Where's the fence?

[cwjerome]

Holds up yo. Phoenix passed a no-texting law yesterday, so all is good again. We can all leave our doors open at night and rest easier that society is safe now. Illegals? What illegals? What impact?

BTW, about 50% of crime in Phoenix is committed by illegal aliens.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: cwjerome
Holds up yo. Phoenix passed a no-texting law yesterday, so all is good again. We can all leave our doors open at night and rest easier that society is safe now. Illegals? What illegals? What impact?

BTW, about 50% of crime in Phoenix is committed by illegal aliens.

Hahaha. Facts please. I'd LOVE to see some statistics from a credible source on that one.

When I looked for some, the only thing I found was an NPR story that ended with the mention that Phoenix has a lot of crime rumors floating around it that aren't supported by facts. (seriously... hahaha)

 

[cwjerome]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: cwjerome
Holds up yo. Phoenix passed a no-texting law yesterday, so all is good again. We can all leave our doors open at night and rest easier that society is safe now. Illegals? What illegals? What impact?

BTW, about 50% of crime in Phoenix is committed by illegal aliens.

Hahaha. Facts please. I'd LOVE to see some statistics from a credible source on that one.

When I looked for some, the only thing I found was an NPR story that ended with the mention that Phoenix has a lot of crime rumors floating around it that aren't supported by facts. (seriously... hahaha)

I don't know what you're laughing about. There are no statistics on actual percentages because nobody keeps track... but you probably already knew that. The generally accepted number in Phoenix as reported on radio or tv is about half, or 50%. Some just say "much of the crime".

In any case, you're missing the big picture by attacking a statistic. We can say 5 of the last 7 cops were murdered by illegals. We can say 83% of the warrants out for murder in Phoenix are illegal aliens. We can say the violent crime rate in the Phoenix area has risen more than 45%. We can say everyday there's stories about particularly gruesome murders, beatings, child molestations, rapes, home invasions and car-jackings committed by illegals. We can say a lot of things that combine to paint a pretty bleak picture. And much of the crime by illegals is underreported. Those that live here KNOW what's going on.

But you get bent over that 50% and continue to ignore the larger issue that we deal with daily.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: cwjerome

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: cwjerome
Holds up yo. Phoenix passed a no-texting law yesterday, so all is good again. We can all leave our doors open at night and rest easier that society is safe now. Illegals? What illegals? What impact?

BTW, about 50% of crime in Phoenix is committed by illegal aliens.

Hahaha. Facts please. I'd LOVE to see some statistics from a credible source on that one.

When I looked for some, the only thing I found was an NPR story that ended with the mention that Phoenix has a lot of crime rumors floating around it that aren't supported by facts. (seriously... hahaha)

I don't know what you're laughing about. There are no statistics on actual percentages because nobody keeps track... but you probably already knew that. The generally accepted number in Phoenix as reported on radio or tv is about half, or 50%. Some just say "much of the crime".

In any case, you're missing the big picture by attacking a statistic. We can say 5 of the last 7 cops were murdered by illegals. We can say 83% of the warrants out for murder in Phoenix are illegal aliens. We can say the violent crime rate in the Phoenix area has risen more than 45%. We can say everyday there's stories about particularly gruesome murders, beatings, child molestations, rapes, home invasions and car-jackings committed by illegals. We can say a lot of things that combine to paint a pretty bleak picture. And much of the crime by illegals is underreported. Those that live here KNOW what's going on.

But you get bent over that 50% and continue to ignore the larger issue that we deal with daily.

That was exactly the point of the NPR article. That those statistics are ones often repeated as if they have a basis in fact, when.... they don't. You yourself say that nobody knows, yet somehow 50% is okay? This would presuppose a level of crime vasty in excess of illegal alien populations in other cities. What reason can you give that the illegal aliens in Phoenix are so much more prone to crime then illegal aliens elsewhere in the US?

In addition, I suspect the murder warrants you are talking about are actually outstanding murder warrants, not total issued ones. This is the same fallacy that was mentioned in that xenophobic chain mail mentioned in other threads. The issue with those is that immigrants frequently flee the country after doing something like that, and so the warrants remain outstanding forever. Citizens are usually more easily caught. Now that's certainly a problem, but it does not mean that immigrants are responsible for 83% of murders in Phoenix as implied...or even anywhere close to that.

