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Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

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FelixDeCat said:
Being that I like to trade BC mining stocks like RIOT and MARA, I watch the moment to moment moves of BC like a hawk. We will see what happens at 9:30 AM EST Monday. There might be a short covering /FOMO rally or the regular push down of prices may take hold.
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So it might go up and it might go down. Groundbreaking.
 
Train said:
So it might go up and it might go down. Groundbreaking.
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It did both. It hit a new high on Sunday, pulled back on Monday, and is trending upward on the much ballyhooed Coinbase IPO on Wednesday. After that I have a funny feeling it goes back down, but who knows.
 
FelixDeCat said:
It did both. It hit a new high on Sunday, pulled back on Monday, and is trending upward on the much ballyhooed Coinbase IPO on Wednesday. After that I have a funny feeling it goes back down, but who knows.
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lol... So it might go up and it might go down. Groundbreaking.
 
Train said:
lol... So it might go up and it might go down. Groundbreaking.
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If you are a day trader, these movements can be extremely lucrative on the stock market. And this is especially true when the whole market is flat but crypto continues to live in a bouncy castle.
 
Roger Wilco said:
If you are a day trader, these movements can be extremely lucrative on the stock market. And this is especially true when the whole market is flat but crypto continues to live in a bouncy castle.
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That would make sense if the silly predictions thrown around here had any correlation to reality at all.

Saying "it goes up and down" is pointless unless you can predict them with better accuracy than flipping a coin. It goes up and down every day.
 
Train said:
That would make sense if the silly predictions thrown around here had any correlation to reality at all.

Saying "it goes up and down" is pointless unless you can predict them with better accuracy than flipping a coin. It goes up and down every day.
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This is what successful day traders do, no? Some people are good at profiting on consistent volatility.


Also - Ether is looking strong today. I'm very interested to see how the ETH/BTC valuation evolves in the next few months.
 
Roger Wilco said:
If you are a day trader, these movements can be extremely lucrative on the stock market. And this is especially true when the whole market is flat but crypto continues to live in a bouncy castle.
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Trend is what matters. No one here is good enough to outperform via trading vs just holding crypto. Yes, you can take advantage of volatility. No, you guys are not good enough to outperform vs just holding. Big money is made by having conviction and going all in while in uptrend. Actively trading might seem better but after taxes, you will underperform vs just holding.
 
ponyo said:
Trend is what matters. No one here is good enough to outperform vs just holding crypto. Yes, you can take of volatility. No, you guys are not good enough to outperform vs just holding. Big money is made by having conviction and going all in while in uptrend. Actively trading might seem better but after taxes, you will underperform vs just holding.
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Do you think the same is true when trading crypto ETFs like RIOT and MARA? I believe this is the type of trading Felix was talking about, and that is more of what I am commenting on.
 
Roger Wilco said:
Do you think the same is true when trading crypto ETFs like RIOT and MARA? I believe this is the type of trading Felix was talking about, and that is more of what I am commenting on.
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Day trading is hard game. It doesn't matter if it's crypto, stocks, ETFs, commodities, futures, options, etc. Not saying you can't be successful but it's hard to outperform long term investing by trading short term. All the gamblers think they can do it. Reality is very few can.

All the people I know who's gotten wealthy off of crypto did it by holding. I don't know single person who actively day traded into crypto wealth. I'm sure there are people out there but most people bought crypto dips and held. US tax law is stacked against short term trader. Good trader will lose like 40.8% to federal taxes vs 23.8% or lower for longterm holders. That's huge disadvantage and difficult hurdle to overcome.
 
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I've noticed XRP rocketing up the past week or so. Just breathtaking moves in crypto space. So many young people are hitting the jackpot and becoming rich.
 
Roger Wilco said:
If you are a day trader, these movements can be extremely lucrative on the stock market. And this is especially true when the whole market is flat but crypto continues to live in a bouncy castle.
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Train is looking at long term trends. If you want to play that game, then yes, since 2009, BC is up. Duh!!!

I am looking at weekly patterns and micro trends. When I try to predict movements they are micro not macro. Macro is easy for everything from stocks to real estate and apparently even crypto. Up!

Micro is the hard part. What I said was true....BC tends to drift higher or lower on the weekends ... then countertrend on Monday when all participants and synthetic instruments are available. But that is generally speaking and not a rule.

From what I've read, the BC market seems to be waiting for the next "halving", where predictions of up to $400,000 BC are. Will it happen? I can't tell you because I do not know and do not have enough info to guess at it.

Also if it does happen will it be next year or 10 years from now?
 
Roger Wilco said:
Do you think the same is true when trading crypto ETFs like RIOT and MARA? I believe this is the type of trading Felix was talking about, and that is more of what I am commenting on.
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Riot has bit me in the ass before, be careful. They seem like they have a lot going for them. The announced recently BC holdings and growth that look ok, but shorts have a hard on for mining stocks, and are able to knock it and MARA down 20% easily. Conversely they also get caught in panic buy ins that cause equally big rallies.

It's the same old story - growth vs valuation. Just six months ago you could have bought RIOT or MARA for $3.50 each. Both went up exponentially since.
 
Train said:
Sorry but I am still firmly in the camp that you are pulling shit out of your ass.
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Except that he seems to be right. We seem to see larger price swings on weekends, that tend to correct themselves the following Monday. The exact times never seem to line up, though.
 
using the hourly graph on Coinbase,
This past weekend:
There was a "wild" swing upward saturday night. The opposite of a correction happened Monday.
Weekend Prior:
A $2600 drop over the weekend. Monday the 5th showed a $1400 recorvery, so a half correction?
Two weekends ago:
Pretty flat, but up slightly over the weekend. Monday the 29: Up sharply before 5 AM, before all the "instruments and participants are online" lol

So batting 0 for 3, maybe 0.5 for 3 if we are being generous these past three weekends.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Ok bro. Let's see you make a prediction. Let me guess, you can't because you don't know shit about anything.

😱
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I'm not trying to make a prediction, because that would make about as much sense as playing roulette at a casino. The only winner is the person collecting the transaction fees.
 
Train said:
I'm not trying to make a prediction, because that would make about as much sense as playing roulette at a casino. The only winner is the person collecting the transaction fees.
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The latter part is true, but that also includes the middle men making markets in Crypto exchanges as well. If you want to play the game, you have to place your money on the counter in exchange for the medium you believe will increase in value (crypto, real estate, gold, etc.).

But honestly though, if you are not trying to make a price prediction, why be so critical of me for doing so? You can simply ignore it.

This is my prediction - BT will rally until the Coin Base IPO concludes. It will consolidate downwards after the euphoria wears off, perhaps touching $59,900 (like it always does when beaking out) then who knows what it does after that. Fridays price will be in the low $60s or or high $50s.

I would be astonished if it makes it $70,000 this week and even more shocked if it stays there.
 
Noob questions:
1. Do you trust plaid with your login credentials to setup an exchange acct?
2. Do you wire funds or setup ACH?
3. Is there a bank that is easy to setup ACH xfer?

I've tried Schwab and Ally with 3 exchanges and they're not making it easy to take my money. I'm not thrilled with allowing Plaid to harvest my data nor wiring fees for each transaction.
 
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