WWIII likely start date (and what to expect)

[Udgnim]

nukes keep major nation states from direct conflicts with each other (other than India / Pakistan)

drones keep any country that cares about the lives of its military from engaging in a modern land war

China is playing the long game and focusing on soft power, economic strength, and technological advancement to spread its influence. Taiwan is political posturing to China.

Israel has attacked Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, and the Middle East isn't any closer to banding together against Israel

Russia has its hands full with Ukraine and is only relevant due to its nuclear arsenal. Russia would be smashed by NATO in a conventional war.

EU has no desire to directly engage in armed conflict.

United States might do something stupid as the government gets further corrupted, but we'll see what happens in the 26 / 28 elections.

technically there is a "war" in terms of disinformation / propaganda via social media influence. don't know what the history books will call it.

 

[cytg111]

Russia has its hands full with Ukraine and is only relevant due to its nuclear arsenal. Russia would be smashed by NATO in a conventional war.

Are you sure about that?
I am not.
Here is how it goes.

Putin keeps the front burning, be it in Ukraine or further west. (He might take Ukraine and turn it's battle apparatus west)

Adhering to rules of engagement, so no nervegas or tactical nukes.

The MAD principle still applies, no one wants to throw nukes.

Now Russia is in Total War mode.

It's a war of attrition vs NATO members.

NATO countries commits soldiers to the front.

At this point its a matter of time, cause Russia can have another million dead mobiks on it's door step in another year and still go on.

How long do you think European democracies will stand for our soldiers coming back in body bags before the political theater takes a hard right turn?

And at that point Putin will have won without even crossing our borders.



IMO our only chance, if Putin pushes through Ukraine, is a blitz operation. Hammer time. Seven days. End of Russia.

Again. Talking out of my ass. So there is that.

 

[Pontius Dilate]

In the nuclear age, this may be the last and final approach.

My point is even if we lit off every nuke we had the world would not end. Humans might not make it in the long term, but that won't be because the anti-christ came to reign for 1000 years or a bunch of people got raptured to heaven or whatever.

 

[eelw]

Lol who knows what Putin is thinking. Like does he really think his orange puppet will turn on the rest of NATO and side with him? Sure it’s unlikely the US would send in help should Poland or Estonia declare war. But the rest of NATO would directly attack Moscow to truly end this war in 24 hours

 

[AnitaPeterson]

My point is even if we lit off every nuke we had the world would not end. Humans might not make it in the long term, but that won't be because the anti-christ came to reign for 1000 years or a bunch of people got raptured to heaven or whatever.

I never mentioned eschatology or any religious belief (Christian or otherwise). This is not one of those threads. Avoid Moonbeam's trap of making assumptions about everyone else's motives according to your own worldviews and personal philosophy.

 

[cytg111]

Billion upon billions of money spend on social studies, philosophy and whatnot, and you are telling me that the brightest minds to ever walk the planet cant find a way to de escalation? We had treaties for dearming nukes, standing down... thats the framework we need to get back to.

No hope. Fuck off.

 

[Moonbeam]

I wasn't at all. I fed your post into ChatGPT and asked it to summarise it. Tbh I thought that it got the jist of things even if it did lose any subtlety.

Before I replied it crossed my mind that was what you did, but considering how hard that would be for me to do and assuming obviously falsely it would be the same for you, I decided it was unlikely. My apologies for not trusting my first instinct.

I mean without passing any judgement your posts can be wordy!

I get that a lot. I believe that people only value what they work for which is why I quit a promising future at a prestigious university to earn money for therapy at a service job, the value of which was infinitely more in my opinion that the price I paid. That wisdom so valuable to me and paid for at the price of a typically desired life, I pass on here as best I can for free. But since no value comes free I choose to express what most are uninterested to hear anyway in a manner that requires some degree of intention to decipher. I think of it as paying with intention.

I absolutely apologise if that's how it came off. That was not my intention at all!

I certainly believe you here not only because you actually did what I guessed but dismissed, but also because the incorrect suspicion I had seemed to me did not match my sense of you at all. I have a positive view of you as a person which you continue to confirm.

The post I made that you put through AI was actually highly condensed, a series of logical associations in shotgun succession minus elaboration.

