Who here as made the leap to an EV?

[repoman0]

Maybe I don't know any better from driving mediocre cars (with typical 0-60 times on the order of 8-10 seconds) in largely urban and suburban environments, but I've never had an issue merging onto a highway with short entrance ramps (like CT-15, the Southern State Parkway in NY, or a few other spots in the NE). Seems like super acceleration is one of those could be nice to have features, but 90% of the time you're just going to be driving normal.

Cars crossed the “too fast for public roads” threshold decades ago. 0-60 in 3 seconds is unsafe on public roads whenever there are people around, including merging onto a highway, because it is unpredictable to others and most people don’t have the quick reaction times needed to handle it. The last thing we need is a bunch of people who barely passed their 15 minute driving test reaching 60 mph nearly as fast as an F1 car.

Coming from someone who regularly races a ~4 second car at far higher speeds on private tracks. I never need anywhere close to that much power driving normally (including on poorly designed or outdated roads like CT-15) and don’t use even half of it when other cars or pedestrians are around.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Bought a couple ICE vehicles over the last few years when prices weren't absolutely goofballs to replace the wife and my ancient college cars. EVs were just sort of coming into their own but were still far too new in terms of mass market tech and still way behind ICE in terms of infrastructure.

Here we are several years on and while the tech has gotten more mature in a big way, we're still wayyyy wayyy behind on infrastructure. Would an EV meet ~95% of my driving needs? Yes. But if I'm already paying way more for the vehicle unfront it better be 100% of my needs.

 

[bbhaag]

Not yet but it's going to happen this summer. We just bought a Ford Maverick for my wife and that will be our long trip/vacation vehicle. We will have it paid off by next summer so the Ford Mustang Mach-E GT that I will order this summer should arrive by the time the Maverick is paid off.

The Ford Maverick experience taught me that when it comes to ordering a Ford do it fast and do it early otherwise you will be waiting awhile for whatever you order to arrive especially since I'll be ordering a Mach-E GT.

 

[Stopsignhank]

I am curious who on the thread is combining an EV with home solar.

I have a plug in hybrid and have solar on the roof.

 

[RichieZ]

yes, but i have two cars

 

[Red Squirrel]

If I got an EV I'd definitely be upgrading my solar setup. I only have 400w right now, since there's really not much room elsewhere other than shed roof. House roof is too hard to get to for removing snow, even with a long pole, just too awkward of an angle to try to get to it.

However it occurred to me a while back that if I build a tall enough pergola on my deck, I can actually put a big flat array on it and it should get sun pretty much all day, and it should also not be too hard to access for snow removal. Freezing rain and wet snow can be a huge issue though, once it creates a crust there's not much you can do. But it still produces somewhat. Even if I don't get an EV I may do this anyway at some point.

 

[Viper GTS]

In most states all you really need is enough solar to let you do time of use metering with near zero on peak use. Unless you have extremely expensive power or live in a state with SRECs to help the payoff you are going to have a hard time making the math work vs just buying off peak kWh.

I have a tiny array that doesn’t fully cover my on peak use, but it offsets enough that combined with my typical ~800 kWh/month of EV charging drives my average kWh price down to around $0.12. My EV charging is done at around $0.09.

Viper GTS

 

[Kaido]

I hear you, but I’m not doing that. Either it comes with a wheel or I look elsewhere. I will miss first year availability if I do get one. I’m way down the list. Getting one earlier would be a nice problem to have though.

Unless they have Autopilot for trailers, I can't imagine trying to back up a hitched item (trailer, jetski, boat, camper, etc.) with a yoke...sounds like a disaster waiting to happen lol

 

[Muadib]

Unless they have Autopilot for trailers, I can't imagine trying to back up a hitched item (trailer, jetski, boat, camper, etc.) with a yoke...sounds like a disaster waiting to happen lol

That's something I hadn't considered, and of course you are right.

