World's top physicist and "climate change"

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bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,314
1,215
126
A fantastic quote of Freeman Dyson:
I'm not saying the warming doesn't cause problems, obviously it does. Obviously we should be trying to understand it. I'm saying that the problems are being grossly exaggerated. They take away money and attention from other problems that are much more urgent and important. Poverty, infectious diseases, public education and public health. Not to mention the preservation of living creatures on land and in the oceans

Think about it. The ocean fisheries are being depleted. Look at what has happened to them in just the past 30 years. It is staggering. While we spent untold billions on climate change in that period, we did not do a fucking thing about an essential food source for much of the world. We are now on the edge of a complete collapse of our ocean fisheries. If this should occur some time in the next 30 years, the result will be cataclysmic on a scale that is frankly terrifying. If we had been spending those billions over the past few decades on protecting the fisheries of the world, we would never have reached this predicament.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/magazine/27Tuna-t.html?_r=0
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,188
14,092
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Because if we actually used all the oil in the ground the total effect on the climate would be absolutely catastrophic. We have to solve the problem long, long before then.

As for what people want deniers to believe, we would just like people to accept overwhelming science and act accordingly. You wouldn't think that would be a lot to ask, but apparently it is.

This point bears special emphasis. Yes, it's OK if you still want to oppose taxes, regulations or other proposed solutions. Just stop denying the science for crying out loud. It's not like you're a traitor to some political ideology just because you think that when the vast majority of scientists working in a specific area are telling us something, that it seems prudent to believe them.

Climate change is a scientific issue before it becomes political. Let's try to not to confuse the two. The first step is assessing the science. The second is debating whatever policy proposals flow from the scientific conclusions. Too many people are approaching the first question with their mind too close to the second and it's making them look like fools.
 
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IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,949
133
106
we all know it's a eco-KOOK hoax based on rigged computer models. Classic case of garbage in garbage out computing. All designed to forward the liberal fable and mythology based agenda.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,332
28,607
136
A fantastic quote of Freeman Dyson:


Think about it. The ocean fisheries are being depleted. Look at what has happened to them in just the past 30 years. It is staggering. While we spent untold billions on climate change in that period, we did not do a fucking thing about an essential food source for much of the world. We are now on the edge of a complete collapse of our ocean fisheries. If this should occur some time in the next 30 years, the result will be cataclysmic on a scale that is frankly terrifying. If we had been spending those billions over the past few decades on protecting the fisheries of the world, we would never have reached this predicament.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/magazine/27Tuna-t.html?_r=0
What the fuck is this fish-hugging hippy shit? Do you even know how big the ocean is and how many fish are in it? Saying man can influence the amount of fish in the ocean is the height of arrogance. Put the joint down and use your head. All the scientists like this Dyson fellow are clearly paid shills for the liberal agenda trying to take money from my wallet for their hippy fish with all their predictions of doom and gloom when the reality is that the fish will never be depleted in our lifetime, probably not in my kids' lifetime, and hopefully not in my grandkids' lifetime. Where are the fish models? Are the fish models from 1970 even accurate? Why don't the satellite fish counts jive with the ship bucket counts? So convenient that the ship buckets pick up less fish than the much more accurate satellites. Do they even account for the fish that jump out of the buckets?
 
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John Connor

Lifer
Nov 30, 2012
22,840
617
121
I'm just as surprised at the climate data being constantly adjusted to fit the model. I'm also baffled as to what the believers actually want. The discussion is always about forcing "deniers" (a concept right out of propaganda 101) to admit that climate change is a near term man made disaster. The argument is superfluous, completely unnecessary because everyone knows oil is a finite resource. We will run out, and when we do is when the shit really hits the fan. Solving either problem solves both, so tackle the one that doesn't require a dog and pony show to sell, and questionable science to prove.


The U.S. is the leading resource of natural gas. Even when oil runs out we have that. Plus it's cleaner burning.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
Because if we actually used all the oil in the ground the total effect on the climate would be absolutely catastrophic. We have to solve the problem long, long before then.

As for what people want deniers to believe, we would just like people to accept overwhelming science and act accordingly. You wouldn't think that would be a lot to ask, but apparently it is.

