Why hasn't Edwards quit yet?
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Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
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Well, I think he definately wanted to go through the SC primary, his home state.
Even if he loses badly there I think he should wait until Super Tuesday, which is just a few days afterward.
I suspose there is some possibility that the race will be so tight he could have enough electoral college votes to be a kind of "King Maker".
Maybe be a VP, or get some high-level cabinet position etc.
Fern
Even if he loses badly there I think he should wait until Super Tuesday, which is just a few days afterward.
I suspose there is some possibility that the race will be so tight he could have enough electoral college votes to be a kind of "King Maker".
Maybe be a VP, or get some high-level cabinet position etc.
Fern
He's sucking up so someone adds him as a possible VP choice.
And he knows his votes will go to Obama, which would destroy the Clinton machine.
John Edwards is the best friend the Clintons ever had right now.
And he knows his votes will go to Obama, which would destroy the Clinton machine.
John Edwards is the best friend the Clintons ever had right now.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
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While we have not seen one for awhile, the deadlocked convention scenario always makes for some weird political calculations. And right now, the way Obama and Hillary are going at each other, each may end up unacceptable to the enemy camp and Edwards could be a compromise candidate. And he may also be angling for the VP spot which he got with Kerry. And Kerry sadly muzzled Edwards and lost.
Plus next up is South Carolina, almost home turf for Edwards. And who can forget, most recent democratic Presidents have southern roots because if the dems can carry the South,
the repubs can't win unless the Southern democrat totally alienates the rest of the base. And when it comes to negatives, he has less than Hillary and maybe less than Obama.
Plus next up is South Carolina, almost home turf for Edwards. And who can forget, most recent democratic Presidents have southern roots because if the dems can carry the South,
the repubs can't win unless the Southern democrat totally alienates the rest of the base. And when it comes to negatives, he has less than Hillary and maybe less than Obama.
ego.
either real front runner would have to be insane to pick Edwards as their VP. he's less than useless... he got *crushed* by Cheney in the VP debate and he couldn't even carry his home state for Kerry.
either real front runner would have to be insane to pick Edwards as their VP. he's less than useless... he got *crushed* by Cheney in the VP debate and he couldn't even carry his home state for Kerry.
hah. I'll admit that I kind of am.
I'd just as soon see anyone who had anything to do with the '04 D campaign get deported to France.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
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Focus of this article:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/91458
Fate of Edwards' supporters could be key
Obama, Clinton eager to scoop up Edwards' supporters if he drops out of Democratic race
AP
Updated: 1:52 PM ET Jan 11, 2008
Democrat John Edwards placed second in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and faces even longer odds of pulling off a win in upcoming states.
But he still attracts the support of as many as 20 percent of Democratic voters in national polls. And where those Edwardians turn next if their first choice for president exits the race could well be the determining factor in who claims the Democratic nomination.
"Every time somebody drops out of a race when it's close, where they go is important," says Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not working for any candidate. And Edwards' supporters, she says, "are even more priceless than your average jewel."
That's because this year's race is so competitive, and Edwards' supporters are viewed as loyal and dependable voters who will actually turn out on Election Day.
Barack Obama, with his outsider's message of change, looks like a logical second choice for those attracted to Edwards' pledge to fight special interests and corporate greed.
Indeed, Edwards voters in Iowa favored Obama over Clinton as their second choice by a nearly two-to-one margin in caucus-night surveys. And Edwards supporters in New Hampshire reported they had a far more favorable impression of Obama than of Clinton, according election-night surveys there.
Donald Wood, a 52-year-old one-time Edwards supporter from Merrill, Wis., fits that profile. Now that Edwards' presidential prospects look dim, he's leaning toward Obama.
"I think it's time for this country to have a change," Wood said in explaining his new interest in Obama. "With the troubles and everything that the Clintons had before, I don't think the country needs those problems any more."
Consultant Backus says that while Edwards voters are sure to find some of the same qualities that they like when they take a look at Obama, "there is definitely an opening for Hillary Clinton to exploit" as she pivots toward economic issues that hold appeal for populist-oriented Edwards supporters.
Democratic pollster Peter Hart said Obama has the easier sell to Edwards voters because of "a greater overlap of convergence" in the two candidates' messages, but he nonetheless views Edwards' voters as up for grabs if he drops out.
"People are supporting John Edwards for a lot of different reasons," Hart said. "It's not just based on an issue or a set of ideas. So I think it's a jump ball."
Unlike some past elections, where Democratic constituencies were sharply divided over candidates _ Jimmy Carter vs. Teddy Kennedy for example _ this time all the leading candidates are favorably viewed by a wide swath of the party's voters, Hart said. That makes it easier for people to shift from one candidate to another.
On the Democratic side, he said, "there just isn't the rigid ideology that often shapes a race."
