Xbox Two and PS5 Predictions

Jun 19, 2012
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Here are my predictions for what the next generation of consoles. I am not sure what Nintendo will do, but most likely they will try to ride off of the switch's success and improve upon it.

A much higher starting price tag: 500-650 dollars minimum.

A 2022 - 2024 timeframe for release. Whatever the next gen is will need to be much better than the Pro and One X in performance, waiting until true 4k gaming can be offered cheaper is the the right move and will provide a more worthwhile upgrade path as the One X and Pro already provide a good gaming experience. 1080 ti level graphics could be cheaper by then, offering true 4k and some 5k and 8k gaming.

Next gen storage. Blu Ray will be replaced by some next gen optical format, to increase capacity as well as make piracy more difficult. I don't see proprietary formats being used, but it takes some time for new formats to make their way into computer optical drives. My bet is on something similar HVD (holographic versatile disc). 4k+ games, and 8k movies and vr movies and games will require much more storage. Some sorta successor to the hard drive might be used for more storage capacity. I do believe physical media and local storage will continue for consoles and movies to a lesser degree, due to bandwidth limitations and the latency of streaming a 4k aaa game. This next gen optical disc will have faster read speeds to bring back the convience of putting in a disc and playing.

Cpu speeds will finally catch up to low end desktops to enable more complicated experiences like maps and AI. Expect zen 1 3-4ghz cpu speeds. 4k gaming would probably reduce the need for cpu improvements.

Vr and next gen input devices. VR will be more practical by then and full body vr could be possible. Devices like tablets with pen input could be used for strategy games. Usb 3.1 and bluetooth improvements could reduce input latency. Further improvements in motion controls and revival of the light gun could also happen.
 

nurturedhate

Golden Member
Aug 27, 2011
1,742
673
136
Here are my predictions for what the next generation of consoles. I am not sure what Nintendo will do, but most likely they will try to ride off of the switch's success and improve upon it.

A much higher starting price tag: 500-650 dollars minimum.

A 2022 - 2024 timeframe for release. Whatever the next gen is will need to be much better than the Pro and One X in performance, waiting until true 4k gaming can be offered cheaper is the the right move and will provide a more worthwhile upgrade path as the One X and Pro already provide a good gaming experience. 1080 ti level graphics could be cheaper by then, offering true 4k and some 5k and 8k gaming.

Next gen storage. Blu Ray will be replaced by some next gen optical format, to increase capacity as well as make piracy more difficult. I don't see proprietary formats being used, but it takes some time for new formats to make their way into computer optical drives. My bet is on something similar HVD (holographic versatile disc). 4k+ games, and 8k movies and vr movies and games will require much more storage. Some sorta successor to the hard drive might be used for more storage capacity. I do believe physical media and local storage will continue for consoles and movies to a lesser degree, due to bandwidth limitations and the latency of streaming a 4k aaa game. This next gen optical disc will have faster read speeds to bring back the convience of putting in a disc and playing.

Cpu speeds will finally catch up to low end desktops to enable more complicated experiences like maps and AI. Expect zen 1 3-4ghz cpu speeds. 4k gaming would probably reduce the need for cpu improvements.

Vr and next gen input devices. VR will be more practical by then and full body vr could be possible. Devices like tablets with pen input could be used for strategy games. Usb 3.1 and bluetooth improvements could reduce input latency. Further improvements in motion controls and revival of the light gun could also happen.

We aren't looking at previous console cycle time frames any longer. Think more along the lines of ps4 -> pro time frame. Rumor mill and supposed leaked emails show Microsoft releasing the next xbox in 2020 and Sony releasing in 2019 around xmas. x86 affords them both complete backwards compatibility. We'll probably see a similar setup to what we have currently where there are two active models on the market. They will drop the original ps4 and the xbox one s and the X/pro will be the new base models.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
27,052
357
126
We aren't looking at previous console cycle time frames any longer. Think more along the lines of ps4 -> pro time frame. Rumor mill and supposed leaked emails show Microsoft releasing the next xbox in 2020 and Sony releasing in 2019 around xmas. x86 affords them both complete backwards compatibility. We'll probably see a similar setup to what we have currently where there are two active models on the market. They will drop the original ps4 and the xbox one s and the X/pro will be the new base models.

