Why are Americans down on the economy?

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
Next guess??

Are you going to refute my point or just ignore it like Vic and not post anything meaningful? Do you have any facts to refute mine?

What's to refute when we don't actually disagree on the facts, and so all you do is fling personal attacks against me so that you can pretend that we do for the sake of your ego? I've noticed that as a consistent trend with you. Typical of an e-thug short pushing for a market dump for personal profit to insist that any interpretation of market facts other than their own of dire doom-and-gloom is a refutation of the facts themselves.
The best part about you, LK, is that you've become the McOwen of the housing market. You bitch that prices are too high, then chicken little that they're going down. Even after what a total jackass you've been, I couldn't have possibly imagined a worse punishment.

Yeah, I am "shorting" the market. What's funny is that I am not shorting anything. I am long on certain classes of bonds right now, but I am not shorting anything. Nice assumption though.

I really don't get your last point, I am not facing any punishment. If anything my theories are being proven correct the whole time.

Of course... no one is ever wrong... until later.

For the last time, I predicted the housing market here long before you ever did. Any search would show it (well, if the search worked right, but that's another issue). Even back in the biggest boom years (like 2003), I was volunteering my time and cautioning people here about not buying too high and how to get the right financing (i.e. financing they could actually afford). And I never made one dime off it or sold one single loan here. That's why they made me elite. Because of my strong professional ethics.
You've just never bothered to look, and now you like to pretend that you've proven me wrong with your constant unscrupulous (and completely unfounded) personal attacks against my professional ethics. "You and your ilk, and I "should be wearing stripes," etc. How many times do we have to go through this? And how long are you going to continue this pretending?
But oh well... God forbid anyone try to calm the FUD stampede you're driving on. Just like I tried to calm the irrational exhuberence as best I could a couple of years ago, now I caution against the panic that you seem dead-set on spreading.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: rchiu


Totally agree. Stock market is not a true indicator on how the economy is doing. The Wall St. is awashed in money because of all the M&A activities. All the investment bankers are getting like 100% bonus. All those activities are nothing but creating money out of thin air, well mostly, not to mention all the debt and leverage people use to fuel those activities that add to the profits of Wall St.. Lot of talks on synergies and value creations after M&A and LBO but you rarely see those things realized. With all the speculations on M&A and other activities, that's why the stock market is high right now.

What's happening is that people in certain sector are benefiting from those activities right now. But the rest of America have to deal with slowing house market and broken sub-prime leading system and the problems that comes with it.

Not saying the economy is really bad, but the stock market is definitely not an indicator of how the economy is doing.

Not all bankers are getting 100% bonuses and nobody is creating "money out of thin air". I cannot stand this saying. Nobody but the Fed can create money. Everything purchased has to be purchased with money, even LBO debt. That purchase is backed by the assets of the company and the future cashflows, which aren't "created".

What I meant is those "value creations" talked about by all those mergers. For example, the $3 billion goodwill from AMD/ATI merger, basically the $$ AMD overpaid ATI believing merger will create that value. Sure AMD borrowed billions to pay for those goodwills. But like I said, that is not real $$ until it is realized and with it way it is going, it is most likely not gonna happen. From that activity, investment bankers helping M&A got their share, bankers underwriting the borrowing go their share. All based on this "value creation" that may not be realized. To me, that's creating out of thin air.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Gotta love HS's assertions about home prices- of course there are seemingly inexpensive areas- that's because there aren't any jobs in those areas, and wages are depressed as a result. Peachy if you're retired and don't have to work, otherwise a non sequiter.

One of my coworkers was raised on a farm in (very) rural N Dakota. He tells horror stories about how the neighboring farmhouses had to be torn down to keep out meth labs when the senior farmers passed on or needed to live in environments that provide care... Few people want to live there, because there aren't any jobs.. When the time comes, he'd probably pay somebody to live in his parents' place until it's time for him to retire... if he thought they were reliable... Increasing energy prices will make outlying homes even less desirable over time, too- no transit, high priced gasoline...

We've just begun to see the cracks in the edifice of sky-high real estate. Most people couldn't afford to buy the home they live in, today, if they had no equity to carry... Equity for today's buyers may be very elusive as prices decline and interest rates rise... The example of late 70's interest rates is a false analogy, as prices were rising, and those high rates were only temporary. As rates fell, refinancing was very attractive, available, and sensible, too, because they wouldn't loan you 125% of value on the basis of hype.... Lenders actually held mortgages, rather than acting as pass-thrus...