Imogene Ragan, a 61-year-old from Huntington Beach, Calif., showed it's more than message that will determine where voters' loyalties lie. She said she's backing Edwards because of "his presence" and because he seems to be honest. She said she might shift to Clinton if Edwards leaves the race, in part because Obama "seems more like a politician than a person."
A mid-December survey of voters nationally conducted for the AP and Yahoo News found that Edwards supporters split about evenly between Clinton and Obama when asked which candidate would be their second choice. Clinton and Obama each were the second choices of about 27 percent of Edwards supporters. Another 28 percent were unsure who would be their second choice, and the rest were thinly scattered among other candidates.
Edwards draws much of his support from people over 50 and those without a college education, the survey found. His voters are more likely to be men than women, and a third are evangelical Christians _ a much larger share than among Clinton or Obama voters.
Steve Jarding, a lecturer at Harvard who ran Edwards' political action committee for a year, said Edwards voters won't automatically switch to Obama even if Obama's message is perceived to be more in synch with that of Edwards. The deciding factor instead may be which candidate is seen as more likely to prevail in November, he said.
"When you support a candidate and they don't win, there's just as much chance that then you say, 'I'll go with somebody who can win. I went with my heart, now I want to go with my head,'" Jarding said.
Two decades ago, Jarding said, voters rarely cast their ballots based on a strategic choice about who was most electable. Now, he says, particularly after chafing through eight years of the Bush administration and feeling burned by the loss of John Kerry in 2004, Democrats are saying, "We've got to win."
The allure of the Edwards voters will not be lost on Clinton or Obama. No doubt either would love to have Edwards' endorsement if the time comes, although it's not clear how much weight that carries with voters.
For now, the two must tread carefully to court the Edwardians without offending them while their candidate still is in the race.
"You don't want to start negotiations before the patient's taken off life support," said Jarding.
___
AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/91458© 2008 AP
http://www.newsweek.com/id/91458
Fate of Edwards' supporters could be key
Obama, Clinton eager to scoop up Edwards' supporters if he drops out of Democratic race
AP
Updated: 1:52 PM ET Jan 11, 2008
Democrat John Edwards placed second in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and faces even longer odds of pulling off a win in upcoming states.
But he still attracts the support of as many as 20 percent of Democratic voters in national polls. And where those Edwardians turn next if their first choice for president exits the race could well be the determining factor in who claims the Democratic nomination.
"Every time somebody drops out of a race when it's close, where they go is important," says Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not working for any candidate. And Edwards' supporters, she says, "are even more priceless than your average jewel."
That's because this year's race is so competitive, and Edwards' supporters are viewed as loyal and dependable voters who will actually turn out on Election Day.
Barack Obama, with his outsider's message of change, looks like a logical second choice for those attracted to Edwards' pledge to fight special interests and corporate greed.
Indeed, Edwards voters in Iowa favored Obama over Clinton as their second choice by a nearly two-to-one margin in caucus-night surveys. And Edwards supporters in New Hampshire reported they had a far more favorable impression of Obama than of Clinton, according election-night surveys there.
Donald Wood, a 52-year-old one-time Edwards supporter from Merrill, Wis., fits that profile. Now that Edwards' presidential prospects look dim, he's leaning toward Obama.
"I think it's time for this country to have a change," Wood said in explaining his new interest in Obama. "With the troubles and everything that the Clintons had before, I don't think the country needs those problems any more."
Consultant Backus says that while Edwards voters are sure to find some of the same qualities that they like when they take a look at Obama, "there is definitely an opening for Hillary Clinton to exploit" as she pivots toward economic issues that hold appeal for populist-oriented Edwards supporters.
Democratic pollster Peter Hart said Obama has the easier sell to Edwards voters because of "a greater overlap of convergence" in the two candidates' messages, but he nonetheless views Edwards' voters as up for grabs if he drops out.
"People are supporting John Edwards for a lot of different reasons," Hart said. "It's not just based on an issue or a set of ideas. So I think it's a jump ball."
Unlike some past elections, where Democratic constituencies were sharply divided over candidates _ Jimmy Carter vs. Teddy Kennedy for example _ this time all the leading candidates are favorably viewed by a wide swath of the party's voters, Hart said. That makes it easier for people to shift from one candidate to another.
On the Democratic side, he said, "there just isn't the rigid ideology that often shapes a race."
Imogene Ragan, a 61-year-old from Huntington Beach, Calif., showed it's more than message that will determine where voters' loyalties lie. She said she's backing Edwards because of "his presence" and because he seems to be honest. She said she might shift to Clinton if Edwards leaves the race, in part because Obama "seems more like a politician than a person."
