WWIII likely start date (and what to expect)

[Indus]

The world is very different now. It was only at the end of WW II that nuclear weapons came into play and their were only 2 that were actual weapons. Hopefully they are the only ones that will ever be used. IIRC, 10 kilo ton, which is huge but tiny compared to the hydrogen bombs developed soon after WW II ended. Warfare in the 2nd 1/2 of the 20th century and beyond has been regional conflicts not global.

The more things change.. the more they stay the same.

Never a shortage of people wanting to kill each other for shits, giggles and brags!

 

[Muse]

The more things change.. the more they stay the same.

Never a shortage of people wanting to kill each other for shits, giggles and brags!

You hear that one very frequently but it's not a favorite of mine. At all.

There's killing people and there's killing people.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You are obviously not keeping up with current events. Israel has done more lately to unite the world against it especially the Middle Eastern nations. Few remain in its corner, notably the US. Decades of diplomacy to establish economic and political ties with major powers in the region (Isreal and nearby powers) are now being cast aside in a campaign of land acquisition under the banner of "freeing hostages".

The current conservative leadership's position is that Palestine does not exist and never has, therefore land belongs to whoever can take it.

I just hope the Middle East is not forced to create a united defense force. The Middle East version of NATO. The attack on Qatar has shown that no-one will come to your aid if Isreal decides to bomb you. The solution is to have your own (adequate) defenses or join a united group with shared funding to protect each other.

A final showdown of East vs West resulting in Armageddon was predicted over 40 years ago in this video:

It is easy to criticize the quaint ideas brought forth in the video from our modern perspective but I think an East vs West scenario is plausible and I think world leaders have been working for many years to prevent it from happening.

Exactly as predicted...

Trump signs an executive order vowing to defend Qatar in the wake of Israel's strike

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order pledging to defend Qatar, including using U.S. military action if necessary.

apnews.com

This will hopefully head off a unified Middle Eastern military.

The new ME military alliance is probably inevitable in 10 to 20 years.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

You hear that one very frequently but it's not a favorite of mine. At all.

There's killing people and there's killing people.

You think the firebombing of Tokyo wasn't killing people?

 

[Muse]

You think the firebombing of Tokyo wasn't killing people?

Did I say that? Anyway, that was ~80 years ago. We're talking about that mythical WW III, the one that keeps not happening.

 

[Moonbeam]

Did I say that? Anyway, that was ~80 years ago. We're talking about that mythical WW III, the one that keeps not happening.

The issue as I see it is that childhood traumatic events provoke different reactions depending on ? factors. We survive them by various methods of accommodation. There is the Stockholm route, so easily seen in conservatives, where the psyche survives by total surrender to its victimizers and the victim becomes a future abuser. Then there is a more liberal types that retains some sense of empathy for the victim, who hangs on either side a sense of idealism and hope.

In terms of projection on the likelihood oF WW3, those for whom psychic death was most sever will see in the future their own past. They will become the doom sayers with a subset of then actively working to bring about the end. For those who survives with less sever damage the notion of total annihilation will seem impossible.

All I know or should say my opinion is that the greater the ignorance to the origins of the psychological condition of humanity the more likely WW3 is.

We have met the enemy and he is us. We are our own worst enemy. Why do we have such expressions? We will not face the truth head on but some of us intuit what it is.

Psychic trauma leaves a death wish, a wish to end our unfazed pain. Everything we fear has already happened.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Did I say that? Anyway, that was ~80 years ago. We're talking about that mythical WW III, the one that keeps not happening.

You're watching a genocide take place in Palestine and you think fascist leaders don't have the cruelty to unleash nuclear war? We haven't had a world war since 1945 only because the kind of fascists that started that war hadn't yet risen to power again. Now they have in the US, Russia, and Israel.

 

[Muse]

You're watching a genocide take place in Palestine and you think fascist leaders don't have the cruelty to unleash nuclear war? We haven't had a world war since 1945 only because the kind of fascists that started that war hadn't yet risen to power again. Now they have in the US, Russia, and Israel.

OK, so you're what? Planning? Last I heard your plan wasn't bunker building but a bike ride to local AF base so you get annihilated instantaneously. Only one country has dropped a nuclear weapon and it's the USA. Two small A-bombs that ended WW II. The exception that proved the rule: nuclear weapons ended world warfare on earth. For all time.

Now they have in the US, Russia, and Israel.

Those countries have had nukes for a very long time and they have not utilized them

 

[SteveGrabowski]

OK, so you're what? Planning? Last I heard your plan wasn't bunker building but a bike ride to local AF base so you get annihilated instantaneously. Only one country has dropped a nuclear weapon and it's the USA. Two small A-bombs that ended WW II. The exception that proved the rule: nuclear weapons ended world warfare on earth. For all time.



