Well for starters that Obama is a stronger candidate not facing an incumbent with far more resources, greater name recognition, and superior grassroots organization in a far more favorable electoral environment.
Oh, and by the most recent poll I could find (which admittedly is not recent at all) Obama was up by about THIRTY POINTS.
I'll re-look at Hawaii but little ol Hawaii doesn't change the outcome.
McCain still doesn't even need to campaign.
Actually by your own map it does, it puts Obama at exactly 270, the number needed to win.
Looks like McCain better start campaigning... hahaha.
I just love the fact that Dave has been talking about how this campaign is so in the bag for McCain that he doesn't even need to campaign, but once he corrects his map to account for the 30 point lead Obama has there, Obama wins by Dave's prediction.
Of course that's because when he made his electoral map he went into it with the conclusion that McCain was going to win, he just had to figure out which states he needed to pick to make his conclusion true.
What are you talkng about?
Hawaii is only 3 EC votes.
I have McCain winning by at least 6.
You fail at the math skills.
lol. You have 4 for Hawaii. Hence, if you add four to Obama and take four from McCain, Obama wins.
Hawaii has 4 electoral votes there, champ.
EDIT: And just to clear things up, even if Hawaii was only 3 EC votes (which it isn't), then that would make it a tie. 4 changes it to 270-268 Obama. Obama doesn't even need to campaign!
McCain is not even campaigning in 5 of them
8-3-2008Obama makes bid in 7 longtime Republican states
Alaska is young. Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia have growing populations and many black voters. Montana has seen recent Democratic inroads, and North Dakota has sent only Democrats to Congress since 1986. Indiana borders Barack Obama's home state.
The Democratic presidential candidate is putting money and manpower in all seven of these states ? at levels unmatched by Republican rival John McCain.
Undeterred, senior McCain strategist Steve Schmidt said: "We feel very confident about holding these states." He also expressed optimism that McCain can win several Democratic-leaning perennial swing targets.
McCain is largely absent from most of these states, trusting for now that right-leaning roots will prevail.
Democrats see other dynamics in the states as opportunities, which Republicans say are just delusions.
Of the cluster, Virginia is most likely to go Democratic, so it's the one where McCain is competing in earnest.
Recognizing a potential problem, McCain is sending a full paid staff to North Carolina though running no ads for now.
In Montana, Bill Clinton showed it's worth it for a Democrat to compete hard; he narrowly won it in 1992 but narrowly lost it four years later. President Bush, however, won by enormous margins in back-to-back elections.
North Dakota has a GOP governor but has had an all-Democratic congressional delegation for more than two decades. Still, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the state in more than 30 years.
8-3-2008Obama makes bid in 7 longtime Republican states
Alaska is young. Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia have growing populations and many black voters. Montana has seen recent Democratic inroads, and North Dakota has sent only Democrats to Congress since 1986. Indiana borders Barack Obama's home state.
The Democratic presidential candidate is putting money and manpower in all seven of these states ? at levels unmatched by Republican rival John McCain.
Undeterred, senior McCain strategist Steve Schmidt said: "We feel very confident about holding these states." He also expressed optimism that McCain can win several Democratic-leaning perennial swing targets.
McCain is largely absent from most of these states, trusting for now that right-leaning roots will prevail.
Democrats see other dynamics in the states as opportunities, which Republicans say are just delusions.
Of the cluster, Virginia is most likely to go Democratic, so it's the one where McCain is competing in earnest.
Recognizing a potential problem, McCain is sending a full paid staff to North Carolina though running no ads for now.
In Montana, Bill Clinton showed it's worth it for a Democrat to compete hard; he narrowly won it in 1992 but narrowly lost it four years later. President Bush, however, won by enormous margins in back-to-back elections.
North Dakota has a GOP governor but has had an all-Democratic congressional delegation for more than two decades. Still, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the state in more than 30 years.
rpanic
Golden Member
- Dec 1, 2006
- 1,896
- 7
- 81
Obama could loose not so much because he is black, but that enough people will just see him for what he is, another politician that?s full of crap. It will be another race that the democrats were handed on a silver platter and that they completely blew. Yay for the great choices, I can?t wait to see how horrible they are in 4 years.
You realize that what you're quoting supports my argument and not yours, right?