Approximately half of the US population owns no stocks, HS, and a large part of the rest don't enjoy direct ownership or control- only shares in mutual funds in their 401K's or a vestment in a traditional pension plan... I know people who had to come out of retirement when the value of their holdings crumpled in 2002... others whose hopes for that were dashed, and haven't yet recovered...

If nothing else, the rapid proliferation of payday loan outfits should indicate that things aren't quite so peachy for people at the lower end... they obviously fill a need in the market, otherwise they'd be gone...

Wow.

Someone else that sees what I have been seeing happening for years and said so on here.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

When the have not group is big enough of used to have's you will see a full scale revolution against the rich and the Government they own.

It's that simple and it's happening right in front of our eyes.

There isn't going to be a revolution because Americans have taken the notion of personal responsibility and meritocracy to an almost religiously-held dogmatic extreme. Those formerly middle class Americans will not blame their government and the nation's economic system, rather, they'll blame themselves for not being good enough--for not having worked hard enough, for not having interviewed well enough, for not having enough education, for not having chosen the right fields, etc.

A good analogy would be a person who has been dragged into a death camp who blames himself for his predicament. "If only I weren't Jewish." "If only I had blond hair." "I deserve to die, it's my fault."

That's a pretty grim picture you paint for the last days of America.

 

[Vic]

I'd also like to point out that jumping in claiming to "predict" the housing bubble at this time is like "predicting" that the sun will rise... yesterday. We're already almost 2 years into this. I can even point to exactly when it started (beyond the obvious that the boom made it inevitable). Mortgage rates spiked up suddenly in Q405 and Ameriquest hedged the wrong way on a multi-billion dollar pool (then they got hit with a $325 million fine, but that's another issue, and one I wasn't sad to see happen). Notice that Danica Patrick drives for GoDaddy now. And that Rangers Ballpark is no longer Ameriquest Field. That -- and the fact that mortgage rates still haven't gone back down to where they were during the boom -- is what finally (and belatedly IMO) started the ball rolling. Not that it's quite affected my market yet, it's still up double-digits year over year, which is a shame because it's pretty much impossible for a 1st-time homebuyer to get a house anymore.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Gotta love HS's assertions about home prices- of course there are seemingly inexpensive areas- that's because there aren't any jobs in those areas, and wages are depressed as a result. Peachy if you're retired and don't have to work, otherwise a non sequiter.

One of my coworkers was raised on a farm in (very) rural N Dakota. He tells horror stories about how the neighboring farmhouses had to be torn down to keep out meth labs when the senior farmers passed on or needed to live in environments that provide care... Few people want to live there, because there aren't any jobs.. When the time comes, he'd probably pay somebody to live in his parents' place until it's time for him to retire... if he thought they were reliable... Increasing energy prices will make outlying homes even less desirable over time, too- no transit, high priced gasoline...

We've just begun to see the cracks in the edifice of sky-high real estate. Most people couldn't afford to buy the home they live in, today, if they had no equity to carry... Equity for today's buyers may be very elusive as prices decline and interest rates rise... The example of late 70's interest rates is a false analogy, as prices were rising, and those high rates were only temporary. As rates fell, refinancing was very attractive, available, and sensible, too, because they wouldn't loan you 125% of value on the basis of hype.... Lenders actually held mortgages, rather than acting as pass-thrus...

Approximately half of the US population owns no stocks, HS, and a large part of the rest don't enjoy direct ownership or control- only shares in mutual funds in their 401K's or a vestment in a traditional pension plan... I know people who had to come out of retirement when the value of their holdings crumpled in 2002... others whose hopes for that were dashed, and haven't yet recovered...

If nothing else, the rapid proliferation of payday loan outfits should indicate that things aren't quite so peachy for people at the lower end... they obviously fill a need in the market, otherwise they'd be gone...

Wow.

Someone else that sees what I have been seeing happening for years and said so on here.

I rest my case.

 

[Jhhnn]

From vic-

As if it's so hard to find and point out the negative!

Quite true, particularly when one is merely sniping at what others have posted w/o offering anything of their own... well, other than ridicule... not exactly a positive contribution, but pretty much a risk free exercise in name calling and smug self promotion...