I will say thought is fear and leave it at that because I have explained that in depth elsewhere here many times. Thought is self talk in language. Words are learned and in the process of learning them become associated with emotional content all of which are now in the past. Thought evokes memories that we are no longer consciously aware of, what we feel say when somebody says we are evil. Most of us will just hear sound if the insult is delivered in Swahili. Language creates duality by division. We learn to categorize, divide a tree from a forest, think in terms of associations rather that experience the oneness of being, the state of awareness that animals have. We think ourselves into ego, this is me that is you. We are our thoughts our anxieties, our fears, we live in time, worry the future will repeat our past. This thought and hysterical imagination. There is only an end of the world to the thinker because that end is the product of thought. Enlightenment is when thought is not. Don’t think rhinoceros. Do not think. Thought is ego. Stop thought and ego dies. So my dear ego, we need to stop thinking to be free. OK, I’ll get right on it. Let me create a plan. Right, the ego is only too hsppt to kill itself.

So how do you stop thought. YOU don’t. There is no exit, no way for the you you think of as you to end itself. Imagine you are at the end of your rope and see that. What would be letting go if you simply can’t hang on? What if the door bell rang and it was God or the wind began to howl.

 

[AnitaPeterson]

Billion upon billions of money spend on social studies, philosophy and whatnot, and you are telling me that the brightest minds to ever walk the planet cant find a way to de escalation? We had treaties for dearming nukes, standing down... thats the framework we need to get back to.

No hope. Fuck off.

How can the brightest minds on the planet exert any influence? Think about the three smartest people - whoever they may be, in your mind - and ask yourself how would they reach AND sway someone like Putin, Trump, Xi or Kim?

If Einstein was still alive, do you see him walking up to the White House and asking to see Trump for some urgent advice? With what result?

 

[cytg111]

How can the brightest minds on the planet exert any influence? Think about the three smartest people - whoever they may be, in your mind - and ask yourself how would they reach AND sway someone like Putin, Trump, Xi or Kim?

If Einstein was still alive, do you see him walking up to the White House and asking to see Trump for some urgent advice? With what result?

Yea I do.

Take Twitter. Even in the most capitalistic environment/setting imaginable the content turned leftist and liberal. Why? Cause it sold more adds. Mind that Twitter was listed at the time so the board had an obligation to maximize profits. It still turned liberal and leftist. Why?
CAUSE ITS WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT.
Hint: Mamdani.

But no I dont, in the literal sense with Trump.

Cause Trump is not for progress he is for himself, and he is the kind of person to take the world down with him if it demands it. He is the last person who should be entrusted with power - PER THE BIBLE.

But Einstein COULD address the nation. Oppenheimer could. And rise the opposing unstoppable force that will crush the would-be immovable object.

Fuck these bitches. Fight.

 

[Moonbeam]

I never mentioned eschatology or any religious belief (Christian or otherwise). This is not one of those threads. Avoid Moonbeam's trap of making assumptions about everyone else's motives according to your own worldviews and personal philosophy.

As you fully buy into exactly your own worldview and personal philosophy about me.

What’s the big deal about me having perhaps an even profoundly deeper self understanding than you do? The truth is the truth regardless of how far either you or I am from it. Why the fear and need to reject what I say.

What makes the idea that if you know yourself you know everybody else because because the characteristics of egocentrism are universally the same. Isn’t it because ego is a self armor, a self generated self affirmation needed to cover and hide your own real feelings of inferiority you fear will be exposed if what I sat is true? Am I not a deadly existential threat? Yet I tell you that everything you fear has already happened. Now your only real enemy is the product of though filled imagination.

What on earth would I gain by being superior to you. Superior, inferior, do not exist. You believe they do. That is your trap. Qualitative difference is a sacred cow to you, a kind of religious belief that depends on the presence of dualistic thinking to exist. Fear of nuclear war or Armageddon are both based on the externalization of self hatred in the form of projection.

 

[Moonbeam]

Billion upon billions of money spend on social studies, philosophy and whatnot, and you are telling me that the brightest minds to ever walk the planet cant find a way to de escalation? We had treaties for dearming nukes, standing down... thats the framework we need to get back to.

