million for the 2012 cycle.

The campaign set that record in August 2012, raising $114 million to Mitt Romney's $111 million. It matches Obama's record-shattering September 2008 fundraising haul, where he pulled in $150 million for his first bid for the presidency.

Mitt Romney's campaign has not yet released their September fundraising numbers.

The report comes on the heels of a bad news cycle for Obama &#8212; with his debate performance in Wednesday Denver event receiving mostly bad reviews.


http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/10/report-obama-shatters-fundraising-record-137558.html
Guess Sheldon Adelson is going to have to bail Romney out again with a $100 "donation" (if estate tax is completely repealed under Romney, he probably get it all back and more, not even counting making Bush tax cuts permanent, and adding another $5 trillion tax cut for rich on top of it) (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/24/sheldon-adelson-donations_n_1910094.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012)


And Andrea Mitchell (married to former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan) and WSJ calling out Romney from yesterday's debate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV5m1NxffEs&feature=player_embedded



:rolleyes:
 
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Todd33

Diamond Member
Oct 16, 2003
7,842
2
81
Obama was playing it safe, prevent defense. He needs to call Mitt on his lies and BS next time, but once the debate moves to a town hall or is about foreign policy Mitt is going to need more than talking over everyone and stupid zingers.

Last night is was the President vs some guy who has been running for a decade. One has been making the hard decision, the other was just saying he can do everything with no details or tough calls.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Honestly, I think Obama was trying to appeal to those few remaining truly undecideds and persuadables out there (I am specificially interested in how the breakdown of seniors, perhaps even more specifically white married seniors in a swing state like Florida who like their Medicare and Social Security exactly as is, and recently broke towards Obama because of voucherize Medicare Ryan. It should be a natural Republican constituency, but I think had become a 50 / 50 draw between Obama and Romney).

Romney may have won the skirmish, but all that ultimately matters is who wins the war...
 
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Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
2
0
Romney lied a lot in the debate. He told the president "I don't know what you're talking about" when it came to his tax cut proposals. A terrible lie from a terrible man.
This is true. But there has to be a way for the president to counter this. Outright lies need to be called out.
Obama will do well to stay away from talking about lies all he can.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
30,093
3,628
126
So, in a no-fact-check, essentially unmoderated dog and pony show, Romney was in his element, and Obama wasn't.
I don't think Romney behaved so well during the Republican debates, was I just not listening to him then? He appeared at his best last night. I was surprised.
 

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