Good thing we'll run out of the everything before we run out of oil.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,415
14,305
136
I hate this argument. Given that consumption always increases with efficiency, why exactly is being more efficient a bad thing?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,446
7,508
136
A fantastic quote of Freeman Dyson:


Think about it. The ocean fisheries are being depleted. Look at what has happened to them in just the past 30 years. It is staggering. While we spent untold billions on climate change in that period, we did not do a fucking thing about an essential food source for much of the world. We are now on the edge of a complete collapse of our ocean fisheries. If this should occur some time in the next 30 years, the result will be cataclysmic on a scale that is frankly terrifying. If we had been spending those billions over the past few decades on protecting the fisheries of the world, we would never have reached this predicament.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/magazine/27Tuna-t.html?_r=0

Tuna’s End

Well that's depressing.
 

John Connor

Lifer
Nov 30, 2012
22,840
617
121
Haha yes, clearly. People asking you to accept reality is so oppressive.


You should really rethink oppressive. Do you think this isn't some way of control? Gore said himself he would spend untold millions to recreate cites to conform to a "green standard."

Lets look at the facts. The industrial revolution created untold amounts of pollution and as technology got better machines got cleaner. This is fact. We are becoming a cleaner and cleaner socity minus developing countries, but I have read China is looking into clean technologies. Now that is nice and all, but you don't need to spew "global warming/climate change" down ones throat, shout "conform to this science over here." and then have the gull to say if you don't believe in "global warming/climate change" you don't believe in the scientific method or are a denier. Yeah, that sounds almost nazi-like speak if you ask me. Conform you lesser citizen, I am the EPA! :rolleyes: All the while there are hybrids and source after source of clean manufacturing and energy production.

No, this is all about control. In these Liberal/progressive idiot's minds they want ALL fossil fuel energy sources gone. Never mind the technology that makes it cleaner and the abundance of natural resources. It's a proven technology. How many "green jobs" did Obozo produce again in the name of "global warming/climate change?" :rolleyes:
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,101
5,640
126
You should really rethink oppressive. Do you think this isn't some way of control? Gore said himself he would spend untold millions to recreate cites to conform to a "green standard."

Lets look at the facts. The industrial revolution created untold amounts of pollution and as technology got better machines got cleaner. This is fact. We are becoming a cleaner and cleaner socity minus developing countries, but I have read China is looking into clean technologies. Now that is nice and all, but you don't need to spew "global warming/climate change" down ones throat, shout "conform to this science over here." and then have the gull to say if you don't believe in "global warming/climate change" you don't believe in the scientific method or are a denier. Yeah, that sounds almost nazi-like speak if you ask me. Conform you lesser citizen, I am the EPA! :rolleyes: All the while there are hybrids and source after source of clean manufacturing and energy production.

No, this is all about control. In these Liberal/progressive idiot's minds they want ALL fossil fuel energy sources gone. Never mind the technology that makes it cleaner and the abundance of natural resources. It's a proven technology. How many "green jobs" did Obozo produce again in the name of "global warming/climate change?" :rolleyes:

Why get "cleaner" if there is no reason to? Adjusting our technology to prevent the release of GHG is just another way to make our Technology more efficient and less damaging to the Environment we rely on.
 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,819
1,126
126
we all know it's a eco-KOOK hoax based on rigged computer models. Classic case of garbage in garbage out computing. All designed to forward the liberal fable and mythology based agenda.

Broken record stuck on tin foil idiot... Go suck some tailpipe.
 
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Brian Stirling

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2010
4,000
2
0
Broken record stuck on tin foil idiot... Go suck some tailpipe.

You know, some of the righties at least make an attempt at thoughtful analysis even if there viewpoint is in another universe, but this guy, IGBT, doesn't even bother to do that. Just the mutterings of a sick mind -- the kind of guy that even the local clan leader would say 'hey, maybe you shouldn't come back'

I've had it out with a few of the righties, and a few of the lefties for that matter, but there is zero point in confronting IGBT as it would be akin to talking to an oyster that's had it's pearl removed.


Brian
 

PowerEngineer

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 2001
3,552
726
136
Lets look at the facts. The industrial revolution created untold amounts of pollution and as technology got better machines got cleaner. This is fact. We are becoming a cleaner and cleaner socity minus developing countries, but I have read China is looking into clean technologies. Now that is nice and all, but you don't need to spew "global warming/climate change" down ones throat, shout "conform to this science over here." and then have the gull to say if you don't believe in "global warming/climate change" you don't believe in the scientific method or are a denier. Yeah, that sounds almost nazi-like speak if you ask me. Conform you lesser citizen, I am the EPA! :rolleyes: All the while there are hybrids and source after source of clean manufacturing and energy production.