 

[Torn Mind]

For suburbanites with a steady job... and a driveway, it's a seamless, if superior transition. Not a enclosed garage because smoke detector codes are on the books with the based on the behavior of gas vehicles; if gas vehicles went spontaneously into flames due a spark being close to fuel vapors...such a requirement would have been implemented years ago.

 

[Pacfanweb]

A lot of this is predicated on there essentially being no change to existing battery tech over decades, which is kind of a ridiculous proposition.

Yes, there will be change and improvements. No doubt.

But ICE cars today easily last 20 years. EV's 20 years from now might be close to where ICE cars are now. Might be.
What about today's EV's, though? Today's ICE cars, many of those will still be around and viable transportation for folks who can't afford new or "newer" cars.

How many of them are going to even want a 2020 EV, 10-15-20 years from now? They are relatively new. They are outrageously expensively to replace the batteries. That will go down some, but I doubt it's going to get to the price level of replacing an engine in an ICE car, where you can simply get a used one from a salvage yard and swap it.

They have a niche market now. And that's how it is going to remain, probably for decades. Sure, there's advancements and all, but those advancements will only apply to the new vehicles. In 2030, you're not going to be able to put a 2030 battery in your 2018 Tesla and get whatever benefits that 12 years of tech advancement have gained. At least, not for an affordable price, you can about rest assured of that.

So my concern is, the folks who buy used...very used, cars. What are they going to drive?
A person who is buying a 2010 vehicle right now and expecting it to last for a few years, are those same types of people in 2030 going to be able to buy a 2020 EV and keep it running?

Remember, it took damn near 100 years of cars being around before a 20 year old car could be considered "somewhat reliable".

I worked at a Ford dealership starting in 1988. We didn't have 1978 cars coming into the shop for repairs back then, much less 1968's. VERY rarely. No shops did. Cars were mostly crap at 10 years old, sooner than that, really.
Today, you see 15-20 year old vehicles in dealership shops pretty frequently. There's a big reason for that:

Cars have improved dramatically in the last 25 years. In 2000, you couldn't take out a loan on a used 1990 car at any bank, no matter the mileage or condition. You couldn't buy an extended service plan on one, either...certainly not for any decent length of time, anyway. Maybe a 12 month powertrain-only plan if you were lucky back then.

Now? Most any credit union will not only finance a 2015 vehicle, they'll finance it for 6-7-8 years.
Reason is, they've done the math and they know the cars will last...they're playing the odds, remember. You can buy a 3-5 year ESP on them as well.

When will we reach that point for EV's? I don't know, but I'd say the current crop of EV's will not do it.

So if EV tech becomes equal to ICE tech in reliability, repair cost and refueling by say, 2030....it'll be 15-20 years from then that they filter down into the "lower buck" car buyers.

When I say "EV is not ready for prime time", all this is what I mean. I mean "EV will not become the primary means of transportation for a LONG time to come".

And this is just talking about retail consumers and their personal transportation, not fleets and businesses.

It's got a LONG way to go.

 

[Viper GTS]

I don’t think it’s going to be anywhere near as long as you think. Demand is there, capacity will resolve itself.

Also if you still think battery replacements are a thing to worry about you haven’t been paying attention. Aside from Leafs, batteries have not been a big wear item for anyone. The small segment of the BEV fleet that is out of powertrain warranty does have aftermarket support - You can send your Leaf off to have its battery refreshed by a 3rd party for far less than a new battery.

It’s just not turned out to be the issue some people thought it would be, and as the fleet reaches the end of factory warranties the aftermarket will fill the gaps. You don’t see the infrastructure yet because it’s not needed, nearly every BEV on the road is still under warranty.

Viper GTS

 

[Commodus]

Yes, there will be change and improvements. No doubt.

But ICE cars today easily last 20 years. EV's 20 years from now might be close to where ICE cars are now. Might be.
What about today's EV's, though? Today's ICE cars, many of those will still be around and viable transportation for folks who can't afford new or "newer" cars.