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Vic
I'd also like to point out that jumping in claiming to "predict" the housing bubble at this time is like "predicting" that the sun will rise... yesterday. We're already almost 2 years into this. I can even point to exactly when it started (beyond the obvious that the boom made it inevitable). Mortgage rates spiked up suddenly in Q405 and Ameriquest hedged the wrong way on a multi-billion dollar pool (then they got hit with a $325 million fine, but that's another issue, and one I wasn't sad to see happen). Notice that Danica Patrick drives for GoDaddy now. And that Rangers Ballpark is no longer Ameriquest Field. That -- and the fact that mortgage rates still haven't gone back down to where they were during the boom -- is what finally (and belatedly IMO) started the ball rolling. Not that it's quite affected my market yet, it's still up double-digits year over year, which is a shame because

it's pretty much impossible for a 1st-time homebuyer to get a house anymore.

Originally posted by: Vic
I rest my case.

Wow, it was convoluted but the admission that the economy is shit finally comes out.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
From vic-

As if it's so hard to find and point out the negative!

Quite true, particularly when one is merely sniping at what others have posted w/o offering anything of their own... well, other than ridicule... not exactly a positive contribution, but pretty much a risk free exercise in name calling and smug self promotion...

You haven't offered anything. You're just ranting an all-negative picture, with no tolerance for the possibility of anything positive, nor do you attempt to offer potentially positive solutions even when prodded to do so. Simple fact: that says more about you than it does the actual state of our economy. Sorry if you take that as a personal attack.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Vic
I'd also like to point out that jumping in claiming to "predict" the housing bubble at this time is like "predicting" that the sun will rise... yesterday. We're already almost 2 years into this. I can even point to exactly when it started (beyond the obvious that the boom made it inevitable). Mortgage rates spiked up suddenly in Q405 and Ameriquest hedged the wrong way on a multi-billion dollar pool (then they got hit with a $325 million fine, but that's another issue, and one I wasn't sad to see happen). Notice that Danica Patrick drives for GoDaddy now. And that Rangers Ballpark is no longer Ameriquest Field. That -- and the fact that mortgage rates still haven't gone back down to where they were during the boom -- is what finally (and belatedly IMO) started the ball rolling. Not that it's quite affected my market yet, it's still up double-digits year over year, which is a shame because

it's pretty much impossible for a 1st-time homebuyer to get a house anymore.

Originally posted by: Vic
I rest my case.

Wow, it was convoluted but the admission that the economy is shit finally comes out.

It's not the first time I've said it. However, existing homeowners have more equity than ever. And hey, your crowd has been johnny-on-the-spot with the close-the-barn-door-after-the-horse-already-got-out mortgage legislations, which has pretty slammed the door shut on 1st-time homebuyers.

 

[jackace]

I personally would be happy if our country (the people) and our leaders would stop thinking we are some how above what has happened in the past. If we could just stop repeating the same mistakes of the past and if we could stop giving up our freedoms given to us by our countries founding fathers I would be happy.

 

[HombrePequeno]

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
Dawn, i would agree that WIN was utterly moronic (but that was Gerry Ford...utterly moronic). Yes, Carter did inherit a bad situation. Yes, he also had to deal with pretty stark increases in oil prices, but he also messed up the money supply, the prime rate, and kept taxes high. He helped a bad economy get worse. I remember buying my first home when Carter was President....I got an assumable 13% mortage and I was so happy...I thought that was a good rate. When we sold the house about a year later, the assumable 13% mortgage was a MAJOR selling point, because interest rates had gone up to 16-18%!!

That was a sucky economy.....

NOTHING about the current economy even comes close to those days.

Those are nominal interest rates, not real interest rates. The best thing Carter did for the economy was to help get Paul Volcker into the position of Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Without that inflation would have still been sky high and the interest rates you would be paying would be even higher still.

Sure, his fiscal policy sucked but he did pave the way for a stable, low inflationary monetary policy.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

When the have not group is big enough of used to have's you will see a full scale revolution against the rich and the Government they own.

It's that simple and it's happening right in front of our eyes.

There isn't going to be a revolution because Americans have taken the notion of personal responsibility and meritocracy to an almost religiously-held dogmatic extreme. Those formerly middle class Americans will not blame their government and the nation's economic system, rather, they'll blame themselves for not being good enough--for not having worked hard enough, for not having interviewed well enough, for not having enough education, for not having chosen the right fields, etc.