Yep so all the games will be the same and play on everything except there will be enhanced editions for the new hardware. This is both good and bad. Good that you aren't forced to buy all new stuff and can still enjoy new titles, bad if you do buy the new hardware when many games have patched in support for it with varying issues.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
6,879
5,818
136
A much higher starting price tag: 500-650 dollars minimum.

I think that would be suicide. No one wanted to pay $500 for the XBox One despite it having a better launch lineup than the PS4.

A 2022 - 2024 timeframe for release. Whatever the next gen is will need to be much better than the Pro and One X in performance, waiting until true 4k gaming can be offered cheaper is the the right move and will provide a more worthwhile upgrade path as the One X and Pro already provide a good gaming experience. 1080 ti level graphics could be cheaper by then, offering true 4k and some 5k and 8k gaming.

It sounds like XBox is coming in 2020 with two versions: one a cheap streaming box and the second a standard console. I imagine it will be priced really aggressively for Microsoft to try to win the market share back that it lost with XBox One. They really screwed up trying to target casuals with motion controls after those casuals had moved to mobile gaming and making the XBox One as an HTPC was a disaster too. I think they'll try to target hardcore gamers like they did in the first half of the life of the XBox 360 when they had so much success. I think one way they'll do this is to target 60 fps with Ryzen cpus.

Microsoft sounds desperate to beat Sony to market and PS5 before 2021 sounds doubtful since they're claiming The Last of Us Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, and Death Stranding will be PS4 games. Though I think Death Stranding is a complete lie, no way that's getting released before PS5. But if the other two were 2019 games, Sony would have said so at E3. 2022-24 for next gen sounds way too late when TSMC is already in mass production of 7nm chips.

True 4k is a waste of processing power IMO, I think you're going to continue seeing dynamic resolutions implemented since it gives added value to every subsequent console released. Every time there is a gpu node shrink they can do Pro consoles that will automatically give resolution bumps in most AAA games thanks to them being designed with dynamic resolutions in mind.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,236
5,017
136
Microsoft sounds desperate to beat Sony to market and PS5 before 2021 sounds doubtful since they're claiming The Last of Us Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, and Death Stranding will be PS4 games. Though I think Death Stranding is a complete lie, no way that's getting released before PS5. But if the other two were 2019 games, Sony would have said so at E3. 2022-24 for next gen sounds way too late when TSMC is already in mass production of 7nm chips.

Eh, if they are holiday 2019/H1 2020 games, I can see that not getting mentioned at E3. And that still leaves room for a Christmas 2020 PS5, possibly with "enhanced" patches for games like Death Stranding. "Now you can run it at 4k60!"
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
27,052
357
126
I think that would be suicide. No one wanted to pay $500 for the XBox One despite it having a better launch lineup than the PS4.



It sounds like XBox is coming in 2020 with two versions: one a cheap streaming box and the second a standard console. I imagine it will be priced really aggressively for Microsoft to try to win the market share back that it lost with XBox One. They really screwed up trying to target casuals with motion controls after those casuals had moved to mobile gaming and making the XBox One as an HTPC was a disaster too. I think they'll try to target hardcore gamers like they did in the first half of the life of the XBox 360 when they had so much success. I think one way they'll do this is to target 60 fps with Ryzen cpus.

Microsoft sounds desperate to beat Sony to market and PS5 before 2021 sounds doubtful since they're claiming The Last of Us Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, and Death Stranding will be PS4 games. Though I think Death Stranding is a complete lie, no way that's getting released before PS5. But if the other two were 2019 games, Sony would have said so at E3. 2022-24 for next gen sounds way too late when TSMC is already in mass production of 7nm chips.

