When does the economy take a noticeable hit from Project 2025's administrative policies?

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When does the economy take a noticeable hit from Project 2025's administrative policies?

  • Within a month

    Votes: 6 23.1%

  • Within 3 months

    Votes: 12 46.2%

  • Within 6 months

    Votes: 6 23.1%

  • By the end of the year

    Votes: 1 3.8%

  • Not until 2026

    Votes: 1 3.8%
  • Total voters
    26
MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,944
24,262
136
Markets don't like chaos. Cutting federal spending so dramatically can affect a noticeable chunk of GDP spending, as the government is a huge part of overall GDP spending. Consumer confidence will go down if this chaos has time to manifest in results downstream such as with deportations, loss of government programs, less government spending, etc... This should all hurt the economy.

When do you think the markets or economy will take a noticeable hit from the Project 2025 Presidency?
 
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L

LurchFrinky

Senior member
Nov 12, 2003
309
64
101
It depends on what you mean by "economy."
If you're talking about GDP, I would say between 3 and 6 months.
For the stock market, less than 3 months.
Some personal and local economies are likely being affected right now.
 
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Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,093
10,576
136
Doesn't this belong in the stock market thread?

But since Tech Stocks in general are basically 40% of the market and their income is global.. I wouldn't expect a 2008 type stock market crash.

Basically other than just surrendering Taiwan to China, nothing major will damage tech stocks. The rest of the market: retail/ manufacturing/ healthcare, etc sure.. they'll get hit.

BTW I have to say I'm surprised Tesla didn't crash after Elon's salute! But that just shows how global tech stocks are.. 80% of the world couldn't care what Nazi's do.
 
Brovane

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,150
2,425
136
I am going within 6-months that things go pear shape. I am trying to nail down MAGA supporters as to what metrics they are looking for to show that what Trump is doing is working.

I also have been pulling the reverse UNO card on those guys for all the Return to Office stuff for Federal employees that they think is wonderful. I have been telling them that since Trump is going to introduce a new "Golden Age" for the US economy and everything will be so great that workers will be in high demand and employers will need to compete on benefits. Employers that are flexible and allow Work From Home will be able to attract top talent. They really don't know how to respond to that.
 
Last edited:
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M

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,333
6,653
126
Brovane said:
I am trying to nail down MAGA supporters as to what metrics they are looking for to show that what Trump is doing is working.
Click to expand...
In my opinion you would be looking for signs of rational thinking I would not expect to be there.
 
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UNCjigga

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
25,333
9,868
136
Waiting to see if my wife is furloughed this week. If so, our income will be cut roughly in half. Already have lots of friends and acquaintances in DC who are losing jobs this week. So yeah, it’s personal when you start fucking with my money. We’re already cancelling spring break/summer travel plans so expect the hospitality industry to take a hit.

I’m seeing troubling signs in the bond market, interest rate cuts are being frozen (and may start going up again) and if we start seeing inflation, don’t expect an Inflation Reduction Act from Trump. A CFO conference I attended virtually this week had everyone talking about geopolitical instability and possible supply constraints (tariffs), possible civil unrest (general strikes) and a focus on “resiliency and cost cutting” vs. growth. So corporate America is planning on a recession (but many of them are likely Trump voters as they seemed bullish it would be “short-term”).
 
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ivwshane

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,299
16,635
136
UNCjigga said:
Waiting to see if my wife is furloughed this week. If so, our income will be cut roughly in half. Already have lots of friends and acquaintances in DC who are losing jobs this week. So yeah, it’s personal when you start fucking with my money. We’re already cancelling spring break/summer travel plans so expect the hospitality industry to take a hit.

I’m seeing troubling signs in the bond market, interest rate cuts are being frozen (and may start going up again) and if we start seeing inflation, don’t expect an Inflation Reduction Act from Trump. A CFO conference I attended virtually this week had everyone talking about geopolitical instability and possible supply constraints (tariffs), possible civil unrest (general strikes) and a focus on “resiliency and cost cutting” vs. growth. So corporate America is planning on a recession (but many of them are likely Trump voters as they seemed bullish it would be “short-term”).
Click to expand...