In actual fact, the term "cleaner" has generally been used to describe improvements in the combustion (oxidizing) process that results in fewer harmful byproducts (e.g. CO, various nitrous oxides, mercury, etc.). The goal used to be completely "clean" combustion that produced only carbon dioxide and water vapor. So while you are technically correct that improving technology continues to make the burning of fossil fuels "cleaner", you should recognize that these improvements have very little (beyond fuel efficiency) impact on the amount of carbon released into the environment when fossil fuels are burned. This is actually the fact.

It's only when (or if) you realize that "clean" combustion of fossil fuels can have adverse impacts on our climate that you are incented to shift to other sources of "green" energy that don't release carbon into the environment. So the recognition of "global warming/climate change" is fundamental to making the right energy choices in the future.

As always, the best theories provided by science today can turn out to be wrong based on new information gathered in the future. That said, today's best scientific theories are still our best guide for understanding how the world works and what courses of action we should take. People who are ready to reject today's best scientific theories in favor of their own uniformed opinions or wishful thinking do not IMHO really understand or accept the scientific method.

It's almost humorous to read through threads like this one in which some people seem to think that the outcome of the political/conspiracy debate will determine the reality of climate change. Almost humorous until I remember that Mother Nature will not be swayed by any or our arguments. Our best hope is to pay attention to what Mother Nature is trying to tell us through the collection of data and the application of the scientific method.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
In actual fact, the term "cleaner" has generally been used to describe improvements in the combustion (oxidizing) process that results in fewer harmful byproducts (e.g. CO, various nitrous oxides, mercury, etc.). The goal used to be completely "clean" combustion that produced only carbon dioxide and water vapor. So while you are technically correct that improving technology continues to make the burning of fossil fuels "cleaner", you should recognize that these improvements have very little (beyond fuel efficiency) impact on the amount of carbon released into the environment when fossil fuels are burned. This is actually the fact.

It's only when (or if) you realize that "clean" combustion of fossil fuels can have adverse impacts on our climate that you are incented to shift to other sources of "green" energy that don't release carbon into the environment. So the recognition of "global warming/climate change" is fundamental to making the right energy choices in the future.

As always, the best theories provided by science today can turn out to be wrong based on new information gathered in the future. That said, today's best scientific theories are still our best guide for understanding how the world works and what courses of action we should take. People who are ready to reject today's best scientific theories in favor of their own uniformed opinions or wishful thinking do not IMHO really understand or accept the scientific method.

It's almost humorous to read through threads like this one in which some people seem to think that the outcome of the political/conspiracy debate will determine the reality of climate change. Almost humorous until I remember that Mother Nature will not be swayed by any or our arguments. Our best hope is to pay attention to what Mother Nature is trying to tell us through the collection of data and the application of the scientific method.

So 1,000 engineers drive to work for 2 years working on solar technology and burning fossil fuels. You guys use plastics and voltaic materials sourced from fossil fuels or energy from coal fired power plants. You send the design to China where they have practically zero regulations and they manufacture them and ship them 18,000 miles via cargo ship burning fossil fuel. You install it in your house and its zero carbon emissions.

Right.
 
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Nov 30, 2006
15,456
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Uhmm, this is pretty simple: someone who thought the Nazis weren't a threat probably isn't a great source to quote about how all the threats presented to the public are imaginary. It has nothing to do with whether he had character flaws or whatever else, he was just clearly and catastrophically wrong about probably the largest threat to the public of his time.

So no, absolutely no nuance here. Just the plain as day, slap in the face absurdity of quoting him about the issue.
And someone who thought deflation was imminent risk probably shouldn't be quoted regarding economics either (i.e. Krugman). Or is that somehow fundamentally different in your mind? Your keen ability to rationalize your blatant cognitive dissonance is quite a marvel to behold.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,055
48,056
136
And someone who thought deflation was imminent risk probably shouldn't be quoted regarding economics either (i.e. Krugman). Or is that somehow fundamentally different in your mind? Your keen ability to rationalize your blatant cognitive dissonance is quite a marvel to behold.

Uhmm, deflation was an imminent risk, and Krugman never said that deflation WOULD happen, just that we had dangerously low levels of inflation that would persist despite large deficits and zero interest rates and considering how damaging deflation is we needed to strongly err on the side of inflation. He was basically entirely correct, and that's basically an accepted fact.

This criticism is particularly bizarre considering no public economist has been more consistently right about inflation and monetary issues than Krugman. You're asking why we should listen to the guy who has been repeatedly right about inflation on the topic of inflation? Because he's been right so much. What you really might want to ask yourself is why you keep listening to people who have been repeatedly wrong.

Other than pride I cannot possibly imagine why you would want to defend quoting a guy about external threats who thought the fucking Nazis weren't a threat. That's about as big a miss as you can get.