No hope. Fuck off.

I say the same. Unfortunately, however, I know that hopeless people are only assholed because they make me feel my highly repressed identical hopelessness. Fuck them for reminding me I feel the same. Of course I can’t fully intone all the contempt I would like because I became aware I’m as sick as they are.

 

[Moonbeam]

Fight.

How am I going to fight hopelessness if I am infected myself? If I cure myself first won’t I know only then how to fight? Prior to that I would only be projecting self righteousness, no?

Not that I don’t think Trump is going down, and that the opposition is growing, but it seems to me to be more Karmic, than consciousness driven.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

The scenario I would expect: Bot sourcing is already on its way to making most of us superfluous. What are they going to do, share the wealth and prosperity with 100s of millions or even billions, of unemployed humans via UBI or something? Their actions to this point do not favor that outcome.

I doubt they are building private navies and island compounds because of their love of their fellow man. They will fuck right off while something more fatal than the black death sweeps the planet. Shooting wars never kill enough of us. And they have now conditioned most so that they won't even react when the plague comes. By the time the common idiot has a faint grasp of the severity, it'll be way past too late.

It's a far more elegant solution for them than nukes or destroying each others infrastructure on a massive scale. I just don't see nuke exchanges, as that benefits none of them. Sure, there may be one or two that would be satisfied with ruling the ashes, but the rest will 86 them before it goes that far. /My suspicions for how they do it.

 

[eelw]

Come on Melania and other current dictator lovers, wear some poisonous lipstick to help save the world. But yeah this probably wouldn’t work for the orange monkey. Wonder the last time she’s willingly kissed him. Well she can get close enough to his Big Mac

 

[cytg111]

How am I going to fight hopelessness if I am infected myself? If I cure myself first won’t I know only then how to fight? Prior to that I would only be projecting self righteousness, no?

Not that I don’t think Trump is going down, and that the opposition is growing, but it seems to me to be more Karmic, than consciousness driven.

Stfu and grab a frying pan

 

[cytg111]

I say the same. Unfortunately, however, I know that hopeless people are only assholed because they make me feel my highly repressed identical hopelessness. Fuck them for reminding me I feel the same. Of course I can’t fully intone all the contempt I would like because I became aware I’m as sick as they are.

You can heal afterwards

 

[Moonbeam]

You can heal afterwards

Right, after my self righteous certainty and herd mentality fucks over the world. Then I can die knowing my own arrogance and cowardliness killed me. Yup, fuck me!

Like I said, truth is the last thing anybody wants to confront.

 

[gothuevos]

Yea I do.

Take Twitter. Even in the most capitalistic environment/setting imaginable the content turned leftist and liberal. Why? Cause it sold more adds. Mind that Twitter was listed at the time so the board had an obligation to maximize profits. It still turned liberal and leftist. Why?
CAUSE ITS WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT.
Hint: Mamdani.

But no I dont, in the literal sense with Trump.

Cause Trump is not for progress he is for himself, and he is the kind of person to take the world down with him if it demands it. He is the last person who should be entrusted with power - PER THE BIBLE.

But Einstein COULD address the nation. Oppenheimer could. And rise the opposing unstoppable force that will crush the would-be immovable object.

Fuck these bitches. Fight.

You watch too many movies, IMO.

 

[Moonbeam]

Stfu and grip a frying pan

I’m just heading in moments to the kitchen to do just that. Am going to caramelize onions, fry hamburger meat and add fresh tomatoes and Italian whole canned tomatoes to Rao’s marinara sauce, and throw in some fresh chanterelles. I’ll be using an all clad 10in frypan And their Mother of All Pans. I haven’t decided on what pasta to use just yet but I am partial to angle hair spaghettini.

 

[Perknose]

I’m just heading in moments to the kitchen to do just that. Am going to caramelize onions, fry hamburger meat and add fresh tomatoes and Italian whole canned tomatoes to Rao’s marinara sauce, and throw in some fresh chanterelles. I’ll be using an all clad 10in frypan And their Mother of All Pans. I haven’t decided on what pasta to use just yet but I am partial to angle hair spaghettini.

