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ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
25,434
5,217
136
Candidate quality does matter, as does where they stand on issues. Democrats running as Republican-lite in red leaning districts is indicative of other sentiments and priorities across the voting populace. Hard to solve say the gun violence issue when part of your coalition will favor a 2A hard line vote.

The only bad result is when you lose a seat. Will be interesting to see if Conor Lamb is able to hold his.
lol, maybe "Republican-lite" is really centrist Democrat. The GOP boarded the crazy train in '08, left the station at full speed.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
Candidate quality does matter, as does where they stand on issues. Democrats running as Republican-lite in red leaning districts is indicative of other sentiments and priorities across the voting populace. Hard to solve say the gun violence issue when part of your coalition will favor a 2A hard line vote.
Empirical analysis clearly shows that partisan shifts are correlated between districts, meaning results more favorable to Democrats in one district indicate it is likely that results are more favorable to them nationally.

Also they are not ‘Republican lite’, they are ‘Democrat lite’. Their overall views are still much to the left of the median Republican.

The only bad result is when you lose a seat. Will be interesting to see if Conor Lamb is able to hold his.
Absolutely not. The marginal value of one house seat here is effectively zero. If seats that are R+11 are now toss-ups this is an unimaginable disaster for Republicans, indicating a Mondale level electoral college loss, a wipeout in the House, and the loss of the Senate.

Now that’s clearly far too much to take from one special election but in EVERY special election you should be looking at how much the partisan vote has shifted from baseline, not who wins. It’s far more meaningful for 2020.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
96,892
11,681
136
I don’t know about him, but you are certainly starting to. I wonder if he knows how to use a sharpie.
yeah. you clearly have no idea what liberals are anymore because you've nosedived off the cliff with the modern rightwing jihadists that make up the GOP.

Yeah, we get it: you still cling to the cliff with your forefinger, yelling out loud to no one in particular that you are "a libertarian and are so much better and more sensible than everyone!" But none of that changes the fact that you followed the same idiots off the cliff, about 10 miles to the right of center in this current world. As far as you can see, any distance to the left of you is evil commie land.

What I'm saying is: Giotto gave the world perspective almost 800 years ago. What you did is take a shovel and beat that notion into a pulp, claiming the only real perspective is the one you now define...and shift every single day out of temporary convenience.
 
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Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
11,223
1,036
126
Empirical analysis clearly shows that partisan shifts are correlated between districts, meaning results more favorable to Democrats in one district indicate it is likely that results are more favorable to them nationally.

Also they are not ‘Republican lite’, they are ‘Democrat lite’. Their overall views are still much to the left of the median Republican.
Call it whatever you fancy. The fact remains that Trump won by lurching far right, and the Democrats reclaimed Congress by reclaiming the center, not shifting left. Despite all of that, and conditions highly unfavorable to Trump, the GOP still held the seat in North Carolina.

Absolutely not. The marginal value of one house seat here is effectively zero. If seats that are R+11 are now toss-ups this is an unimaginable disaster for Republicans, indicating a Mondale level electoral college loss, a wipeout in the House, and the loss of the Senate.
perhaps

Now that’s clearly far too much to take from one special election but in EVERY special election you should be looking at how much the partisan vote has shifted from baseline, not who wins. It’s far more meaningful for 2020.
Every special election is an exercise in political posturing of “this means something!” I agree that 2020 is all that matters.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
11,223
1,036
126
yeah. you clearly have no idea what liberals are anymore because you've nosedived off the cliff with the modern rightwing jihadists that make up the GOP.

Yeah, we get it: you still cling to the cliff with your forefinger, yelling out loud to no one in particular that you are "a libertarian and are so much better and more sensible than everyone!" But none of that changes the fact that you followed the same idiots off the cliff, about 10 miles to the right of center in this current world. As far as you can see, any distance to the left of you is evil commie land.

What I'm saying is: Giotto gave the world perspective almost 800 years ago. What you did is take a shovel and beat that notion into a pulp, claiming the only real perspective is the one you now define...and shift every single day out of temporary convenience.
cool story bro
 

SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,173
964
126
Republicans sweep, emotional AT P&N liberals create an alternate reality where they did well last night. This is actually fascinating to watch.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
Call it whatever you fancy. The fact remains that Trump won by lurching far right, and the Democrats reclaimed Congress by reclaiming the center, not shifting left. Despite all of that, and conditions highly unfavorable to Trump, the GOP still held the seat in North Carolina.
Yes, Republicans won by about two points in a district Trump carried by 11 points. That’s a very, very bad result, indicative of exactly that, conditions highly unfavorable to Trump.