How many of them are going to even want a 2020 EV, 10-15-20 years from now? They are relatively new. They are outrageously expensively to replace the batteries. That will go down some, but I doubt it's going to get to the price level of replacing an engine in an ICE car, where you can simply get a used one from a salvage yard and swap it.

They have a niche market now. And that's how it is going to remain, probably for decades. Sure, there's advancements and all, but those advancements will only apply to the new vehicles. In 2030, you're not going to be able to put a 2030 battery in your 2018 Tesla and get whatever benefits that 12 years of tech advancement have gained. At least, not for an affordable price, you can about rest assured of that.

So my concern is, the folks who buy used...very used, cars. What are they going to drive?
A person who is buying a 2010 vehicle right now and expecting it to last for a few years, are those same types of people in 2030 going to be able to buy a 2020 EV and keep it running?

Remember, it took damn near 100 years of cars being around before a 20 year old car could be considered "somewhat reliable".

I worked at a Ford dealership starting in 1988. We didn't have 1978 cars coming into the shop for repairs back then, much less 1968's. VERY rarely. No shops did. Cars were mostly crap at 10 years old, sooner than that, really.
Today, you see 15-20 year old vehicles in dealership shops pretty frequently. There's a big reason for that:

Cars have improved dramatically in the last 25 years. In 2000, you couldn't take out a loan on a used 1990 car at any bank, no matter the mileage or condition. You couldn't buy an extended service plan on one, either...certainly not for any decent length of time, anyway. Maybe a 12 month powertrain-only plan if you were lucky back then.

Now? Most any credit union will not only finance a 2015 vehicle, they'll finance it for 6-7-8 years.
Reason is, they've done the math and they know the cars will last...they're playing the odds, remember. You can buy a 3-5 year ESP on them as well.

When will we reach that point for EV's? I don't know, but I'd say the current crop of EV's will not do it.

So if EV tech becomes equal to ICE tech in reliability, repair cost and refueling by say, 2030....it'll be 15-20 years from then that they filter down into the "lower buck" car buyers.

When I say "EV is not ready for prime time", all this is what I mean. I mean "EV will not become the primary means of transportation for a LONG time to come".

And this is just talking about retail consumers and their personal transportation, not fleets and businesses.

It's got a LONG way to go.

This is why I'm wondering if it wouldn't be smarter to lease EVs in the near future. You can have the benefits without paying as much or having to sell the car when you're ready to trade up (important when used car prices will likely have cooled off by then).

And the upside of the rapid change is that, as good as EVs are now, they'll probably get that much better. You probably won't have to buy a high-end luxury EV to get 400-plus miles of range, and might not have to wait 40 minutes to get enough of a charge for a long drive home.

 

[Viper GTS]

They aren’t going to get dramatically better any time soon, they’re just going to get cheaper. Early adopters have been funding scale and development by buying Tesla and Rivian level products, it’s the Equinox and Explorer and Lightning that are going to sell big volume and reach price points the majority can afford.

Short of a massive new battery technology (years away minimum) we will be looking at single digit energy density improvements, 800V architecture going mainstream (new Hyundai/Kia today), and (optimistically) proliferation of quad motor drivetrains. Performance has been tire limited for years, bigger batteries and more powerful motors aren’t going to change that. None of these things are going to be major changes for most people. Even 800V is only going to save most people a few minutes a few times a year. For anyone who charges every night at home they’ll never notice the difference.

These technologies are largely mature unless you are someone who wants the absolute best and right now there’s nothing on the horizon that is a big leap. Price and supply are the new frontier.

Viper GTS

 

[MrSquished]

The proposed bans on ICE cars, that does not include hybrids?

 

[jpiniero]

The proposed bans on ICE cars, that does not include hybrids?

I'd have to think they would be included. Hybrids are still ICE cars, they just get better fuel economy.