A good analogy would be a person who has been dragged into a death camp who blames himself for his predicament. "If only I weren't Jewish." "If only I had blond hair." "I deserve to die, it's my fault."

That's a pretty grim picture you paint for the last days of America.

Curse those middle class bourgies! How can they not see that it's all the Illuminati's doing?

 

[heartsurgeon]

ure, his fiscal policy sucked but he did pave the way for a stable, low inflationary monetary policy.

if by "pave the way" you mean help Reagan get elected President, I couldn't agree more!

 

[Arkaign]

Vic tells it like it is

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Arkaign
Vic tells it like it is

Yes, he does, for the rich Republican way.

 

[1EZduzit]

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon

ure, his fiscal policy sucked but he did pave the way for a stable, low inflationary monetary policy.

if by "pave the way" you mean help Reagan get elected President, I couldn't agree more!

LOL, who is Bush is paving the way for? Hillary and universal health care?

"Boy the way Glen Miller played,
songs that made the hit parade,
guys like us we had it made,
those were the days,
and you know where you were then,
girls were girls and men were men,
mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again,
didn't need no welfare states,
everybody pulled his weight,
gee our old Lasalle ran great,
those were the days!"

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Arkaign
Vic tells it like it is

Yeah, without any proof or back up.

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon

ure, his fiscal policy sucked but he did pave the way for a stable, low inflationary monetary policy.

if by "pave the way" you mean help Reagan get elected President, I couldn't agree more!

LOL, when Bush fails you look back to Reagan. Get a life kid.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Hacp
Over the last 4 years, real wages have stagnated. That is, only 4% of the country has seen any increase in wages. That 4% is the country's elite. The economy might be up, but only 4% are seeing any effects of it.

You're flat out wrong. In my industry, specifically IT/network, average wages have increased I would be willing to bet 30% in the last 3 years. After the dot com bust, which included the closing or bankruptcy of most of the major telecoms, I had to work non-IT jobs. Then finally in 2003, I got a network specific job in Oklahoma City that payed 27k/yr. Mind you, I havent made that little since the late 80's. I combed through 6 or 7 industry specific job boards, flew all over the country for industry "recruiting conventions", as well as checking the job boards of over 50 companies twice/week. I probably spent 20 hrs/week just looking for work. Jobs were far and few between. Fast forward 4 years-

Last year I had 3 job offers from 7 resumes submitted. All paid more than I had ever made. You can pick any job board and there are jobs in just about any metropolitan area you want. Dozens of jobs. All paying well.

All this crap about how bad we're doing, specifically tech jobs "being shipped offshore" is utter bullshit.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

When the have not group is big enough of used to have's you will see a full scale revolution against the rich and the Government they own.

It's that simple and it's happening right in front of our eyes.

There isn't going to be a revolution because Americans have taken the notion of personal responsibility and meritocracy to an almost religiously-held dogmatic extreme. Those formerly middle class Americans will not blame their government and the nation's economic system, rather, they'll blame themselves for not being good enough--for not having worked hard enough, for not having interviewed well enough, for not having enough education, for not having chosen the right fields, etc.

A good analogy would be a person who has been dragged into a death camp who blames himself for his predicament. "If only I weren't Jewish." "If only I had blond hair." "I deserve to die, it's my fault."

That's a pretty grim picture you paint for the last days of America.

No more grim than yours.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Arkaign
Vic tells it like it is

Yes, he does, for the rich Republican way.

Yeah, except I'm a middle-class Democratic moderate.

But hey! everybody knows there's a lot of rich Republicans living in Portland, OR and driving Subarus!

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Arkaign
Vic tells it like it is

Yes, he does, for the rich Republican way.

Yeah, except I'm a middle-class Democratic moderate.

But hey! everybody knows there's a lot of rich Republicans living in Portland, OR and driving Subarus!

It must make you cringe knowing you vote for the same person as Dave come presidential elections...

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Hacp
Over the last 4 years, real wages have stagnated. That is, only 4% of the country has seen any increase in wages. That 4% is the country's elite. The economy might be up, but only 4% are seeing any effects of it.

You're flat out wrong. In my industry, specifically IT/network, average wages have increased I would be willing to bet 30% in the last 3 years.

