What will Trump's infrastructure bill look like? [Poll]

[Bitek]

Mar 17 OP:
..
Trump needs some wins to establish a legislative agenda and something to take to voters in the midterm.

He had promised a yuuuge rebuilding package to Congress within his first 100 days in office, in the range of $500B-1T.

No details have been given, other than the desire to use "public-private partnerships" to help fund the effort. ...

Jan 18 update:

Lol @ the shifting goalposts, but not dead yet:

The infrastructure package will include only $200 billion in direct federal investment. Trump expects the other $1.3 trillion to $1.6 trillion to come from a combination of local, state, and private investment, incentivized by the federal seed money.

Here's how that $200 billion will be split up, according to a leaked draft of the plan from Axios:

• $100 billion (50% of the total federal investment) in grants on "infrastructure incentives" designed to encourage investment from state governments, local governments, and private companies on "core infrastructure." Each state could only receive up to 10% of the total, and federal grants couldn't make up more than 20% of the total spent on a project.
• $20 billion (10% of federal investment) on the "Transformative Projects Program." The program would give federal money to swing-for-the-fences type projects that can't get money from private markets due to the "uniqueness of the program." Included in the possible programs that could receive money are "commercial space" ventures.
• $50 billion (25% of federal investment) on rural infrastructure. This is to ensure that projects in rural areas, which usually have lower returns on investment, do not get left behind.
• $14 billion (7.05% of federal investment) to grow existing federal credit programs for infrastructure.
• $10 billion (5% of federal investment) towards a "Federal Capital Financing Fund" that would assist federal agencies in purchasing land for new projects or indicatives.

Feb 18 update:

Trump supports raising gas taxes $0.25.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/14/trump-reportedly-endorses-25-cent-hike-in-gas-tax.html

Why this screws the middle class & raises their taxes under Trump:

The idea is that gas taxes are user fees, however these taxes tend to be highly regressive.

The avg miles driven per yr is 13,500
Avg mpg for the US is 23.6 mpg

Therefore, average tax increase is $150/yr/driver.

For a two parent household, that's $300/yr. Teenagers? Pony up more.

So how much did families save on the GOP tax proposals?

Chart below is tax changes from the tax bill. Balance that will the potential gas tax increase.

Net effect, every household under ~$50k will see a net increase in their taxes despite Trump tax cuts and trillion dollar deficits.

That's before they start tolling more roads...

How many households is that? Millions.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Torn between the last two, but decided to hope for a bill not making it out of Congress. We need an infrastructure bill but selling roads to for profit corps is likely to be Trump's answer.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Not sure but I have a feeling it will be huge (no sarcasm intended). He's a builder and likes big projects and understands the value to business when everything is linked & working.
I do think he'll want his name stamped in concrete similar to the 1930's Army Corp of Engineers you still see on some stuff today.

 

[Zorba]

I think it'll go about like AHCA, it'll be a huge give away to a select few, will do little to improve infrastructure and won't make it out of Congress.

 

[IronWing]

Something will get out of Congress as Congress is well greased by the construction industry. It won't be huge but enough of an increase to grandstand on. The increase will mostly be giveaways to the well heeled and well connected. The federal government doesn't own a lot of infrastructure so any giveaways would have to be structured as pass-throughs to the swing states. Given Trump's ego and desire to stir the shit for the sake of stirring the shit, we could see a large, dead, pointless dam project or two in favored districts brought back to life.

 

[Bitek]

I'm torn also. I think it really comes down to how Trump decides to govern going forward, and how tempted Ds will be to sign on vs watching Trump go down in flames. The outcome of the tax reform bill will be critical too.

If he tries a highly partisan path, he will lose the Ds. The tea party ppl won't want to spend money easily (could be a false assumption.) Little to nothing will pass.

He can try to go middle ground, grab the Ds, ditch the fiscal hawks.. But I have real doubts to what Ryan will allow to come to the floor, plus Ds have little incentive to work with Trump.

The huge spend is right out, but I think Rs may get frustrated enough to cut a deal with Ds and pass something to take home.

 

[Pens1566]

Went boondoggle. We kind of already know that it will be focused on tax credits (via leaks/reports). I think, depending on timing and other events, that there will be enough of a push back to cause an AHCA like result. You don't get to bully members of congress to support an unpopular bill with a 36% approval rating while you're in the cross hairs of a DoJ counter intel investigation. He just doesn't have the political capital, or show any signs of becoming bi-partisan, to justify it.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

I went with giveaways, privatizing the lot of it, but it won't clear congress, so, ultimately a boondoggle of drumpfic proportions.