Those countries have had nukes for a very long time and they have not utilized them

Can you not tell the difference between the United States and this new Fourth Reich? Are you going to argue to me that Trump and Stephen Miller are responsible adults who wouldn't cross red lines? I really don't understand the level of faith you have in Trump. And what should I do in the event of an EAS 30 minute warning when I live less than a mile from an airfield that can handle C-5 traffic much less B-2 and would thus be a pretty high priority target to cripple the US response? The roads would 100% be gridlocked as everyone would be trying to flee my area if that warning came on. When I bought this house in 2008 I didn't foresee the US falling under nazi control so the AFB near me didn't worry me. Guess that's on me though.

 

[Jaskalas]

Those countries have had nukes for a very long time and they have not utilized them

Because of relatively sane and rational leadership.
That's in REAL short f'ing supply these days.

Russia is currently committed to total war for the invasion of Europe. In the largest war since WW2.
United States has also fallen to tyranny and fascism. Just a matter of time until that insanity leads to violence and war.

The world today is not the same as it was. Times change, and nations do not last forever. Those nukes will find their way into the wrong hands. One way or another.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Because of relatively sane and rational leadership.
That's in REAL short f'ing supply these days.

Russia is currently committed to total war for the invasion of Europe. In the largest war since WW2.
United States has also fallen to tyranny and fascism. Just a matter of time until that insanity leads to violence and war.

The world today is not the same as it was. Times change, and nations do not last forever. Those nukes will find their way into the wrong hands. One way or another.

Yeah Trump, Putin, and Netenyahu have all shown us exactly what they think of human life. When someone shows you who they are, believe them.

 

[Muse]

Yeah Trump, Putin, and Netenyahu have all shown us exactly what they think of human life. When someone shows you who they are, believe them.

Those guys and Xi have no intention to use nuclear weapons. 4th Reich in the USA? Not yet. You guys can extrapolate in your minds. Nobody knows where we're going but for my part, I want the fascist element neutered.

 

[Muse]

Because of relatively sane and rational leadership.
That's in REAL short f'ing supply these days.

Russia is currently committed to total war for the invasion of Europe. In the largest war since WW2.
United States has also fallen to tyranny and fascism. Just a matter of time until that insanity leads to violence and war.

The world today is not the same as it was. Times change, and nations do not last forever. Those nukes will find their way into the wrong hands. One way or another.

Russia would like to take over the Balkans but they know it's one step at a time for all that shit and they also know it's not likely to happen. They're treading water and getting exhausted just dealing with Ukraine.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Those guys and Xi have no intention to use nuclear weapons. 4th Reich in the USA? Not yet. You guys can extrapolate in your minds. Nobody knows where we're going but for my part, I want the fascist element neutered.

I like you @Muse, but you gotta be the last person to recognize that fascism is not coming, it's already here. We're not going anywhere; we have already arrived. The impoundment, the DOGE cuts, the invasions of cities, Trump's creation of a Schutzstaffel via making ICE into a full blown army, the concentration camps, the pocket rescission, these are right now, not some terrifying future we can seek to avoid. This is not a democracy, it is now the same kind of oligarchy Russia is and is similarly led by an unstable madman king who puts no value in human life. The world powers being led by fascist madmen is exactly how we got World War II and it's crazy to dismiss history repeating itself. Xi is about the only sane leader of the bunch. Trump, Netenyahu, and Putin are the same kind of mass-murdering thugs Hitler, Tojo, and Mussolini were.

 

[Muse]

I like you @Muse, but you gotta be the last person to recognize that fascism is not coming, it's already here. We're not going anywhere; we have already arrived. The impoundment, the DOGE cuts, the invasions of cities, Trump's creation of a Schutzstaffel via making ICE into a full blown army, the concentration camps, the pocket rescission, these are right now, not some terrifying future we can seek to avoid. This is not a democracy, it is now the same kind of oligarchy Russia is and is similarly led by an unstable madman king who puts no value in human life. The world powers being led by fascist madmen is exactly how we got World War II and it's crazy to dismiss history repeating itself. Xi is about the only sane leader of the bunch. Trump, Netenyahu, and Putin are the same kind of mass-murdering thugs Hitler, Tojo, and Mussolini were.

I'm not aware of Trump having his enemies assassinated, something that Putin does all the time. We're not there yet and I don't expect we will under Trump. Netanyahu? Well, he's (Mossad) not above assassinating some enemies in enemy territory, but neither is Trump. Nor was Obama.

 

[Muse]

The world today is not the same as it was. Times change, and nations do not last forever. Those nukes will find their way into the wrong hands. One way or another.

If I were designing nuclear weapons I'd make sure that they aren't like a car with the keys left in the ignition. They'd be impossible to use without heavy duty authorization. They'd have tough security built deeply into the systems, systems that wouldn't operate in the hands of people not authorized. They might be able to salvage some nuclear material but that wouldn't be a bomb of any kind without sophisticated re-engineering.

