What is the real reason Mitt Romney won't release his tax returns?

[mshan]

"in a heavily polarized election like this all you really need to do is persuade 1-2% of the population."

PBS Washington Week commentator recently said there are perhaps 3 million genuinely persuadable voters, in total, in ALL of the swing states who will serve as tie breakers this election, because most people have their opinions locked in and won't change no matter what.

And it sounds like a lot of those might actually be people who voted for Obama in 2008, thinking they were voting for FDR, but now realize they got H. W. Bush, and are debating whether to give Obama more time or just try the other guy.

Not sure what turnout assumptions are made in projections such as http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/, but when he was not in the establishment during last cycle, he had projections based upon varying levels of turnout here:

http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/5780/

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Honestly, I don't think any of this stuff will make much difference. I think anyone really unhappy that Romney a) makes a ton of money, b) exploits tax loopholes like crazy, and c) pays a lower marginal rate than your average high school teacher was probably not going to vote for him anyway. To those that agree with him, he's simply paying the rate required of him by law, and not a penny more.

My personal theory is that Romney is actually under pressure from within the GOP not to release his returns. My guess is that what is in there would be much more damaging to the overall Republican agenda than to Romney personally. It is more a concern that the Democrats will use this as evidence that taxes need to be raised on the rich than that it will harm Romney's election chances. And avoiding giving the Democrats that weapon is more important to them than Romney winning anyway (especially since they probably know he's not going to, regardless.)

 

[fskimospy]

mshan, 3 million genuinely persuadable voters in all of the swing states is a pretty big part of the meaningful electorate. Now of course the definition of swing state is fairly nebulous but if you take all the 'swing states' together you probably end up with somewhere around 30-40 million votes. 3 million votes would be 10% of the votes cast. Persuading even a small portion of those yields enormous results.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Honestly, I don't think any of this stuff will make much difference. I think anyone really unhappy that Romney a) makes a ton of money, b) exploits tax loopholes like crazy, and c) pays a lower marginal rate than your average high school teacher was probably not going to vote for him anyway. To those that agree with him, he's simply paying the rate required of him by law, and not a penny more.

Do you pay more that what you're required to pay by law?

Does Obama pay more that what he's required to pay by law?

Should Romney to be castigated for not paying more than what's required by law?

 

[fskimospy]

Do you pay more that what you're required to pay by law?

Does Obama pay more that what he's required to pay by law?

Should Romney to be castigated for not paying more than what is required by law?

Clearly you must realize that this isn't about Romney breaking the law, right? It's about the policies he is advocating. If someone is campaigning on big tax breaks for the rich like Romney is, it will likely be unappealing to voters if they learn he already pays less in taxes than they do.

 

[mshan]

Romney may have off shore tax havens that were pushing the limits on legality, so called grey market offshore tax havens. Sounds like even for the super rich, he was pushing the envelope into areas of questionable legality.

Plus the felony charge is I think simply based upon conflicting SEC filing (both can't be accurate at same time), saying I believe in 2007 that he completely retired from Bain in 1999, but previous filing and his own sworn testimony that it was in fact originally a part time role or temporary leave of absence.

Statute of limitations is 5 years, and I can't see why Obama campaign would actually want to follow up legally on those charges; it would make Romney look like the victim and open up Obama to charges of being like Nixon for trying to use government to destroy his political adversaries.

 

[BD2003]

Clearly you must realize that this isn't about Romney breaking the law, right? It's about the policies he is advocating. If someone is campaigning on big tax breaks for the rich like Romney is, it will likely be unappealing to voters if they learn he already pays less in taxes than they do.

Yep.

Even if it were legal to punch babies in the face....if I saw someone punch a baby in the face in front of me, and then he got on a pedestal and advocated a policy of baby face-punching....yeah, I'd still be upset about it.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Clearly you must realize that this isn't about Romney breaking the law, right? It's about the policies he is advocating. If someone is campaigning on big tax breaks for the rich like Romney is, it will likely be unappealing to voters if they learn he already pays less in taxes than they do.

Then we both understand what this is about...Dems want more ammo to smear Romney with sleazy attack ads. Makes one proud to be a Democrat I imagine.

 

[fskimospy]

Then we both understand what this is about...Dems want more ammo to smear Romney with sleazy attack ads. Makes one proud to be a Democrat I imagine.