True 4k is a waste of processing power IMO, I think you're going to continue seeing dynamic resolutions implemented since it gives added value to every subsequent console released. Every time there is a gpu node shrink they can do Pro consoles that will automatically give resolution bumps in most AAA games thanks to them being designed with dynamic resolutions in mind.

Microsoft is going to have to compete with nvidia for streaming a little bit too. The Nvidia Shield is not that popular but it offers game streaming via GeForce now and your steam library. A lot of titles cross over between steam and consoles now. I don’t think people will be rushing out to buy shields instead of an Xbox but on some forums the game streaming via the shield is gaining traction.
 

Stg-Flame

Diamond Member
Mar 10, 2007
3,511
477
126
This is the reason I prefer PC gaming over current-gen console gaming. I'm willing to bet that most of the new console's lineups will also be available on PC either upon their release, or within six months (similar to Monster Hunter World). I also have friends who just have to have the latest console with the latest version of their favorite PS3/360 game but scoff at the idea of spending around $1,500 for a solid PC setup that will easily last ten years.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,871
5,720
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Predictions:

Launch: Q3 2019 - Q3 2020

- 8C/16T AMD Zen/Navi derivative APU
- Native 4K 60 fps with Freesync support
- PS VR 2 Support
- 16 GB GDDR6
- 2 TB SSD (not a good one, but faster than the ole HDD)
- 4K Ultra HD Player
- Select PS4/XB1 titles backward compatible
- One slightly modified controller included

$400 - $500

Different product tiers could obviously be differentiated by bundles, different storage capacities/formats, etc.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
27,052
357
126
This is the reason I prefer PC gaming over current-gen console gaming. I'm willing to bet that most of the new console's lineups will also be available on PC either upon their release, or within six months (similar to Monster Hunter World). I also have friends who just have to have the latest console with the latest version of their favorite PS3/360 game but scoff at the idea of spending around $1,500 for a solid PC setup that will easily last ten years.

For me it was about exclusives and bad PC ports lacking features. I don't get Sony's library on the PC and some games on Xbox had HDR support where it was lacking on PC. HDR is a huge difference in picture quality. It's so hard to go back given the option. I think MS is getting better though and HDR support will not be left out of PC titles.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
27,052
357
126
Predictions:

Launch: Q3 2019 - Q3 2020

- 8C/16T AMD Zen/Navi derivative APU
- Native 4K 60 fps with Freesync support
- PS VR 2 Support
- 16 GB GDDR6
- 2 TB SSD (not a good one, but faster than the ole HDD)
- 4K Ultra HD Player
- Select PS4/XB1 titles backward compatible
- One slightly modified controller included

$400 - $500

Different product tiers could obviously be differentiated by bundles, different storage capacities/formats, etc.

It's already been pretty much confirmed by Microsoft that backwards compatibility is going to be built in from now on.
 

Stg-Flame

Diamond Member
Mar 10, 2007
3,511
477
126
For me it was about exclusives and bad PC ports lacking features. I don't get Sony's library on the PC and some games on Xbox had HDR support where it was lacking on PC. HDR is a huge difference in picture quality. It's so hard to go back given the option. I think MS is getting better though and HDR support will not be left out of PC titles.
There's the exclusives, yes, but for that reason alone I can't justify spending that much money for a new console if I'm only going to be playing a few games. When it comes to console ports on PC, there's usually the option for mods and free online, so I don't usually see the reason for playing the same game on a console when my PC can play it fully maxed out with the option of mods.

The exclusives are the reason why I just now (a few days ago actually) bought a Wii U. I really wanted to play Pikmin 3 and maybe a few others when it was announced, but those few games weren't worth the price tag it would cost for me to get them when they were first released.
 

