In MHO, the elections of 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 somewhat hinged on the entire trust issue.
In 2000, somehow GWB convinced people that he was a uniter and not a divider. Although Gore won the popular vote, Gore was hardly charismatic, and Florida and the general events there swung the election to GWB. By August of 01, it was apparent that GWB had no real policies and his popularity was flagging. Then 911 hit and America had little choice than to rally around its President, as a war on terror began. And because America tends to trust Republicans regarding a strong military, the GOP was able to make gains in the 2002 election. By 11/2004, the hey day flush of 90% approval rating GWB had when he invaded Iraq was gone and it was quite apparent that both Afghanistan and Iraq were well on their way to becoming quagmires. Sadly the dems went with a not very charismatic John Kerry who tried to sell the country on the idea he was a smarter military version of GWB and that he, Kerry, could win the Iraqi occupation while GWB could not. And with flip flops and swiftboating, it ended up being Kerry never achieved any trust level or achieved any ability to attack GWB on the economy or other issues. And in MHO, the American people voted for the devil they knew rather than the devil they did not know.
But any analysis of the later results should have scared the hell out of the GOP. America was still deeply divided, the electoral college map was almost unchanged from 2000 to 2004, and it should have been apparent that the GOP had to make some result advances. I still recall the infamous remark of GWB after the election of 04, " I now have political capital, and now its time to spend it." And his next big push was to reform social security, and it became rapidly apparent that not even the GOP trusted GWB to mess around with social security. Thereafter the GOP went off the deep end, and the worse GOP abuses occurred. Delay and congressional corruption became a circus as the the GOP rubber stamp congress became addicted to power.
It is widely considered that the congressional elections of 2006 were a referendum on GWB and the GOP lost those elections badly.
Sadly, I do not think the democrats have been effective in pushing their own agenda and the GOP desperately rear guards the same policies the lost them the election of 2006. Now despite a near doubling of the national debt, the American economy can no longer be artificially pumped up, Iraq looks better but may not by November/08, Afghanistan really looks bad, and the entire message on both sides in the primaries is that the voters want a radical change away from the proven failed policies of the past eight years.
In MHO, McCain won the republican primaries because he was the only candidate on the GOP side who was remotely critical of GWB. On the democratic side,
Hillary doomed herself because she was dumb enough to vote for the Iraq war and her message of change therefore fell on deaf ears with too many democratic voters. That and the fact the Hillary was the victim of 15 years of republican swiftboating her message of trust me, I have experience message did not sell.
Now the main protagonists in the election of 08 are all too clear. It will be the inexperienced Obama against an experienced McCain. Or to put it another way, change vs. McSame.
Right now the election strategy is shaping up to McCain saying nothing about exactly how he will change policy while the entire GOP tries to sell the message that Obama can't be trusted. A position that may wear thin and boring before 11/4/08. But with some three months left until the general election,
McCain and the GOP have to hope like hell that the economy holds up and nothing turns to crud in Afghanistan or Iraq. That and the fact the the rest of the world is very up happy with GWB allows external events to discredit McCain.
Its going to be a difficult sell for the GOP with McCain. And a difficult sell with the democrats with Obama. But in many ways, Obama has both charisma and has all the options open. McCain on the other hand is a captive to GWB and the failed policies of the past. Its Obama's election to lose and not Mccain's election to win. Right now McCain is scoring some points, but look for Obama to start to really bruise McCain as the campaign progresses.