I'm just trying to show you why your "statistics" are likely wrong, because they are based on hearsay and rumor mills. I checked the statistics on Phoenix, and out of the 12 largest cities in the US it was the 4th safest in terms of violent crime with a rate of 662.4... almost 25% lower then average for big cities. To expect that illegal immigrants were responsible for such a disproportionate number of your crimes would require either an illegal segment of exceptional criminality, or a nonillegal segment of exceptional law-abiding-ness. Both seem statistically unlikely, and certainly require some support other then "I heard it on the radio and local TV news". (both bastions of quality reporting I'm sure)

 

[cwjerome]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
That was exactly the point of the NPR article. That those statistics are ones often repeated as if they have a basis in fact, when.... they don't. You yourself say that nobody knows, yet somehow 50% is okay? This would presuppose a level of crime vasty in excess of illegal alien populations in other cities. What reason can you give that the illegal aliens in Phoenix are so much more prone to crime then illegal aliens elsewhere in the US?

In addition, I suspect the murder warrants you are talking about are actually outstanding murder warrants, not total issued ones. This is the same fallacy that was mentioned in that xenophobic chain mail mentioned in other threads. The issue with those is that immigrants frequently flee the country after doing something like that, and so the warrants remain outstanding forever. Citizens are usually more easily caught. Now that's certainly a problem, but it does not mean that immigrants are responsible for 83% of murders in Phoenix as implied...or even anywhere close to that.

I'm just trying to show you why your "statistics" are likely wrong, because they are based on hearsay and rumor mills. I checked the statistics on Phoenix, and out of the 12 largest cities in the US it was the 4th safest in terms of violent crime with a rate of 662.4... almost 25% lower then average for big cities. To expect that illegal immigrants were responsible for such a disproportionate number of your crimes would require either an illegal segment of exceptional criminality, or a nonillegal segment of exceptional law-abiding-ness. Both seem statistically unlikely, and certainly require some support other then "I heard it on the radio and local TV news". (both bastions of quality reporting I'm sure)

Yeah, I'd say about 50% seems ok, based on a general consensus... which itself is derived from a myriad of estimates and factors.

And yeah, I'm sure you're right about the warrants being outstanding. That does not change anything I'm saying... in fact it's reinforcing it. Not only do illegals murder, but they usually get away because they flee to Mexico. Often, only to come back and commit more crimes. So what would be an acceptable number of murders for you I wonder... 25%? Less?

Let's look at some numbers. The official population of Phoenix is about 1,350,000. There are over 500,000 illegals in Arizona, so I think it's safe to assume that at least 250,000 of them are in and around Phoenix (making it them about 20% of the population). We always hear how 1% of the population commits something like 75% of crimes... is it possible that 20% of the population commits 50% of the crimes?

Considering that we're less than 200 miles from the Mexican border in a place where a lot of illegal traffic flows, you'd be correct in assuming that we get a VERY large number of human and drug smuggling, as well as other illegal activities (like extremely high auto theft rates, etc) that are carried by illegal aliens.

So you want to turn a blind eye to all this and argue over piddly numbers to obfuscate and deceive? That's my impression anyway... and I just have to wonder, why? Forget the burden on health care and education, and all that other stuff... just the criminal aspect alone requires a serious effort to stop the flow and remove the lawbreakers.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: cwjerome

Yeah, I'd say about 50% seems ok, based on a general consensus... which itself is derived from a myriad of estimates and factors.

And yeah, I'm sure you're right about the warrants being outstanding. That does not change anything I'm saying... in fact it's reinforcing it. Not only do illegals murder, but they usually get away because they flee to Mexico. Often, only to come back and commit more crimes. So what would be an acceptable number of murders for you I wonder... 25%? Less?

Let's look at some numbers. The official population of Phoenix is about 1,350,000. There are over 500,000 illegals in Arizona, so I think it's safe to assume that at least 250,000 of them are in and around Phoenix (making it them about 20% of the population). We always hear how 1% of the population commits something like 75% of crimes... is it possible that 20% of the population commits 50% of the crimes?

Considering that we're less than 200 miles from the Mexican border in a place where a lot of illegal traffic flows, you'd be correct in assuming that we get a VERY large number of human and drug smuggling, as well as other illegal activities (like extremely high auto theft rates, etc) that are carried by illegal aliens.

So you want to turn a blind eye to all this and argue over piddly numbers to obfuscate and deceive? That's my impression anyway... and I just have to wonder, why? Forget the burden on health care and education, and all that other stuff... just the criminal aspect alone requires a serious effort to stop the flow and remove the lawbreakers.

You are using arguments that say things like "general consensus", and "we always hear". Those aren't valid sources for information. If you believe that 1% of the population commits 75% of the crime, lets see some statistics from a reputable source to back it up. If you believe that illegal immigrants commit 50% of the crimes in Phoenix, lets see some numbers to back it up. The reason why you need to supply numbers is because the hearsay you are quoting would put Phoenix hugely at odds with crime trends nationwide, and therefore your statements require some backup. These aren't "piddly" numbers, these are objective analysis that calls your argument into serious doubt.

I'm not interested in the health care/education part right now, even though you're probably largely wrong on that impact too... stick to the crime part and back up your statement.