A mid-December survey of voters nationally conducted for the AP and Yahoo News found that Edwards supporters split about evenly between Clinton and Obama when asked which candidate would be their second choice. Clinton and Obama each were the second choices of about 27 percent of Edwards supporters. Another 28 percent were unsure who would be their second choice, and the rest were thinly scattered among other candidates.
Edwards draws much of his support from people over 50 and those without a college education, the survey found. His voters are more likely to be men than women, and a third are evangelical Christians _ a much larger share than among Clinton or Obama voters.
Steve Jarding, a lecturer at Harvard who ran Edwards' political action committee for a year, said Edwards voters won't automatically switch to Obama even if Obama's message is perceived to be more in synch with that of Edwards. The deciding factor instead may be which candidate is seen as more likely to prevail in November, he said.
"When you support a candidate and they don't win, there's just as much chance that then you say, 'I'll go with somebody who can win. I went with my heart, now I want to go with my head,'" Jarding said.
Two decades ago, Jarding said, voters rarely cast their ballots based on a strategic choice about who was most electable. Now, he says, particularly after chafing through eight years of the Bush administration and feeling burned by the loss of John Kerry in 2004, Democrats are saying, "We've got to win."
The allure of the Edwards voters will not be lost on Clinton or Obama. No doubt either would love to have Edwards' endorsement if the time comes, although it's not clear how much weight that carries with voters.
For now, the two must tread carefully to court the Edwardians without offending them while their candidate still is in the race.
"You don't want to start negotiations before the patient's taken off life support," said Jarding.
___
AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/91458© 2008 AP
Topic: Why hasn't Edwards quit yet?
Edwards, like Obama, trounces the living bee-jebus out of any repub candidate excepting McCain .... where they are each basicly even with him and HRC trails by 4-5%
I believe that the repubs know that, too, and that is why in the Florida debate they 'annointed'' HRC as the dim candidate and railed on her. If the race includes either Edwards or Obama, the Fat Lady sings ... early
And as noted above - I think the general consensus is Edwards is taking votes away from Obama - not HRC - and that by staying in the race he prevents HRC from gaining any exceptional momentum through the primaries ...
Edwards, like Obama, trounces the living bee-jebus out of any repub candidate excepting McCain .... where they are each basicly even with him and HRC trails by 4-5%
I believe that the repubs know that, too, and that is why in the Florida debate they 'annointed'' HRC as the dim candidate and railed on her. If the race includes either Edwards or Obama, the Fat Lady sings ... early
And as noted above - I think the general consensus is Edwards is taking votes away from Obama - not HRC - and that by staying in the race he prevents HRC from gaining any exceptional momentum through the primaries ...
theeedude
Lifer
- Feb 5, 2006
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Edwards is sticking around for the VP pick. Once someone offers him the job, he'll get out. Hillary won't because she wants him in the race to split the demagogue loving vote with Obama. Obama could offer him the VP slot, but then we'll have two empty suits in love with the sound of their own voice on the ticket in November. So he's staying put to squeeze out his last 15 minutes of fame for a while.
Starbuck1975
Lifer
- Jan 6, 2005
- 14,698
- 1,909
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Edwards is sticking around because there is no clear front runner, and he still has a stake in the outcome so long as he continues to earn delegates.
At this point, it is obvious that Clinton would never choose Obama as her VP, and vice versa...they can no longer form a power ticket given the harsh words exchanged between their respective campaigns.
Edwards is staging himself for a VP nod from either candidate...and is in a position to essentially hand either candidate the nomination if there is no clear winner going into the DNC.
At this point, it is obvious that Clinton would never choose Obama as her VP, and vice versa...they can no longer form a power ticket given the harsh words exchanged between their respective campaigns.
Edwards is staging himself for a VP nod from either candidate...and is in a position to essentially hand either candidate the nomination if there is no clear winner going into the DNC.
If Hillary and Barack keep shotting missiles at each other and stay off message, he will look like the one statesment who can actually do what we want.
As much as I like Obama, he lost some points in my book in the SC debate for flinging mud at Hillary. Hillary already had no points so she can't really go any lower in my opinion.
I like Edwards a lot, and I actually hope he has a strong showing in SC. He is keeping the issues as the most important part of this election.
As much as I like Obama, he lost some points in my book in the SC debate for flinging mud at Hillary. Hillary already had no points so she can't really go any lower in my opinion.