Also, Clinton ran an extremely centrist campaign.

perhaps

Every special election is an exercise in political posturing of “this means something!” I agree that 2020 is all that matters.
The position on what special elections mean is always the same.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
Republicans sweep, emotional AT P&N liberals create an alternate reality where they did well last night. This is actually fascinating to watch.
Lol. This is reminding me of exactly the sort of rationalizing you were doing in 2018 before Republicans lost the house by one of the largest margins in modern American history. It is kind of fascinating to watch you guys refuse to learn even after getting blown out deluding yourselves in the same way.

By all means though, keep doing it! All is well! After all, 2018 was just the normal midterm cycle and I’m sure you’ll be fine. :)

Tee hee.
 

SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,173
964
126
Lol. This is reminding me of exactly the sort of rationalizing you were doing in 2018 before Republicans lost the house by one of the largest margins in modern American history. It is kind of fascinating to watch you guys refuse to learn even after getting blown out deluding yourselves in the same way.

By all means though, keep doing it! All is well! After all, 2018 was just the normal midterm cycle and I’m sure you’ll be fine. :)

Tee hee.

Don't forget they also lost seats in the senate in that same election. And 2018 was nothing compared to 2010... and Obama still won after the 2010 midterm. I don't think you look at things accurately.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
11,223
1,036
126
Yes, Republicans won by about two points in a district Trump carried by 11 points. That’s a very, very bad result, indicative of exactly that, conditions highly unfavorable to Trump.
Trump did not win decisively. He won by the slimmest of margins. This result tells me he is capable of doing so again.

Also, Clinton ran an extremely centrist campaign.
She ran an extremely poor campaign

The position on what special elections mean is always the same.
Yep, along with the inevitable spin
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
Don't forget they also lost seats in the senate in that same election.
Because the seats up for election were in primarily red states. Republicans performed extremely poorly considering how favorable the map was.

And 2018 was nothing compared to 2010... and Obama still won after the 2010 midterm. I don't think you look at things accurately.
In 2010 Republicans won the House vote by 6.8%. In 2018 Democrats won the House vote by 8.6%, a much larger margin of victory. Even worse for Republicans is that their victory in 2010 was due in significant part to low Democratic turnout, which came back in 2012. In 2018 Republican turnout was very high but it just didn’t matter because it couldn’t contain the outpouring of popular hatred for Trump and Republicans. There’s no turnout gap for Trump to fix in 2020, they already turned out and it couldn’t save him.

To any objective observer 2018 was a blowout victory for the Democrats. As I said before though, I encourage you to keep deluding yourself just like you did in 2018! I’m sure this is just another sign of Trump’s inevitable victory so you shouldn’t do anything to adjust.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
Trump did not win decisively. He won by the slimmest of margins. This result tells me he is capable of doing so again.
Well of course, despite the avalanche of think pieces saying ‘don’t think Trump can’t win’ I haven’t seen a single actual person say that.

She ran an extremely poor campaign
Well even if that’s true it doesn’t change the fact that the Democrats weren’t reclaiming the center. They never left the center, where they have been for the last several decades.

Yep, along with the inevitable spin
No spin, just common sense. When you have a baked in advantage of 11 points or whatever and you win by 2 that’s not a good result.
 
Feb 4, 2009
21,349
3,883
126
yeah. you clearly have no idea what liberals are anymore because you've nosedived off the cliff with the modern rightwing jihadists that make up the GOP.

Yeah, we get it: you still cling to the cliff with your forefinger, yelling out loud to no one in particular that you are "a libertarian and are so much better and more sensible than everyone!" But none of that changes the fact that you followed the same idiots off the cliff, about 10 miles to the right of center in this current world. As far as you can see, any distance to the left of you is evil commie land.