Politics is for big boys, and the game has been played the same way for thousands of years. If you don't want to accept the rules of the game, don't play. What's funny is that as political attacks go these are extremely mild in terms of sleaziness. You'll see much worse as the election goes on. As for this information in particular, when someone is running on their fiscal credentials their finances seem directly relevant.

And finally, complaints from the Romney camp about sleazy or dishonest attacks is pretty hilarious considering the attacks he's made against Obama. He's just whining because he's losing.

 

[fskimospy]

Romney may have off shore tax havens that were pushing the limits on legality, so called grey market offshore tax havens. Sounds like even for the super rich, he was pushing the envelope into areas of questionable legality.

Plus the felony charge is I think simply based upon conflicting SEC filing (both can't be accurate at same time), saying I believe in 2007 that he completely retired from Bain in 1999, but previous filing and his own sworn testimony that it was in fact originally a part time role or temporary leave of absence.

Statute of limitations is 5 years, and I can't see why Obama campaign would actually want to follow up legally on those charges; it would make Romney look like the victim and open up Obama to charges of being like Nixon for trying to use government to destroy his political adversaries.

The Obama camp would never follow up on those charges. The point is to put into people's minds the idea that Romney might be a felon or something. It's not about the actual law, just about how Obama can influence people's perception of Romney.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Politics is for big boys, and the game has been played the same way for thousands of years. If you don't want to accept the rules of the game, don't play. What's funny is that as political attacks go these are extremely mild in terms of sleaziness. You'll see much worse as the election goes on. As for this information in particular, when someone is running on their fiscal credentials their finances seem directly relevant.

And finally, complaints from the Romney camp about sleazy or dishonest attacks is pretty hilarious considering the attacks he's made against Obama. He's just whining because he's losing.

Then you agree then that all this is really about is that Dems want more ammo to smear Romney with sleazy attack ads. Glad we cleared that up.

 

[fskimospy]

Then you agree then that all this is really about is that Dems want more ammo to smear Romney with sleazy attack ads. Glad we cleared that up.

Of course I don't agree with that, we've already been over this. Of course the Democrats want this for attack ads, some of which will undoubtedly be sleazy. Regardless of what the Democrats want this for, the information is relevant to Romney's policy posture and so all people should want it released.

You tried this tack before, it's no better this time. The relevance of information is not related to who is asking for it. I'm sure that your opposition is simply based on your desire for purer American politics and a respect for Romney's financial privacy though. A truly commendable position to take.

 

[Bowfinger]

My personal theory is that Romney is actually under pressure from within the GOP not to release his returns. My guess is that what is in there would be much more damaging to the overall Republican agenda than to Romney personally. It is more a concern that the Democrats will use this as evidence that taxes need to be raised on the rich than that it will harm Romney's election chances. And avoiding giving the Democrats that weapon is more important to them than Romney winning anyway (especially since they probably know he's not going to, regardless.)

That's a really good point. The common theme from the right is that taxes on the "rich" are already too high. We see complaints about how they already pay the most, and that any increases are punitive, punishing success, etc. That talking point would be greatly undermined if Romney's returns show his taxes were actually quite low, relatively speaking. It could also draw public attention to the sorts of tactics and loopholes the wealthy use to avoid taxes. Though such tactics may be legal today, sufficient public pressure could change this.

But this is only speculative, of course.

 

[blankslate]

Then we both understand what this is about...Dems want more ammo to smear Romney with sleazy attack ads. Makes one proud to be a Democrat I imagine.

Then you must agree that the reason Governor Romney's campaign is willing to take heavy hits over his tax returns is that there is something in them that while probably not illegal will be very unappealing to middle of the road voters.

Makes one proud to defend someone who's bucking a trend partially started by his very own father eh?

So much for transparency...

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Then you must agree that the reason Governor Romney's campaign is willing to take heavy hits over his tax returns is that there is something in them that while probably not illegal will be very unappealing to middle of the road voters.

Makes one proud to defend someone who's bucking a trend partially started by his very own father eh?

So much for transparency...

So...you're a big fan of transparency? Then you must be beside yourself with grievous disappointment. You have my sympathies.

 

[techs]

What if Tricky Mitt invested in a string of for profit abortion clinics?

 

[blankslate]

So...you're a big fan of transparency? Then you must be beside yourself with grievous disappointment. You have my sympathies.

As you have mine. Can't even address the rest of the point... you just resort to pithy talking points.