Skel

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2001
6,214
659
136
I think this coming generation you'll see both companies moving towards a more diskless approach. I'd also be willing to bet that from MS you'll see more cross platform ability between it's Xbox and PCs. I'm sure the monthly subscription model they're pushing now will become more the standard, but it'll give you the ability to play the same game session on whatever Windows platform you'd like.
 

PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
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I think this coming generation you'll see both companies moving towards a more diskless approach.

Sure, it drops the HW price, and distribution price, and provides greater lock in, and less game mobility.

Long term, I think Microsoft might just make Xbox a Service that runs on any Win 10 PC with appropriate HW.

After all the goal is not to sell negligible profit consoles. It's to get a cut on game sales and services.

Though they will probably keep selling console HW for those that want the simplicity of a console.
 

Skel

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2001
6,214
659
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Sure, it drops the HW price, and distribution price, and provides greater lock in, and less game mobility.

Long term, I think Microsoft might just make Xbox a Service that runs on any Win 10 PC with appropriate HW.

After all the goal is not to sell negligible profit consoles. It's to get a cut on game sales and services.

Though they will probably keep selling console HW for those that want the simplicity of a console.

They've already done that. Win10 comes with a Xbox app that connects to the Xbox service.. I couldn't tell you too much about it as I've almost never done anything with it. I know it was also on their Win Phones when they were around, and even had games for it that had their own sets of achievements. I also think they'll continue to make consoles. It'll be like their Surface line.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,236
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Sure, it drops the HW price, and distribution price, and provides greater lock in, and less game mobility.

Long term, I think Microsoft might just make Xbox a Service that runs on any Win 10 PC with appropriate HW.

After all the goal is not to sell negligible profit consoles. It's to get a cut on game sales and services.

Though they will probably keep selling console HW for those that want the simplicity of a console.

It would be pretty cool if Microsoft made an "XBox on a PCIe card". Put the entire XBox One S/X APU on a card, so that you can run XBox One games on original hardware in a fully enclosed hard to hack environment, but also let you use the GPU portion as a regular DX12 GPU for Windows games.
 
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PeterScott

Platinum Member
Jul 7, 2017
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They've already done that. Win10 comes with a Xbox app that connects to the Xbox service.. I couldn't tell you too much about it as I've almost never done anything with it. I know it was also on their Win Phones when they were around, and even had games for it that had their own sets of achievements. I also think they'll continue to make consoles. It'll be like their Surface line.

I am thinking they go a lot further than that. All Xbox games will run on the PC using the XBox Service in the future.

When they enable that, their installed base potentially increases by the number of gaming PCs that fire up the service.

I still think they will make console for people that don't want to bother with a PC, but the PC will be able to play any game written for Xbox from day 1.
 
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SteveGrabowski

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Oct 20, 2014
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I think this coming generation you'll see both companies moving towards a more diskless approach.

Disc is the cheapest form of physical media, and all the console manufacturers are going to have to put out physical games or no retailer will carry their hardware.
 

Skel

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2001
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I am thinking they go a lot further than that. All Xbox games will run on the PC using the XBox Service in the future.

When they enable that, their installed base potentially increases by the number of gaming PCs that fire up the service.

I still think they will make console for people that don't want to bother with a PC, but the PC will be able to play any game written for Xbox from day 1.

I'm in agreement. My point in saying that you'll be able to play the same game session is that you'll be able to switch over to a console from a PC and vice verses in a moment.

Disc is the cheapest form of physical media, and all the console manufacturers are going to have to put out physical games or no retailer will carry their hardware.

What retailer do you speak of? Aren't the game only stores struggling already? I've little doubt they're moving towards a physical media less world. At most it'll follow like PC software where you can buy a box that contains a card with the download code on it.
 

cmdrdredd

Lifer
Dec 12, 2001
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I'm in agreement. My point in saying that you'll be able to play the same game session is that you'll be able to switch over to a console from a PC and vice verses in a moment.

