A lot of this is predicated on there essentially being no change to existing battery tech over decades, which is kind of a ridiculous proposition.
Yes, there will be change and improvements. No doubt.
But ICE cars today easily last 20 years. EV's 20 years from now might be close to where ICE cars are now. Might be.
What about today's EV's, though? Today's ICE cars, many of those will still be around and viable transportation for folks who can't afford new or "newer" cars.
How many of them are going to even want a 2020 EV, 10-15-20 years from now? They are relatively new. They are outrageously expensively to replace the batteries. That will go down some, but I doubt it's going to get to the price level of replacing an engine in an ICE car, where you can simply get a used one from a salvage yard and swap it.
They have a niche market now. And that's how it is going to remain, probably for decades. Sure, there's advancements and all, but those advancements will only apply to the new vehicles. In 2030, you're not going to be able to put a 2030 battery in your 2018 Tesla and get whatever benefits that 12 years of tech advancement have gained. At least, not for an affordable price, you can about rest assured of that.
So my concern is, the folks who buy used...very used, cars. What are they going to drive?
A person who is buying a 2010 vehicle right now and expecting it to last for a few years, are those same types of people in 2030 going to be able to buy a 2020 EV and keep it running?
Remember, it took damn near 100 years of cars being around before a 20 year old car could be considered "somewhat reliable".
I worked at a Ford dealership starting in 1988. We didn't have 1978 cars coming into the shop for repairs back then, much less 1968's. VERY rarely. No shops did. Cars were mostly crap at 10 years old, sooner than that, really.
Today, you see 15-20 year old vehicles in dealership shops pretty frequently. There's a big reason for that:
Cars have improved dramatically in the last 25 years. In 2000, you couldn't take out a loan on a used 1990 car at any bank, no matter the mileage or condition. You couldn't buy an extended service plan on one, either...certainly not for any decent length of time, anyway. Maybe a 12 month powertrain-only plan if you were lucky back then.
Now? Most any credit union will not only finance a 2015 vehicle, they'll finance it for 6-7-8 years.
Reason is, they've done the math and they know the cars will last...they're playing the odds, remember. You can buy a 3-5 year ESP on them as well.
When will we reach that point for EV's? I don't know, but I'd say the current crop of EV's will not do it.
So if EV tech becomes equal to ICE tech in reliability, repair cost and refueling by say, 2030....it'll be 15-20 years from then that they filter down into the "lower buck" car buyers.
When I say "EV is not ready for prime time", all this is what I mean. I mean "EV will not become the primary means of transportation for a LONG time to come".
And this is just talking about retail consumers and their personal transportation, not fleets and businesses.
It's got a LONG way to go.