Sorry, you would flat out lose. Your personal experience is irrelevant to the big picture. There are always some who do better than average and some who do worse. It's the big picture that matters. IT salaries have increased a bit more than average, but still barely ahead of inflation and they are not representative of all salaries. Hacp is absolutely correct.

After the dot com bust, which included the closing or bankruptcy of most of the major telecoms, I had to work non-IT jobs. Then finally in 2003, I got a network specific job in Oklahoma City that payed 27k/yr. Mind you, I havent made that little since the late 80's. I combed through 6 or 7 industry specific job boards, flew all over the country for industry "recruiting conventions", as well as checking the job boards of over 50 companies twice/week. I probably spent 20 hrs/week just looking for work. Jobs were far and few between. Fast forward 4 years-

Last year I had 3 job offers from 7 resumes submitted. All paid more than I had ever made. You can pick any job board and there are jobs in just about any metropolitan area you want. Dozens of jobs. All paying well.

All this crap about how bad we're doing, specifically tech jobs "being shipped offshore" is utter bullshit.

The plural of "anecdote" is NOT "data". It's easy to make rapid salary gains initially, as one moves from an entry-level postion to something requiring experience. Good entry-level IT opportunities are scarce due to the glut of experienced people looking for work. (Why pay a noob $40K for entry-level work when you have a stack of resumes from experienced people who need the job? Pay $27K and make them prove themselves.) It's simple supply and demand, aggravated in part by the FACT that many American tech jobs have been offshored. Not all, obviously, but tens of thousands.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Hacp
Over the last 4 years, real wages have stagnated. That is, only 4% of the country has seen any increase in wages. That 4% is the country's elite. The economy might be up, but only 4% are seeing any effects of it.

You're flat out wrong. In my industry, specifically IT/network, average wages have increased I would be willing to bet 30% in the last 3 years.

Sorry, you would flat out lose. Your personal experience is irrelevant to the big picture. There are always some who do better than average and some who do worse. It's the big picture that matters. IT salaries have increased a bit more than average, but still barely ahead of inflation and they are not representative of all salaries. Hacp is absolutely correct.

After the dot com bust, which included the closing or bankruptcy of most of the major telecoms, I had to work non-IT jobs. Then finally in 2003, I got a network specific job in Oklahoma City that payed 27k/yr. Mind you, I havent made that little since the late 80's. I combed through 6 or 7 industry specific job boards, flew all over the country for industry "recruiting conventions", as well as checking the job boards of over 50 companies twice/week. I probably spent 20 hrs/week just looking for work. Jobs were far and few between. Fast forward 4 years-

Last year I had 3 job offers from 7 resumes submitted. All paid more than I had ever made. You can pick any job board and there are jobs in just about any metropolitan area you want. Dozens of jobs. All paying well.

All this crap about how bad we're doing, specifically tech jobs "being shipped offshore" is utter bullshit.

The plural of "anecdote" is NOT "data". It's easy to make rapid salary gains initially, as one moves from an entry-level postion to something requiring experience. Good entry-level IT opportunities are scarce due to the glut of experienced people looking for work. (Why pay a noob $40K for entry-level work when you have a stack of resumes from experienced people who need the job? Pay $27K and make them prove themselves.) It's simple supply and demand, aggravated in part by the FACT that many American tech jobs have been offshored. Not all, obviously, but tens of thousands.

eh

Im not talkingt about entry level jobs. I've never looked for an entry level job. Specifically in IT, the job market, in general, is as good as it was before the dot com bust. Where's the "data" you speak so highly of disputing what I've said? Data, as Im sure you know because of your intelligence, is subjective. Did you happen to notice where I said "In my industry, specifically IT/network"? Did you? Wages and opportunities are far greater now than 5-7 years ago. Period. Since you brought up the example of entry level jobs (again, something I know nothing about) maybe you are right. But for mid-career (7+ years exp + multiple certs) you obviously know not of what you speak.

edit: here ya go skippy:

In numbers that haven't been matched since 2001, the U.S. tech industry added 140,000 jobs in the first half of 2006, according to a report released Sept. 26 by the Washington, D.C.-based AeA (formerly the American Electronics Association).

Information Technology (IT) is the fastest growing sector in the economy with a 68% increase in output growth rate projected between 2002 and 2012. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Just use Google. I think Ive proven my point.