 

[thraashman]

The entire bill will just be to rename every major highway from things like I-75 to Trump-75

 

[feralkid]

Not sure but I have a feeling it will be huge (no sarcasm intended). He's a builder and likes big projects and understands the value to business when everything is linked & working.
I do think he'll want his name stamped in concrete similar to the 1930's Army Corp of Engineers you still see on some stuff today.

Aren't you referring to the Civilian Conservation Corps?

 

[woolfe9998]

They aren't going to get the Freedom Caucus to vote yes on any such bill. Dems have limited reason to cooperate especially if it turns out to be what is known so far. Possible failed bill.

 

[trenchfoot]

Huge tax credits for the right folks, no bid contracts, incessant cost overruns, Halliburton-like quality standards, all projects built to fail on a pre-determined time schedule to maximize profits from repairs/refurbs/demolition/rebuilds, empire building for the fellows with the right connections via cutthroat backdoor deals and schemes, delays, delays and more delays due to incompetent nepotistic management, an absolutely monstrous give-away to anybody connected with the Trump Family businesses, oversight provided by the Trump kids with their fees kicked in via the Russian Laundering Machina Ministry, Law Firms making the most profit of all that are involved with this program from the incalculable lawsuits filed over liability/performance issues.

It's going to happen, but only after all of the players are lined up and ready to make bank from every angle possible, and after the start whistle blows it's going to look like a brawl, a riot, a veritable warzone of cash grabs and disappearing $Billions$ much worse than the Bush/Cheney Capital Improvement Venture in Iraq.

In other words, business as usual exponentially intensified by the Trump Effect.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Aren't you referring to the Civilian Conservation Corps?

Yes! I was thanks. I remember them as a kid but most have been replaced where I live.

 

[Jhhnn]

Aren't you referring to the Civilian Conservation Corps?

Several federal agencies were involved in infrastructure at the time- TVA, CCC, WPA, Army Corp of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation & others, I'm sure.

 

[hal2kilo]

Aren't you referring to the Civilian Conservation Corps?

I was thinking the same thing. Should have been in Chicago when Daily was alive. Signs and plaques everywhere. Probably still finding ones to pry off of something not moving.

 

[dullard]

Given Trump's ego and desire to stir the shit for the sake of stirring the shit, we could see a large, dead, pointless dam project or two in favored districts brought back to life.

I was thinking the same thing. A few dams where the government pays and a private company collects the electricity profits and a few bridges where the government pays and a private company collects the toll profits. Etc. These private-public entities tend to be modeled around the same concept of "we all pay, someone else profits". He might broaden the concept out to internet as well, we can pay for some fast fiber lines and then let a private company sell you the use of them for a fortune each month.

What will also likely be passed is some tax credits for construction firms for projects that were going to be done anyways.

 

[BurnItDwn]

Boondoggle is trumps middle name.

 

[Jhhnn]

Yes! I was thanks. I remember them as a kid but most have been replaced where I live.

I think you mis-remember. The CCC was disbanded in 1942-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps

 

[Jhhnn]

I figure what it will amount to is sweet, sweet gravy & guaranteed ROI for investors to put their money up front & milk the taxpayers for a decade or few.

Or we could just raise taxes on the investor class... the very idea sends Repub lawmakers clutching at their pearls...

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I think you mis-remember. The CCC was disbanded in 1942-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_Conservation_Corps

Whatever those bronze plaques that were posted on old bridges and stuff built in the 30s-40s. You all know what I mean.

 

[Bitek]

Bump for the necro thread about a necro policy.

Last week was Infrastructure Week, did everyone feel it?

Added a new poll choice in celebration:

"President is removed from office first"

 

[K1052]

The president last week touted a tax bill that literally doesn't exist. With healthcare a smoldering train fire and many other legislative housekeeping items coming up (budgets, debt ceiling, FAA reaauth, etc) I'm betting a proposal never sees daylight let alone gets formed into actual legislation.

 

[xthetenth]

I'm prepared to be amazed by how central luxury hotels and golf courses are to the US' infrastructure.

 

[zinfamous]

It's one of the last 3 in your poll, with odds daily favoring the last option. Since I am late to this thread, current news has me favoring removal from office before he accomplishes [anything].

Oh, I see that is a new option. No wonder I was the only voter.

well played.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Bump for the necro thread about a necro policy.

Last week was Infrastructure Week, did everyone feel it?

Added a new poll choice in celebration:

"President is removed from office first"

I felt it. Plenty of pot holes left unfilled around here