I like Edwards a lot, and I actually hope he has a strong showing in SC. He is keeping the issues as the most important part of this election.
this primary is going to be over by the time we wake up on February 6th, god willing.
there's not nearly enough time for Edwards to emerge as the "sleeper" candidate after 45%+ delegates have been allocated on a single day.
it took 6 years of non-stop campaigning in Iowa to get *2nd* place and he hasn't had a strong showing anywhere else.
there's not nearly enough time for Edwards to emerge as the "sleeper" candidate after 45%+ delegates have been allocated on a single day.
it took 6 years of non-stop campaigning in Iowa to get *2nd* place and he hasn't had a strong showing anywhere else.
theeedude
Lifer
- Feb 5, 2006
- 35,787
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- 126
That is exactly right, Hillary got Obama to go negative and show his true colors, and shed his holier than thou facade. Hillary can take the political hits from him, but he's an empty suit, take away the above the fray pretense and he got nothing left to campaign on. So yeah, it hurt her, but it hurt him even more. The Clintons are brilliant at political jiujitsu.
Edwards is the only candidate left expressing progressive values that I see. I still am for him. I don't want him dropping out yet. He has *a chance*, if a small one, and he's an important messenger for the progressives, IMO.
I can see a small chance for people to tire of Hillary and Obama and turn to the alternative. Unfortunately, the media's exclusion of him seems to be resulting in the public not paying attention to him.
I can see a small chance for people to tire of Hillary and Obama and turn to the alternative. Unfortunately, the media's exclusion of him seems to be resulting in the public not paying attention to him.
Any one of the candidates would be out of their damn minds to appoint Edwards VP. That guy is a joke, and would do nothing to enhance a ticket.
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,161
- 7
- 0
Because of the way the Democrat delegates are handed out there is a good chance that with Edwards in the race no one gets to the 50% majority needed to win the nomination outright. This allows Edwards to be king maker as it were.
Essentially Hillary and Obama will both take turns kissing his ass trying to get him to throw his delegates behind them. This gives Edwards a lot of power in the convention.
Of course there are those who say that once it is obvious that Edwards can?t win a lot of his supporters will leave him and vote for Hillary or Obama. So even if he stays in the race till the end his vote count could go down drastically.
Notice the current delgate count:
Iowa gave 16 to Obama 15 to Clinton and 14 to Edwards
Nevada gave 12 to Clinton and 13 to Obama
Take away super Delegates and the race is 36 Hillary, 38 Obama and 18 Edwards.
Essentially Hillary and Obama will both take turns kissing his ass trying to get him to throw his delegates behind them. This gives Edwards a lot of power in the convention.
Of course there are those who say that once it is obvious that Edwards can?t win a lot of his supporters will leave him and vote for Hillary or Obama. So even if he stays in the race till the end his vote count could go down drastically.
Notice the current delgate count:
Iowa gave 16 to Obama 15 to Clinton and 14 to Edwards
Nevada gave 12 to Clinton and 13 to Obama
Take away super Delegates and the race is 36 Hillary, 38 Obama and 18 Edwards.
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
As basically centrists democrats, there is little difference between Hillary, Obama, or Edwards. And if there is a recession, no republican will stand a chance. As it is, according to polls, McCain is the only one on the GOP side who stands a chance as it is. And worse case scenario for the GOP, they nominate McCain and shortly thereafter, Iraq and the surge melts down.
Backing GWB to the hilt in 07 may backfire on the GOP big time.
The pressure is still on the GOP to winnow down the candidates. The Dems are already to three, the GOP is still at five, and I don't see Ron Paul dropping out at all.
Backing GWB to the hilt in 07 may backfire on the GOP big time.
The pressure is still on the GOP to winnow down the candidates. The Dems are already to three, the GOP is still at five, and I don't see Ron Paul dropping out at all.
perhaps, this is the reason why.
attorney general slot for a potential endorsement of Obama?
Right now, Clinton and Edwards split the white voters in South Carolina. Obama wins the vast majority of black voters but fewer and fewer white voters. If Edwards dropped out now, most of his potential voters could go to Clinton. If he were to stay in for a bit longer, Obama could win SC and then perhaps pick up Edwards' endorsement before Super Tuesday.
It's the "best" strategy Obama has left since the Clintons pulled Obama down from his above the fray campaign.
attorney general slot for a potential endorsement of Obama?
Right now, Clinton and Edwards split the white voters in South Carolina. Obama wins the vast majority of black voters but fewer and fewer white voters. If Edwards dropped out now, most of his potential voters could go to Clinton. If he were to stay in for a bit longer, Obama could win SC and then perhaps pick up Edwards' endorsement before Super Tuesday.
It's the "best" strategy Obama has left since the Clintons pulled Obama down from his above the fray campaign.
ultimatebob
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2001
- 25,134
- 2,450
- 126
With Obama and Clinton pounding each other into the ground, he just might have a chance to pick up some states on Super Tuesday.
Either way, it's looking like no candidate will have enough delegates to win the party nomination outright. That's going to give Edwards a LOT of clout when convention time comes around...
Either way, it's looking like no candidate will have enough delegates to win the party nomination outright. That's going to give Edwards a LOT of clout when convention time comes around...
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