So yeah, your cognitive dissonance here is remarkable. You try to attack a guy on inflation who was basically the most correct person in the world on the topic in order to defend a guy who was spectacularly wrong.

Sometimes I worry about you, friend.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
389
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Uhmm, deflation was an imminent risk, and Krugman never said that deflation WOULD happen, just that we had dangerously low levels of inflation that would persist despite large deficits and zero interest rates and considering how damaging deflation is we needed to strongly err on the side of inflation. He was basically entirely correct, and that's basically an accepted fact.

This criticism is particularly bizarre considering no public economist has been more consistently right about inflation and monetary issues than Krugman. You're asking why we should listen to the guy who has been repeatedly right about inflation on the topic of inflation? Because he's been right so much. What you really might want to ask yourself is why you keep listening to people who have been repeatedly wrong.

Other than pride I cannot possibly imagine why you would want to defend quoting a guy about external threats who thought the fucking Nazis weren't a threat. That's about as big a miss as you can get.

So yeah, your cognitive dissonance here is remarkable. You try to attack a guy on inflation who was basically the most correct person in the world on the topic in order to defend a guy who was spectacularly wrong.

Sometimes I worry about you, friend.
Krugman was wrong on deflation and publicly admitted he was wrong...your ability to spin is truly amazing. He was wrong on several other economic issues as well...yet you fabricate excuses for his errors, and then while rationalizing this out of one side of your mouth, you denigrate Menchen's credibility out he other side for holding an opinion that was later proved false. Your level of cognitive dissonance here is epic.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/the-decade-behind/?_r=0
 
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Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,681
13,435
146
UAH satellite data with more robust calculation method along with correction for orbital decay (diurnal drift adjustment).

V6-vs-v5.6-LT-1979-Mar2015.gif

This thing again? While you didn't say specifically why you posted it most people post this by itself to show that the climate just isn't changing much. Ok. Let's take a look and see if this one piece of data can be interpreted that way. Let's start by comparing it to the ground stations.

The argument presented is "Climate models failed".
They haven't... if we look at surface station data.

The real argument should be which temperature record should be trusted?
Because if the surface station data is allowed to stand, then we have a real problem.

Thank you for linking that Jasklas. For you let's try and answer whether either of those temperature records shouldn't be trusted.

From the above:

The Lower Troposphere is slowly heating, the surface atmosphere is heating faster.

Let see what the ocean is doing.

heat_content2000m.png


Since the atmospheric values are temperatures and the ocean values are energy lets convert each to the change in energy per cubic meter since 1980.

For the ocean, 0-2000m is about 55% of the depth of the ocean and we'll assume 55% of the total volume.

Dividing 24x10^22joules by ~723 million cubic kilometers and converting to cubic meters gives an ocean heat content change since 1980 of:

333,721J/M^3


For the surface stations it looks like about a .5C change since 1980 from J's chart above. If we approximate, 1 m^3 of dry air at the surface has gained since 1980:

604J/m^3

Now for the lower troposphere. From Docs UAH/RSS plot it looks like a change of .1C since 1980. Again if we approximate using dry air 1 m^3 has increased by:

120.7 J/m^3

So by altitude we have:

  • 121 J/m^3 Lower Troposphere
  • 604 J/m^3 Surface
  • 333,700 J/m^3 ocean

Or the surface atmosphere is warming 5 times faster than the lower troposphere as measured by UAH.

The ocean is warming 2750 times faster than the lower troposphere.

Add in the fact that over 90% of the retained energy is stored in the ocean and what the troposphere is doing doesn't seem to amount to a hill of beans by comparison.

GW_Components_500.jpg


Arguing that the UAH LT data shows a "pause" while ignoring the surface temperature and ocean is like arguing your spending is under control because your $8000 credit card bill was the same this month as last month while ignoring the $45000 Lexus you just leased and the 90,000 you lost to Guido betting on the Jets.

For Jasklas's question I actually don't think there's an overwhelming discrepancy between the UAH data, the ocean data, and the surface temperatures.

What they show us is an energy gradient. More energy retained at lower altitudes in denser fluids, (air and water ) with less energy retained at higher altitudes.

So does this make sense physically?

If we look at the distribution of insulating greenhouse gases I think it does.

co2-h2o-atmospheric-concentration.png


If we look at the height that the UAH/RSS TLT data comes from:

RSS_Weightings.png


We can see that it overlaps with the significant drop off in water vapor. With decreasing concentrations of greenhouse gases we would expect the amount of energy stored at a given altitude to decrease. Since 1980, with increasing amounts of CO2 and methane warming the atmosphere driving increasing amounts of water vapor we would expect to as increasing rates of energy storage. Which is what we see.