What I'm saying is: Giotto gave the world perspective almost 800 years ago. What you did is take a shovel and beat that notion into a pulp, claiming the only real perspective is the one you now define...and shift every single day out of temporary convenience.
767 libertarian votes out of close to 190,000 in that district.
As I said in another thread, Starbuck has to get off his ass and get people voting.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
767 libertarian votes out of close to 190,000 in that district.
As I said in another thread, Starbuck has to get off his ass and get people voting.
Libertarians are like vegans. They represent a very small percentage of the population but everyone knows one because they won't shut up about it.

Libertarianism is not and will never be a popular ideology because it's one of those things that sounds really great until you spend five minutes thinking about the logical implications.
 
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Feb 4, 2009
21,349
3,883
126
Libertarians are like vegans. They represent a very small percentage of the population but everyone knows one because they won't shut up about it.

Libertarianism is not and will never be a popular ideology because it's one of those things that sounds really great until you spend five minutes thinking about the logical implications.
Yup see LOL Libertarians thread
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
11,890
1,387
126
Well even if that’s true it doesn’t change the fact that the Democrats weren’t reclaiming the center. They never left the center, where they have been for the last several decades.
What they mean by 'reclaiming the center' is not being represented by a minority. The Center in this case is a euphemism for white. The Democrat platform has not really changed much in more than a decade, the only thing that has changed is the color of the skin of the person representing it.
 
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SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,173
964
126
What they mean by 'reclaiming the center' is not being represented by a minority. The Center in this case is a euphemism for white. The Democrat platform has not really changed much in more than a decade, the only thing that has changed is the color of the skin of the person representing it.
The left have made a giant leap left. Ideals that were radical just a few years ago are now on the tip of the tongues of their biggest name politicians. Reparations, they're openly socialist, they have stopped caring about personal responsibility, wish to dissolve borders and get rid of ICE. The have abandoned the center and are all trying to out-left each other in their campaigns. I don't know how anyone can keep saying that Democrats are anywhere around the center any more today.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
11,890
1,387
126
The left have made a giant leap left. Ideals that were radical just a few years ago are now on the tip of the tongues of their biggest name politicians. Reparations, they're openly socialist, they have stopped caring about personal responsibility, wish to dissolve borders and get rid of ICE. The have abandoned the center and are all trying to out-left each other in their campaigns. I don't know how anyone can keep saying that Democrats are anywhere around the center any more today.
All of that is fake news.
 
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SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,173
964
126
All of that is fake news.

Nope. You don't get the Squad, viable candidates pushing for basic income, student loan forgiveness, convicted terrorists voting rights, open socialist and popular POTUS candidate Bernie Sanders, etc. from a centralist party.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
The left have made a giant leap left. Ideals that were radical just a few years ago are now on the tip of the tongues of their biggest name politicians. Reparations, they're openly socialist, they have stopped caring about personal responsibility, wish to dissolve borders and get rid of ICE. The have abandoned the center and are all trying to out-left each other in their campaigns. I don't know how anyone can keep saying that Democrats are anywhere around the center any more today.
Because that's what the empirical data shows as opposed to what your feelings tell you. Democrats are definitely left of center for the US but they are pretty much in the dead center for developed countries. They are also far, FAR closer to the center than the Republicans are, who are the most radically right wing major party in any developed country.

Again, this is just what the data shows so if you're going to argue it use data, not anecdotes, and definitely not your feelings.
 
Feb 4, 2009
21,349
3,883
126
I love the open boarders bullshit.
Who says boarders should be open?
Needs to be a major candidate, some moron sitting on a town board somewhere doesn’t count.
However feel free to make fun of that moron.
 

SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,173
964
126
I love the open boarders bullshit.
Who says boarders should be open?
Needs to be a major candidate, some moron sitting on a town board somewhere doesn’t count.
However feel free to make fun of that moron.

If it crossing the border illegally is decriminalized, if we're not enforcing our border (combine that with free education and health care as a human right if the liberals have their way) and what do you think you'll get? That is an open border with encouragement to cross it.
 
Feb 4, 2009
21,349
3,883
126
If it crossing the border illegally is decriminalized, if we're not enforcing our border (combine that with free education and health care as a human right if the liberals have their way) and what do you think you'll get? That is an open border with encouragement to cross it.
The decriminalized part is what needs definition.
You will not find anyone who has any potential to be elected say there should be open boarders.
 

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