I'm partial to angel hair pasta, too. But not all brands are truly angel hair. If you can't see so visually, just look on the box for the suggested boiling time. Anything over 2-3 minutes and it's bogus!

 

[Moonbeam]

I'm partial to angel hair pasta, too. But not all brands are truly angel hair. If you can't see so visually, just look on the box for the suggested boiling time. Anything over 2-3 minutes and it's bogus!

Mine is two to three minutes, thank you for the input. My sauce is simmering right now. I watch various chefs on youtube and discovered that in a restaurant pasta, not sure about angle hair, is cooked 80% ahead if time and shaken with olive oil and set aside until needed. Then the pasta is dropped in boiling water to heat and finished in the pan with the fresh made sauce. Great for cooking for guests at home and the clame is the pasta is just the same. I have a new induction range and it really makes boiling water fast. I also do not use a ton of water for a serving. I have tested that and it works fine. The pasta water you doubtlessly know is used to thicken the sauce and less water = more starch per unit of measure. First time I have tried chanterelles in pasta.

 

[Pontius Dilate]

I never mentioned eschatology or any religious belief (Christian or otherwise). This is not one of those threads. Avoid Moonbeam's trap of making assumptions about everyone else's motives according to your own worldviews and personal philosophy.

I wasn’t making assumptions, I said what I said, you responded and I elaborated/clarified.

Regarding WWIII à la WWII, or the vision of a nuclear war I grew up with in the US vs USSR scenario, even though the US is currently led by wildly incompetent partially insane morons, I don’t see it happening.

 

[Moonbeam]

I wasn’t making assumptions, I said what I said, you responded and I elaborated/clarified.

Regarding WWIII à la WWII, or the vision of a nuclear war I grew up with in the US vs USSR scenario, even though the US is currently led by wildly incompetent partially insane morons, I don’t see it happening.

I would argue your use of the word, ‘partially’.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I don't expect WW III to ever happen. It's been said that the hydrogen bomb was history's exclamation mark. It makes all out warfare by the nations with the greatest technological development obsolete. MAD, if you don't know the acronym, look it up. Nobody wins WW III. It's not a zero sum game it's an everybody loses game.

That's what they said about the machine gun before The Great War. That was going to be the end of war. Surely no one would ever throw people in a front of a gun that can mow ten people into swiss cheese in a few seconds. Oops. H-bombs are made to kill and that's exactly what they will be used for. We already came a hair from having them dropped in 61 and again in 83. They'll be used some day. Trump and Putin both seem itching to use them.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Holy shit dude

If you're within about 9 miles of a decent airport or a military base with an airfield there's a very good chance you'll die if there is ever a full scale nuclear war. Any airfield that bombers can take off from or land at will be an important secondary target and likely has a nuke pointed directly at it for the last 40-50 years. Obviously the Minuteman III missile silo clusters in the north like Minot will be the first target. If you're anywhere within a few hundred miles of those fallout is a major major concern because those will be attacked with nukes burst at ground level which kicks up a bunch of dust right into the fission products produced that the wind will then carry. But being in Texas nowhere near any Minutemen III silos any nuke coming my direction will be an airburst, detonated a mile or so up, to create maximum damage. No real fallout concern with airbursts though.

I wanna say if you're within 9 miles of the epicenter that's directly under a 1 megaton airburst you can expect the pressure wave to level your house. I'm not 100% on that number but it's somewhere around that. Nukes are fucking terrifying and the two world leaders with the most love to threaten to use them. It's not hard to see it escalating with powder kegs in Ukraine, Israel, Iran, and Taiwan right now and shithead fascists in charge of the US and Russia.

If you want to be vaporized you'll need to be within about 1km of directly under the airburst. Otherwise within a mile and a half or so, maybe two, you'd just be burnt to death. You could mitigate this by painting your windows white to reflect 80-90% of that initial heat pulse that travels outward at the speed of light upon detonation, which would buy you a few seconds before the pressure wave collapses your house/apartment on you to kill you lol.

I agree with Khrushchev who said the survivors will envy the dead after a nuclear war. Fallout's not a big concern but having the electric grid wiped out plus a possible nuclear winter sounds worse than dying quickly.