So while I think the UAH data is biased low I don't think it's necessarily completely incorrect.

(Interestingly there are only 3 actual microwave sensors on the satellites and TLT is not one of them. TLT is strictly a calculated value which tries to remove the cooling bias from the stratospheric part of TMT with varying degrees of success)


So to Doc what do you think the UAH LT data shows us? I think it gives us an idea at what altitude the atmosphere approaches equilibrium, agree, disagree?

To Jasklas, I think all three sets of data work with the current models of the atmosphere. What do you think?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,055
48,056
136
Krugman was wrong on deflation and publicly admitted he was wrong...your ability to spin is truly amazing.

Did you even bother to read his post? He said that instead of deflation we got very low inflation. Everyone else was predicting big time inflation. Basically other people were saying +10 (or really +20 or +100) and Krugman was saying -2. The answer ended up being 1. You want to call him wrong on that when he was by far the best predictor of what we ended up seeing?

You're basically trying to conflate an error of extent with an error of kind, which sounds an awful lot like motivated reasoning.

By the way, your constant attempts to accuse people who disagree with you of being dishonest or spinning or whatever is getting tiresome. Maybe everyone who tells you you're wrong isn't trying to lie to you. Maybe you just made a bad post.

He was wrong on several other economic issues as well...yet you fabricate excuses for his errors,

Fabricate excuses? Wut.

DSF, I am really starting to worry about you.

and then while rationalizing this out of one side of your mouth, you denigrate Menchen's credibility out he other side for holding an opinion that was later proved false. Your level of cognitive dissonance here is epic.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/the-decade-behind/?_r=0

I can't believe this has to be explained to you. People who make lots of predictions are invariably wrong sometimes. Krugman has been wrong many times, but in the time after the crisis he has gotten the big stuff right. That's why he's a good person to look to in order to understand the time after the crisis. Menchen got the big stuff on the topic of external threats utterly wrong. That's why he's a bad source for it.

I have no idea why you would choose this hill to die on. Think how twisted your logic has to be where you're trying to use Krugman being right in kind but not degree as a reason why it's perfectly fine to quote someone about external threats who thought the Nazis weren't a threat.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,446
7,508
136
To Jasklas, I think all three sets of data work with the current models of the atmosphere. What do you think?

I think you have an interesting argument, one that many people simply do not grasp. You'll find that skeptics widely regard Satellite Data as measuring the same temperature in a better way than Surface Stations. So when the pause shows up on that data, it reinforces our belief that Climate Sensitivity is exaggerated and helps bolster our skepticism.

Per our previous threads on this topic, you got me to consider Ocean Heat Content. That holds a few problems of convenience to say almost all the warming is absorbed at a location where our measurements are historically the most sparse. Even the reliability of Argo is questionable as a matter of "is it enough?" to accurately measure OHC. To imagine that we have accurately measured OHC prior to Argo... is just absolutely ludicrous and unacceptable to skeptics.

Joe Bastardi has also introduced us to another "data set", and that's the NCEP real time temps used for weather models. This is to challenge the accuracy of the Surface Station record, and to correlate with the Satellite Data. That the pause has been observed.

How could the pause be accurate? Ocean Cycles, PDO and AMO both seem to parallel the 80-90s warming period. PDO appeared to "flip" a decade ago leaving us with a real question of whether it was responsible for the pause. Skeptics believe a direct cause and effect was observed. That the natural variability of where the earth stores its heat...overwhelms and contradicts what are viewed as exaggerated claims of Climate Sensitivity.

Our challenge stands against the notion that a majority of observed warming is caused by CO2. The skeptical argument implies that the Ocean Cycles simply transferred more of the ocean's heat to both the Arctic Ocean and the continental landmasses, and CO2 had little to do with observed changes in the past century.

To continue running with this theory, the PDO needs to return negative after this El Nino. The pause in Satellite Data needs to continue, NCEP needs to continue dropping in temperature with each La Nina. Then when the AMO turns negative we need a meaningful drop in Satellite Data. What we have are falsifiable tests in observations that will play out in the next few years.

That is the status of the opposition you face today.

I myself am just waiting the next few years. By 2020 the scientific integrity of the pause will either be undeniable, or extinguished. Could be sooner. In the meantime there are already agreeable actions to take that bypass this whole CO2 argument in favor of energy development and security.

One way or another... 5 years from now these topics will be very different.