JEDIYoda, to some extent you have my opinion and I have mine, but on a more serious tone, you and I are trying to predict future and world opinions regarding future possible events.
If GWB&co were still in charge, I would say your arguments would have greater weight, but Obama has his own visions of a diplomatic stance for the mid-east, has so far straddle the fence on the dare to offend the US pro Israeli lobby question, but I suspect some future Israeli action will force Obama off that fence. With that defining Israeli event being something unlikely to be a pre-emtive Israeli bombing of Iran.
As it is Israelis defying both Obama and the rest of the world on halting ongoing Israeli settlement in the West Bank, Obama is also likely to keep pushing for a Palestinian State, we already know Obama is reaching out to Arab Muslims, I already mentioned that UN report likely to chastise Israel over its Gaza war crimes, and if Israel wishes to keep dragging its feet and frustrating Obama foreign policy, Israel is likely to find Obama is far less likely than GWB to have a blank check for Israel foreign policy.
If and when Israel forces Obama off his fence, and forces Obama to totally disavow some future Israeli action, we will know that I am more likely than you to be right. And Obama can do it quietly or publically. Just forgetting to veto some UN resolution against Israel can send that message loud and clear.
The other factor to mention is that the recent Iranian election protests which Obama hopes to profit from. Obama may have a funny way of showing that hope by staying the hell out, but its still, IMHO, the smartest course. And if any Israeli saber rattling tends to send Iranians rallying around the Mullah's, its again not likely to exactly amuse Obama.
Earth to JEDIYoda, GWB is no longer President so don't use the events of the past eight years as any guide. Obama has a lot on his plate now, but he still has ambitious overall plans, and if Obama does start to turn up the heat on Israel, he is likely to seek massive international support if he is forced to take on the pro Israel US lobby.