In solidarity I’m trying to limit my consumer spending. I’ve already limited my spending at places that supported Trump. Money and profits is all that seem to matter so I’m using my voice in the best way I can.

Good luck to you.
 
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D

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,018
16,148
146
UNCjigga said:
Waiting to see if my wife is furloughed this week. If so, our income will be cut roughly in half. Already have lots of friends and acquaintances in DC who are losing jobs this week. So yeah, it’s personal when you start fucking with my money. We’re already cancelling spring break/summer travel plans so expect the hospitality industry to take a hit.

I’m seeing troubling signs in the bond market, interest rate cuts are being frozen (and may start going up again) and if we start seeing inflation, don’t expect an Inflation Reduction Act from Trump. A CFO conference I attended virtually this week had everyone talking about geopolitical instability and possible supply constraints (tariffs), possible civil unrest (general strikes) and a focus on “resiliency and cost cutting” vs. growth. So corporate America is planning on a recession (but many of them are likely Trump voters as they seemed bullish it would be “short-term”).
Click to expand...
I'm sorry you're going through this. The hardest part of these times is when those who didn't fuck around have to find out, since they already knew what was coming.

Prepare for things to get worse, stay above the churn.
 
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Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,093
10,576
136
LurchFrinky said:
It depends on what you mean by "economy."
If you're talking about GDP, I would say between 3 and 6 months.
For the stock market, less than 3 months.
Some personal and local economies are likely being affected right now.
Click to expand...

Faster than that if you're a ultra hard MAGA fan:

 
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MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,944
24,262
136
If these tariffs kick in tomorrow and stay for a bit, and the federal funding freeze continues, which is still happening in defiance of the courts, shit is going to go down in the next 3 months.
 
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Brainonska511

Brainonska511

Lifer
Dec 10, 2005
27,729
12,202
136
Fenixgoon said:
You know what? I hope oil is included. Just so people understand how fucking mental this guy is. Maybe they'll start to regret their decision.
Click to expand...
You know, I'm not so sure some of them will regret their choice, because they just live to "own the libs". They have no principles beyond hating their children/parents/neighbors.
 
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Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,093
10,576
136
ch33zw1z said:
Yes, the liberal tears will pacify them for a while
Click to expand...

There's a very famous football saying in Europe (or soccer as we dumbass Americans call it)

You can leave your wife, your mistress, your kids, your parents, your job, your friends, your town, your country but NEVER your football team!

MAGA Americans have adopted that and replaced the football team with.. owning the libs.
 
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UNCjigga

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
25,333
9,868
136
Roger Wilco said:
Orange man says oil may not be part of tarrifs.

Click to expand...
Somebody probably made him watch “Landman”, so now he’s onboard with the idea that there’s a “magical price of $76/barrel” where oil is priced low enough that consumers continue consuming and buying guzzler trucks/SUV and OPEC won’t flood the market, but still high enough that exploration/ drilling will be profitable. So Trump is shooting for $76.
 
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MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,944
24,262
136
This was just a couple weeks ago. At the rate this shit is happening, I think the three months votes may win this thing. But without a doubt, it will be within six months.
 
B

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
29,282
29,584
136
UNCjigga said:
Somebody probably made him watch “Landman”, so now he’s onboard with the idea that there’s a “magical price of $76/barrel” where oil is priced low enough that consumers continue consuming and buying guzzler trucks/SUV and OPEC won’t flood the market, but still high enough that exploration/ drilling will be profitable. So Trump is shooting for $76.
Click to expand...
The sad thing is I can see this being reality. Fuck the orange traitor.
 
dank69

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,998
32,287
136
I don't know but firing 300,000 federal workers can't possibly be good for the economy.
 
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