I have no illusions about getting transparency in all things from our Politicians, *however*, releasing tax records to the public is a tradition amongst people who run for office.

Again to reiterate since you seem to just want to ignore this fact. Governor Romney is ignoring an example set by his father who did release more than a paltry one (soon to be two) tax returns.

 

[zinfamous]

Do you pay more that what you're required to pay by law?

Does Obama pay more that what he's required to pay by law?

Should Romney to be castigated for not paying more than what's required by law?

the point, DSF, is that very many people think those laws are shit. This is the major dividing line amongst political parties, is it not?

the point, DSF, is that this election hinges on whether those laws are good, or not good for the economy. It is quite possible that Mitt's tax returns provide strong evidence for at least one side of the argument.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

As you have mine. Can't even address the rest of the point... you just resort to pithy talking points.

I have no illusions about getting transparency in all things from our Politicians, *however*, releasing tax records to the public is a tradition amongst people who run for office.

Again to reiterate since you seem to just want to ignore this fact. Governor Romney is ignoring an example set by his father who did release more than a paltry one (soon to be two) tax returns.

You're the one who brought up the "pithy talking point" of transparency. If you don't wish me to address your pithy talking points, then perhaps you should avoid using them in the first place. Just a thought. BTW, I share your bitter disappointment. :biggrin:

Anyway, as for the rest of your post...I've already stated my opinion quite clearly. However, if following tradition is the crux of your concern, please note that in the 2008 race, McCain also released two years of tax returns. Romney is following tradition after all. This must be a great relief to you!

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

the point, DSF, is that very many people think those laws are shit. This is the major dividing line amongst political parties, is it not?

the point, DSF, is that this election hinges on whether those laws are good, or not good for the economy. It is quite possible that Mitt's tax returns provide strong evidence for at least one side of the argument.

I agree that the tax laws need to be reformed. However, please tell me...if Dems are so concerned about our tax laws, why didn't they do anything to change these laws when they had control of the House/Senate/Presidency for 2 years?

The point of this witch hunt is to smear Romney purely for political purposes...you're kidding yourself if you believe otherwise imo.

 

[blankslate]

Anyway, as for the rest of your post...I've already stated my opinion quite clearly. However, if following tradition is the crux of your concern, please note that in the 2008 race, McCain also released two years of tax returns. Romney is following tradition after all. This must be a great relief to you!

Yeah the tradition of the double standard in regards to candidates....

But but President Obama's college records!!!

Governor Romney's tax returns? Witchhunt.

As for your opinion... I'm still trying to wipe it off the bottom of my soles.

 

[BD2003]

I agree that the tax laws need to be reformed. However, please tell me...if Dems are so concerned about our tax laws, why didn't they do anything to change these laws when they had control of the House/Senate/Presidency for 2 years?

Democrats wont solve the problem, but Repubs will make it worse.

Obama is actively campaigning on raising taxes on the wealthy, Romney is campaigning on lowering them further. The polling is clear on how the public feels about this particular issue.

 

[techs]

I agree that the tax laws need to be reformed. However, please tell me...if Dems are so concerned about our tax laws, why didn't they do anything to change these laws when they had control of the House/Senate/Presidency for 2 years?

The point of this witch hunt is to smear Romney purely for political purposes...you're kidding yourself if you believe otherwise imo.

Actually it was only for 4 months.

 

[blankslate]

I agree that the tax laws need to be reformed. However, please tell me...if Dems are so concerned about our tax laws, why didn't they do anything to change these laws when they had control of the House/Senate/Presidency for 2 years?

Fail talking point. It wasn't a full two years because Senator Franken wasn't seated until June of 2009. Yes it's easy to forget if it's convenient to your talking point I guess but that 60th vote didn't come into play until about 1/2 the year was gone.

Then Senator Kennedy fell ill later in the same year. So he wasn't always present to vote.

Not to mention the fact that it was hard enough to keep moderate and relatively conservative members of the Democratic Party from voting with the party in general.

Moderates... too bad they're pretty rare in the other party these days huh?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Yeah the tradition of the double standard in regards to candidates....

The double standard is all you...Romney is following McCain's tradition.

But but President Obama's college records!!!

Witchhunt...no difference.

Governor Romney's tax returns? Witchhunt.

Yep.

As for your opinion... I'm still trying to wipe it off the bottom of my soles.

Then you should try to be a little smarter next time and not step in it. No skin off my back.