This already happens with windows and Xbox one games that are part of MS’ program where if you buy one you get the other version too. Cloud save and you can jump from pc to Xbox without missing a beat and I think some games even offer cross play now.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
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What retailer do you speak of? Aren't the game only stores struggling already? I've little doubt they're moving towards a physical media less world. At most it'll follow like PC software where you can buy a box that contains a card with the download code on it.

I'm thinking of big box retailers like Best Buy, Target, Wal Mart, etc.
 

Skel

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2001
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I'm thinking of big box retailers like Best Buy, Target, Wal Mart, etc.

I don't frequent those places often, but isn't the footprint for their console games small? They would probably still sell the console if it makes them money. Either way, I can't see physical media remaining long term at the point. The physical has to be selling far less as time goes by. I'm not sure where to look for a source for the data that's trustworthy, and I'm too tired to do it now. I'll attempt to swing around and look tomorrow if I have time, or someone else does it for me.. which would be nice.. ;).
 

preslove

Lifer
Sep 10, 2003
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1. Bluerays are not going away
2. They aren't going to be more expensive than $400 (for the cheaper version)
3. PS5 won't come out before xbox2 bc sony is just killing Microsoft at the moment. Sony is in the cash-in period and won't disrupt that without cause.
4. It's going to be a low clocked ryzen
5. Full backwards compatibility will be the norm bc they're all just x86 machines on a limited number of AMD configs. All 1st wave games will have PS4/x1 versions that are just lower res. This might last a while.
6. Cheap PS5/x2 will probs have 12 gb ddr5. Maybe 16?
 
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Justinbaileyman

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Aug 17, 2013
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It would be pretty cool if Microsoft made an "XBox on a PCIe card". Put the entire XBox One S/X APU on a card, so that you can run XBox One games on original hardware in a fully enclosed hard to hack environment, but also let you use the GPU portion as a regular DX12 GPU for Windows games.
I think there are more people then you know that want this just as much as us. This is why you see so many emulators of all the different generations of consoles for download for PC.In my eyes, as long as you are paying for a physical retail game you shoud be able to sit down and play that on the device of your choice weather that be on console or PC. I hate buying digital games just for the thought that I might be able to play it on pc as well. The reason being is I bought several games digitally that went poof and are no longer able to be downloaded through xbox live or windows store. 2 games being TMNT Arcade and Turtles In Time. For what ever reason they got pulled from the digital stores and I never got a reason or a refund for my money.So maybe they could start selling physical retail games with a included digital copy free of charge like they do in most blu-ray movies these days.
 

nurturedhate

Golden Member
Aug 27, 2011
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I don't frequent those places often, but isn't the footprint for their console games small? They would probably still sell the console if it makes them money. Either way, I can't see physical media remaining long term at the point. The physical has to be selling far less as time goes by. I'm not sure where to look for a source for the data that's trustworthy, and I'm too tired to do it now. I'll attempt to swing around and look tomorrow if I have time, or someone else does it for me.. which would be nice.. ;).
We are still a very long way from dropping physical sales, probably more than a decade. Large parts of the US has terrible internet speeds where downloading a 50gb games would take several days. Couple that with enforced data caps being more common. For a lot of people downloading two games would take a week plus and put them at the cap. The US just isn't set up support the loss of physical sales.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
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In my eyes, as long as you are paying for a physical retail game you shoud be able to sit down and play that on the device of your choice weather that be on console or PC.

I would hate if that happened. This generation Sony has put a lot of money into some great exclusives to get people to buy into their platform, almost like a loss leader. I imagine we'd see a lot less investment in quality single player games from Sony if anyone could buy their game and just play it on XBox or PC. You get people to buy your console for God of War or Bloodborne and they'll probably buy Call of Duty, Fortnite, Battlefield, GTA, and so on on your console too. Take that away and there is no point of loss leader exclusives and then the way to maximize profit is to turn these great single player franchises like The Last of Us, God of War, Uncharted, etc into crap shooters, survival games, MMOs, etc like Bethesda has done with Fallout and Elder Scrolls.
 
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