 

[Commodus]

They aren’t going to get dramatically better any time soon, they’re just going to get cheaper. Early adopters have been funding scale and development by buying Tesla and Rivian level products, it’s the Equinox and Explorer and Lightning that are going to sell big volume and reach price points the majority can afford.

Short of a massive new battery technology (years away minimum) we will be looking at single digit energy density improvements, 800V architecture going mainstream (new Hyundai/Kia today), and (optimistically) proliferation of quad motor drivetrains. Performance has been tire limited for years, bigger batteries and more powerful motors aren’t going to change that. None of these things are going to be major changes for most people. Even 800V is only going to save most people a few minutes a few times a year. For anyone who charges every night at home they’ll never notice the difference.

These technologies are largely mature unless you are someone who wants the absolute best and right now there’s nothing on the horizon that is a big leap. Price and supply are the new frontier.

Viper GTS

I'll admit I'm optimistic, but cheaper would be a good start. If the $30K Equinox EV still gets decent range, you're going to see a lot of suburbanites buying it... if just to get away from volatile gas prices.

Range is more of an obstacle for folks like me. My wife and I would love to go camping in the wilderness, but we don't want to have to worry about where we'd charge if we need to top up for the drive home. That and some city-to-city jaunts can be particularly long, and it's much nicer if you don't have to stop for 40 minutes just to complete the journey.

 

[Commodus]

The proposed bans on ICE cars, that does not include hybrids?

All the officially announced bans (usually at the state level, or at the national level in other countries) bar sales of cars with ICE engines, full stop. They may have a transition period that allows hybrids for a while, but after a certain point it's all zero-emissions cars like EVs.

 

[K1052]

All the officially announced bans (usually at the state level, or at the national level in other countries) bar sales of cars with ICE engines, full stop. They may have a transition period that allows hybrids for a while, but after a certain point it's all zero-emissions cars like EVs.

I know California would still allow some PHEVs after 2035.

 

[Viper GTS]

I'll admit I'm optimistic, but cheaper would be a good start. If the $30K Equinox EV still gets decent range, you're going to see a lot of suburbanites buying it... if just to get away from volatile gas prices.

Range is more of an obstacle for folks like me. My wife and I would love to go camping in the wilderness, but we don't want to have to worry about where we'd charge if we need to top up for the drive home. That and some city-to-city jaunts can be particularly long, and it's much nicer if you don't have to stop for 40 minutes just to complete the journey.

Generally speaking people aren’t stopping for 40 minutes. That would only be necessary in charging deserts (which absolutely exist, to be clear). If you’re using your battery correctly and arriving at DCFC locations at sub 10 percent SoC you can charge in excess of 1000 MPH and add significant range in very little time:

Testing Tesla Model 3 ‘V3’ Supercharging time from 2% – 100% state of charge [Video]

How much time does it take a Long Range Tesla Model 3 battery pack to be charged from almost an empty state of charge (SoC) to nearly 100%? The answer lies in the video that follows below where the owner takes us to a Tesla Supercharger V3 station located at the LINQ hotel in Las Vegas, NV...

evannex.com

In this example 144 miles of range were added in less than 12 minutes. These speeds are very real, any 3/Y can do it at a V3 supercharger. Many CCS cars can do it too at the right 250+ KW charger. For both Tesla and other vehicles some basic knowledge is needed to get these results as not all locations are capable of 250-350 KW charging. You just have to know to watch for it and choose the right places. Also, for CCS you may have to contend with the unaware blocking high output chargers in cars that can’t take advantage of it. If I ever have to DCFC my Mini, for example, I’m smart enough not to plug my 50kw capable car into a 350kw stall. Many aren’t aware.

In my experience the charge times in the fat part of the curve align well with biological needs - I don’t have a desire to drive more than about 3 hours without getting out of the car, hitting a restroom, getting a drink, etc. The time required to do those things puts enough range into the car to do it again.

The only times I have sat for 40 minutes to charge were when I didn’t yet have charging at home, and once when I intentionally overcharged because I wanted to show a friend what a full battery performance Tesla was like.

