WOW! Still divided 50/50.

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
7,478
471
126
After all the outrage over Donald Trump and AOC and impeachment possibilities and the upcoming 2020 election, nothing really has changed.
Look at the special election in NC tonight. Still nearly evenly divided 50/50.
So looks like another cliff hanger, another tight one, another squeaker, and probably more challenges to the outcome due to the vote being so darn close.
Pundits on all the major news networks try to explain it with maps, graphs, and analyzing past history and past elections. But why? That proves nothing....
So what does this mean? It means that NO ONE REALLY KNOWS!
Despite all the maps and graphs and analyzing of data, NO ONE REALLY KNOWS.
And if there is a trend at all out of this, the trend is that anything could happen in 2020. ANYTHING!
Despite everything, Donald Trump "could be" easily reelected.
And despite everything, Joe Biden or whomever might come really close to defeating Donald Trump yet lose once again by only a handful of votes state by state.
So again, what does this all mean?
That the stress and anxiety over 2016 is about to happen again in 2020.
Pundits will get it wrong, polls will get it wrong, and well... it won't look pretty.
After nearly a full first term of Donald Trump, the country is as it was four years ago. Divided 50/50. Split right down the middle. Us vs them.
Obviously, not one liberal has convinced one conservative to change his or her mind.
And not one conservative nor Fox News anchor has convinced one single liberal to change their mind.
So here we are, once again stuck in a stalemate as 2020 rolls around.
Divided 50/50 down the middle.
And the only thing that we do know for sure is that NO ONE REALLY KNOWS ANYTHING FOR SURE.
I have a feeling this is our life. The life of America for a long long time to come.
No clear winners, and no clear losers. Only stress and anxiety, that is... for those who dare follow politics.
And its a wonder why anyone does.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
This district is R+14 - a 50/50 result is a disaster and the sign of a very unfavorable environment for Republicans. Anything less than double digits is probably bad news for them.

This result is also basically exactly what was predicted by the polls, so it seems they do in fact know what they are doing.
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
71,861
6,271
126
Are Americans any smarter than they were 4 years ago?
No they are not.
And nothing is gonna change.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
19,658
4,864
136
#2,3 are correct. Because of the district makeup and results of last election 50-50 bodes really poorly for Trump and the GOP.
 

tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
10,134
1,670
126
Well if this is anything like Trump's win back in '16, then this win is "a landslide of epic proportions mandating a huge comeback for the Repubs in 2020".

As an aside, I wonder how much of an effect gerrymandering had in this special election (if possible).
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
20,317
2,233
126
This district is R+14 - a 50/50 result is a disaster and the sign of a very unfavorable environment for Republicans. Anything less than double digits is probably bad news for them.

This result is also basically exactly what was predicted by the polls, so it seems they do in fact know what they are doing.
Especially after the national GOP and out of state fundraisers pumped $9 million into a single race for a 12 month term. Best they could do was win by 2 points in a +14 solid red district???
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
33,430
3,161
126
$9 million to barely win in a gerrymandered district to send a guy to Congress to be in the minority for half the term?
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
11,223
1,036
126
This district is R+14 - a 50/50 result is a disaster and the sign of a very unfavorable environment for Republicans. Anything less than double digits is probably bad news for them.

This result is also basically exactly what was predicted by the polls, so it seems they do in fact know what they are doing.
Not really. The Democrat candidate is a Marine veteran, former consultant and entrepreneur. He is what Republicans used to look like. His platform echoes things important to GOP voters: trade, immigration and national security.

Run someone like AOC in that district, and you’re probably right back to historic polling.
 
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ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
25,434
5,217
136
Not really. The Democrat candidate is a Marine veteran, former consultant and entrepreneur. He is what Republicans used to look like. His platform echoes things important to GOP voters: trade, immigration and national security.

Run someone like AOC in that district, and you’re probably right back to historic polling.
Oh? Why's that?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
63,798
10,996
126
Not really. The Democrat candidate is a Marine veteran, former consultant and entrepreneur. He is what Republicans used to look like. His platform echoes things important to GOP voters: trade, immigration and national security.

Run someone like AOC in that district, and you’re probably right back to historic polling.
Yes, really. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

By your logic when Connor Lamb (Cook PVI R+11) and Doug Jones won those weren’t disastrous results because Lamb was a Marine and both ran on very conservative platforms for Democrats. Guess what, they turned out to be exactly predicting a disaster for Republicans.

Candidate quality and match for a district matters. It doesn’t come even remotely close to mattering this much. This is an extremely bad result for Republicans.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
7,696
1,749
136
Not really. The Democrat candidate is a Marine veteran, former consultant and entrepreneur. He is what Republicans used to look like. His platform echoes things important to GOP voters: trade, immigration and national security.

Run someone like AOC in that district, and you’re probably right back to historic polling.
And run a guy like that in AOCs Brooklyn home district and he'd probably lose (out in the primary anyway.)

What does that prove? It's a big country and a big tent party?
Or was it CNN's fault for covering Trump's fake news weather maps?
 
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
24,848
4,563
126
Somehow being a Democrat and almost overcoming a double digit vote percentage in a really red district doesn't mean anything because the candidate was a moderate Democrat.

I'm guessing if Biden wins the presidency Johnny "both sides" will claim it as a win for Republicans because Biden is a moderate.

If you think there isn't a difference between any Republican and a moderate Democrat then I don't know what to tell you.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
11,223
1,036
126
Yes, really. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

By your logic when Connor Lamb (Cook PVI R+11) and Doug Jones won those weren’t disastrous results because Lamb was a Marine and both ran on very conservative platforms for Democrats. Guess what, they turned out to be exactly predicting a disaster for Republicans.

Candidate quality and match for a district matters. It doesn’t come even remotely close to mattering this much. This is an extremely bad result for Republicans.
Candidate quality does matter, as does where they stand on issues. Democrats running as Republican-lite in red leaning districts is indicative of other sentiments and priorities across the voting populace. Hard to solve say the gun violence issue when part of your coalition will favor a 2A hard line vote.

The only bad result is when you lose a seat. Will be interesting to see if Conor Lamb is able to hold his.
 

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