Originally posted by: mshan
Anyone know when this rumor first surfaced?
I googled for presidential futures market and see a recent spike up and down:
http://www.intrade.com/# (click on McCain graph for enlarged view).
I would think that most of those traders are trying to make money on day to day fluctuations, rather than betting on whom they think will eventually win the actual election, but something as devastating as that would have presumably spiked up the McCain percentage and left it there?
(I am also wondering whether release of such a tape, say after Labor Day, would only serve to reinforce already pre-held positions, rather than drastically changing the playing field?)