YMMV obviously depending on where you live and the trips you take, but public charging is not something most people have to do regularly and it is generally not something they are doing for 40 minutes at a time.

Viper GTS

 

[jpiniero]

but public charging is not something most people have to do regularly

Don't you think that has to be the case for it to go completely mainstream? Having to install a private charger just for the car drives the cost of switching that much higher.

 

[Viper GTS]

Don't you think that has to be the case for it to go completely mainstream? Having to install a private charger just for the car drives the cost of switching that much higher.

Speaking as someone who had to do it for a month and a half while waiting for my electrician to have availability, public charging sucks and I would not use it for my daily use even if it were free. It’s fine for out of the ordinary travel needs, but it’s dreadful to rely on that as your primary source of power.

This specific scenario (no charger at home) is going to be a significant barrier to adoption for some people. In this case the charge time arguments are very valid - I had a V2 supercharger a mile from my house and was spending about 90 minutes a week there to do my 54 mile daily commute in winter. It was not fun. Now, with L2 at home, charge times matter to me only when traveling.

The ideal situation is that anyone who can charge at home does. The cost for this will vary a lot depending on people’s specific situation, but IMO if this cost is a problem for you you probably shouldn’t be buying an EV right now. I have friends who have spent as little as $50 (DIY NEMA 14-50 run from a garage that already had a sub panel). Many cars ship with a charger that does dual duty as a 120v trickle charger and with the proper feed cable and outlet can do up to ~30A. Many people (myself included) end up installing a fixed EVSE for 48A or higher. My install and EVSE were about $1500 total, and I will leave it behind when I sell my house. So this house is now prepared to charge nearly any EV in the US up to its max L2 rate. Exceptions would be older Teslas that can take 72A, and now the trucks - Lightning, Hummer, and Rivian all can do 80A L2 so they would only get 48A off my house.

Older houses with ancient service will likely cost a lot more, and for anyone who doesn’t own the house they live in or (even worse) apartments we need alternatives.

A lot of this will probably end up as legislation, much like the home energy efficiency requirements being placed on rental properties in some jurisdictions. Without being forced most landlords are simply never going to improve energy efficiency because it doesn’t benefit them directly. EV charging will likely be similar. Without these kinds of mandates all of the cost savings will go to the already wealthy, which I suppose is about how it usually works.

Viper GTS

 

[sze5003]

With the amount of apartment buildings that have been put up in my area of the suburbs, just in the past 1-2 years that I've moved here to be closer to work, only 1 had access to public chargers and those were Tesla superchargers, across the street in a Giant parking lot..which were always filled daily.

I'm really surprised that the other 4-5 complexes which are fairly new, did not have any chargers installed. Most of these people living there can't find a house or can't afford to pay the exorbitant prices as of late. I do see several EV's(Tesla's specifically) in these complexes but I have no idea where they charge.

They are probably the ones waiting a while at other public chargers. I've always wanted to catch one of my neighbors and ask them what they do about their charging situation.

 

[Commodus]

With the amount of apartment buildings that have been put up in my area of the suburbs, just in the past 1-2 years that I've moved here to be closer to work, only 1 had access to public chargers and those were Tesla superchargers, across the street in a Giant parking lot..which were always filled daily.

I'm really surprised that the other 4-5 complexes which are fairly new, did not have any chargers installed. Most of these people living there can't find a house or can't afford to pay the exorbitant prices as of late. I do see several EV's(Tesla's specifically) in these complexes but I have no idea where they charge.

They are probably the ones waiting a while at other public chargers. I've always wanted to catch one of my neighbors and ask them what they do about their charging situation.

I've seen a few new apartments where chargers were available, but usually it's a handful of spots in the garage. The real challenge is providing chargers for everyone without ridiculous costs, or an overload if many people are topping up at the same time.

 

[Zeze]

Just remember, the biggest financial depressant for Americans are people stupidly spending $$$$ on brand new cars every few years.