There are plenty of states that each year candidates don't campaign in. You won't see Obama spending much time in New York (if any, besides fundraising), same with California. You don't see him campaigning in Massachusetts either do you? What the article you linked is talking about is how Obama is attacking McCain in states that are traditionally safe Republican ones. Sure he says he's still not campaigning in some of them, but he's clearly worried about Virginia, a state that's been solidly red for a generation. Same with North Carolina.
That article paints McCain in a position of weakness, not strength.
So does this now mean you're predicting an Obama victory? Or is McCain going to erase a 30 point deficit in Hawaii for a come from behind victory?
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,161
- 7
- 0
There are several reasons why Obama is doing poorly compared to where we expect him to be.
1. He is an unknown and thus people don't trust him, if he can win their trust he will get a big boost in the polls.
2. He is no longer running against someone who agrees with him on all the issues. I think that is the big change he is facing now compared to the spring.
3. He has been on a slight downward sloop since way back in Feb. Go back and look at the state by state Democrat results. Obama built up a big lead and then Hillary almost caught up to him. Hillary had victories in most of the late primaries.
I read an article just a day or two ago that made a point about how the enthusiasm of the younger voters is wearing off as well. The number who expect to vote in the fall has dropped dramatically since the spring. Obviously all of Obama's minor flips, the Rev Wright thing and his tendency to appear more like a regular politician recently and less like some transcendent figure has really hurt him.
1. He is an unknown and thus people don't trust him, if he can win their trust he will get a big boost in the polls.
2. He is no longer running against someone who agrees with him on all the issues. I think that is the big change he is facing now compared to the spring.
3. He has been on a slight downward sloop since way back in Feb. Go back and look at the state by state Democrat results. Obama built up a big lead and then Hillary almost caught up to him. Hillary had victories in most of the late primaries.
I read an article just a day or two ago that made a point about how the enthusiasm of the younger voters is wearing off as well. The number who expect to vote in the fall has dropped dramatically since the spring. Obviously all of Obama's minor flips, the Rev Wright thing and his tendency to appear more like a regular politician recently and less like some transcendent figure has really hurt him.
It's impossible to keep followers that whipped up for 8 months straight. You will see a huge push for building enthusiasm again starting after the convention and especially in October. I personally predict a record shattering youth vote this time, something else that will bury McCain.
That's another interesting thing to note though, most polls do not poll young people, people with only cell phones and no land lines (like me!), things like that. These groups are not only large, but are massively Democratic in nature. So while polls try to correct for that, they are likely underpolling Obama's support.
No, McCain still has Electoral lead.
Youth vote will only add to the Popular vote count that Obama wins but Obama still loses the important count, the Electoral.
How does he have the electoral lead without Hawaii?
EDIT: Oh, I see you just arbitrarily changed another state that you originally had for Obama into a McCain state. At least we can all see that at this point you're just making shit up.
Chaotic42
Lifer
- Jun 15, 2001
- 34,963
- 2,116
- 126
I'm a white southerner and I'd have no problem voting for a black man (or woman), but I just cannot vote for Obama. He's far, far too fiscally liberal for me, too inexperienced, and I just disagree with too much of what he has to say.
I'd like to see a fiscal conservative in office one day. Maybe 2012...
I'd like to see a fiscal conservative in office one day. Maybe 2012...
Vic
Elite Member
- Jun 12, 2001
- 50,422
- 14,337
- 136
So because Obama isn't your vision of perfection, America is supposed to elect another politician that is full of even more crap and corruption?
Yeah.... that makes a lot of sense...
If the Democrats lose, it's because people like you are morons. Or liars in that you never intended on voting for them regardless of who they ran, 'silver platter' rhetoric meaning nothing. Take your pick.
You guys are the worst of both worlds, opposing candidates like Obama: you give us the deficit-loving Republicans (your complaining is less important than your vote), and the spending your guys do cut is the wrong spending to cut, harming the nation's actual interests as the interests of the most wealthy are dominant.
So instead of a balanced budget (eventually after deficit cuts) with solid, good social spending under a democrat, we get inadequate social spending and excessive deficit bad spending.
You guys seem to have a political approach of a pipe dream of what you want, and the party who will say anything like that, however much you know they're lying, you'll pick.
That's not even getting into the issues of whether the policies you want will do what you want or be disasters if enacted. Look at the spending of the last several Republicans...
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