1. PCI-Express is not just a replacement for AGP, it is a upgrade to the whole PCI concept.
We are already seeing and reaching the limits of PCI bus speeds. AGP was invented in the first place
to accomodate the greater bandwidth requirements of video over the rest of the system. So the
idea that we would eventually need to increase PCI performance for the rest of the system has always
been there.
2. AGP will be an 8 year old technology this year.
And it took a couple of those years before it was considered "mature" enough to replace PCI across the board.
If PCI-E spreads at the same rate, it will be 2007 (the 10 year mark for AGP) before PCI-E is widespread
enough to become the de facto standard. If the industry is not on a big push to start implementing PCI-E
now, then we could end up with the same situation as the "local bus wars" of the early 90's (with EISA, Microchannel,
VESA and PCI all competing to replace the aging ISA slot).
3. The limits for technology are already being pushed on the high end.
There are a few technologies that come close to pushing the limits for speed of the PCI bus.
SATA, Ultra320 SCSI (and soon SAS), Firewire 800, & Gigabit Ethernet for example. It has come to the point
where the bus itself can become a bottleneck for the rest of the system, especially on the high end of computer
server/workstation usage. It is more cost-effective to design PCI-E in for all systems, than to keep it at a
premium for only the systems that may push the technology today.
4. AGP does not allow to efficient two way data transfer.
AGP was originally designed to send massive amounts of data from the system to the video card, but not the other way around.
GPUs have become sophisticated enough that there is serious consideration of ways to offload some instructions from the
CPU to this other engine, for many types of mathmatically intensive uses. For this, AGP becomes a serious bottleneck, where
PCI-E was designed to take this need into account.
5. PCI-E is a solution for signalling issues with trying to create faster connection speeds.
PCI-E, as a serial connection with less wires used to facilitate data transfer, also can compensate better with the variances
between FSB, CPU, Memory and devices timing issues that often affect parallel PCI connections, and plague overclockers.
FishTankX, if I'm not mistaken, burst transfer rates and command signalling do meet or exceed the current ATA-100 spec.
The transfer of data is only part (an important part) of what information needs to be sent from the device to the rest
of the system. The idea of always keeping the signal speed higher than the data rate is to allow room for processing
overhead that is needed to support things like S.M.A.R.T, error-correction, NCQ/TCQ, RAID, and other useful features
of such devices.