 

[eelw]

I'm not aware of Trump having his enemies assassinated, something that Putin does all the time. We're not there yet and I don't expect we will under Trump. Netanyahu? Well, he's (Mossad) not above assassinating some enemies in enemy territory, but neither is Trump. Nor was Obama.

Lol he’d love to have his enemies falling out windows. And to be frank, he has goons that would be willing to do it for him. It’s people in between that’s only preventing it.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I'm not aware of Trump having his enemies assassinated, something that Putin does all the time. We're not there yet and I don't expect we will under Trump. Netanyahu? Well, he's (Mossad) not above assassinating some enemies in enemy territory, but neither is Trump. Nor was Obama.

It'll be coming. I bet you would have thought I was nuts if I told you we'd have concentration camps, American cities invaded and occupied, and a new Schutzstaffel this soon back in January. We're already a fascist dictatorship though, as the supreme court has repeatedly made clear for us.

 

[Muse]

Lol he’d love to have his enemies falling out windows. And to be frank, he has goons that would be willing to do it for him. It’s people in between that’s only preventing it.

Whatever the reason it's not happening and I think it won't. He will not put out a death warrant for Biden or Nancy or Kamala or Buttigieg or Newsom. Hate is one thing, murder is another. I think he fears himself (and for good reason). He's afraid of the aftermath should he start having people assassinated. He's afraid of where it would go if it came to that.

 

[Pens1566]

Whatever the reason it's not happening and I think it won't. He will not put out a death warrant for Biden or Nancy or Kamala or Buttigieg or Newsom. Hate is one thing, murder is another. I think he fears himself (and for good reason).

Using that one single criteria to refute the mountains of others is ... naive.

Especially when there is an adjacent one where he's actively having his critics/enemies prosecuted for a legal case that wouldn't survive a defense from a 1L student with a pulse.

 

[Muse]

Using that one single criteria to refute the mountains of others is ... naive.

Especially when there is an adjacent one where he's actively having his critics/enemies prosecuted for a legal case that wouldn't survive a defense from a 1L student with a pulse.

He's all about lawyers and court cases, always has a stable of lawyers in tow. But assassins? Hey, man, what comics have you been reading? Show me the info.

 

[Pens1566]

He's all about lawyers and court cases, always has a stable of lawyers in tow. But assassins? Hey, man, what comics have you been reading? Show me the info.

Like I said, hanging your hat on that one point and ignoring the other indicators is folly.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

He's all about lawyers and court cases, always has a stable of lawyers in tow. But assassins? Hey, man, what comics have you been reading? Show me the info.

I got a bridge to sell you if you think ICE being built up to the size of an army isn't to allow them to turn their guns on us. They're the 2025 Schutzstaffel.

 

[Muse]

I got a bridge to sell you if you think ICE being built up to the size of an army isn't to allow them to turn their guns on us. They're the 2025 Schutzstaffel.

Pix of the bridge?

 

[Muse]

Post in concerning MAD, lots of info and details in that thread which is about Richard L. Garwin, the man who designed and evidently supervised the construction of hydrogen bombs.

Maybe the greatest obit you could ever read is about someone you probably didn't know existed

He died a week ago at 97, Dr. Richard L. Garwin, a polymath. He's the guy who designed the hydrogen bomb and then (among so many other accomplishments) went on a life-long mission to reduce the risks it posed. Linked here are 2 fascinating articles concerning Garwin (in particular the 1st, by a...

forums.anandtech.com

A favorite quotation of mine, by Dr. Garwin:

You can get things done or you can get recognition. You can't do both. - Richard L. Garwin

The quote, "You can get things done or you can get recognition. You can't do both," is
a principle that physicist and government advisor Richard L. Garwin imparted to newcomers entering public service. It describes the trade-off between prioritizing personal glory and achieving a goal that may require working behind the scenes or sacrificing credit.

The meaning behind the quote

• Focus on the objective. For Garwin, the most important thing was solving problems and making progress, particularly in his work on national security and arms control. Taking personal credit or engaging in self-promotion can distract from the mission, stir up jealousy, or interfere with building the necessary consensus to succeed.
• The path of quiet influence. Garwin himself was known for his quiet influence and preference for pragmatism over politics. He spent decades advising presidents and government agencies on vital national security issues, including arms control and intelligence technologies, with much of his work remaining classified. He was dubbed "the most influential scientist you've never heard of" by his biographer.
• A contrast in priorities. The quote highlights two different motivations. One is an external desire for public acclaim, while the other is an internal drive to make an impact, regardless of who receives the credit. Garwin's principle suggests that pursuing both simultaneously often leads to compromising the integrity of the work or its success.
• The reality of collaboration. In many complex fields like government and research, significant achievements are the result of many individuals' contributions. An individual who insists on taking all the credit may alienate collaborators and make future cooperative efforts more difficult. Garwin's principle advises people to accept that success, especially in a team setting, may mean allowing others to take the spotlight.